Electric Power Sector Emissions Forecast and RES Analysis Peter Ciborowski April 15, 2013.

Electric Power Sector Emissions Forecast and RES Analysis

Peter CiborowskiApril 15, 2013

ForecastHistoric

GHG Electric Power Emission Sources

In-stateCombustion fossil CO2, CH4, N2O

Flue gas desulphurization fossil CO2

Coal storage CH4

Hydroelectric reservoirs CH4

Transmission SF6

Out-of-stateCombustion fossil CO2, CH4, N2O

General Approach

In-state GenerationMWH MMBtu input emissionsHeat rateEmission rateFuel energy content fuel useCapacity factor capacity

Out-of-state GenerationMWH emissionsEmission rate

Sources for Net Generation Forecast

Nonrenewable generationXCEL, MP, OTP, ISP, GRE, MPC, SMMPA: 2012 MN Annual Electric Report

- covers 97% of nonrenewable net generationOther (mainly municipals with associated district heating): 3-year historic average, 2009-2011

Renewable generationExisting facilities: Mostly 3-year historic average, 2009-2011 or, for reporting utilities, 2012 Annual Electric Report forecastPlanned facilities: Most recent Integrated resource plans, characteristic capacity factorsFurther expansion under out-year RES requirements: RES requirements assessment, 40% wind capacity factor, location based on historic in-state vs out-of-state deployment

Why Minnesota Annual Electric Report Forecast?

• model-based economic dispatch • internal consistency on a utility-by-utility basis

between forecasted electric demand and forecasted unit dispatch and purchases

• near-comprehensive coverage of GHG-emitting generation sources

• ease of annual update to the forecast

RES Assessment Components

• Retail sales forecast, utility by utility• % RES requirement (MN, WI, MT), utility by utility• Forecasted generation, capacity and capacity factors at existing

and planned units• Unit retirements

• RES requirements satisfied if:-generation from existing or planned units in any one year plus REC

purchases that year minus REC sales that year plus banked RECs (4-yr shelf life) = REC retirement requirement

-if not, add wind capacity in 5 MW increments until deficit disappears

RES Assessment (cont.)

• Utility or utility groups with MN RES obligations: XCEL, MP, OTP, ISP, GRE, DPC, MPC, East River, L&O, MRES, Heartland, CMMPA, MMPA, SMMPA

• Mandatory RES requirements affecting MN utilities: MN RES, WI RPS, MT RPS

• State-specific RPS requirements: see documentation• Geographical scope for REC generation: M-RETs region

• Source for retail sales forecasts, 2012-2025: 2012 MN Annual Electric Report and, for nonreporting utilities, least square fit to retail sales data, 2001-2011

• Source for RECs ownership: RES compliance filings• Future use of purchased REC purchases: none

Note: forecast line with red triangles is forecast

used in this analysis

Net Imports

• Net imports before losses = Retail sales minus in-state net generation

• T&D losses typically 5 to 7%

• 2010 Minnesota example: Retail sales 67,800 GWhIn-state net genn 52,663 GWhLine loss 4,573 GWhDeficit before line loss 15,137 GWhSource: EIA, Minnesota Electricity Profile 2010 (2012)

Unit Retirements

XCEL Energy: Black Dog units 3-4, Wilmarth units 1-2, Red Wing units 1-2, Key City, Granite CityMinnesota Power: Sappi unit 5Otter Tail Power: Hoot Lake units 2-3Rochester Public Utilities: Silver LakeAustin Utilities: Austin NE: unit 1 (converson to natural gas)

Unit Additions (cumulative MW increase from 2012)

• Simple cycle gas turbine: 9 MW 2013, 33 MW 2014, 132 MW 2015, 224 MW 2018

• Combined cycle gas turbine: 195 MW 2018, 390 MW 2019, 585 2020, 780 MW 2023, 975 MW 2024, 1,807 MW 2025

• Wind: 40 MW 2013, 53 MW 2014, 74 MW 2015, 87 MW 2016, 124 MW 2017, 133 MW 2019, 285 MW 2020, 296 MW 2021, 300 MW 2022, 719 MW 2023, 915 MW 2024, 928 MW 2025

ForecastHistoric

Forecast

Historic

EIA 2013 Annual Energy Outlook MRO-west Net Generation Forecast

  2010 2025 % change

Renewable Energy (million MWH)      

Wind 20.25 32.12 +59%

Photovoltaic 0 0 0%

Biomass 0.67 1.19 +78%

MMSW 1.39 0.48 -65%

Hydroelectric 10.9 10.23 -6%

         subtotal 33.21 44.12 +33%

Other (million MWH)

Coal 125.66 127.26 +1%

Oil 0.16 0.43 +169%

Natural gas 6.22 8.3 +33%

Nuclear 28.98 30.72 +6%

Pumped storage 0.32 0.32 0%

Distributed generation 0 0.13 NA

Carbon Dioxide (million tons)  149.01 151.9 +2%

RES Miscellanea  2015 2025

In-state renewable net generation (GWh)

11,859.7 14,735.8

Out-of-state renewable net generation (GWh)

8,760.3 10.009.8

RECs required to be retired under MN RES

9.998 million 20.205 million

Banked RECs 53.3 million 36.3 million

Ratio of Banked RECS to needed annual MN REC retirements

5.3: 1 1.8:1

Conclusions

• GHG emissions from the Minnesota power sector are likely to largely unchanged, 2013-2025

• Declining emissions from imports are largely offset by increasing emissions from expanded natural gas use

• By the end of 2012, 70% of the emission reductions in-state that might be expected under the RES are likely to already have been realized

• Electric power sector GHG emissions at 2015 will be 15% below 2005 levels, meeting the statutory target

Retirements

Coal Displacement: 2005-2011

  2005 2008 2010 20112011 minus

2005% increase, 2005-2011

Net In-state Generation (million MWH)            

Coal 34.302 31.177 27.540 27.698 (6.604) -19.25%

Nuclear 12.835 12.997 13.478 11.959 (0.877) -6.83%

MMSW and solid biomass 0.994 1.252 1.452 1.328 0.334 +33.65%

Natural gas-gas turbine 2.314 2.672 4.026 3.068 0.754 +32.58%

Hydroelectric 0.806 0.754 0.764 0.700 (0.106) -13.16%

Wind turbine 1.673 4.376 5.234 7.323 5.650 +337.61%

Other 1.127 0.519 0.447 0.446 (0.681) -60.44%

        Total 54.05 53.75 52.94 52.52 (1.530) -2.83%

Imports (million MWH)

16.539 18.274

17.888

19.020 2.481 +15.00%

Imports as % of in-state plus out-of-state generation 23.43% 25.37% 25.25% 26.59%    

Retail sales (million MWH) 66.019 68.159 67.205 67.852 1.833 +2.78%

Proposed RES Modeling Assumptions• Where not prescribed by a carve-out, wind is the

technology of choice• Natural gas back-up generation to wind be

calculated at 5 to 15% of wind generation• New wind capacity factors will rise to 40% by

2015• The location of additional wind capacity (in-state,

out-of-state) will follow historical patterns • Wind will displace either baseload coal or

imports; the calculation should be done both ways

2020 2025 2030

GHGs-avoided (CO2-e tons)

9,368,330  10,494,954  12,123,747

Renewable Energy Generation (MWH)

12,350,799  14,735,831  17,057,227

Renewable Energy Capacity Added

 3,742  4,385  5,050

Emission-avoided Factor 0.76  0.71  0.71

In-state Coal Net Generation Fraction

0.48  0.44 NA

Coal plant Capacity Factor

0.88  0.81  NA

RES 27 (current policy) Emissions-avoided

forecasthistoric

RES and SES Scenarios

RES37: revised weighted RES of 37% at 2030 (30% at 2025, 24% at 2020)

RES37-accelerated: revised weighted RES of 37% at 2030 (34%% at 2025, 29% at 2025)

SES10: SES of 10% at 2030 (5% at 2025, 2% at 2020)

SES2: SES of 2% at 2020

RES and SES Analysis

2020 2025 2030

2030: in-state to out-of-state PV builds set at historic renewable levels

Incremental GHGs-avoided (CO2-e tons)

RES37 (8,490) 86,999 2,130,586 NA

RES37-accelerated 278,163 2,577,742 2,950,568 NA

SES10 954,974 1,333,778 4,611,241 3,038,263

SES2 1,140,022 1,125,681 1,162,900 793,706

incremental additional renewable energy MWH-generated

RES37 (10,804) 118,846 2,947,523 NA

RES37-accelerated 356,538 3,540,840 4,081,343 NA

SES10 1,191,576 1,787,060 6,379,343 4,203,234

SES2 1,425,690 1,492,738 1,542,973 1,053,115

RES and SES Analysis (cont.)

2020 2025 2030

2030: in-state to out-of-state PV builds set at historic renewable levels

incremental additional renewable energy MW installed capacity 

RES37 (5) 35 996 NA

RES37-accelerated 100 1,009 1,423 NA

SES10 805 1,205 4,288 2,827

SES2 962 1,007 1,041 712

emission-avoided factor (CO2-e tons/MWH-avoided) 

RES37 0.79 0.73 0.72 NA

RES37-accelerated 0.78 0.73 0.72 NA

SES10 0.80 0.75 0.72 0.72

SES2 0.80 0.75 0.75 0.75

RES and SES Analysis (cont.)

2020 2025 2030

2030: in-state to out-of-state PV builds set at historic renewable levels

in-state coal net generation fraction (of in-state net generation) 

RES37 0.48 0.44 NA NA

RES37-accelerated 0.48 0.41 NA NA

SES10 0.47 0.42 NA NA

SES2 0.47 0.43 NA NA

coal plant capacity factor 

RES37 0.88 0.81 NA NA

RES37-accelerated 0.87 0.77 NA NA

SES10 0.87 0.79 NA NA

SES2 0.86 0.80 NA NA