Renewable energy use in industrial within the [email protected] Title Slide 1 Author DENNEHY Emer, IEA/SPT/ETP/EDT Created Date 5/12/2015 8:34:18 AM ...

© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015

Renewable energy use in industrial within the 2DS

Workshop on Renewables for Industrial sectors

Paris, 11 May 2015

Araceli Fernandez

© OECD/IEA 2015

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2012 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mt

CO

2

6DS

4DS

2DS

Global industrial direct CO2 emissions and final energy use

NOTE: Direct energy related and process CO2 emissions from the industrial sector are included

NOTES: Industrial final energy excludes energy embedded in petrochemical feedstock. Bio & Waste also includes other renewable sources apart from biomass.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050

World OECD Developing Asia

EJ

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050

Non-OECD America Economies inTransition

Africa Middle East

EJ

Bio&Waste

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

© OECD/IEA 2015

ETP Energy System Model

ETP INDUSTRY MODEL:

Based on Excel

Bottom-up simulation model

Focus on long-term technology options

39 regions

Time horizon up to 2050 (5yr time steps)

• Iron & Steel

• Cement

• Chemicals & Petrochemicals

• Pulp & Paper

• Aluminium

© OECD/IEA 2015

6DS

ETP Industry Model conversion process

IRON & STEEL

CEMENT 2014

CHEMICALS & PETROCHEMICALS

ALUMINIUM

2015

PULP & PAPER 2016

PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS ETP INDUSTRY MODEL:

ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIO

CAPACITY STOCK TURN-OVER

FUEL MIX USE PROJECTION

CO2 EMISSION CALCULATION

MODEL CONVERSION

2DS

4DS

EXCEL BASED

BOTTOM-UP TECHNOLOGY RICH

SIMULATION MODEL

TIMES BASED

BOTTOM-UP TECHNOLOGY RICH

OPTIMISATION MODEL

Enables meeting a demanded production through the least-cost technology pathway for a given set of constraints.

Structural improvements:

More detailed representation of innovative processes

Better integration with ETP TIMES Supply model

Enhanced economic assessments

Improved assessment of local contexts impact

ENERGY PRICES

TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTS

CO2 MAXIMUM EMISSIONS

FEEDSTOCK AVAILABILITY

© OECD/IEA 2015

COKE OVEN

SINTERING

PELLETISING

BLAST FURNACE

DIRECT REDUCED IRON

BASIC OXYGEN FURNACE

SMELTING REDUCTION

ELECTRIC ARC FURNACE

CONTINUOUS CASTING

COLD ROLLING

HOT ROLLING

NEAR SHAPE CASTING/ROLLING

Crude

Steel

Elec.

Coke

Fuel

Raw

material

preparation

Iron making Steel

making

Steel casting and

finishing

Iron

ore

Sinter

Pellets

Scrap

Hot

metal

DRI

Liquid

steel

Casted

steel

Direct CO2

emissions

ETP Times Iron & Steel model scope

NOTE: Only a high level technology structure model representation is displayed in this slide. Each module can be broken down into a group of technology options

© OECD/IEA 2015

Coal 28%

Oil 11%

Gas 19%

Electricity 29%

Heat 4%

Bio&Waste 9%

Global industrial final energy use mix

NOTES: In this presentation,

• Industrial final energy excludes energy embedded in petrochemical feedstock.

• Bio & Waste also includes other renewable sources apart from biomass.

Coal 36%

Oil 11%

Gas 18%

Electricity 24%

Heat 4%

Bio&Waste 7%

2012

6DS: 2050

2DS: 2050

Coal 22%

Oil 9%

Gas 15%

Electricity

33%

Heat 4%

Bio&Waste

17%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pchem feedstock

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pchem feedstock

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pchem feedstock

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

© OECD/IEA 2015

33%

6%

8%

36%

3% 14% 13%

12%

21% 34%

3% 17%

56%

8%

5%

24%

3% 4%

Coal 36%

Oil 11%

Gas 18%

Electricity 24%

Heat 4%

Bio&Waste 7%

2012

19%

12%

29% 29%

3% 8%

10%

14%

16%

24% 1%

35% 3%

20%

42%

29% 1%

5%

Industrial final energy use mix

WORLD

OECD

Non-OECD America

OECD

Non-OECD America

Developing Asia Developing Asia

Middle East Middle East

Coal 22%

Oil 9%

Gas 15%

Electricity

33%

Heat 4%

Bio&Waste

17%

2DS: 2050

9%

23%

20% 20%

28%

2%

27% 60%

11%

© OECD/IEA 2015

Iron & Steel sector: Renewable main options

Charcoal based Blast Furnaces

Electric Arc Furnaces based on renewable electricity

Iron ore reduction supported with hydrogen from renewable sources

Renewable based captive utilities

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2012 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Energy efficiency

Natural gas - DRI

Recycling (increased scrap use)

Innovative processes

Direct CO2 emission savings 2DS vs 6DS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050

World OECD Developing Asia Non-OECD America Economies inTransition

Africa Middle East

Biomass&Waste

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

© OECD/IEA 2015

Cement sector: Renewable main options

Fuel switching


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2012 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Energy efficiency

Fuel switching

Clinker substitutes

Innovative processes

Direct CO2 emission savings 2DS vs 6DS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050


Africa Middle East

Biomass&Waste

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

© OECD/IEA 2015

Chemicals/Petrochemicals sector: Renewable main options

Biomass based routes for olefins production (e.g. bioethanol route, MTO route)

Biomass based routes for ammonia and methanol production

Ammonia and methanol productions supported by renewable based hydrogen


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050


Africa Middle East

Biomass&Waste

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050


Africa Middle East

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

Final energy use mix in Chemicals/Petrochemicals sector (excl. feedstocks)

Petrochemicals feedstocks mix

© OECD/IEA 2015

Pulp & Paper sector: Renewable main options

Bio-refinery developments: biomass based routes for chemicals and fuels production


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050 2012 2DS: 2050


Africa Middle East

Biomass&Waste

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

© OECD/IEA 2015

Non-energy intensive industrial sector: Renewable main options

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2020 2030 2040 2050

g C

O2

/kW

h

6DS

4DS

2DS

Industrial operations based on renewable electricity

Renewable based captive utilities (e.g. opportunities for solar thermal for lower temperature heat demand applications and possible upgrade through heat pumps)

© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015

Thanks!

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Renewable energy use in industrial within the [email protected] Title Slide 1 Author DENNEHY Emer, IEA/SPT/ETP/EDT Created Date 5/12/2015 8:34:18 AM ...

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