Ready to begin. Failure Modes David L. Andra, Jr. Science and Operations Officer WFO Norman, Oklahoma.

Ready to begin

Failure Modes

David L. Andra, Jr.

Science and Operations Officer

WFO Norman, Oklahoma

Failure Mode:

The manner in which a system fails.

Examples

Technology - WSR-88D klystron fails preventing access to critical data.

Conceptual – Forecaster fails to recognize small storm as mini-supercell.

Organizational – Absence of well defined job roles and mission priorities leads to failure in SA.

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis

A technique employed by engineers to improve system

performance.

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis

1. Define failure mode.

2. Identify cause of failure.

3. Identify effects of failure.

4. Corrective action.

An Example Failure mode: Conceptual

Cause: Failed to identify mini-SC Mini-SC characteristics not understood by forecaster

Effects: Injuries and loss of life

Correction: Training for staff on mini-SC structure and evolution

Strategy to Improve

Try to eliminate the failure mode.

Minimize the severity of the failure.

Reduce the occurrence of the failure mode.

Improve the detection.

Other Considerations

Some failures are more preventable than others!

Examples Relatively easy to prevent:

Failure mode: Conceptual

Cause: Classic SC not recognized Forecaster only uses 0.5 deg R product

Effect: Loss of life, feature on Dateline

Correction: Training, etc.

Examples

Nearly impossible to prevent:Failure mode: Technological

Cause: mini-SC at long range and embedded stratiform pcpn, night, sparse population. Brief tornado.

Effect: mobile home destroyed with loss of life.

Correction: maybe better VCPs or new radar?

Ten Recent Disasters(since 1989)

Complete Complete EmbarrassmentEmbarrassment

AOGAOG

By Failure Mode

0

1

2

3

4

5

Technological

Conceptual

Organizational

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is only a tool to identify potential or actual points of failure and identify corrective action.

A Case Analysis

A nearly unwarned tornado in OKC metro area

WFO Norman

October 22, 2000

Surface 00Z

00Z OUN Raob

00Z OUN Hodograph

Considerations

Tornado day before

Midday AC “NO SVR”

Tornado watch by early evening

Dayshift held over “just in case”

New staff member stopped by

Initially one warning forecaster

What happened

5 tornadoes in CWA

One F1, remainder rated F0

F1 occurred in relatively dense population area

No significant injuries

No significant lead time

Several storms of concern

Tornado warnings SE & NW

About 30 minutes later

Interesting signature W of RDA

Tornado at cursor

F1 tornado occurring

Was this a failure?

Could have had more lead time!

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis

1. Define failure mode.

2. Identify cause of failure.

3. Identify effects of failure.

4. Corrective action.

Analysis Failure mode: Organizational

Cause: Failed to identify mini-SC tornado threat

Ambiguity in staffing caused breakdown in lines of responsibility

Effects: Not too much, could have been worse!

Correction: Re-emphasize intra-staff coordination and strengthen structure of duties

Questions and comments?