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CONSTRUCTION OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
FOR SELECTED COMPANIES IN THE
PHARMACEUTICAL, AUTOMOTIVE & OIL & GAS
INDUSTRIES
A MINI PROJECT REPORT
Submitted by
RAJA PAVAN KUMAR J (09AC31)
In partial fulfillment of the requirements of Anna University for the
award of the degree of
Master of Business Administration
PSG INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT
MARCH 2010
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Executive summary
Investing in securities has become a growing trend in India with more number of
investors growing every day. The aim of the investor being getting high return at a low risk,
analyzing and predicting of the stock market is very tough. With information and knowledge
on investments more investors approach the fund managers for allocating and investing in thestock market. The objective of this project is to find the optimal investment opportunity for
an investor by directing them to invest in more optimal portfolio in the selected industries.
Background of study
The Indian pharmaceutical industry is the world's second-largest by volume and is
likely to lead the manufacturing sector of India. India's bio-tech industry clocked a 17 percent
growth with revenues of Rs.137 billion ($3 billion) in the 2009-10 financial year over the
previous fiscal. The sector is highly fragmented with more than 20,000 registered units. It has
expanded drastically in the last two decades. The leading 250 pharmaceutical companies
control 70% of the market with market leader holding nearly 7% of the market share. It is an
extremely fragmented market with severe price competition and government price control.
The Automotive industry in India is one of the largest in the world. The country is
manufacturing over 11 million vehicles and exporting about 1.5 million every year ever year.
It is the world's second largest manufacturer of motorcycles, with annual sales exceeding 8.5
million in 2009. India's passenger car and commercial vehicle manufacturing industry is the
seventh largest in the world, with an annual production of more than 2.6 million units in
2009.
The oil and gas industry has been instrumental in fuelling the rapid growth of the Indianeconomy. India has total reserves of 775 million metric tonnes (MMT) of crude oil and 1074
billion cubic metres (BCM) of natural gas as on April 1, 2009, according to the basic
statistics released by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Petroleum exports during
2008-09 were US$ 26.2 billion.
CONSUMPTION GROWTH DURING 2009-10
There is a significant growth ofPharmaceutical market in 2010, which indicates amarket growth of about 4 - 6% in 2010. As of 2009, India is home to 40 million passenger vehicles and more than 1.5 million
cars were sold in India in 2009 (an increase of 26%), making the country the second
fastest growing automobile market in the world.
The consumption of petroleum products during 2008-09 were 133.4 MMT (includingsales through private imports), according to the Ministry of Petroleum. The sale ofoil
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& gas products in the country rose 3.8 per cent in April 2010 to 12.13 million tonne
year-on-year.
FUTURE PROSPECTS:
If present industry overview is taken into consideration then the pharmaceutical market in2010 is projected to grow 4 - 6% exceeding $825 billion. The pharmaceutical market sales are
expected to grow at a 4 - 7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2013.
The Automotive Mission Plan (AMP) 2006-2016, aims at doubling the contributionof automotive sector in GDP by taking the turnover to USD 145 billion and providing
additional employment to 25 million people by 2016 with special emphasis on export
of small cars, MUVs, two and three wheelers and auto components. By 2050, the
country is expected to top the world in car volumes with approximately 611 million
vehicles on the nation's roads.
As per the Ministry of Petroleum, demand for oil and gas is likely to increase from186.54 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mmtoe) in 2009-10 to 233.58 mmtoe in 2011-
12.
The demand for Pharmaceutical, Automotive & Oil & Gas industries is in the growthstage till 2010 as mentioned in the CONSUMPTION GROWTH DURING 2009-10
and this trend is expected to continue in the near future.
INDIAN STOCK MARKET A DYNAMIC MARKET:
The global financial markets are trading at a reasonable value after sharp fall from the
2007 highs. From the beginning of this year, lot of money has poured into the markets around
the world as the investors are optimistic about the economy. Developed economies would
take more than two years to recover however the Asian economies will lead the overall
economic recovery.
Companies around the world has posted better than expected earnings in the last couple of
quarters and showing the signs of recovery in their operations, nevertheless the growth in
their earnings was ushered by cost cutting measures such as layoff and restructuring of their
businesses. In general, their growth would be sustainable once the consumer confidence
revives in the developed economies.Thus based on the above analyzed facts and economic analysis, the industries
Pharmaceutical, Automotive & Oil & Gas has been selected for the utmost benefit of the
investors.
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STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
Even during the economic slowdown in 2008-09, growth of demand in thePharmaceutical, Automotive & Oil & Gas industries remained at a healthy (as
discussed before) when compared with all the other industries.
Many of the analyzed facts and economic analysis estimates indicate thatPharmaceutical, Automotive & Oil & Gas industries will perform well in the future
because of growing trend of the industry and also increased potential users .
So the investors were highly willing to invest in the above selected industries ratherthan investing in other industries.
The aim of the investor being getting high return at a low risk, analyzing andpredicting of the stock market is very tough.
So the problem for an investor lies in finding the optimal investment opportunity inthe Pharmaceutical, Automotive & Oil & Gas industries.
OBJECTIVES
Primary Objective:
Construction of optimal portfolio using Sharpe Index Model To analyze the risk and return of three sectors of Industries in India.
Secondary Objectives:
To understand the Sharpe's Portfolio Selection Model over the Standardized IndexPortfolio called Market portfolio in respect of stock market operations in India.
It also involves the estimation of Beta for each potential asset; these estimations areobtained based on past data and using statistical methods in order to obtain future
Beta.
To understand the current scenario and best return with minimum risk for the selectedindustries.
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Significance of Study
SCOPE & LIMITATIONS
Scope:
1. To get overview about the selected Industries in India, their performance comparison,market share, potential and their volatility.
2. Serves as a source of information for investors in identifying the risk averse and risk
seeking shares (more return and less risk) of selected industries.
3. To get insight about the application of Sharpe index model in risk and return analysis of
portfolio management.
4. It also helps to know the stability or the growth rate of various companies in the selected
period. This can be included for the future analysis.
Limitations:
1. The study covers a period of five years only
2. The data obtained and collected are only from secondary data so values are approximate
and not more accurate.
3. Market fluctuations in share price of the selected industries.
4. Application of Sharpie index model alone.
Theoretical framework
Literature Reviews
ARTICLE 1
Portfolio Construction: Allocating risk, allocating time
By Martin Steward
Publication: Investment and Pension Europe (IPE Magazine) June 2 2010
One of the biggest risks a long-term investor faces is of severe short-term losses. A robust
strategic asset allocation is the best defence against that eventuality, but the process
underlying most pension funds' approach makes them more vulnerable to those short-term
shocks. "Implied volatility on the S&P500 for the past 25 years suggests that risk is clearly
not constant over time, and you have successive periods of high levels of risk - Vix levels of
25-35, say - and low levels of 10-20," . "It is astonishing to see how regular these regimes are
in terms of length - about four or five years." "The asset allocation with 60% in equities
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would stand for a very different level of risk in this new regime than it did when the strategic
allocation was decided"
If the decision is framed as a risk allocation (to both global risk and the risk of individual
asset classes), the strategic management of that benchmark consists in rebalancing the
portfolio not in terms of asset allocation weights, but in terms of risk contribution -
maintaining the initial risk budget by buying assets whose volatilities are falling below their
strategic assumptions (often long term levels) and selling those whose volatilities are rising
above those levels.
ARTICLE 2
Portfolio concentration and the fundamental law of active management
Jeroen Derwall, Tilburg University, Joop Huij Rotterdam School of Management
17 Nov 2009
ABSTRACT
Concentrated funds with higher levels of tracking error display better performance than their
more broadly diversified counterparts. We show that the observed relation between portfolio
concentration and performance is mostly driven by the breadth of the underlying fund
strategies; not just by fund managers willingness to take big bets. Our results indicate that
when investors strive to select the best performing funds, they should not only consider fund
managers tracking error levels. It is of greater importance that they take into account the
extent to which fund managers carefully allocate their risk budget across multiple investment
strategies and have concentrated holdings in multiple market segments simultaneously.
ARTICLE 3
Portfolio Construction: Broaden your horizons
By Martin Steward
Publication: Investment and Pension Europe (IPE Magazine) June 3 2010
A pension fund can have liabilities stretching out for decades but it regularly and frequently
buys the assets that it will hold to meet those liabilities out of incoming cash flows - cost
averaging is the most basic form of time horizon diversification. Similarly, most will make
strategic asset allocation decisions on a 3-5 year horizon, rather than a liability duration-related multi-decade horizon. Within that, portfolios may be rebalanced once a year or so and
active tactical asset allocation decisions might be made every 6-12 months. There would be
practical difficulties associated with implementing a truly diversified portfolio of time
horizons. Latency costs can be crippling at the very, very short end; and both the shorter and
longer ends push investors into higher fees than they pay for either the buy-and-hold or the
active management strategies into which they are currently bunched. But most long-term
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institutional investors can go a long way before running up against these issues: time horizon
remains a hugely under-examined and under-exploited source of portfolio risk management.
ARTICLE 4
Portfolio Construction: A question of skill
By Martin Steward
Publication: Investment and Pension Europe (IPE Magazine) June 2 2010
"Performance from those managers is driven more by risk management than by the nature of
the positions they have got on - but that remains a skill."
However, these skills - two bottom-up, one top-down - are about extracting the highest
information ratio from an underlying systematic risk. They arguably remain fundamentally
either risk-on or risk-off, so while they can manage cyclicality they cannot capitalise on it.
There would appear to be little advantage in the fund of funds delegating any top-down
decision making to these strategists - as opposed to long/short equity managers with highly-
variable net exposures or multi-strategy macro managers. Dispersion of performance between
managers in the more cyclical strategists might be quite high, that dispersion will be greatest
during the periods when their underlying systematic risk is delivering return, and as a result,
over the entire cycle the return to the fund of funds is likely to be dominated by the top-down
decision of whether to be allocated to the systematic risk or not. Furthermore, it also suggests
that the contribution of manager and strategy selection to the risk and return of the diversified
fund of funds will itself be cyclical.
ARTICLE 5
Performance Evaluation of Two Optimal Portfolios by Sharpes Ratio
Global Journal of Finance and Management Volume 2, Number 1 (2010),
Asmita Chitnis
Abstract
A ratio developed by William Sharpe measures risk-adjusted performance. It tells us whether
a portfolios return is due to smart investment decisions or a result of excess risk. This paper
attempts to construct two optimal portfolios from two different samples using Sharpes Single
Index Model of Capital Asset Pricing and further to compare the performance of these twoportfolios by Sharpes Ratio. For the analysis purpose, NIFTY 50 has been considered as the
market index. Stocks listed on the National Stock Exchange constitute the population. Two
samples each comprising of 26 stocks (most of them being large caps) have been selected.
Monthly indices as well as monthly stock prices for the period from 1st April, 2004 to 31st
March, 2009 are being considered. Using Sharpes Single Index Model a unique cut off point
is defined and the optimal portfolio of stocks having excess of their expected return over risk-
free rate of return greater than this cut-off point is generated for both the samples separately.
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Percentage of investment in the respective portfolios is further decided by the standard
procedure outlined by Sharpes Model. Finally, performance of these two optimal portfolios
is evaluated by Sharpes Ratio.
ARTICLE 6
The Art and Science of Portfolio Construction
By Anna Morrell
March 04, 2010
ABSTRACT
Rather too many of us, I suspect, have portfolios that are just collections of haphazardly
acquired shares. As with asset allocation, so with portfolio construction, you need to sit down
first and do some thinking. What is your preferred level of risk? It has to be moderately high
for you to consider getting involved in equity investment, but are you willing to take larger
risks - for instance, investing in AIM companies - for greater gains, or do you take a more
conservative approach?
That's a balance between how many stocks you can research and keep on top of, and how
many stocks you need to achieve the benefit of diversification reducing your overall risk.
That will differ from person to person, and it will also be different depending on whether you
use funds and ETFs to gain broader exposure, or whether your portfolio is entirely equity
focused.
ARTICLE 7
Portfolio construction and performance measurement when returns are non-normal
By Karen Benson, Philip Gray, Egon Kalotay, Judy Qiu, March 2008
ABSTRACT
The foundation of popular approaches to portfolio construction and performance
measurement lies in the mean-variance framework of Markowitz (1952, 1959). However, the
suitability of such approaches in practice is questionable in light of considerable evidence of
non-normalities in returns. This explores the potential usefulness of a non-parametric
approach to portfolio construction and performance measurement recently proposed by
Stutzer (2000). The Portfolio Performance Index (PPI) is based on the notion that investorsassociate risk with the failure to achieve a target return. Stutzer proposes that portfolio
construction and performance measurement be approached by calculating the decay rate in
the probability that a given portfolio will underperform its designated benchmark. By
comparing the PPI and Sharpe ratio metrics, this paper presents preliminary evidence of the
economic significance of non-normalities in Australian equity returns, and documents the
impact of such on portfolio construction and performance evaluation practice.
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ARTICLE 8
Abu Hassan Md Isa, Chin-Hong Puah and Ying-Kiu Yong
Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, 94300 Kota Samarahan,
Sarawak, Malaysia.
ABSTRACT
There had been extensive theoretical and empirical studies on asset pricing model, which
trying to establish factors that contribute to the expected return of capital asset. These studies
contributed towards the development and improvement of the models to explain pricing of
capital asset under an equilibrium market. Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965) developed the
earliest model trying to estimate the expected return of capital assets in the 1960s, which is
the extension of the one period mean variance model of Tobin (1958) and Markowitz (1959).
The Sharpe-Lintner model links return to risk. It uses beta, the risk free rate, and the market
return to estimate the expected return. Early studies were largely supportive of the Sharpe-
Lintner CAPM, that is, the unconditional model stating a linear relationship between returnand market risk, beta which is a constant. For example, Fama and Macbeth (1973) found that
on average there is a positive tradeoffs between risk and return for New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE) common stocks using monthly average data from 1926-1968. They found
no measure of risk, other than beta, systematically affecting the average return. Ball et
al.(1976) revealed that there is evidence that the cross sectional relationship between beta risk
and the average return is linear in the Australian Industrial equity market over the period of
1958-1970. Ariff and Johnson (1990) also reported that the Singapore stock market was in
favour of the linear and positive return to risk relation during 1973-1988. In addition, Chen
(2003) found evidence supporting the use of CAPM in Taiwan stock market. The relationship
between stock returns and beta is significant and the coefficient of determination of theregression is high for all the sectors under study.
ARTICLE 9
Uncovering the Risk-Return Relation in the Stock Market
Hui Guo, Robert F. Whitelaw
ABSTRACT
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about the apparent weak or negative relation
between risk (conditional variance) and return (expected returns) in the aggregate stockmarket. We develop and estimate an empirical model based on the ICAPM to investigate this
relation. Our primary innovation is to model and identify empirically the two components of
expected returns--the risk component and the component due to the desire to hedge changes
in investment opportunities. We also explicitly model the effect of shocks to expected returns
on ex post returns and use implied volatility from traded options to increase estimation
efficiency. As a result, the coefficient of relative risk aversion is estimated more precisely,
and we find it to be positive and reasonable in magnitude. Although volatility risk is priced,
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as theory dictates, it contributes only a small amount to the time-variation in expected returns.
Expected returns are driven primarily by the desire to hedge changes in investment
opportunities. It is the omission of this hedge component that is responsible for the
contradictory and counter-intuitive results in the existing literature.
ARTICLE 10
The risk and return characteristics of developed and emerging stock markets: the recent
evidence
Authors: Gerald Kohers a; Ninon Kohers b; Theodor Kohers c
Published in: Applied Economics Letters, Volume 13, Issue 11 September 2006 , pages 737
743
ABSTRACT
Finance theory suggests that the higher volatility typically associated with emerging stock
market returns translate into higher expected returns in those markets. This study compares
the risk and return profile of emerging and developed stock markets over the period from
1988 through April 2003. Specifically, this study investigates whether a difference in risk
characteristics exists between the two markets and whether the realized rates of return in
these two types of markets reflect these risk characteristics. The results show that the risk
associated with emerging markets, as measured by the standard deviation of returns, is higher
than the risk in developed markets in most periods. Also, the returns in emerging markets
have been higher than those in developed markets for most of the time frames examined. The
findings suggest that risk-averse investors seeking higher returns in emerging markets have
been compensated for assuming the higher risk associated with these markets.
ARTICLE 11
Oil price risk and emerging stock markets
Syed A. Bashera Department of Economics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto,
Ontario, Canada, M3J 1P3 &
Perry Sadorskyb, Schulich School of Business, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto,
Ontario, Canada, M3J 1P3
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature on stock markets and energy prices
by studying the impact of oil price changes on a large set of emerging stock market returns.
The approach taken in this paper uses an international multi-factor model that allows for both
unconditional and conditional risk factors to investigate the relationship between oil price risk
and emerging stock market returns. This paper, thus, represents one of the first
comprehensive studies of the impact of oil price risk on emerging stock markets. In general
we find strong evidence that oil price risk impacts stock price returns in emerging markets.
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Results for other risk factors like market risk, total risk, skewness, and kurtosis are also
presented. These results are useful for individual and institutional investors, managers and
policy makers.
Research Methodology
RESEARCH DESIGN:
It is the conceptual structure within which research is conducted. It constitutes the
blueprint for the collection, measurement and analyses of data. The study aims at narration of
existing facts and figures regarding financial position of five selected companies from the
energy industry and the research design adopted in the study has been analytical in nature.
PERIOD OF THE STUDY:
The study covers a period of 5 years i.e.) from 2005-06 to 2009-10.
DATA COLLECTION METHOD:
The study is based on the secondary data collected from various resources.
SOURCES OF DATA:
Websites like Nse india, RBI and other informational sites.
Sampling Technique:
The sampling technique used was purposive sampling. In this technique the company
is selected based on the requirement of the study.
SAMPLE SPACE:
In this project, sample of five companies and their performance over five years are
used to calculate portfolio and overall financial status of the chosen companies. The
companies are chosen randomly and there is no formal procedure for having chosen such
companies. The companies exhibit the expected diversity during the period of study.
STATISTICAL TOOLS USED:
The secondary data collected was analysed and interpreted using trend analysis and
inter firm comparisons.
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PORTFOLIO
Certain formulae are used to study on the risk and return of the companies and
the portfolio management based on the Sharpe Index model.
The formulae of the elements used in the spread sheet are as follows:1. Sum of Individual Stock returns - Ri and Market return - Rm.2. Stock return Y and Market return X:
= ((Todays price Yesterdays price) / Yesterdays price)*100.
3. Mean of stock return Y, Mean of market return X.Y = (sum of Y)/ total number of days
X = (sum of X)/ total number of days
4. Standard deviation of Stock return y, Standard deviation of marketreturn x.
5. Correlation = Covariance/(y * x)6. Risk factor = Covariance *(y / x)7. Return indicator = Y - (X).8. Unsystematic risk - ei.9. Cut off point Ci10.Z value = Zi/
Where, Zi =
- Ci
11.X value = Zi / Z. Tables and bar graphs are drawn for average values of important parameters
like , x, y, X, Y, for each company for all five years.(Outcomes are
represented diagrammatically)
A table for all companies cut-off point, Z value, X value is also drawn.
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ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION
Three sectors are selected for the construction and selection of optimum companies for
investing the following table shows the companies selected and the industries chosen.
INDUSTRY Pharmaceuticals Automotive Oil and Gas
1
Cipla Ashok Leyland
ONGC
2
Drreddy
Mahindra &
Mahindra
Limited
Reliance
Industries Ltd
3 PiramalHealthcare Tata Motors
Essar oil
4Aurobindo
Pharma
Maruti Suzuki
India Limited
BPCL
5
GlaxoSmithKline
Hero Honda
Motors Ltd.
Hindusthan
petroleum
The sharpe index procedure is followed step by step and the companies are shortlisted
according to the cut-off point and the percentage of investment of the selected companies is
found out at the end.
The following table shows the calculated values of the respected companies and their
correlation and beta. Analysis and interpretation is made on the values mentioned in the table
step by step.
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Company (Stock) Return Vs Market Return
INTERPRET TION:
From t above anal i table, Essar oil has the hi h market share since it has the hi her
val e of company ret rn than other companies. Since company share val e is increasing day
by day from the above data. Allthe companies have optimistic share val e in the market with
a positive share val e. From the above given data we can come to a concl sion that
Aurobindo Pharma has a very optimistic share val e in the market and has a positive share
val e.
Hero Honda motors, AshokLeylandshare val e is in a positive number showing that the
companys shares has the faith ofthe investors in the market and has remained the same in
spite ofthe increase in the points in the market.
Maruti also has won the confidence of the share holders this can be found from the table
which shows that while some companys share prices have declined and are in a negative
figure Maruti has maintained a positive share value when the market points have increased.
M&M has also kept up with the recent market fluctuations and while the current market
points have increased the share prices ofthe company have not declined but on the contrary
have maintained a positive figure which shows thatthe company is healthy and has attracted
the confidence ofits share holders.
In the case ofHindustan petroleumit mightlose the confidence ofits share holders which is
shown by the companys low share price. This can be because the company must have been
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
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BET ()
INTERPRET TION:
Reliance and Hindustan petroleum shows a negative beta value indicating that when the
market return is positive then the asset value will decrease and vice versa.
Tata Motors has a highest positive beta value indicating thatthe companys asset value will
more closely follow the market return.
Ashok Leyland & ONGChas next highest positive beta values after Tata Motors indicatingthatthe companys asset value will closely follow the market return.
In the rest of the other companies has a positive beta value indicating that the companys
asset value will closely follow the market return.
Finally, from the above table and graph it clearly shows thatTata Motors & Ashok Leyland
has high risk and high return which shows it gives more profit when compared to other
companies.
-0.2
0
0.2
0.
0.6
0.8
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INVESTMENTS
COMPANY Z X (%)
ASHOKLEY 0.60626 22.09215
AUROPHARMA 1.502483 54.75058
BPCL -0.34057
CIPLA -0.05879
DRREDDY 0.63549 23.15728
INTERPRETATION:
From the above table we can invest 54.75% in AUR BINDO PHARMA, 23.15% in DR
R DDY, 22.09% in ASHOKLEYLAND. Among these companies investment in
AUROBINDO PHARMA only have very high return when compared to other companies in
the three selected industries.
22.0921 612
5.7505776
23.15727628
X(%)
ASHOKLEY
AUROPHARMA
DRREDDY
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FINDINGS
From the above obtained data we can come to a conclusion that
1.) A i
has a very optimistic share value in the market and has a positive
share value.
2.)ONGChas shown a high degree of positive correlation indicating that when the market
return increases the companys return will also increase.
3.) Tata M t has a highest positive beta value indicating that the companys asset value
will more closely follow the market return.
But when compared to all the companies for selecting optimum investment it is found that
The investment best suited goes like this as 54.75% in AUROBINDO PHARMA, 23.15% in
DR REDDY, 22.09% in ASHOKLEYLAND.Among these companies investment in
AUROBINDO PHARMA only have very high return when compared to other companies in
the three selected industries.
Suggestions
In the investment decision it is suggested that to keep AUROBINDO PHARMA, DR
REDDY & ASHOKLEYLAND stocks LONGand to keep BPCL and CIPLA stocks SHORT
in those five selected companies from the cut-off.
Conclusion
Thus based on the above analyzed study of the selected industries, companies have been
selected for the utmost benefit of the investors. In this study the investor can select the stock
in those five selected companies. The two companies BPCL and CIPLA stocks should be
sold short where as the other three companies stocks can be held long.
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