RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRY OVERVIEW · 2017-05-19 · RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Aaron Bonanno and Chris Martell. ... upper limit on wind energy, but this is not expected to

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RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRY

OVERVIEW

Aaron Bonanno and Chris Martell

creating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/Lcreating sustainable change through education, communication and leadership © 2014 GSES P/L

- Official Australian Registered Training Organisation (RTO)

- Face to face practical and online training

- Grid Connect PV (GCPV), Stand-Alone, GC with Batteries, Solar Fundamentals, etc.

- System testing and commissioning

- Tender specification and evaluation

- System compliance inspections for the Clean Energy Regulator and private business

- Grid Connected PV, Stand-Alone PV and hybrid system design

- Feasibility studies

- DNSP liaison for Grid Connected systems

- Grid Connected PV Systems Design and Installation

- Stand Alone Power Systems Design and Installation

- News releases, Technical Articles and much more.

COMPANY PROFILE

Established in 1998, GSES® leads Australia in renewable energy engineering, training and consultancy.


CONTENTS

• Status of the Renewable Energy Sector• Australia

• Global

• Current Industry Direction• Policy

• Economic Drivers

• Disruptive Technology

• What is the Future of the Industry• New Technology

• New Energy Markets


Current Consumption In Relatable Terms: 80Gj/person/year ~= 60kWh/person/day ~= 390TWh Globally/day (2010 figures) which is roughly the same amount of energy needed to fly from Sydney to LA 100,000 times (…on an A380)

United Nations World Human Population Estimated Global Energy Consumption Per Capita

INTRODUCTION


RENEWABLE ENERGY AUSTRALIA

As of 2013 there were 394 registered large scale generation systems in Australia: • 101 Hydro• 78 Wind• 68 Solar• 62 Landfill Gas• 85 Other

Large Scale Generating Power Stations

Large Scale Energy GenerationAs of 2013, large scale renewables have accounted for approximately 17 TWh of energy production. This equates to about 8% of all electricity produced in Australia according to the Australian Energy Regulator

*Clean Energy Regulator



Small Scale Installations

Estimated Generation and Displacement



As of 2013 there were 2M registered small scale installations in Australia

As of 2013, energy efficient hot water displaced about 2.5 TWh of energy and small scale renewables generated about 4TWh of energy. In total, small scale generation/displacement equates to about 3% of all electricity produced in Australia according to the Australian Energy Regulator




*Sustainable Energy Development Authority of NSW

Government Policy – The Renewable Energy Target and emissions reduction target are expected to drive the development of wind power in Australia

Resource – Australia has some of the best wind resource in the world, however much of it is localised in the western, south western, southern and south eastern coastal areas

Grid Constraints – lack of capacity or availability may limit further growth of wind in some areas with good wind resource

Variability – intermittency imposes an inherent upper limit on wind energy, but this is not expected to be reached until the projected 2030 penetration level

Wind Power


- 2009 Wind Penetration level was 4TWh representing 1.5% of total electricity generation

- Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics has projected a total penetration of 44TWh by 2030 which would represent 12.1% of total forecast electricity generation


Wind Power

*Capital Wind Farm (Lake George, NSW)


- Currently the main source of renewable energy generation in Australia

- 2008 Hydro Penetration level was 12TWh representing 4.5% of total electricity generation

- Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics has projected that hydro will only increase by 0.2%/pa over the next 20 years to 13TWh

*ABARE


Hydro Power



Hydro Power

- According to Geoscience Australia the majority of Australia's economically feasible hydro energy resource has already been harnessed.

- Through the use of micro-hydro and pumping stations, capacity can be increased, however as Australia is the driest inhabited continent on Earth other RE technology must be used.

- Wind it set to take over hydro as the main renewable energy generator in the next 20 years

*Snowy Hydro



Solar PV Power

- Enough solar irradiation falls on Australia each year to satisfy 10,000 times its annual energy demand

- ABARE predicted in 2008 that annual generation would reach 4TWh by 2030, however 4TWh were generated from PV this year

- Cost competitiveness and industry maturity combined with policy incentives, falling demand and increased utility tariff rates have rocketed the industry forward.

- As an indicator of price reduction, global average module price has fallen by 80% since 2009 ($3.25/watt in 2009 to $0.65/watt in 2013)

*Australian Bureau of Meteorology


*Greenough River Solar Farm


Solar PV Power

- As Australia has removed its renewable energy incentives (State Feed in Tariffs (FIT) and Renewable Energy Credit (REC now called STC/LGC) multiplier the market has shifted towards commercial and utility

- Fiscal year 2013 saw the flattening of the residential sector. Commercial/Utility accounted for about 5% of the market prior to 2012 compared to about 20% this year.

- Continuing trends and the emergence of energy storage should keep the PV market healthy into the next decade


• Kogan – 44MW compact linear Fresnel reflector (CLFR) due to be complete end of 2014

• Mildura 1.5MW-stage 2, plans for 100MW stage three

• 50% residential solar hot water - 50% space heating, swimming pools, commercial

Market Share:• NSW – 30%• WA – 26%• QLD – 19%


(Source: Australian Energy Resource Assessment 2013)

Solar Thermal



*Australian Geothermal Energy Association

- Birdville 80kW Geothermal Power Station owned by Ergon

- New project in Cooper Basin, SA by Geodynamics Ltd.

- Good potential in select areas

Geothermal Power

- Tamala Park and Red Hill, WA amongst the few active power generating landfills (combined 9MW)

- Other projects in the pipeline but limited by location and resource

- Very low Levelised Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) generation

Landfill Gas Power

*Ecogeneration – Ti Tree LGPWave/Tidal Power

- Perth Wave Energy by Carnegie will be the worlds fist grid connected commercial scale wave power system

- Applications for desalinated water and power for remote communities

- Pilot project for other types of wave power

*Australian Renewable Energy Agency


*Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics



*Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics



*REN21 (Renewables 2014 Global Status Report)

RENEWABLE ENERGY GLOBAL

- Solar PV is the most ubiquitous and active sector and still only represents 0.7% of energy consumption


*Global Wind Energy Council

- Wind power has been increasing at a relatively steady rate over the past two decades

- It is interesting to note that 2013 was the first year that there was not an increase in the capacity of wind generation installed above the year before it

- The decline however is mostly due to US policy which encouraged a record number of installations in 2012. Despite the decline in growth, industry experts are still bullish on wind.


Wind Power


*Hydro and Dams World Atlas 2012

- Unlike Australia, the rest of the world is only using approximately 30% of its total Hydro Power potential

- China and the rest of Asia account for nearly 60% of all hydro potential


Hydro Power


*IEA-PVPS T1-22:2013


- The global Solar PV market has doubled six times since 2004

- Australia has largely followed the trend but is still outpaced by many other markets

Solar PV Power



Looking at a solar start up? India and Greece are developing markets

(Source: REN21 2013)

Solar Thermal


*Energex

RENEWABLE ENERGY CHALLENGES

*Stanford University - The energetic implications of curtailing versus storing solar- and wind-generated electricity

- The “Duck Curve” has been experienced by utilities around the globe. The new demand curve can cause issues with grid protection equipment and grid quality. Energex (and others) are now limiting solar installations by demanding non-export systems and even denying grid connection in some areas

- Solar as well as other types of renewables are intermittent generators and can greatly disrupt the existing electrical infrastructure….This creates an amazing opportunity


*California ISO

RENEWABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES

- The economics that have driven the surge of renewables will now continue to drive the creation of a truly smart grid

- Grid communications, distributed and diverse generation/storage and dynamic demand control will lead to a cheap and reliable future grid system


What do all these have in common?


Current Australian Policy and Policy Trends

LRET: 20% by 2020 – 41850GWhSRES: Uncapped

Emissions Reduction Fund - $1.55 to $2.55 Billion – Review in 2015

Emissions Reduction Target – Real 5% to 20% by 2020

(Source: Emissions Reduction Fund White Paper)

FiT – All states reduced to 8-20c/kWh depending on state and retailer.


Current International Policy and Policy Trends

• 6.15TWh of energy generation and shift to gas and RE

(Source: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

China


Goals of Ministry of New and Renewable Energy:• 10GW by 2017• 22GW by 2022• One solar light in every home by 2019


(Source: Central Energy Authority India)

India



The EU Energy Policy Target for 2020 is:• 20% Renewable Energy• 20% GHG Reduction• 20% in Energy Efficiency

(Source: Eurostat)

European Union



• EPA – Labelled CO2 as an air pollutant this has given President:• 30% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030• DoE target to reduce cost of solar to $0.06/kWh by 2020

(Source: DBEDT Hawaii State Energy Office)

Hawaii – 2009 : RE target of 40% by 2030 and 30% in EE:• Large Penetrations of RE in

Grid.• The Public Utility Commission

is regulating the local utility to adopt distributed generation philosophies

United States of America





Current Markets and Economic Drivers of Renewable Energy Technology



Current Investment in RE Technology



Australian and International Market Trends and Prices – Solar Power

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Typical Price Balance of System price

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Typical PV module price Lowest module price

(Source: APVI 2013)

Category Typical Applications Current price$/W

Off-Grid > 1kW Telecommunications, mining, remote homes

5 – 15

Residential Grid-Connected system up to 10kW

Residential 2.5 – 3.5

Grid-connected Rooftop from 10 to 250 kW (commercial)

Commercial Rooftops 2 – 4

Grid-connected Rooftop above 250kW (industrial)

Large Rooftops 2 – 4

Grid-connected Ground mounted above 1 MW

Solar Farms 1.5 – 2.5

Australia:0.8GW installed in 2013Over One million solar homes in 2014

International:43GW manufactured in 2013Cheapest module is $0.5/W


Australian and International Market Trends and Prices – Wind Energy


Australia:• Total wind capacity is 3.2GW as of 2013• 14 New projects totalling 1.86GW in 2013-2014


Australian and International Market Trends and Prices – Wind Energy


International:• 35GW added in 2013• Asia is the largest market• Europe offshore wind makes up

34% European sales


Australian and International Market Trends and Prices –Bioenergy


Australia:• Sugercane industry is self sufficient by

using cogeneration of Bagasse• Ethanol production – 440ML• Biodiesel production – 305ML• Limited by low cost feed stocks• Electricity generation 0.9% total• Ingham 80-85MW plant 200000L ethanol

International:• 7% increase in transport• USA become largest producer

corn ethanol• Research is ongoing into fuel

from Algae



Global Solar Industry grew 20% in 2013EU skills shortage in 78% companies

The Renewable Energy Industry - Jobs


Australian Electricity Market Perspective – NEM

(Source: WattClarity NEM Watch 2014)


0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Pri

ce (

$/M

Wh

)

De

man

d (

MW

)

Sorted demand and price, QLD 2010

Demand 100 per. Mov. Avg. (Price)

Australian Electricity Market Perspective – Utilities

(Source: NEM 2010)


(Source: Ultrabattery)

• Combination of VRLA and

Ultra-capacitor technology

mitigates degradation from

sulfation

• Just announced they are

moving into the domestic

space

Disruptive Technology – Batteries and RE


(Source: ABB Ltd.)

• Complete grid support

system

• Control

• Substation

• Diesel Gen Set

• Lithium Batteries

Disruptive Technology – Utility Scale Batteries


• 105kW

• 99.2kWh

• Lithium Ion battery

• Outdoor enclosure

• Direct PV connection

• Has the ability to communicate

with utilities, and participate in

demand response and

aggregated dispatch

(Source: Green Charge Networks)

Disruptive Technology – Commercial Scale Batteries


(Source: Bosch GmbH)

• Lithium iron phosphate

• DC bus system 5kW input

4.4-13.2kWh storage

• Claim 15 yrs (~5500

cycles) at 70%DOD

Disruptive Technology – Residential Scale Batteries


(Source: Rocky Mountain Institute)

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.45

$0.50

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

LCO

E $

/kw

h

Year

Levelised Cost of Electricity

Solar Solar with Lead Acid Utility Solar with Lithium Battery

Energy Storage Cost Competitiveness


CSE – 2.1c/kWh

Disruptive Technology – Energy Efficiency

(Source: Berkeley Labs LBNL 2014)

(Source: Pitt&Sherry 2013)


Germany:• Aldel – Al manufacture filed

for bankruptcy• Bloomberg – Whole sale price

dropped 1.5c/kWh since 2009 6% reduction

• BASF – Chemical company invests $10B

Impacts on Existing Australian Industries

(Source: Bloomberg and HSBC 2014)

Germany

China

India

Apple Inc.

RWE

Asia Pacific Bank

IPCC


Syngas is used in the Fischer-Tropschprocess to make liquid fuels. The Swiss University ETH Zurich have improved the processes and are reporting efficiencies of 1.73%. Commercial cost competiveness is 15%, which if reached could see as much as 20 litres a day from a 1m2 reactor.

Solar Reactor uses energy from the sun, water and carbon dioxide scrubbed from the air to generate Syngas.

Future Technology – Solar Reactor

(Source: ETH Solar Reactor)


Future Technology – Molten Salt and Water Solar Thermal Power Stations

(Source: CSIRO and Abengoa)

CSIRO sets world record for super critical steam created using solar concentrating power.

Abengoa expects concentrating solar power to be cost competitive with GCC.


Future Technology – High Efficiency Solar Cells

(Source: NREL 2014)


Wave Power

- Perth Wave Energy by Carnegie will be the worlds fist grid connected commercial scale wave power system

- Applications for desalinated water and power for remote communities

- Pilot project for other types of wave power

Future Technology –Wave Energy

(Source: Carnegie)


(Source: CSIRO 2014)

Future Markets – Electricity Markets - CSIRO


(Source: Reneweconomy)

Future Markets – Municipality and Community Utilities

Case Study – Feldheim:• Individual installs 1st wind turbine

in 1995 to cover agricultural market drops.

• 74.1MW Wind Farm established.• 2700MWh/year Solar Farm

constructed• 400kW Biomass furnace• Biogas Reactor

In 2010 the town purchased their own smart electricity mini-grid as the network operator was not willing to sell and became their own utility. As a result the town now pays 31% less for electricity and 10% less for heat and the remaining energy is sold to surrounding towns.


(Source: Powershop)

Future Markets – Value Added and Pre-paid Electricity Providers


(Source: NEST and Savant)

Future Markets – Smart Homes


• In a similar way to how the market currently operates, retailers can now install intermittent (PV) and generation and dispatchable generation where it will be consumed.

• Some load will be serviced by the grid, some by the PV, and the remainder by the battery storage. Batteries can also be charged during off peak times when the price of energy is low.

• Consumers still pay a connection fee and fixed tariff for their energy

Future Markets – Gentailor


Future Markets – Behind the Meter

RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRY OVERVIEW · 2017-05-19 · RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Aaron Bonanno and Chris Martell. ... upper limit on wind energy, but this is not expected to

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