REGIONAL ENERGY PLANNING - CCOP · 2 PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY FORECAST 2005 Natural Gas 8% Geothermal 6% Hydropower 5% Biomass, Solar and Wind 30% Coal 10% Oil and Oil Products 41% 2010

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ELIZABETH G. NAVALTAELIZABETH G. NAVALTADirector, Department of EnergyDirector, Department of Energy

2005 Update

Towards Energy Independence &Towards Energy Independence &Power Market ReformsPower Market Reforms

PHILIPPINE ENERGY PLANPHILIPPINE ENERGY PLAN OUTLINE OF PRESENTATIONOUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

Energy Plan FrameworkEnergy Plan FrameworkEnergy Demand and Supply OutlookEnergy Demand and Supply Outlook

Energy Sector AgendaEnergy Sector AgendaEnergy Independence PackageEnergy Independence PackagePower Market ReformsPower Market Reforms

Investment RequirementsInvestment Requirements

ENERGY PLAN ENERGY PLAN FRAMEWORKFRAMEWORK

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYDEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

I. Energy Plan FrameworkII. Energy Demand and Supply

Outlook

ENERGY PLAN FRAMEWORKENERGY PLAN FRAMEWORK

ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND SAVINGS

POWER MARKET REFORMS

ENERGY SECTOR AGENDA

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND JOB CREATION

ANTI-CORRUPTION THROUGH GOOD

GOVERNMENT

ENERGY INDEPENDENCE

SOCIAL JUSTICEAND BASIC NEEDS

EDUCATION AND YOUTH

OPPORTUNITY

FIVEFIVE--POINT REFORM PACKAGEPOINT REFORM PACKAGE

60% SELF-SUFFICIENCY LEVEL BY 2010

FAIR AND REASONABLE ENERGY PRICES IN A COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT

ENERGY SECTOR GOALS

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PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY FORECASTPRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY FORECAST

2005

Natural Gas8%

Geothermal6%

Hydropower5%

Biomass, Solar and Wind

30%

Coal10%

Oil and Oil Products

41%

2010

Natural Gas13%

Geothermal7%

Hydropow er4%

Biomass, Solar and Wind31%

Coal13%

Oil and Oil Products32%

2014

Natural Gas13%

Geothermal6%

Hydropower4%

Biomass, Solar and Wind

30%

Coal15%


32%

Energy Mix

2004

Coal12.3%

Biomass/Solar and

Wind, etc.32.1%


36.8%

Natural Gas6.3%Geothermal

6.8%

Hydro5.6%

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY FORECASTPRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY FORECAST

Imported Oil28.4%

Imported Coal8.0%

Indigeno usEnergy61.5%

Biomass, Solar & Wind

31.5%

Oil3.6%

Coal4.9%

Geothermal6.6%

Hydro4.3%

Imported Gas

2.1%

Gas10.7%

2010

Total: 372.3 MMBFOE

Self-sufficiency : 61.5 %

Indigeno us Energy57 .1%

Oil4.6%Coal3.2%

Biomass, So lar & Wind

30.8%

Geothermal6.3%

Hydro4.6%

Gas7.7%

Imported Oil36.5%

Imported Coal6.4%

2005

Total: 285.8 MMBFOE


Imported Coal7.7%

IndigenousEnergy57.8%


29.8%

Oil2.3%Coal4.8%

Geothermal5.8%

Hydro4.5%

Imported Gas4.6%

Gas10.7%

Imported Oil29.8%

2014

Total: 452.9 MMBFOE


2004Imported Coal

9.0%

Imported Oil35.1%

Indigenous Energy55.9%

Oil1.7%

Coal3.3%


32.1%

Geothermal6.8%

Hydro5.6%

Gas6.3%

Self-sufficiency : 55.9%

FINAL ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTFINAL ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTBY FUELBY FUEL

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Alternative Fuels

Electricity

RE

Natural Gas

Coal

Jet Fuel

LPG

Kerosene

Fuel Oil

Gasoline

Diesel Oil

FINAL ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTFINAL ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTBY SECTORBY SECTOR

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Agriculture

Transport

Residential

Commercial

Industry

in M

MB

FOE

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SECTORAL ENERGY DEMAND SECTORAL ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTFORECAST, , REGION XREGION X

2004 2005 2010 2014INDUSTRY 3.11 3.30 5.05 5.87

Oil Products 0.19 0.20 0.25 0.30Coal 0.54 0.57 0.76 0.98Natural Gas - - 0.89 0.89Biomass and Other Renewables 1.90 1.98 2.42 2.76Electricity 0.49 0.55 0.73 0.93

COMMERCIAL 0.85 0.91 1.15 1.36Oil Products 0.30 0.31 0.40 0.47Biomass and Other Renewables 0.39 0.40 0.49 0.56Electricity 0.17 0.20 0.26 0.33

RESIDENTIAL 6.23 6.53 7.96 9.13Oil Products 0.34 0.36 0.42 0.48Biomass and Other Renewables 5.69 5.94 7.24 8.27Electricity 0.20 0.23 0.30 0.38

TRANSPORT 2.15 2.22 2.63 2.95Oil Products 2.15 2.22 2.41 2.71Alternative Fuels NIL NIL 0.22 0.24

AGRICULTURE 0.25 0.26 0.30 0.33Oil Products 0.25 0.26 0.29 0.32Electricity NIL NIL 0.01 0.01

TOTAL 12.59 13.22 17.09 19.64

POWER DEMAND/SUPPLY OUTLOOKPOWER DEMAND/SUPPLY OUTLOOKLuzonLuzon

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Exist ing C o mmitted Indicat ive P eak D emand

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

Required Capacity Additions 0 0 0 150 1,050 1,650 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,200

Committeed Capacity 25 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Existing Capacity 11,086 11,086 11,086 11,086 11,086 10,876 10,226 10,226 10,226 10,226

Peak Demand(PDP 2004 DDP) 6,953 7,397 7,878 8,395 8,948 9,545 10,181 10,870 11,602 12,387

Peak Demand(PDP 2004 LowGDP)

7,343 7,964 8,635 9,372 10,171 11,018 11,917 12,871 13,884 14,959

Peak Demand(PDP 2003) 7,473 8,076 8,662 9,323 10,036 10,786 11,575 12,406 13,280

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MW Northwind (25 MW)

PNOC-EDC Wind (40 MW)

Retirements

Hopewell GT – 210 MW (2009)

Malaya 1 & 2 – 650 MW (2010)

Additional Capacity Needed

POWER SUPPLYPOWER SUPPLY--DEMAND PROFILEDEMAND PROFILELuzonLuzon POWER SUPPLYPOWER SUPPLY--DEMAND OUTLOOKDEMAND OUTLOOK

VisayasVisayas

-

5 0 0

1 , 0 0 0

1 , 5 0 0

2 , 0 0 0

2 , 5 0 0

3 , 0 0 0

2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4

Exist ing C o mmitted Indicat ive P eak D emand

4

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

Req'd Cap. Add. 0 0 0 100 0 0 150 100 100 150 Committed Cap. 151 0 84 20 0 0 0 0 0 0Existing Capacity 1435 1435 1410 1410 1410 1410 1366 1366 1366 1366Peak Demand 1113 1170 1238 1308 1383 1463 1550 1644 1742 1849

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MWTransfer of Pinamucan DPP(110 MW), Guimaras DPP (3.4 MW), Mirant DPPs (37.5)

N. Negros Geo, Palinpinon Geo (60MW), Talisay (30 MW, net 24 MW)

Bais Bioenergy (25 MW, net 20 MW)


Retirement

Cebu LBGT – 55 MW (2011)

POWER SUPPLYPOWER SUPPLY--DEMAND PROFILEDEMAND PROFILEVisayasVisayas

POWER DEMAND/SUPPLY OUTLOOKPOWER DEMAND/SUPPLY OUTLOOKMindanaoMindanao

-

500

1 , 000

1 , 500

2 , 000

2 , 500

3 , 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Existing Committed Indicative Peak Demand

MW

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Req'd Cap Add. 150 100 100 50 50 50 50 100 50 150

Committed Cap. 75 0 210 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Existing Capacity 1515 1566 1681 1681 1681 1681 1681 1681 1681 1681

Peak Demand 1,371 1,458 1,535 1,615 1,697 1,784 1,883 2,001 2,124 2,256

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mindanao Coal 200Transfer of PB 101, 103 & 104


POWER SUPPLYPOWER SUPPLY--DEMAND PROFILEDEMAND PROFILEMindanaoMindanao

ENERGY SECTOR AGENDAENERGY SECTOR AGENDA

I. Energy IndependenceIncrease indigenous oil and gas reservesAggresively develop renewable energy potential such as biomass, solar, wind and ocean resourcesIncrease use of alternative fuelsForm strategic alliance with other countriesStrengthen and enhance energy efficiency and conservation program

II. Power Market ReformsCreate a transparent privatization processCreate an investment climate attractive to investors

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I.I. ENERGY INDEPENDENCEENERGY INDEPENDENCEENERGY INDEPENDENCEENERGY INDEPENDENCE

Intensive promotion of oil & gas exploration

1st Petroleum Contracting Round (PCR-1) launched in August 2003 offering 46 contract areasPCR-2 to be launched in 2005

A.A. FOSSIL FUELSFOSSIL FUELSIncrease in oil and gas reserves by 20% in ten years

Oil and Gas

Boost local coal productionIdentify additional coal exploration areasEnhance promotional activities on Clean Coal Technology (CCT)Increase mine productivity

ENERGY INDEPENDENCEENERGY INDEPENDENCE

Reduce coal imports by 20% in ten years

Coal


B.B. RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGYIncrease renewable energy-based capacity by 100% in ten years in accordance with Renewable Energy Plan Framework (REPF)

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To be the world’s leader in geothermal energy

Active promotion of geothermal exploration through Geothermal Bid Round

10 prospective geothermal sites with 300 – 510 MW potential capacity

Explore new and underexploredprospective sites


GeothermalTo be the largest wind power producer in Southeast Asia

Launched the first ever wind investment kit for 16 wind power areas with 345 MW potential capacity in June ‘04First commercial 1.1 MW wind-diesel hybrid project in Batanes in Aug. ‘04Northwind’s 25MW wind farm power erected in Bangui, Ilocos Norte to come on stream by April 2005PNOC’s 40MW wind farm power in Burgos, Ilocos Norte to be constructed in 2005

Philippine Wind Energy Potential Map


Wind

Cypress Sunpower’s USD300M solar manufacturing plant

Inaugurated in March 2004Initially to produce some 8 million wafers equivalent to 25 MWExpected to increase to 150 MW by 2007

CEPALCO’s 1,082 kWp PV Plant in Cagayan de Oro

Largest grid-connected PV plant in developing worldIn tandem with 7 MW hydro plant

To be the region’s solar manufacturing hub


Solar

Push for the development of all viable and mini-hydropower plants


Promote biomass development and utilization for power and non-power applications

Hydropower

Biomass

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100% of Metro Manila buses running on CNG by 20105% CME blend with diesel fuel for vehicles in 201010% ethanol blend with gasoline fuel for vehicles by 2007 to reach 25% in 2010Convert retired oil-based power plants to natural gas by 2007


C.C. ALTERNATIVE FUELSALTERNATIVE FUELSExpand the use of natural gas as a fuel of choice

Infrastructure development BatMan 1 and spur lines by 2007LNG Terminal by 2010

Conversion of existing and decommissioned power plants into natural gasConstruction of greenfield power plantsContinued implementation of the NGVPPT

CNG buses to start plying major routes of Manila to Laguna by 20054 local bus operators signed purchase contracts for 160 units of CNG buses from China


Natural Gas

South Luzon South Luzon –– Natural Gas Natural Gas InfrastructureInfrastructure

Accelerate the Coco-Biodiesel Program for transportCMECME


Develop ethanol as fuel blend for vehiclesETHANOLETHANOL

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Accelerate the Coco-Biodiesel Program for transport

Memorandum Circular No. 55 - incorporating the use of 1% by volume of CME in the diesel requirements of all government vehicles in 2004

Nationwide implementation on the use of 1.0-5.0% coco-biodieselto commence in 2006


CME

Develop ethanol as fuel blend for vehiclesSugar industry launched the Philippine Fuel Ethanol AlliancePetron to introduce pre-blended ethanol


ETHANOL

23.4 MMBFOE average annual energy savings in ten years through the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Program (NEECP)

8.1 MMBFOE to come from alternative fuels for transport15.9 MMBFOE to come from energy efficiency and conservation program


D.D. ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND CONSERVATIONENERGY EFFICIENCY AND CONSERVATION

CNG for transport busesBiofuels as mandatory fuel blends Expand scope of energy labeling to other appliances, vehicles, electrical devices & equipmentShift to energy efficient lighting in residential, commercial & industrial establishments


DOE to push for mandatory implementation of nationwide energy efficiency & conservation program

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TWO-PRONGED PROGRAMFuel Efficiency and Conservation Program

Road Transport PatrolFuel Economy RunVoluntary AgreementsGovernment Enercon ProgramEnergy AuditInfomercials / Publications / Collaterals

Electricity Efficiency and Conservation ProgramPower PatrolPartnership for Energy Responsive Companies (PERCS)Partnership for Energy Responsive Ecozones (PEREZ)Energy Standards & Labeling of Appliances/EquipmentGovernment Enercon ProgramEnergy AuditEnergy Use Standards for BuildingsHeat Rate Improvement in Power PlantsSystems Loss Reduction

ENERGY INDEPENDENCEENERGY INDEPENDENCEII.II. POWER MARKET POWER MARKET

REFORMSREFORMS

A. Power Development PlanB. Privatization B. Investment ClimateC. Way Forward

Interconnection

• Leyte-Luzon (440 MW)

• Leyte-Cebu (200 MW)

• Cebu-Negros (100 MW)

• Negros – Panay (100 MW)

• Leyte-Bohol (100 MW)

PLANT TYPE

Oil-based 3,669 23Hydro 3,217 20Geothermal 2,147 14Coal 3,967 25Natural Gas 2,763 18

Total 15,763 100

Installed (MW) %share

Distribution UtilitiesElectric Cooperatives 119Private Dist. Utilities 17LGUs 10Barangay Electrification, as of 9/04No. of Brgys. Electrified 38,350 No. of Remaining Brgys. 3,595

Luzon 12,377 11,086 6,728Visayas 1,721 1,520 1,063Mindanao 1,665 1,402 1,278

Total 15,763 14,008 9,069

Dependable Capacity

(MW)

Peak Demand

(MW)

Installed Capacity

(MW)GRID

POWER SECTOR SITUATIONPOWER SECTOR SITUATIONGeneration / Transmission / Distribution, 2004

T/L length = 20,773 ckt-kms

A. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN

14.8%

Coal

28.9%

Oil-based

Natural Gas

22.6%

Geothermal

18.4%

Hydro

15.3%

POWER GENERATION MIXPOWER GENERATION MIXPhilippines, 2004Philippines, 2004

TOTAL : 55,958.04 GWh

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POWER GENERATION MIXPOWER GENERATION MIXLuzon / Luzon / VisayasVisayas / Mindanao, 2004/ Mindanao, 2004

VISAYAS GRID

Geothermal70.2%

Hy dro0.4%

Coal7.2%

Natural Gas0.0%

Oil-based22.2%

Total: 9,025.9 GWh

MINDANAO GRID

Geothermal13.0%

Hy dro60.4%

Oil-based26.6%

Total: 6,996.0 GWh

LUZON GRID

Geothermal7.6%

Hy dro10.7%

Coal38.9%

Natural Gas31.7% Oil-based

11.0%Total: 39,936.2 GWh

CAPACITY ADDITIONSCAPACITY ADDITIONS

LUZON7,200 MW

(2008 – 2014)

LUZONLUZON7,200 MW

(2008 – 2014)

VISAYAS600 MW

(2008 – 2014)

VISAYASVISAYAS600 MW

(2008 – 2014)

MINDANAO850 MW

(2005 – 2014)

MINDANAOMINDANAO850 MW

(2005 – 2014)

PEAK DEMAND VS. CUMULATIVE PEAK DEMAND VS. CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY INSTALLED CAPACITY in MWin MW

Cumulative Cumulative CumulativePeak Installed Peak Installed Peak Installed

Demand Capacity Demand Capacity Demand Capacity

2005 7,643 12,292 1,113 1,834 1,371 1,890 2006 7,964 12,332 1,170 1,834 1,458 1,990 2007 8,635 12,332 1,238 1,888 1,535 2,300 2008 9,372 12,482 1,308 2,013 1,615 2,350 2009 10,171 13,322 1,383 2,013 1,697 2,400 2010 11,018 14,322 1,463 2,013 1,784 2,450 2011 11,917 15,372 1,550 2,108 1,883 2,500 2012 12,871 16,422 1,644 2,208 2,001 2,600 2013 13,884 17,472 1,742 2,358 2,124 2,650 2014 14,959 18,672 1,849 2,458 2,256 2,800

Annual Growth Rate 8.16 5.72 5.91

Mindanao

Year

Luzon Visayas

COMMITTED POWER PROJECTSCOMMITTED POWER PROJECTS

Capacity Commissioning (MW) Year

Luzon 65Northwind Power 25 Feb-05 Ilocos NortePNOC-EC Wind Power 40 Aug-06 Ilocos NorteVisayas 228.4Guimelco DPP 3.4 Mar-05 PanayPinamucan Transfer 110 Jun-05 PanayTalisay Bioenergy 30 2007 NegrosNorthern Negros Geo 40 Jul-07 NegrosPNOC-Palinpinon Geo 20 Jul-07 NegrosBais Bioenergy 25 2008 NegrosMindanao 285Transfer of PB 101, 103 and 104 75 2005 South MindanaoMindanao Coal 210 Jan-07 Misamis Oriental

Total 578.4

Project Name Location

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INDICATIVE POWER PROJECTSINDICATIVE POWER PROJECTSCapacity Commissioning

(MW) Year

Luzon 510Tarlac Bioenergy 40 2008 San Miguel, TarlacPagbilao Coal III 350 Dec-08 QuezonTanawon Proj (Bacman Opt.) 40 2009 SorsogonNorth Luzon Phase 2 Wind Project 40 2009 Ilocos NorteManito-Kayabong Geo Project 40 2011 Manito, AlbayVisayas 470Rehab of Alijis 7.5 Mar-05 Bacolod CityBacolod City DPP 7.5 Dec-05 Bacolod CitySan Carlos Wind Farm 30 (net 9) Jul-06 Negros OccidentalVictorias Bioenergy 50 (net 32) 2008 Negros OccidentalToledo Power Exp. Project 100 2008 CebuKEPCO Clean Coal 200 2008 CebuToledo Expansion 100 2008 CebuBogo Bioenergy 25 2008 Bogo, CebuDauin Geo Project 40 2012 Negros OrientalCabalian Geo Phase I 50 2010 Southern LeyteCabalian Geo Phase II 40 2011 Southern LeyteMindanao 376Mt. Apo Geothermal Expansion 20 2007 North CotabatoCabulig Hydro 8 2007 Misamis OrientalMinergy Expansion 30 2007 Cagayan de OroMt. Apo Geothermal Expansion 2 50 2008 North CotabatoTagoloan Hydro 68 2008 BukidnonSultan Kudarat Coal 200 2009 Sultan Kudarat

Grand Total 1,356

Project Name Location

POWER PLANT POWER PLANT RETIREMENT SCHEDULERETIREMENT SCHEDULE

Capacity(MW)

LuzonHopewell GT 210.0 Gas Turbine 2009Malaya 1 300.0 Oil Thermal 2010Malaya 2 350.0 Oil Thermal 2010VisayasPB 101 32.0 Diesel 2005 Transfer to MindanaoBohol DPP 22.0 Diesel 2005 DeferredPanay DPP 36.5 Diesel 2007PB 103 32.0 Diesel 2009 DeferredPB 104 32.0 Diesel 2009 DeferredCebu LBGT 55.0 Gas Turbine 2011Cebu DPP 1 43.8 Diesel 2011 Deferred

Total 951.5

Project Name RemarksFuel Year

POWER MARKET REFORMSPOWER MARKET REFORMS

Privatize 70% of the installed capacity of NPC’s generating assets in Luzon and Visayas by 2005

3.5-MW Talomo Hydropower1.6-MW Agusan Hydropower1.8-MW Barit Hydropower0.4-MW Cawayan Hydropower1.2-MW Loboc Hydropower600-MW Masinloc Coal

Privatize TransCoContinuously implement transmission system upgrade and expansionprogram

B. PRIVATIZATION


Implement WESM in Luzon and Visayas by 2006100% barangay electrification by 2008Open at least ten SPUG areas to private sector participation Single digit national average systems loss of distribution utilities by 2010

C. INVESTMENT CLIMATE

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Continued active private sector participationEPIRA restriction on the government to put up additional generating capacitiesPrivate sector to finance much needed power infrastructureAddress critical power supply situation in some areas

Creating a conducive environment for investmentMarket-based environment to promote a competitive power generation sectorTariff rate mechanism that would balance the interests of the investors and consumers


D. WAY FORWARD

INVESTMENT INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTSREQUIREMENTS

Philippine Energy Plan (2005 Update)Philippine Energy Plan (2005 Update)

INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTSINVESTMENT REQUIREMENTSin Billion in Billion PhpPhp

ERD 1,100.36 20.00Coal 78.39 83.92 162.31 2.95 Geothermal 78.80 1.43 Hydropower 304.70 5.54 Biomass, Solar & Wind 67.30 1.22 Oil & Gas 179.39 307.86 487.25 8.86

Downstream 330.09 6.00Oil 28.54 0.52 Natural Gas 156.42 2.84

Energy Efficiency 58.54 86.59 145.13 2.64 Power 554.00 10.20

Main Grid 535.60 9.74 Small Island Grids 9.36 9.04 18.40 0.33 Electrification 6.89 6.89 0.13

2005-2009 2010-2014 TOTAL in Billion Php

Total in Billion USD The PEP will serve as the The PEP will serve as the

blueprint of all players in the blueprint of all players in the energy sector for the next energy sector for the next ten years.ten years.

http://http://www.doe.gov.phwww.doe.gov.ph

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THANK YOU !THANK YOU !

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYDEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

http://http://www.doe.gov.phwww.doe.gov.ph

REGIONAL ENERGY PLANNING - CCOP · 2 PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY FORECAST 2005 Natural Gas 8% Geothermal 6% Hydropower 5% Biomass, Solar and Wind 30% Coal 10% Oil and Oil Products 41% 2010

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