RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALS Projections to 2050

RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALS

Projections to 2050

BASED ON THE PRESENTATION ofMohamed El-Ashry Chairman REN 21

3rd Ministerial Meeting in Gleneagles Dialogue, Berlin, September 10, 2007

main questions concerning medium/long term trends

RENEWABLE ENERGY A) What opportunities do renewable energy

technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term?

B) Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?

C) What will be the driving force of a clean technology revolution based on RET?

A) OPPORTUNITIES Very high potential overall — no resource constraint.

Markets

• RET could satisfy global electricity and heat demand.

• Technical potential of bioenergy is not sufficient to displace fossil fuels entirely in the transport sector.

• Share of RET is dependent on demands (peak / background or continuous supply)

What opportunities do renewable energy technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term?

A) OPPORTUNITIES (CONTD.)

Regions

• Sufficient renewable energy resource potential in every region is naturally present.

• Some regions are rich in specific resource: HYDROPOWER in AsiaBIOMASS crops in eastern Europe and the former

Soviet UnionONSHORE WIND in North AmericaSOLAR(CSP&PV) in Africa and the Middle EastGEOTHERMAL in Asia and Latin AmericaOCEAN POWER in Asia, North America, and Oceania

What opportunities do renewable energy technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term?

HYDRO

Hoover Dam (USA, Nevada)2080 MW = ~2GW (1931-36)4.2 GWh / year

Three Gorges Dam (China, )22500 MW (1994-2008!) 80 -100 000 GWh/year (~100TWh)

HYDRO

Three Gorges Dam (China)22500 mW (1994-2008!) 80 -100 000 GWh/year (~100TWh)

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT (+/-):NEG Changing landscapePOS According to the National Development and Reform Commission of China, 366 grams of coal would produce 1 kWh of electricity during 2006.

At full power, Three Gorges Dam:- Reduces coal consumption by 31 Mt/yAvoiding:- 100 Mt greenhouse gas emissions,- millions of tonnes of dust,- 1 Mt of sulfur dioxide, - 370,000 tonnes of nitric oxide,- 10,000 tonnes of carbon monoxide,- and a significant amount of mercury.

Hydropower saves the energy needed to mine, wash, and transport the coal from northern China.

Solucar PS10 is the first solar thermal power plant based on tower in the world that generate electric)

CSP concentratig solar power S20 and PS10 in Andalusia, Spain SOLAR

PS20 and PS10 in Andalusia, Spain SOLAR

Svartsengi Power Station150mW geothermal capacity76mW installed (start 1976)

Nesjavellir Power Station300mW geothermal capacity120mW installed (start 1990)

ICELANDOn >1150mW thermal capacity,~580mW installed up to 2010

150mW / 76mW: 1976150mW / 60mW: 1977300mW / 120mW: 1990150mW / 100mW: 2006400mW / 213mW: 2010

Geothermal power plantin Reykjavik, Iceland

GEOTHERMAL

WIND POWER

Wind power installed in Europe by end of 2010

WIND

According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) report of February 2011,

-there are over 12,000 wind turbines in Europe

-with a total capacity of 84 GW.

-The European Union accounts for over 98% of that total.

-In 2010, €12.7 billion was invested in EU wind farms and

- 9.3 GW of new power capacity was installed.

-9.1% of the total energy capacity of the EU now comes from wind, up from just 2.2% in 2000.

-In a normal wind year, 5.3% of the EU's electricity is produced from wind power.

-As of January 2011, offshore wind farms account for approximately 3.5% of capacity.

-There are 1,136 offshore turbines installed, totalling 2.9GW in 45 wind farms in 9 countries.

WIND POWER

WIND

According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) report of February 2011,

WIND POWER

The EWEA estimates that 230GW of wind capacity will be installed in Europe by 2020, (190GW onshore + 40GW offshore.

This would produce 14-17% of the EU's electricity, avoiding 333 million tonnes of CO2 per year and saving Europe €28 billion a year in avoided fuel costs.

WIND

Wind power today, in an average wind year, generates the equivalent of

- over 20% of Denmark’s electricity use

-25–30% of that in three German Länder,

-and on windy days with light loads, over 100% of the load in certain regions, particularly in West Denmark, North Germany, and northern Spain.

WIND POWER

EXAMPLE of DANISH WIND POWER PLANTS see in separate slides!

B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 Electricity

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hydro wind biomass PV CSP geothermal ocean energy

Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?

B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 (CONTD.)

Heating and Cooling

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biomass solar geothermal

Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?

Transport Fuels

B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 (CONTD.)

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biofuels

Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term?

$70.9bn

$49.6bn

$27.5bn

2004 2005 2006

GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY2004 - 2006

80% Growth

43% Growth

Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals. New investment only. Source: New Energy Finance

What will be the driving force of a clean technology revolution based on RET?

C) DRIVERS FOR A RET REVOLUTION

Costs (of production & installing & maintain)

Capital (investments , since produciton „good

deal”)

Climate safe technology (Mte CO2, against

non-renewables)

What will be the driving force of a clean technology revolution based on RET?