Iraq Turkey Jordan L eba non S Y R I A Quneitra Latakia Tartous Homs Hama Aleppo Idlib Ar Raqqah Damascus As Suwayda Deraa Deir ez-Zor Hasakah Nubl / Zahraa Fu’ah / Kefraya T4 (Tiyas) Kuweires Qamishli KNOWN IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS (IRGC) OR PROXY POSITION KNOWN RUSSIAN POSITION Sayqal F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z 1 2 3 4 5 6 A B 1 2 7 8 9 Rebel Control ISIS Control ISIS, JN, Rebel Control KEY Regime Control YPG (Syrian Kurds) Control Jabhat al-Nusra Control Besieged Isolated Regime Positions Iran and Proxies Russia Foreign Positions 10 mi 20 km A B C D E Hezbollah Presence Airbase A - Nubl and Zahraa B - Bashkuy and Handarat C - Neyrab Airbase / Aleppo Airport D - As-Safira Defense Factories E - Fu’ah and Kefraya F - Latakia City G - Joureen H - Tel al-Nasiriyah I - Qumhana J - Hama Military Airport K - Brigade 47 and Tel Qartal L - Tartous City M - Homs City N - Qusayr O - Yabroud P - Zabadani Q - Jamraya R - Mezze District and Airbase S - Sayyida Zeinab District T - Damascus International Airport U - Amal Farms V - Nabi al-Fawwar W - Sanamayn X - Izraa Y - Dera’a Municipal Stadium Z - Qamishli Airport 1 - Port of Latakia 2 - Bassel al-Assad Airport 3 - Tartous Naval Facility 4 - Slinfah 5 - Homs City 6 - Damascus International Airport 7 - Hama Military Airport 8 - Shayrat Airbase 9 - T4 (Tiyas) Airbase Posture of Syrian Regime and Allies: November 9, 2015 Key Take-Away: Russia shifted military assets into eastern Homs Province, positioning at least five attack helicopters at the T4 (Tiyas) Airbase in eastern Homs Province and additional rotary-wing aircraft at the Shayrat Airbase east of Homs City by November 4. These deployments position Russia to blunt an offensive by ISIS against pro-regime forces south of Homs City that began after ISIS seized the village of Mahin on November 1, 2015. ISIS’s recent gains south of Homs threaten the strategic regime-controlled M5 Highway connecting Damascus to Homs as well as the regime-held provincial capital of Homs City. ISIS may seek to pressure Homs City in order to divert Russian and Iranian forces in Syria from their ongoing ground operations near Aleppo City. The advances in Homs have al- ready driven an apparent shift in the Russian air campaign to expand the targeting of ISIS forces threatening core regime terrain as well as ISIS-held positions in eastern Syria more broadly. Russia has also forward-staged rotary-wing aircraft out of the Hama Military Airport in order to target rebel positions north of Hama City. Syrian rebels have been pushing back regime forces in the northern countryside of Hama Province despite the start of Russian air support to the Syrian regime on September 30. Rebel forces seized the strategic town of Morek on the border between Hama and Idlib Provinces on November 5. The redeployment of some rotary-wing aircraft to Homs Province may limit the amount of firepower that Russia has available to respond to the rebel offensive in northern Hama Province as well as pressure from ISIS southeast of Aleppo City. The expansion of the Russian footprint in Homs and Hama Provinces positions Russia to further deepen its military involvement in the Syrian Civil War. The ag- gressive use of helicopter gunships to conduct reconnaissance-by-fire along active frontlines will provide Russia with valuable sources of additional intelligence on potential targets for fixed-wing airstrikes. Over the long-term, the deployments to the two airbases in eastern Homs Province could also provide Russia with new forward positions for an expanded air campaign against ISIS in far-eastern Syria or western Iraq. The forward-staging of Russian rotary-wing nonetheless brings Russian personnel closer to direct contact with ISIS, raising the risk that ISIS could deliberately target these forces in order to punish Russia for its involve- ment in Syria.
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I r a q
T u r k e y
J o r d a n
Le b a n
o n
I s r a e l
S Y R I A
Quneitra
Latakia
TartousHoms
Hama
Aleppo
IdlibAr Raqqah
Damascus
As SuwaydaDeraa
Deir ez-Zor
HasakahNubl / Zahraa
Fu’ah / Kefraya
T4 (Tiyas)
Kuweires
Qamishli
KNOWN IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS (IRGC) OR PROXY POSITION KNOWN RUSSIAN POSITION
Sayqal
F G
HI
JK
L
M
N
O
PQ
R S TU
VW
X
Y
Z
12
3
4
5
6
A B
1 2
7
89
Rebel ControlISIS Control
ISIS, JN, Rebel Control
KEYRegime Control
YPG (Syrian Kurds) Control
Jabhat al-Nusra Control
Besieged
Isolated
Regime Positions
Iran and Proxies
Russia
Foreign Positions
10 mi20 km
AB
C DE
Hezbollah Presence
Airbase
A - Nubl and ZahraaB - Bashkuy and HandaratC - Neyrab Airbase / Aleppo AirportD - As-Sa�ra Defense FactoriesE - Fu’ah and KefrayaF - Latakia CityG - JoureenH - Tel al-NasiriyahI - QumhanaJ - Hama Military Airport
K - Brigade 47 and Tel QartalL - Tartous CityM - Homs CityN - QusayrO - YabroudP - ZabadaniQ - JamrayaR - Mezze District and AirbaseS - Sayyida Zeinab DistrictT - Damascus International Airport
U - Amal FarmsV - Nabi al-FawwarW - SanamaynX - IzraaY - Dera’a Municipal StadiumZ - Qamishli Airport
1 - Port of Latakia2 - Bassel al-Assad Airport3 - Tartous Naval Facility4 - Slinfah5 - Homs City6 - Damascus International Airport7 - Hama Military Airport8 - Shayrat Airbase9 - T4 (Tiyas) Airbase
Posture of Syrian Regime and Allies: November 9, 2015
Key Take-Away: Russia shifted military assets into eastern Homs Province, positioning at least �ve attack helicopters at the T4 (Tiyas) Airbase in eastern Homs Province and additional rotary-wing aircraft at the Shayrat Airbase east of Homs City by November 4. These deployments position Russia to blunt an o�ensive by ISIS against pro-regime forces south of Homs City that began after ISIS seized the village of Mahin on November 1, 2015. ISIS’s recent gains south of Homs threaten the strategic regime-controlled M5 Highway connecting Damascus to Homs as well as the regime-held provincial capital of Homs City. ISIS may seek to pressure Homs City in order to divert Russian and Iranian forces in Syria from their ongoing ground operations near Aleppo City. The advances in Homs have al-ready driven an apparent shift in the Russian air campaign to expand the targeting of ISIS forces threatening core regime terrain as well as ISIS-held positions in eastern Syria more broadly. Russia has also forward-staged rotary-wing aircraft out of the Hama Military Airport in order to target rebel positions north of Hama City. Syrian rebels have been pushing back regime forces in the northern countryside of Hama Province despite the start of Russian air support to the Syrian regime on September 30. Rebel forces seized the strategic town of Morek on the border between Hama and Idlib Provinces on November 5. The redeployment of some rotary-wing aircraft to Homs Province may limit the amount of �repower that Russia has available to respond to the rebel o�ensive in northern Hama Province as well as pressure from ISIS southeast of Aleppo City.
The expansion of the Russian footprint in Homs and Hama Provinces positions Russia to further deepen its military involvement in the Syrian Civil War. The ag-gressive use of helicopter gunships to conduct reconnaissance-by-�re along active frontlines will provide Russia with valuable sources of additional intelligence on potential targets for �xed-wing airstrikes. Over the long-term, the deployments to the two airbases in eastern Homs Province could also provide Russia with new forward positions for an expanded air campaign against ISIS in far-eastern Syria or western Iraq. The forward-staging of Russian rotary-wing nonetheless brings Russian personnel closer to direct contact with ISIS, raising the risk that ISIS could deliberately target these forces in order to punish Russia for its involve-ment in Syria.
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