by Grzegorz WIŚNIEWSKI Institute for Renewable Energy (EC BREC IEO) Warsaw-Gdansk, Poland [email protected]Renewable energy development in Poland status for ‘2006 and forecast for 2020 Data gathering on renewable energies for New EU Member States and Candidate Countries Workshop organised by: EC Joint Research Centre- Institute for Environment and Sustainability with the support of Faculty of Engineering, Marmara University Istanbul, Turkey, 12-15 November ‘2007 Starting point after EU enlargement: General economic and sustainability indicators for Poland’2004 as percentage of EU 25 ‘2003 or factor EU25/PL factor 2,40 1,2 0,5 Expected production/share of biofuels ‘2005 (%)/(factor EU25/PL)) factor 6,35 12,7 2,0 Share of green electricity cons. (%)/(factor EU25/PL) factor 3,10 209,9 650,1 Energy intensity, (kg of oe/1000€ GDP)/(factor EU25/PL) 0,70 169 1,2 Expenditure on research (bln €) 7,00 196 772 13 782 Employment (mln) 2,10 9 599 202 GDP (bln €) 8,46 451 864 38 231 Population (mln) % or factor „EU 25” Poland
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Renewable energy development in Poland status for ‘2006 and forecast for 2020
Data gathering on renewable energies for New EU Member States and Candidate Countries
Workshop organised by:EC Joint Research Centre- Institute for Environment and Sustainability
with the support of Faculty of Engineering, Marmara University
Istanbul, Turkey, 12-15 November ‘2007
Starting point after EU enlargement:General economic and sustainability indicators for Poland’2004
as percentage of EU 25 ‘2003 or factor EU25/PL
factor 2,401,20,5Expected production/share of biofuels ‘2005 (%)/(factor EU25/PL))
factor 6,3512,72,0Share of green electricity cons. (%)/(factor EU25/PL)
factor 3,10209,9650,1Energy intensity, (kg of oe/1000€GDP)/(factor EU25/PL)
0,701691,2Expenditure on research (bln €)
7,00196 77213 782Employment (mln)
2,109 599202GDP (bln €)
8,46451 86438 231Population (mln)
% or factor„EU 25”Poland
Technical potential of RES in PolandEC BREC ‘2004
100,01750Total
25,4445Solar
16,1281Wind
12,6220Geothermal
2,849Hydro
43,1755Biomass
Share by resources [%]
Technical potential [PJ/rok]Resources
Structure and trends of RES production
Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Poland
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
179 991
167
1
10
100
1 000
10 000
100 000
1 000 000
Solar energy
Wind energy
Geothermal energy
Biogas
Biofuels
Hydro energy
Biomas
Logarithmic scale
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
Decimal scale
Source: EC BREC IEO
Structure of primary energy use in 2005
Gas13%
Oil21%
RES5%
Lignite11%
Hard coal50%
Waste water treatment plant biogas
0,8%
Biomass - district heating
2,9%
Landfill biogas0,3%
Biomass - electricity6,5%
Animal origin biogas0,1%
Hydro4,3%
Biomass - local heat83,8%
Wind0,3%
Biodiesel0,3%
Ethanol0,7%
Others6,8%
Primary energy use – 3932 PJ,within 187 PJ (4,76%) from RES
Structure of renewable energy sources in 2005
Primary production of solid biomass in TJSouces: EC BREC IEO for EUObserv’ER
570500-Animal wastes ( bones mills)
1 7001 500-Straw combustion
2 2702 000Other Vegetal Materials and Waste, of which:
60 00058 000Wood Waste
13001000Short rotation coppice
7 9807 300Wood pellet
108 450106 700Wood (logs,…)
180 000175 000Wood/Wood Waste/Other Solid Waste of which
20062005
Electricity from RESElectricity from RES in 2006in 2006
Wind6%
Hydro48%
Biomass & biogas
46%
Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Poland
RES support schemes development
Increase of the quota obligation from 9% in 2010 to 10,4% (compliance with EU 2001/77/EC directive).
2007
Obligation to achieve quota (7,5%) and to prove it (CoO) for electricity suppliers and producers (TPA) , introduction of CoO (TGC) trade; penalty followed by voluntary charge for non-compliance (240 PL/MWh); biomass co-firing as eligible RET-E but demand for increasing of biomass use from energy crops and wastes by 2014; increased quota (from 7,5 do 9% in 2010), distribution companies obliged to buy “physical” green electricity by the market price of “black” electricity
20052006
Obligation to achieve quota (7,5%) and to prove it (CoO) for electricity suppliers and producers (TPA) , penalty defined 30%, introduction of biomass co-firing as eligible RET-E
20032004
Obligation to achieve quota (7,5%) and to prove origin of electricity for suppliers and distribution companies, no strict penalty defined
2002
Quota obligation (7,5% in final sale balance) for electricity suppliers and distribution companies, no strict penalty
2001
Feed in tariffs, obligation for utilities to buy green electricity from sources <5MW, price same as for final consumers
2000
Quota obligation +TG
CQ
uota obligationFeed-in tariff
INVESTM
ENT SUPPO
RTThe TGC system in Poland, since 2006
-income for independent power producers
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
300,00
350,00
400,00
Electricity price (yearlymean balancing market
price, in 2006 31,5Euro/MWh)
CoO price - marketrelated
Total income of RESowner
Pric
e [E
uro/
MW
h]
Substitute fee, in 2006 64 Euro/MWh
Penalty, 130% of substitute fee
+ =
110
95
80
65
55
40
27
15
0
Comparison of green energy prices for utilities with final black electricity prices for wholesale market and with electricity for households and industry
Average income from green electricity supply to the grid
Economics of green electricity production in ‘2005 (source: EP)
185318200118106239133Biomass co-firing(2000 MW)
10431820011825239214Biomass CHP(10MW)
813182001182239237Large hydro(100MW)
26318200118-53239292Wind(30MW)
18318200118-39239300SHP < 5MW
Extras, 2004-2005zł/MWh
Total incomezł/MWh
Price of TGC. zł/MWh
Price of electricityzł/MWh
Differencezł/MWh
Mean price zł/MWh
Price
zł/MWh
20052004Type of RES-E
technology
Installed capacity of RES-E
1 548,4
In power-blocks with capacity at about
1700
1082,8176,0
36,8
252,82006 [MW]
Total
Co-firingHydroWindBiogas
BiomassRES
1 307,5
1002,583,331,9
189,82005 [MW]
Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Poland
Electricity generation from RESElectricity generation from RES
4 220 2031 314 337 2 028 984
256 345116 692
503 8462006 [MWh]
TotalCo-firingHydroWindBiogas
BiomassRES
3 760 301877 009
2 175 559135 292104 465
467 9762005 [MWh]
Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Poland
Green electricity production 2000-2005 [ GWh/year], according to changes
in the support schemes
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2000200120022003200420052006
Target for 201012 000 GWh
Current visions for RES-E in ‘2010
MG ‘2005* Updated vision of EC BREC IEO ’2006
• Biomass 4,0% 2,5%
• Hydro 1,2% 2,0%
• Wind 2,3% 2,5%
• Biogas - 0,5%
Total 7,5% 7,5%* Report of the Ministry of Economy MGiP to the European Commission, 31.08.2005
Too slow development of energy plantations and to little time remaining to 2010
Liquid fuels sector in PolandKey figures for ‘2004
Oil refineries: 7 refineries with the capacity 18 mln t of crude oil/year; domestic production of crude oil -4% onlyConcessions of the Energy Regulator (URE) in the oil sector:
• 78- for fuels production, • 122- for fuels storage, • 6488 for fuels distribution
Oil sector (medium and large companies only)gross income: 21 bln PLZ (app. € 5 bln)/yearMajor players; two oil groups: PKN ORLEN (app. 55% of vehicle fuels market), LOTOS Group S.A. (app. 27% of vehicle fuels market) and others: refineries & importers
Final consumption of vehicle fuels in Poland 1995-2006
01,0002,000
3,0004,0005,0006,000
7,0008,0009,000
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Particular years
Usa
ge (k
toe)
Gasoline
Diesel oil
LPG
Production of agriculture distillate (raw spirit) and the usage of bioethanol and the number of open agriculture distilleries (source EC BREC)
Note 1: bio- ethanol from lignocelluloses materials – not considered
Note 2: small scale agro- refineries considered only
National Renewable Energy Strategy ‘2001Overall target: 7,5% RES in TPE in 2010 & 14% in 2020
general note 1: bioenergy technologies marked in greengeneral note 2: large scale hydro excluded from the balance & support
Total share of liquid biofuels: 5%,
bioelectricty: 18% and bio-heat: 72% in
the total green energy and green fuels
production (RES) in ‘2010 (235 000 TJ)
Total bioenergy contribution in RES
generation –95%
=» competition over biomass resources for
heat, electricity and transportation fuels
Note 3: co- firing excluded from financial support
Conclusions1. Poland has considerable bio-resources availability;2. In 2004-2005 Poland improved support scheme for green
electricity, but it is not yet optimised and future bioelectricity/bioheat prospect is unclear
3. Biomass co-firing with coal in power plants is substantially supported and is encouraging farmers for production of energy crops but required better attention for sustainability in the full processing chain
4. Supporting scheme based on quotas/TGC needs active use of others policies and measures (RTD policy, subsidies, tenders or feed-in-tariffs for some RETs) to support small scale (to compensate „TGC privilege” for large scale)
5. Support for transportation biofuels based on a mixture of tax exemption and obligation for blending gives better opportunity for biodiesel development than for traditional bioethanol
6. There is a considerable development of solar thermal, with the support of national environmental funds (subsidies and low interest credits)