Reference Case Energy and Emissions Forecast for Vermont

Reference Case Energy and Emissions Forecast for Vermont

Taylor Binnington Scientist, Energy Modeling Program

9 June 2021

Modeling Tool

• Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP)

• A software tool for quantitative modeling of:• Energy systems

• Pollutant emissions from energy and non-energy sources

• Health impacts

• Sustainable development indicators

• Costs and benefits

• Related externalities

• Created by an SEI team based in Somerville, Mass.

• Distinguished by data and methodological flexibility, graphical user interface, built-in accounting features(energy, emissions, costs, natural resources)

• Thousands of users in over 190 countries

https://leap.sei.org

https://leap.sei.org/

Model Scope and Methods

• Modeling period: 2015-2050, with scenario(s) beginning in 2020

• Model covers all energy demand, energy supply, and GHG emissions

in Vermont (all sectors including emissions from energy and non-

energy sources)

• GHG emissions converted to CO2-equivalent using 100-year global

warming potentials from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change’s Fourth Assessment Report

Model Development Process

Historical energy flows

Reference case projection

Mitigation scenarios

Mitigation pathway(s)

Final energy demand“Simple” energy

supplyElectric capacity and

dispatch

GHGs Other air pollutants Criteria pollutants

Fuel costsInvestment and other mitigation

policy costs

Historical emissionsSimple trend

projectionLULUCF

Scenarios

Scope

Energy-related emissions

Non-energy emissions

Costs

On-Road Transportation

What’s Included?

• Registrations of publicly and privately owned road vehicles from VDMV

• Historical vehicle registrations from UVM TRC (Dowds) and FHWA

• Historical and forecasted VMT from UVM TRC (Sullivan)

• Fuel economy and mileage over vehicle lifetime from VISION 2020 model, including ethanol and

biodiesel blends

• EV sales from VELCO (light-duty) and multi-state MOU (medium- and heavy-duty)

• Other vehicle sales forecasts aligned with AEO 2020

• GHG emissions from EPA’s SIT and GREET

On-Road Transportation: Reference Case Results

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2020 2030 2040 2050

Passenger Car Sales Shares by Technology

CNG Diesel Diesel Hybrid E85 Flex Fuel

EV A EV B EV C Gasoline

Gasoline Hybrid Gasoline PHEV A Gasoline PHEV B Natural Gas Fuel Cell


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2020 2030 2040 2050

Light Truck Sales Shares by Technology





0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

THo

usa

nd

Ve

hic

les

Light Duty Vehicles by Technology





10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Trill

ion

BTUEnergy Demand for On-Road Transportation by Vehicle Type

Heavy Duty Light Truck Medium Duty Passenger Car


10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Trill

ion

BTU

Energy Demand for On-Road Transportation by Fuel

Biodiesel CNG Diesel Electricity Ethanol Gasoline LPG Natural Gas


500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tho

usa

nd

Me

tric

To

nn

es

CO

2e

Direct GHG Emissions from On-Road Transportation by Vehicle Type

Heavy Duty Light Truck Medium Duty Passenger Car

Non-Road Transportation

What’s Included?

• Historical and forecasted rail, aviation, navigation, “other” fuel shares from AEO 2020

• Total energy consumption per capita derived from SEDS, and population forecasts from VT DOH and

UVM TRC

• GHG Emissions from EPA’s SIT

Non-Road Transportation: Reference Case Results

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tho

usa

nd

Me

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To

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CO

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Direct GHG Emissions from Non-Road Transportation by Mode

Aviation Navigation Other Rail

Commercial Buildings

What’s Included?

• Based on EIA CBECS

• Floorspace for “pre-2007” buildings without retrofits, with HVAC retrofit, with insulation retrofits, “post-2007” buildings

• Within each, penetration of different building technologies and energy use per square foot

• Floorspace projections from AEO 2020 for New England, prorated for Vermont GDP from US BEA

• Adjustments to technology shares within space heating, lighting, water heating from PSD/Cadmus

• Estimated annual heat pump additions from VELCO/Itron

• Energy efficiency program thermal fuel savings and declining electricity use per square foot from EVT,

total natural gas efficiency from Vermont PUC

• GHG emissions from EPA’s SIT

Commercial Buildings: Reference Case Assumptions

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Sq

uar

e F

eet

Commercial Floorspace by Building Category and Construction Year

Pre 2007 Pre 2007 with HVAC Retrofit Pre 2007 with Insulation Retrofit Post 2007

Commercial Buildings: Reference Case Results

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Trill

ion

BTU

Energy Demand in Commercial Buildings by End Use

Computing Cooking Lighting Miscellaneous Office Equipment

Refrigeration Space Cooling Space Heating Ventilation Water Heating


5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Trill

ion

BTU

Energy Demand in Commercial Buildings by Fuel

Distillate Fuel Oil Electricity Ethanol Gasoline Kerosene

Natural Gas Propane Residual Fuel Oil Solar Wood


2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Trill

ion

BTU

Energy Demand for Space Heating in Commercial Buildings by Fuel

Distillate Fuel Oil Electricity Natural Gas Propane Wood


200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tho

usa

nd

Met

ric

Ton

ne

s C

O2e

Direct GHG Emissions from Commercial Buildings by Fuel

Distillate Fuel Oil Ethanol Gasoline Kerosene

Natural Gas Propane Residual Fuel Oil Wood


200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tho

usa

nd

Me

tric

To

nn

es

CO

2e

Direct GHG Emissions from Commercial Buildings by End Use

Space Heating Space Cooling Water Heating Cooking Miscellaneous

Residential Buildings

What’s Included?

• Based on EIA RECS

• Includes shares of housing units in urban vs. rural areas, by housing type and tenure, having different energy end uses and technologies

• Technology and end use penetrations from VT Residential Market Assessment and RECS

• Equipment efficiencies from RECS and VT Residential Market Assessment

• Total housing units from Census Bureau, population forecast harmonized with UVM TRC

• VT Residential Fuel Assessment: wood and pellet consumption in Vermont

• VT Residential Market Assessment: technology penetration in new housing units

• Projected energy efficiency program savings by end use from EVEE

• Projected building shell retrofits (weatherization) from EVR and VGS, with building shell

improvements in new construction from PSD/EVEE

Residential Buildings (continued)

What’s Included?

• Changes to HDD and CDD from Northeast Regional Climate Center

• Projected changes to device efficiencies, and changes in shares of households using different cooking

technologies from AEO 2020

• Estimated annual heat pump additions from VELCO/Itron


Residential Buildings: Reference Case Assumptions

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tho

usa

nd

Un

its

Housing Units by Type of Structure

Apartment Building 2-4 Units Apartment Building 5 or More Units

Mobile Single Family Attached

Single Family Detached

Residential Buildings: Reference Case Results

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Trill

ion

BTU

Energy Demand in Residential Buildings by End Use

Cooking Other Refrigeration Space Cooling Space Heating Water Heating


5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Trill

ion

BTU

Energy Demand in Residential Buildings by Fuel

Distillate Fuel Oil Electricity Natural Gas Propane Wood Wood Pellets


5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Trill

ion

BTU

Energy Demand for Space Heating in Residential Buildings by Fuel

Distillate Fuel Oil Electricity Natural Gas Propane Wood Wood Pellets


200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tho

usa

nd

Met

ric

Ton

ne

s C

O2e

Direct GHG Emissions from Residential Buildings by Fuel

Distillate Fuel Oil Natural Gas Propane Wood Wood Pellets


200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tho

usa

nd

Me

tric

To

nn

es

CO

2e

Direct GHG Emissions from Residential Buildings by End Use

Cooking Other Space Heating Water Heating

Industry

What’s Included?

• Historical energy consumption by fuel from SEDS, with consumption forecasts aligned with AEO 2020

• AEO 2020: forecasted growth in final demands for each fuel

• Adjustments in natural gas, thermal fuels and electricity consumption to include forecasted energy

efficiency programs from PUC and EVT


Industry: Reference Case Results

5

10

15

20

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Trill

ion

BTU

Energy Demand in Industry by Fuel

Electricity Natural Gas Gasoline Kerosene

Distillate Fuel Oil Wood Wood Waste Solids Ethanol

Propane Residual Fuel Oil Biodiesel Lubricants

Cellulosic Ethanol Asphalt and Road Oil

Industry: Reference Case Results

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tho

usa

nd

Met

ric

Ton

ne

s C

O2e

Direct GHG Emissions from Industry by Fuel

Natural Gas Gasoline Kerosene Distillate Fuel Oil

Wood Wood Waste Solids Ethanol Propane

Residual Fuel Oil Biodiesel Lubricants Cellulosic Ethanol

Total Emissions: Notes on Interpretation

In this draft version, emissions from electricity consumption are represented using a simplified consumption-based approach:

• Fixed amount of nuclear energy contracted to Vermont utilities for the duration of existing contracts (from PSD),

• Beginning 2017 and after, Vermont’s Tier I and Tier II Renewable Energy Standard met using renewable energy,

• Remainder of electricity sourced from average grid mix:

• Current GHG emissions from ISO-NE

• Forecast GHG emissions decline assuming each state meets its own renewable portfolio standard

Subsequent versions of the model will simulate electric generation capacity and dispatch, by representing all different

technologies (and imports) on the New England electric grid.

Total Emissions: Notes (continued)

Non-Energy Emissions are also included:

• LEAP does not natively calculate non-energy emissions, but SEI has recreated some limited accounting calculations from EPA’s

SIT

• Industrial Processes and Produce Use (IPPU), Agriculture, Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), Waste

emissions are taken from EPA’s SIT and Vermont AQCD

• Simplified forecasts based on continuation of observed trends, or tied to change in population or state product (assumed 1.83%/yr growth)

Electricity Consumption: Reference Case Results

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tho

usa

nd

Met

ric

Ton

ne

s C

O2e

Gig

awat

t-h

ou

rs

Electricity Use and GHG Emissions by Source

Nuclear Contracts ISO NE Mix Tier I and II RES ISO NE Mix Emissions

Electricity and Renewable Energy Shares: Reference Case Results

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f Fi

nal

En

erg

y D

em

and

Share of Electricity in Final Energy Demand Share of Renewable Energy in Final Energy Demand

Total GHG Emissions and Targets

-10

-5

5

10

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

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Me

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GHG Emissions from All Sectors, with GWSA Targets

Agriculture

Waste Management

Industrial Processes

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution

Transportation

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

Electricity Consumption

Total Gross Emissions

LULUCF

Total Net Emissions

25%-by-2025

40%-by-2030

80%-by-2050

Reference Case Energy and Emissions Forecast for Vermont

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