Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Aviation Ready to fly high Korea’s aviation industry offers an attractive long-term investment opportunity We believe Korea’s aircraft and parts industry is well-poised for exceptional long-term growth, supported by the stable expansion of the global civil aircraft market and the Korean government’s policy support. Domestic parts suppliers should step out of the shadows of Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) and experience strong growth on their own thanks to technological advances. Within a short time span, Korea has evolved into a manufacturer of parts, civil aircraft, and military aircraft. We believe the domestic development of civil aircraft will become possible within the next decade, aided by the accumulation of technology from manufacturing advanced fighter jets. We identify four potential areas of growth for the Korean aviation industry: 1) the manufacturing of civil aircraft parts, in which domestic suppliers should gain market share; 2) light-armed helicopters (LAH), light civil helicopters (LCH), and fighter jet (KF-X) development projects, which are expected to commence this year, 3) maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) for civil and military aircraft, and 4) the US next-generation trainer program, known as T-X. KAI (047810 KS/Buy/TP: W143,000): Leader of Korea’s aviation industry KAI is Korea’s leading aviation company, manufacturing civil aircraft parts (for Boeing and Airbus), as well as military aircraft, such as the T-50 and Surion. The company is also at the center of Korea’s aircraft development projects, planning to develop and produce next-generation fighter jets and helicopters. In our view, the company is best positioned to benefit from the government’s commitment to fostering the aviation industry. We believe KAI is primed to become a comprehensive aviation company encompassing not only development and manufacturing but also modification and MRO. Technological advancements should help the company eventually tap into the development of civil aircraft. ASTK (067390 KQ/Buy/TP: W49,000): A success story in aircraft parts ASTK is Korea’s second-largest aircraft parts supplier and is capable of producing civil aircraft fuselages. The company, which currently has an order backlog of W1.1tr, should gain increasing orders from Boeing, Airbus, and Lockheed Martin on the back of rising civil aircraft demand and growing outsourcing of parts production. The acquisition of Orbitech should help the company expand its order book, boost capacity, and reduce costs. Orbitech (046120 KQ/Buy/TP: W16,000): A combination of growth and stability Orbitech supplies aircraft parts, but also operates a nuclear energy business, which serves as its cash cow. We believe synergies with parent company ASTK will lead to increased orders and cost savings, allowing the aircraft business to swing to a profit in 2015. Overweight (Maintain) Industry Report August 27, 2015 Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. [Shipbuilding & Machinery] Ki-jong Sung +822-768-3263 [email protected]Michael Yun +822-768-4169 [email protected]Ho-seung Lee +822-768-4176 [email protected][Small Cap] Seung-hyeon Park +822-768-4194 [email protected]Road map of Korean aviation industry Source: KDB Daewoo Securities
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Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
Aviation Ready to fly high
Korea’s aviation industry offers an attractive long-term investment opportunity
We believe Korea’s aircraft and parts industry is well-poised for exceptional long-term growth, supported by the stable expansion of the global civil aircraft market and the Korean government’s policy support. Domestic parts suppliers should step out of the shadows of Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) and experience strong growth on their own thanks to technological advances. Within a short time span, Korea has evolved into a manufacturer of parts, civil aircraft, and military aircraft. We believe the domestic development of civil aircraft will become possible within the next decade, aided by the accumulation of technology from manufacturing advanced fighter jets.
We identify four potential areas of growth for the Korean aviation industry: 1) the manufacturing of civil aircraft parts, in which domestic suppliers should gain market share; 2) light-armed helicopters (LAH), light civil helicopters (LCH), and fighter jet (KF-X) development projects, which are expected to commence this year, 3) maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) for civil and military aircraft, and 4) the US next-generation trainer program, known as T-X.
KAI (047810 KS/Buy/TP: W143,000): Leader of Korea’s aviation industry
KAI is Korea’s leading aviation company, manufacturing civil aircraft parts (for Boeing and Airbus), as well as military aircraft, such as the T-50 and Surion. The company is also at the center of Korea’s aircraft development projects, planning to develop and produce next-generation fighter jets and helicopters. In our view, the company is best positioned to benefit from the government’s commitment to fostering the aviation industry. We believe KAI is primed to become a comprehensive aviation company encompassing not only development and manufacturing but also modification and MRO. Technological advancements should help the company eventually tap into the development of civil aircraft.
ASTK (067390 KQ/Buy/TP: W49,000): A success story in aircraft parts
ASTK is Korea’s second-largest aircraft parts supplier and is capable of producing civil aircraft fuselages. The company, which currently has an order backlog of W1.1tr, should gain increasing orders from Boeing, Airbus, and Lockheed Martin on the back of rising civil aircraft demand and growing outsourcing of parts production. The acquisition of Orbitech should help the company expand its order book, boost capacity, and reduce costs.
Orbitech (046120 KQ/Buy/TP: W16,000): A combination of growth and stability
Orbitech supplies aircraft parts, but also operates a nuclear energy business, which serves as its cash cow. We believe synergies with parent company ASTK will lead to increased orders and cost savings, allowing the aircraft business to swing to a profit in 2015.
1. Market to expand at a CAGR of 5% over the next 20 years
According to Boeing, the global civil aircraft market will see demand for 38,050 new aircraft over the next 20 years, with the total value of those new deliveries estimated at US$5.7tr. Notably, airline passenger traffic and cargo traffic are expected to grow at respective CAGRs of 4.9% and 4.7%—higher than the annual average global GDP growth estimate of 3.1%—creating a favorable environment for the civil aircraft market. In addition, we believe that the oil price downtrend will positively affect the market in the medium to long term, as the attendant fall in jet fuel prices should improve the earnings and purchasing power of airlines. (Jet fuel accounts for the highest proportion of airlines’ expenses.)
Of note, small- and medium-sized aircraft (single-aisle and small wide-body) are seeing the fastest demand growth in the global market due to 1) rising emerging market demand, 2) the growing adoption of highly efficient aircraft, and 3) the growth of low-cost carriers (LCCs). Over the next 20 years, the proportion of small- and medium-sized aircraft will likely reach around 70% of the overall civil aircraft market (50% for single-aisle and 22% for small wide-body).
Figure 1. New aircraft and global airline networks Figure 2. Overview of key aircraft market indicators
Source: Boeing, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Boeing, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 3. Global aircraft market breakdown Figure 4. Civil aircraft market outlook by size
Source: Korea Aerospace Industries Association, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Note: 2013 and 2033 figures refer to total number of aircraft in operation
Source: Boeing, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
MRO30%
Components/equipment
24%
Combat aircraft12%
Civil aircraft34%
(2010)W396bn
3.1
4.9 4.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Global economic growth Passenger traffic Cargo traffic
(%)Average annual growth rate: 2015-2034
1 2 3
14
3 1
4 6
31
3
0
10
20
30
40
Large wide-body
Medium wide-body
Small wide-body Single aisle Regional jets
2014
2034
('000 units)
[Civil aircraft market]20,910 units (2013) -> 42,180 units (2033)
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2. Market trends: Expansion of global outsourcing
The aircraft industry environment is oligopolistic and closed. Traditionally, the industry has been dominated by the US and Europe, with Boeing and Airbus, in particular, controlling the global civil aircraft market. And the combined market share of the top 10 makers stands at more than 80%.
However, major aircraft makers are gradually increasing their global outsourcing of sections/parts/materials production, as: 1) Boeing and Airbus currently enjoy order backlogs of more than five years thanks to surging aircraft demand; 2) outsourcing can cut production costs; 3) parts makers are reducing the burden of new aircraft development for aircraft makers via risk-sharing programs; and 4) parts makers have bolstered their competitiveness on the back of defense offset agreements (in which the seller of a product or service agrees to buy products or services from its client as an inducement).
In the past, Boeing outsourced 35-50% of 737 parts production. For the recently developed 787 model, the percentage has increased to 70%. In addition, the company has modified its supply chain by forging partnerships with vendors capable of providing entire integrated sections (similar to modules). Airbus also plans to increase the proportion of non-EU-sourced parts from 31.5% in 2009 to 40% in 2020.
Table 1. Changes in Boeing’s parts outsourcing strategy
737 (past) 787 (current)
% of parts outsourcing 35-50% 70%
Relationship with parts suppliers Based on conventional supply contracts Strategic partnerships with tier-one vendors
Roles of parts suppliers Parts development and production Section development and production
No. of parts suppliers Several thousand Around 50 strategic partners
Supply contract type Fixed-price contract with delay penalties Risk-sharing partnership
Assembly operations 30 days for final assembly Three days (assembly of complete sections)
Source: Airway News, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 5. Boeing 737 supply chain (past) Figure 6. Boeing 787 supply chain (current)
Source: Boeing, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Boeing, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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Figure 7. Boeing 787 Dreamliner supply chain overview Figure 8. Airbus attempting to raise percentage of non-EU
parts to 40% by 2020
Source: Boeing, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Airbus, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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Military aircraft market outlook
1. Overview of KF-X project
The KF-X project is a program that aims to develop an advanced multirole fighter for the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) based on domestic aerospace technology. The program is targeting production of a 4.5-5G fighter to replace Korea's aging F-4D/E Phantom II and F-5E/F Tiger II aircraft (243 units in total). The government is targeting the introduction of 120 fighter aircraft in 2025. KF-X is Korea’s largest weapons project, bearing total costs of around W30tr (including R&D expenses of W8.7tr).
2. Status of KF-X project
In July 2014, Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff decided to equip the KF-X with two engines, pushing back the year of deployment to 2025 and bumping up the total R&D budget from W6.4tr to W8.7tr. The Defense Acquisition Program Administration will assume 60% (W5.2tr) of total development costs, while the Indonesian government will shoulder 20% of the costs under a cooperative agreement with the Korean government. Private firms, including KAI, will bear the remaining 20%.
A 10-year-long feasibility study was completed, and KAI was selected as the preferred bidder in March 2015. As such, the project is currently gaining momentum. Further delays are unlikely, given that authorities will be reluctant to contribute to a potential fighter vacuum, and we expect the KF-X contract to be finalized by the end of this year.
Table 2. Timeline for the KF-X project
Date Details
Progress
11/02 197th Joint Chiefs of Staff meeting
4/10 Formulated a framework for the project
6/11-12/12. Joint exploratory development study by Korea and Indonesia
3/13-11/13 Outsourced an audit of feasibility study
11/13 8th Aerospace Industry Development Policy Committee meeting
11/13 281st Joint Chiefs of Staff meeting
9/14 Approved basic development plan at a defense project committee meeting
9/14 Signed MOA regarding KF-X technology transfer
10/14
12/14
12/14
Korean and Indonesian governments signed joint development agreement
Finalized total project budget
Announced bidding details
3/15 Selection of preferred bidder
Plans 9/15 Contract negotiation and execution
Source: Defense Acquisition Program Administration, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Table 3. KF-X Development costs and expected benefits (Wtr, %)
Project Details Value Notes
KF-X
Development costs
Korean government W5.2tr (60%)
Indonesian government W1.7tr (20%)
Companies W1.7tr (20%) KAI likely to invest W0.9tr (10%)
Economic benefits
KF-X aircraft W9.9tr-13.2tr
Added value from KF-X production W2.8tr-5tr
Job creation from KF-X production 45,000-61,000
Technological benefits
Aerospace industry W9.5tr
Defense industry W17.7tr
Other W13.5tr
Source: Defense Acquisition Program Administration, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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3. Impact of KF-X project
The KF-X fighter project will likely give rise to the following positives: 1) a significant economic contribution, 2) aerospace technology development, and 3) the strengthening of national security.
1) Economic contribution: Excluding R&D costs, roughly W10tr will be invested in mass production and W9tr in fighter operation and management. In light of the government’s export plan, the project is expected to add around W60tr to the economy.
2) Aerospace technology development: We believe that technology transfers from countries with advanced aerospace technologies will give the Korean aerospace industry a chance to take a major leap forward. All in all, the KF-X project is forecast to have positive ripple effects on the aerospace and defense sectors (as well as certain other industries).
3) Strengthening of national security: The domestic development of fighter jets is anticipated to reinforce Korea’s aerial defense and capabilities in joint military operations. And easier operation and maintenance (relative to imported jets) should help increase fighter utilization.
Source: MND, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: MND, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2008 2013 2018F 2021F 2025F
Low-endMedium-endHigh-end
(units)
Number of fighter jets considered appropriate
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Defense upgrade costs (L)
YoY growth (R)
(Wtr) (%)
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LCH/LAH development
1. Replacement of aging attack helicopters
In a 2008 report on armed helicopter deployment plans, the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) advised that the defense ministry should only focus on the development of high-end and low-end models because domestically produced mid-end attack helicopter models based on the Korean Utility Helicopter (KUH) platform could not compete with the equally-sized Apache.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff decided in 2009 to heed KIDA’s advice, with the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET) and the Ministry of National Defense (MND) giving assent in 2010. For about one year thereafter, the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) and the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) led R&D efforts for LAH and LCH, respectively. KAI participated in such efforts as a prototype maker.
2. KAI searching for LCH and LAH development partners
In July 2014, KAI was designated the lead developer for LCH and LAH, and discussions are underway to select foreign partners for development. The company plans to develop an LCH platform by 2020 and an LAH platform by 2022 (based on the LCH platform).
Figure 13. KUH model
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 14. LAH Figure 15. LCH
Source: KAI, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KAI, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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MRO market
1. Civil aircraft MRO market to expand
The aircraft MRO business is largely divided into depot maintenance and performance-based logistics (PBL). Recently, amid LCC-driven expansion of the domestic civil aviation industry, the Korean government has been supporting the growth of aircraft MRO providers. We project the domestic aircraft MRO market to grow to W2.5tr by 2020.
Figure 16. Depot maintenance
Source: KAI, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 17. KAI’s MRO businesses
Source: KAI, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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2. MRO business competition to intensify
On January 19th, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced a plan to support the growth of the domestic aircraft maintenance industry. This project will provide customized support to establish specialized MRO providers and facilitate the creation of an MRO cluster.
The ministry plans to support a specialized MRO provider that formulates a concrete business plan and settles on a site location after discussions with the local government. Specifically, the ministry will help the MRO provider secure facilities and orders and acquire advanced maintenance technology via defense offset agreements. Over the long term, this project aims to expand the aircraft MRO business by nurturing MRO exporters and jointly sourcing parts.
Regarding bidding for the MRO project, KAI (Sacheon), Asiana Airlines and Boeing (Cheongju), Incheon International Airport (Incheon), and Korean Air (Gimhae) are expected to compete. In addition, Airbus is also likely to create a consortium to participate in the bidding.
We believe the government is unlikely to make a final decision on the project until 2016, as it could generate disputes and controversies (e.g., claims of preferential treatment, etc.)
Figure 18. Status of domestic infrastructure
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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T-X project
1. US to replace its jet trainers via the T-X program
The T-X program was established to allow the United States Air Force to buy a new two-seat jet trainer for fast-jet training to replace the Northrop T-38 Talon. The bidding is expected to start in 2H16 and finish in 2017. About 350 aircraft (worth US$11bn) are expected to be ordered to replace the T-38. Given that a total of 546 T-38 units are currently in operation, an additional 300 aircraft could be ordered thereafter. As such, the total project value could reach more than W20tr.
2. Competitors
KAI plans to bid for the T-X project with the T-50, which the company has jointly developed with Lockheed Martin. The company’s biggest competitor is a consortium of Boeing and Saab, which plans to develop a new jet trainer for the project. We believe competitors will have no choice but to develop new aircraft, as the T-50 is superior to competitors’ existing jet trainers.
The M-346, which was jointly developed by General Dynamics and Alenia Aermacchi, is considered inappropriate for 5G fighter jet training due to its low (transonic) speed. A prototype developed by Northrop Grumman and Scaled Composites, which is scheduled to begin test flights this year, is emerging as the strongest competitor to the T-50. In addition, BAE Systems’ Hawk Mk.128 and Textron AirLand’s Scorpion are also considered competitors to the T-50.
3. Risks and expectations
Competition to win the T-X project (worth at least W12tr) is expected to be fierce. There is also a possibility that Lockheed Martin might participate in the bid on its own. Lockheed Martin is known to have been developing a new advanced jet trainer since 2010. Although the company has not produced an advanced trainer jet yet, it is likely to have built up knowledge and experience through the joint development and improvement of the T-50 with KAI.
It is worth noting that the US Air Force seems highly likely to award the contract to a US participant. If KAI maintains its partnership with Lockheed Martin and the consortium manages to land the project, it would pave the way for KAI’s accelerated growth, driven by US-bound exports. In an effort to support the KAI-Lockheed Martin consortium, the Korean government selected Lockheed Martin’s F-35 for its next-generation fighter jet acquisition project.
Figure 19. T-38 Figure 20. T-50
Source: Google, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Google, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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Korean aviation industry
1. Overview
The aviation industry is engaged in the production, upgrade/modification, and maintenance of aircraft, parts/components, and terrestrial systems. The industry requires comprehensive technologies ranging from machinery to electronic, electric, and materials.
Broadly, the aviation industry can be divided into aircraft production and operation. The aircraft production segment is again divided into parts/materials and finished aircraft, while the operation segment includes MRO and terrestrial support systems.
Classified by use, military aircraft include fighters, surveillance aircraft, and trainers, while civil aircraft include passenger planes and light planes. Classified by propulsion technique, aircraft can be categorized into propeller-driven aircraft and jet planes. They are also classified by type of wings as either fixed-wing (fighters and trainers) or rotary-wing (helicopters) aircraft.
Figure 21. Aviation industry
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 22. Combat aircraft
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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2. Domestic aviation industry’s supply chain and recent trend
The aviation industries of North America and Europe have flourished, driven by Boeing and Airbus. As such, these two regions have well-established supply chains, composed of finished aircraft manufacturers, tier-one suppliers, tier-two suppliers, and other partners.
The domestic aviation industry, meanwhile, is only in a nascent stage. Its supply chain, which is still not firmly established, consists of parts suppliers/OEMs, R&D partners, and intermediate/finished goods producers. The industry’s ecosystem has been developing at a slow pace due to 1) the lack of finished aircraft producers, 2) the closed network of major global players, 3) technological challenges and lack of experience, 4) concerns about the potential formation of an oligopoly, and 5) the large capex burden.
Recently, however, the industry’s ecosystem has been improving markedly for several reasons. First, leading players, namely KAI and Korean Air, are seeing increased orders and an expansion in outsourcing. Second, domestic companies have built up technologies and experience. Third, SMEs with strong technological competitiveness, namely ASTK, are rising sharply on the back of strong exports. Lastly, financing conditions have become more favorable thanks to the increase in IPOs.
Figure 23. Domestic aircraft industry supply chain
Source: Korea Aerospace Industries Association, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 24. Change in domestic aviation industry
Source: Korea Aerospace Industries Association, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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3. Domestic aircraft industry’s history and technological trends
The domestic aircraft industry began with the assembly of military aircraft; in the 1980s, for example, Korean Air assembled MD 500 helicopters for Hughes Aircraft Company. Since the mid-1980s, Korean companies have also been involved in the civil aircraft industry, exporting parts to advanced aircraft makers (through partnerships such as defense offsets and countertrades). In the 2000s, Korean firms began to engage in R&D efforts to develop next-generation aircraft, including medium-altitude UAVs and smart UAVs. Korean firms are also currently preparing to develop attack helicopters.
Korea has acquired a strong competitive edge in production technologies (e.g., airframe design and assembly), and is attempting to sharpen its competitiveness in the aircraft design and development segments, as well. According to industry data, Korea’s civil aircraft production technologies have reached 90% of advanced country levels, while testing and designing technologies have each reached 70%.
Broadly, fixed-wing aircraft include fighter jets, ground-attack aircraft, electronic-warfare aircraft, surveillance aircraft, maritime patrol aircraft, transport aircraft, aerial refueling aircraft, and trainer aircraft. According to industry data, giving a value of 100 to US technology, the level of Korea’s fixed-wing aircraft technology is 73—the 13th highest in the world.
As for rotary-wing aircraft, the completion of Surion (a utility helicopter) made Korea the 11th nation in the world to develop a homegrown helicopter. Korea started developing Surion in June 2006 and shipped the first unit in August 2009, and the aircraft succeeded in its maiden flight in March 2010. With Surion, Korea’s rotary-wing aircraft technology level advanced to 77, the 11th highest in the world. Currently, Korea is engaged in efforts to develop other types of helicopters.
Remote-controlled UAVs are capable of performing dangerous missions. Korea is competitive in both small and large UAV technology, and the level of domestic UAV technology stands at 84, the seventh highest in the world.
Currently, more than 50% of the key requirements for unmanned systems are based on IT technologies. Given Korea’s strong IT capabilities, we expect the domestic development of UAVs to accelerate faster than other areas.
Figure 25. Level of domestic aircraft technology: Strong edge in airframe design and assembly
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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Figure 26. Level of Korean fixed-wing aircraft technology: 13th in global ranking
Source: Defense Agency of Technology and Quality, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 27. Level of Korean rotary-wing aircraft technology: 11th in global ranking
Source: Defense Agency of Technology and Quality, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 28. Level of Korean UAV technology: 7th in global ranking
Source: Defense Agency of Technology and Quality, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
10095 93 92 91 87 84 84 84 84 80
75 75 75 72 7164
56
Leading industrial Advanced Developed Underdeveloped
10096 94 91 91 91
84 83 80 78 77 77 75 7369 69 66
62
Leading industrial Advanced Developed Underdeveloped
10096 93 91
87 86 86 83 81 7975 75 73 73 72
65 6457
Leading industrial Advanced Developed Underdeveloped
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4. Overseas technology trends
Recently, the global aircraft industry has been focused on UAVs, environmentally friendly/highly efficient aircraft, high-performance aircraft, and IT convergence systems.
The ultimate goal of developing UAVs is to enable fully autonomous flight. The trend of unmanned systems is spreading beyond military aircraft into the civil aircraft arena. More than 187 companies in 37 countries are participating in UAV projects. Currently, around 400 projects are underway.
The US is striving for the convergence of UAV technology with existing, manned system technology. Israel, meanwhile, is focusing on the diversification, scale, and survivability of UAVs, while France aims to have UAVs replace its Rafale fighters by 2020.
Table 4. Development timeline of UAV technology
Period Details Models
1960s-70s
Initial UAV - Recorded video during Vietnam War AQM-34
1970s-80s
Improved UAV
- Used as decoy and fighter vehicles during Gulf War
- Improved models (return rate of 90%) used to record
during Gulf War
Ryan 147
Mastiff
1980s-90s
UAV systems
- Low-altitude and short-distance unmanned systems used
during Lebanon conflicts and Gulf War
- Real-time spy reconnaissance,
Searcher
Pioneer
CL-89
Hunter
1990s-2000s
High-performance
UAV
- Medium-altitude endurance system emerged during
Afghanistan War
- Attack function
Predator
2000s-
Strategic UAV
systems
- High altitude endurance system
- Ability to fly for more than 72 hours in the stratosphere
- Private-invested development
- System integration technology
- Real-time communications
Global Hawk
Smart UAV
Helios
Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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The trend toward environmentally friendly and highly efficient aircraft is most evident in the commercial airplane segment (which accounts for over 70% of the global civil aircraft market). Since the 2000s, aircraft manufacturers have been evaluating new aircraft based on their level of operational cost savings. The Boeing B787, for example, with a fuselage and wings made up mostly of carbon-fiber reinforced composites, reduces fuel costs by 20% relative to existing models.
Table 5. Development timeline of green/high-efficiency technology in civil aircraft
Period Details Models
1950s-60s
1G civil aircraft
- Turbojet engines
・ High-speed flying
B707
DC-8
1960s-70s
2G civil aircraft
- Turbofan engine
・ Improved economic feasibility
- Short- to medium-distance flying
B737
DC-9
1970s-80s
3G civil aircraft
- The emergence of large-size aircraft enabled low-cost and
large-scale transportation
B747
A300
DC-10
1980s-90s
4G civil aircraft
- Economic recovery following oil shocks
・ Replacement of old aircraft
- Low-fuel and low-noise engines; Digital technology
A320
B757/767
1990s-
5G civil aircraft
- Growing global demand for transportation; High demand for
- Concurrent engineering; Preference for light-weight aircraft
・ Simultaneous progress in designing and manufacturing
・ Embracing composite materials
A330/380
B777/747A
B787/A350
B737 Max
Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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The US has been the most aggressive in developing high-performance aircraft. Since 1993, the country has developed attack aircraft, including the F-35. The UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain jointly developed the Eurofighter, an attack aircraft that features functions such as mobility, supercruise, and thrust vector control.
Table 6. Development timeline of combat aircraft technology
Period Details Models
1945-55
1G combat aircraft
- Commercialization of hypersonic jets
- Based on avionics
-
MiG-17
F-86
Yak-23
F-104
1955-60s
2G combat aircraft
- Hypersonic jet
- 1G radar system
- Equipped with missiles
F-100
F-104,
MiG-21
F-8
1960s-70s
3G combat aircraft
- Improved equipment functions
- Air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles
- Multi-purpose
F-4,
MirageF.1
MiG-23
Harrier
1970s-90s
4G combat aircraft
- Developed during Cold War
- Improved mobility
- Precision-guided weapons
- Improved survival rates
Mig-29
F-14
F-15
F-16
1990s-2000s
4.5G combat aircraft
- Super precision-guided weapons
- Integrated sensor systems
- Limited stealth
Rafale
EFA
Su-35
F/A-18E/F
2000s-
5G combat aircraft
- Stealth
- Mobility, high survival rate
- Advanced integrated sensor systems
F-35
F/A-22
PAK FA
Su-47
Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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Global peer valuation
Table 7. Valuation table (Wbn, %, W)
Aircraft makers Aircraft parts manufacturers
KAI BoeingLockheed
Martin Airbus Bombardier Avg. ASTK Precision AVIC Zodiac Spirit
Figure 29. Share performance of Boeing Figure 30. Share performance of Airbus
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 31. Share performance of Lockheed Martin Figure 32. Share performance of Spirit AeroSystems Holdings
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 33. Share performance of Triumph Group Figure 34. Share performance of Precision Castparts
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 35. Share performance of AVIC aircraft Figure 36. Share performance of China Avionics Systems
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 37. Share performance of KAI Figure 38. Share performance of ASTK
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 39. Share performance of Orbitech Figure 40. Share performance of Hize Aero
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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Aviation
22
August 27, 2015
KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Home-grown fighter jets: From concept to reality
Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) is Korea’s only manufacturer and developer of aircraft (T-50, Surion, etc.). The company also produces civil aircraft parts for Boeing and Airbus and engages in aircraft upgrades/modification, MRO, training system development, and satellites.
In addition to the LAH and LCH projects, KAI has also been tapped as the preferred bidder for the KF-X development project. The company is essentially tasked with all of Korea’s major civil/military aircraft development and production projects.
Order backlog to hit record in 2015; Robust growth for the next three years
For 2015, we expect KAI to win orders of W1.1tr for aircraft, W1.9tr for parts, and W7tr for the KF-X project, bringing total order backlog to W18-19tr. Such strong new orders and backlog should keep the company growing at 20% CAGR over the next three years.
Other sources of growth
1) MRO business: The MRO market is expected to grow on the back of the increasing entry of low-cost carriers (LCCs). KAI intends to expand its MRO operations to take advantage of the growth of LCCs and government support. That said, competition is likely to be fierce, with Korean Air and a foreign consortium led by Airbus also battling for a greater share of the market.
2) T-X program and other: For the US Air Force’s next-generation trainer (T-X) program, KAI plans to propose a version of its T-50 trainers together with Lockheed Martin. The T-X program will involve supplying around 350 trainers worth up to W11tr, with mass production beginning in 2020.
Initiate with Buy and TP of W143,000
We initiate our coverage on KAI with a Buy rating and target price of W143,000. Our target price is based on a P/E of 30x our 2016F EPS of W3,179, to which we applied a 50% premium in light of the company’s high growth potential compared to global peers, as well as the Korean government’s long-term industry support. We see potential for a highly profitable business, with ROE forecast to reach 22.3% in 2016.
We believe KAI is well-positioned for long-term growth, as the company is likely to dominate the development and production of most civil/military aircraft as the unparalleled leader of the domestic aviation industry. In our view, this makes the company a great retirement stock from a medium- and long-term perspective.
Korea Aerospace Industries (047810 KS) Leader of Korea’s aviation industry
FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F
Revenue (Wbn) 1,535 2,016 2,315 2,848 3,583 4,423
OP (Wbn) 126 125 161 304 398 491
OP margin (%) 8.2 6.2 7.0 10.7 11.1 11.1
NP (Wbn) 74 90 111 232 310 391
EPS (W) 760 924 1,140 2,383 3,179 4,008
ROE (%) 8.6 9.7 11.1 20.4 22.3 22.8
P/E (x) 34.0 31.4 34.9 38.1 28.6 22.7
P/B (x) 2.8 2.9 3.7 7.1 5.8 4.7
Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Aviation Industry
(Initiate) Buy
Target Price (12M, W) 143,000
Share Price (08/26/15, W) 90,800
Expected Return 57%
OP (15F, Wbn) 304
Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 285
EPS Growth (15F, %) 109.1
Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 25.0
P/E (15F, x) 38.1
Market P/E (15F, x) 10.9
KOSPI 1,894.09
Market Cap (Wbn) 8,851
Shares Outstanding (mn) 97
Free Float (%) 46.0
Foreign Ownership (%) 13.6
Beta (12M) 1.54
52-Week Low 35,450
52-Week High 103,500
(%) 1M 6M 12M
Absolute 0.9 83.1 156.1
Relative 9.0 92.6 179.7
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Aviation
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Company overview
Homegrown fighter jets: From concept to reality
KAI is Korea’s only manufacturer and developer of aircraft (T-50, Surion, etc.). The company also produces civil aircraft parts for Boeing and Airbus and engages in aircraft upgrades/modification, MRO, training system development, and satellites.
In addition to the LAH and LCH projects, KAI has also been tapped as the preferred bidder for the KF-X development project (with an annual development cost of W600-700bn). The company is essentially tasked with all of Korea’s major civil/military aircraft development and production projects.
Revenue breakdown: 40% for defense, 35% for parts, and 25% for aircraft exports
In 1H15, the defense unit accounted for 37.8% of KAI’s total revenue, followed by parts (36.2%) and aircraft exports (26.0%). Revenue contribution from the defense unit increased sharply on higher T-50 exports. The company’s order backlog stood at around W11.4tr, of which 51% is for parts, 35% for the defense unit, and 14% for aircraft exports. If the KF-X contract is finalized within this year, the company’s total order backlog will likely increase to W18-19tr at the end of the year.
KAI’s largest shareholder is KDB, with a 26.75% stake
KAI’s largest shareholder is the Korea Development Bank (KDB) with a 26.75% stake, followed by Hanwha Techwin and Hyundai Motor Company (10% each), the National Pension Service (7.61%), and DIP Holdings (5.0%). Foreign ownership stood at 14.5% as of August 12th.
Figure 41. Order backlog (based 2Q15) Figure 42. Major shareholders
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
National defense
19%
Overseas business (aircraft)
15%Parts/MRO
66%
Order backlogW11.4 tr
Korea Development Bank, 27%
Hyundai Motor, 10%
Hanhwa Techwin, 10%
DIP Holdings, 5%
NPS, 8%
Other, 40%
Aviation
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KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Orders and order backlog
Order backlog to reach W18-19tr at end-2015
In 1H15, KAI won orders of W1.8tr for parts, W200bn for the defense unit, and W400bn for aircraft exports, bringing its order backlog to W11.4tr.
For 2015, we project the company to receive aircraft export orders (W1.1tr; to Botswana, Turkey, Iraq, etc.) as well as parts orders from Boeing and Airbus (W1.9tr). If the KF-X contract is finalized, its year-end order backlog will likely reach W18-19tr, 80% higher than the level at end-2014 (W11tr).
Lead developer of LCH and LAH
KAI was selected to lead the LCH and LAH development projects in 2014. The company plans to develop an LCH platform by 2020 and then use the LCH platform to develop LAHs by 2022. Once an overseas partner is designated, this project will pick up speed. We estimate overall development costs to reach W600bn, and mass production is planned for 2022.
Figure 43. New orders trend Figure 44. Order backlog trend
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 45. New orders forecast for 2015 Figure 46. Order backlog by business
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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New orders forecastW10 tr
National defense
44%
Overseas business (aircraft)
14%
Parts/MRO42%
Order backlog forecastW18.2tr
Aviation
25
August 27, 2015
KDB Daewoo Securities Research
To enter hyper growth in 2015
We anticipate that 2015 will mark the beginning of a hyper growth phase for KAI, with revenue of W2.85tr (+23% YoY) and operating profit of W303.6bn (+88% YoY). We expect the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25% through 2017, driven by 1) stable sales at the defense and aircraft units and 2) expansion of aircraft exports. This year, the company will begin exporting T-50 aircraft to Iraq and the Philippines, and KT-1 aircraft to Peru.
Once the company takes KF-X orders in 2015, it should generate around W600-700bn in related annual revenue through 2023. This value is equivalent to more than 20% of the company’s 2015F revenue. Furthermore, the company is likely to generate around W150bn in annual revenue from the KUH project for which it has been selected as a preferred bidder. As such, we expect the company to deliver revenue growth of more than 25%.
Profitability to improve on lower fixed cost burden and the won’s weakness
Backed by robust revenue growth, operating profit will also likely expand sharply thanks to lower fixed cost burden. In particular, T-50 revenue growth is likely to lower the revenue contribution of lower-margin civil aircraft parts. In addition, profitability is expected to improve on the won’s weakness. Of note, given that the won has depreciated by 10% YoY since the beginning of 3Q, operating profit is anticipated to increase sharply during the quarter.
On the non-operating side, interest expenses are likely to increase through 3Q due to borrowings for working capital. However, we believe that borrowings will decrease at the end of the year, as considerable receivables should be collected.
Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 47. Revenue and OP margin (annual) Figure 48. Revenue and OP margin (quarterly)
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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Aviation
26
August 27, 2015
KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Investment recommendation and valuation
Initiate coverage with a Buy rating
We initiate our coverage on KAI with a Buy rating, as:
1) The civil aircraft industry will likely deliver steady growth in the medium to long term.
2) The Korean government is anticipated to invest in and support the military aircraft business over the medium to long term.
3) The company is expected to display steady growth and operating profit on the back of a massive order backlog.
4) Sound cash flow and accumulated technological prowess should maximize the company’s corporate value.
TP of W143,000
We present a target price of W143,000 for KAI. Our target price is based on a P/E of 30x our 2016F EPS of W3,179, to which we applied a 50% premium in light of the company’s high growth potential compared to global peers, as well as the Korean government’s long-term industry support. We see potential for a highly profitable business, with ROE forecast to reach 22.3% in 2016. We think that KAI is a promising investment, as the company can generate solid cash flow in the long term. (See Global Peer Valuation on page 19.)
We believe KAI is well-positioned for long-term growth, as the company is likely to dominate the development and production of most civil/military aircraft as the unparalleled leader of the domestic aviation industry. In our view, this makes the company a great retirement stock from a medium- and long-term perspective. In addition, the outlook is bright for the company’s T-50 exports and civil aircraft parts.
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Aviation
29
August 27, 2015
KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Korea’s second-largest aircraft parts supplier
Established in 2002, ASTK is Korea’s second-largest aircraft parts supplier, with Boeing as its biggest client. The company produces stringers, bulkheads, and sections 48 (rear fuselage), and is the only domestic company aside from KAI capable of manufacturing fuselages.
To meet increasing demand for single-aisle aircraft in emerging countries, Boeing is ramping up its 737 assembly line and plans to raise its monthly capacity to 52 units per month by 2018. At present, ASTK supplies around five sections 48 for the Boeing 737-900 every month, but intends to eventually increase its monthly capacity to up to nine.
Investment points: Ample order backlog, new orders, acquisition synergies
We estimate ASTK’s order backlog stood at W1.11tr at end-1H15, the majority of which is for Boeing’s most popular jet, the 737. Given the recent surge in civil aircraft demand and increased outsourcing of parts production, ASTK should see increasing orders through customer and product diversification.
For 2015, we see order backlog rising to W1.5-2tr, driven by additional orders from Boeing and offset orders from Airbus and Lockheed Martin. Backed by massive order inflows and backlog, we forecast the company to maintain rapid growth of over 20% CAGR for the next three years.
ASTK’s acquisition of Orbitech should help the company expand its order book, boost capacity, and save costs. ASTK plans to concentrate on large assemblies and fuselages, while Orbitech will narrow its focus on machinery assembly. ASTK should also see more outsourcing operations following the acquisition, which should prove favorable to margins. The deal is also anticipated to boost ASTK’s production capacity (currently W120bn) by roughly W50bn.
Initiate with Buy and TP of W49,000
We initiate our coverage on ASTK with a Buy call and target price of W49,000. Our target price is based on a market cap equal to 45% of the lower end of our 2015 order backlog forecast (W1.5tr). KAI, the company’s only comparable domestic peer, is currently valued at 45% of our year-end backlog estimate (W20tr).
On average, global aircraft parts suppliers are trading at a P/E of 71x, P/B of 5x, and EV/EBITDA of 30x, suggesting traditional valuation methods are unsuitable. During good times, the stock prices of aircraft parts suppliers react more sensitively to industry conditions, orders, and margins than to revenue and profit. Looking forward, we highlight three investment points: order backlog growth, entry into the offset market, and margin expansion.
ASTK (067390 KQ) A success story in aircraft parts
FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F
Revenue (Wbn) 44 61 67 82 102 127
OP (Wbn) 4 -4 -3 3 6 10
OP margin (%) 9.1 -6.6 -4.5 3.7 5.9 7.9
NP (Wbn) 9 -7 -8 2 5 9
EPS (W) 1,639 -888 -630 116 359 656
ROE (%) 72.5 -35.5 -21.4 3.4 9.8 15.7
P/E (x) - - - 253.6 82.1 44.9
P/B (x) - - 2.3 8.5 7.7 6.5
Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Aviation Industry
(Initiate) Buy
Target Price (12M, W) 49,000
Share Price (08/26/15, W) 29,500
Expected Return 66%
OP (15F, Wbn) 3
Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 3
EPS Growth (15F, %) -
Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 25.0
P/E (15F, x) 253.6
Market P/E (15F, x) 10.9
KOSDAQ 667.44
Market Cap (Wbn) 407
Shares Outstanding (mn) 14
Free Float (%) 75.7
Foreign Ownership (%) 11.4
Beta (12M) 1.10
52-Week Low 7,280
52-Week High 36,150
(%) 1M 6M 12M
Absolute -17.8 106.3 0.0
Relative -4.4 90.7 0.0
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AeroSpace Technology of Korea
KOSDAQ
Aviation
30
August 27, 2015
KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Korea’s second-largest aircraft parts supplier
Established in 2002, ASTK is Korea’s second-largest aircraft parts supplier, with Boeing as its biggest client. The company produces stringers, bulkheads, and sections 48 (rear fuselage), and is the only domestic company aside from KAI capable of manufacturing fuselages.
A section 48 (the part of the fuselage on which tail wings are mounted) consists of about 6,400 parts. Spirit AeroSystems had been the exclusive supplier of the Boeing 737’s sections 48, but ASTK won orders in 2013 thanks to surging demand and Boeing’s strategy of increasing outsourcing.
Currently, Boeing’s monthly capacity for the 737 stands at 42 units. To meet increasing demand for single-aisle aircraft in emerging countries, Boeing is ramping up its Boeing 737 assembly line and plans to raise its monthly capacity to 52 units by 2018. At present, ASTK supplies around five sections 48 for the Boeing 737-900 every month, but intends to eventually increase its monthly capacity to up to nine. Currently, sections 48 are the major growth driver for ASTK, contributing to the company’s earnings turnaround in 1H. ASTK’s cumulative section 48 production volume reached the 100 mark in 1H15.
Figure 54. ASTK’s product portfolio Figure 55. Section 48 for the Boeing 737
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 56. Boeing’s monthly production plan for the B737 Figure 57. Civil aircraft market outlook
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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Aviation
31
August 27, 2015
KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Ample order backlog and new orders
We estimate ASTK’s order backlog stood at W1.11tr at end-1H15, the majority of which is for Boeing’s most popular jet, the 737. In the aviation industry, after a company is selected as a supplier of parts, it usually continues supplying the parts until the relevant aircraft model is discontinued. Given the recent surge in civil aircraft demand and increased outsourcing of parts production, ASTK should see increasing orders through customer and product diversification.
In our view, ASTK is likely to see a further increase in orders. The company recently won orders for the Boeing 737 MAX, and is expected to receive orders from Triumph Vought, another tier-one supplier for Boeing.
In addition, ASTK will likely make a foray into the military jet offset market in 2H, which has so far been dominated by only a few players in Korea. Recently, Airbus’s A330 MRTT won the Defense Acquisition Program Administration’s (DAPA) future air-to-air refueling and transport aircraft project. As Airbus is believed to have offered an offset deal, ASTK is expected to receive orders from the aircraft company in 2H. In addition, ASTK will also likely be selected as a partner for Lockheed Martin’s offset arrangement in relation to the DAPA’s purchase of the F-35 fighter jets.
Figure 58. ASTK’s order trend Figure 59. ASTK’s order backlog as of 1H15
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 60. ASTK’s main clients Figure 61. New orders expected from Airbus, Lockheed Martin
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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- B757 MDCD
- Bulkhead
- Section 48- B747 after-bodyassembly
- Rear spar/ jack screw
- Sec. 48 increment- B737 Max
Aviation
32
August 27, 2015
KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Synergies from Orbitech acquisition
In August, ASTK acquired a 16.6% stake in Orbitech, which specializes in machinery assembly for aircraft parts. Last year, the company formed a technological partnership with ASTK and successfully landed an order from Spirit AeroSystems. The company is now exclusively supplying bulkheads for the Boeing 737-900 via ASTK.
ASTK’s acquisition of Orbitech should help the company expand its order book, boost capacity, and save costs. ASTK plans to concentrate on large assemblies and fuselages, while Orbitech will narrow its focus on machinery assembly. ASTK should also see more outsourcing operations following the acquisition, which should prove favorable to margins. The deal is also anticipated to boost ASTK’s production capacity (currently W120bn) by roughly W50bn.
We forecast Orbitech’s aircraft parts revenue to jump from W2.3bn in 2014 to W11bn in 2015, W22bn in 2016, and W34bn in 2017. As revenue gains momentum, the aircraft parts division should swing from a loss in 2014 to a profit in 2H15, pushing up ASTK’s equity-method gains.
Figure 62. Orbitech’s machine facilities Figure 63. Business strategy of ASTK & Orbitech
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities
Figure 64. Orbitech’s aircraft business Figure 65. Change in domestic aviation industry
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
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Civil aircraft market boom
Aviation
33
August 27, 2015
KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Earnings outlook
ASTK recorded 1H revenue of W36.9bn (+16% YoY), operating profit of W0.7bn (turning to black YoY), and net profit of W0.4bn (turning to black YoY). Earnings growth was driven by: 1) an increase in rear fuselage (section 48) production volume and yield, 2) the won’s depreciation against the dollar, and 3) a decrease in financing expenses.
We believe the company turned an important corner with operating profit returning to black, especially after posting operating losses over the past two years. This was attributable to the company’s investments of over W30bn after taking large-scale orders in 2011. Although profit levels are still modest, the company’s earnings turnaround along with its order backlog of over W1tr and new order momentum should accelerate an improvement in its fundamentals. We expect to see continued growth in both top and bottom lines in 2H.
For the full year, we project ASTK’s revenue at W82.2bn (+23% YoY), operating profit at W2.5bn (turning to black YoY), and net profit at W1.6bn (turning to black YoY). In light of the robust global aviation industry and strong order growth, we believe the company’s margins will rise steadily going forward on the back of a revenue CAGR of 20%
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Aviation
36
August 27, 2015
KDB Daewoo Securities Research
An aircraft parts supplier with a stable cash cow
Founded in 1991, Orbitech mainly provided nuclear energy safety services, such as radiation management and in-service inspections (IS), before entering the aircraft parts business in 2013. Last year, the company formed a technological partnership with ASTK and successfully landed an order from Spirit AeroSystems to supply parts for Boeing. In August 2015, Orbitech was acquired by its business partner ASTK.
Investment points: ASTK acquisition, aircraft unit turnaround, and cash cow
We believe the acquisition by ASTK will generate meaningful synergies. Regarding the aviation business, ASTK plans to concentrate on large assemblies and fuselage orders, while Orbitech intends to specialize on machinery assembly as a supplier to its parent company. Orbitech should see steady order growth, backed by ASTK’s export competitiveness. The company should also benefit from profit enhancements via reductions in indirect costs (development, sales, etc.) and investment efficiency.
ASTK has a current order backlog of W1.1tr and is expected to attract strong new orders over the next couple of years. This should lift Orbitech’s order backlog to W400-500bn from W150bn currently.
In the coming years, we forecast Orbitech’s aircraft parts revenue to jump from W2.3bn in 2014 to W11bn in 2015, W22bn in 2016, and W34bn in 2017. Revenue growth should be supported by the increased production of Boeing’s 737, as Orbitech is the exclusive supplier of bulkheads for ASTK’s section 48. As revenue gains momentum, the aircraft parts division should swing from a loss in 2014 to a profit in 2H15. The company’s other divisions (nuclear energy and ISI), which are licensed businesses with high entry barriers, should continue to serve as profitable cash cows.
Looking ahead to 2016, we expect the company to deliver more meaningful earnings growth, with revenue of W42bn (+41% YoY), operating profit of W5bn (+259% YoY), and net profit of W4.6bn (+874% YoY).
Initiate with Buy and TP of W16,000
We initiate our coverage on Orbitech with a Buy recommendation and target price of W16,000. We applied a P/E of 38x, the average multiple of global aircraft suppliers, to our 2016F EPS, and assigned a 20% premium to account for 1) the company’s strong order momentum via ASTK, 2) profitable cash cow business, and 3) above-industry ROE. Looking forward, we highlight two investment points: 1) robust new orders from parent company ASTK, and 2) rapid margin recovery.
Orbitech (046120 KQ) A combination of growth and stability
FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F
Revenue (Wbn) 37 15 21 30 42 55
OP (Wbn) 0 -5 -2 1 5 9
OP margin (%) 0.0 -33.3 -9.5 3.3 11.9 16.4
NP (Wbn) 0 -9 -4 0 5 9
EPS (W) 54 -1,142 -472 37 357 660
ROE (%) 1.7 -42.8 -25.0 3.0 21.8 30.7
P/E (x) 62.0 - - 259.0 26.5 14.4
P/B (x) 0.9 1.3 1.1 5.4 4.5 3.4
Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Aviation Industry
(Initiate) Buy
Target Price (12M, W) 16,000
Share Price (08/26/15, W) 9,480
Expected Return 69%
OP (15F, Wbn) 1
Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 1
EPS Growth (15F, %) -
Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 25.0
P/E (15F, x) 259.0
Market P/E (15F, x) 10.9
KOSDAQ 667.44
Market Cap (Wbn) 103
Shares Outstanding (mn) 11
Free Float (%) 80.4
Foreign Ownership (%) 0.4
Beta (12M) 1.17
52-Week Low 1,600
52-Week High 11,800
(%) 1M 6M 12M
Absolute 9.2 273.2 274.0
Relative 27.0 245.1 218.4
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Orbitech KOSDAQ
Aviation
37
August 27, 2015
KDB Daewoo Securities Research
A combination of growth and stability
Founded in 1991, Orbitech mainly provided nuclear energy safety services, such as radiation management and in-service inspections (IS), before entering the aircraft parts business in 2013. The company built an aircraft parts factory in Haman, South Gyeongsang Province, in end-2013. And last year, the company formed a technological partnership with ASTK and successfully landed an order from Spirit AeroSystems to supply parts for Boeing.
Orbitech’s aircraft parts capex has thus far totaled W25bn, which seems a huge investment in light of its 2013 revenue of W14.7bn. The massive capex and initial losses have hurt the company’s financial health, with debt-to-equity ratio and net debt worsening to 228% and W15.2bn, respectively, in end-2014 (vs. 31% and net cash status in end-2012).
However, ASTK acquired a 16.6% stake in Orbitech in August 2015, improving the company’s financial position quickly. On the back of restructuring, improving aircraft business margins, and improving financial position, Orbitech is showing strong growth potential and stability.
Orbitech aims to reach a break-even point in the aircraft business this year by improving process efficiency, saving costs, and directly purchasing raw materials. The nuclear energy safety service unit is acting as a cash cow. We project the company’s debt-to-equity ratio to improve to 50-70%.
Table 11. Company history
Year Details
1991 Orbitech established; Started NDT business
2005 Expanded into nuclear power-related businesses (radiation safety management, measurement of personal radiation exposure, etc.)
2010 Listed on KOSDAQ
2013 Advanced into the aircraft precision components market; Built a factory in Haman
2014 Forged a technological partnership with ASTK; Signed a contract to supply aircraft precision components with US-based Spirit
2015 CEO Kim Hee-won of ASTK acquired management control of Orbitech
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities
Figure 70. Aircraft parts factory Figure 71. Aircraft parts pipeline
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities
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Expecting synergies with ASTK
We believe the acquisition by ASTK will generate meaningful synergies. Regarding the aviation business, ASTK plans to concentrate on large assemblies and fuselage orders, while Orbitech intends to specialize on machinery assembly as a supplier to its parent company.
Orbitech should see steady order growth, backed by ASTK’s export competitiveness. The company should also benefit from profit enhancements via reductions in indirect costs (development, sales, etc.) and investment efficiency. As for ASTK, acquisition of Orbitech should ensure stable business cooperation (ahead of order growth) and greater price competitiveness. We believe this deal will yield a win-win situation for both companies.
In the coming years, we forecast Orbitech’s aircraft parts revenue to jump from W2.3bn in 2014 to W11bn in 2015, W22bn in 2016, and W34bn in 2017. Revenue growth should be supported by the increased production of Boeing’s 737, as Orbitech is the exclusive supplier of bulkheads for ASTK’s section 48.
As revenue gains momentum, the aircraft parts division should swing from a loss in 2014 to a profit in 2H15. The company’s other divisions (nuclear energy and ISI), which are licensed businesses with high entry barriers, should continue to serve as profitable cash cows.
Figure 72. Business strategy of ASTK & Orbitech Figure 73. Sales breakdown (2014)
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities
Figure 74. Aircraft parts business revenue Figure 75. Net debt ratio
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities
Nuclear energy66%
Environment12%
ISI11%
Aerospace11%
1 2
11
22
34
0
10
20
30
40
13 14 15F 16F 17F
(Wbn)
Civil aircraft market boom
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Net debt (L)
Net debt ratio (R)
(Wbn) (%)
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Earnings outlook
In 2Q, Orbitech posted revenue of W7.8bn (+88% YoY), operating profit of W800mn (turning to black YoY), and a net profit of W500mn (turning to black YoY). OP margin reached 10.8%, hitting the highest level since 2010. Improved earnings were driven by: 1) revenue growth at the aircraft unit, 2) a decline in costs associated with restructuring and interest expenses, and 3) recovery of earnings at the nuclear safety service and IS units.
For 2H, we expect to see a temporary decline in nuclear revenue, as a contract with one of two nuclear sites is slated to expire. However, we expect top-line growth to continue, boosted by strong aircraft parts revenue. 2H margins will likely continue to turn around YoY, as the aircraft unit is likely to swing to a profit. Still, the pace of growth is likely to be slow, dragged down by a decline in nuclear safety service revenue.
Looking ahead to 2016, we expect the company to deliver more meaningful earnings growth, with revenue of W42bn (+41% YoY), operating profit of W5bn (+259% YoY), and net profit of W4.6bn (+874% YoY). In particular, the aircraft parts unit is forecast to generate revenue of W22bn (+100% YoY; 52% of overall revenue). In light of robust industry and order-taking, we expect the company to deliver revenue growth (CAGR of 36% over the next three years) and margin improvement.
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
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APPENDIX 1
Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History
Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price
KOREA AEROSPACE(047810) 08/26/2015 Buy 143,000 Orbitech(046120) 08/26/2015 Buy 16,000
AeroSpace Technology of
Korea(067390) 08/26/2015 Buy 49,000
Equity Ratings Distribution
Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell
72.36% 13.57% 14.07% 0.00%
* Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of June 30, 2015)
Disclosures
As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. has participated in issuance of the securities (including DR and IPO) of AeroSpace Technology of Korea
Inc., and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the companies covered in this report.
Analyst Certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean
securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions
expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this
report. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s
area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified
herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been
promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Daewoo Securities, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by
overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and
private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of
the Analyst or Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers
This report is published by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”), a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange.
Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such information has not been
independently verified and Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or
correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. If this report is an English
translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this
report. Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. This
report is for general information purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any
securities or other financial instruments. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of
the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any
laws and regulations or subject Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction should receive or make any use hereof.
Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and no part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings
Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell : Relative performance of -10%
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material
development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of
future earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic
conditions.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15
(W) KOREA AEROSPACE
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15
(W) AeroSpace Technology of Korea
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15
(W) Orbitech
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