Quick Mutual Fund Analysis & Market Alerts An Educational Service for those with 401Ks, IRAs, College Savings Accounts, and Mutual Fund Investments.

Quick Mutual Fund Analysis&

Market Alerts

An Educational Service for those with 401Ks, IRAs, College Savings Accounts, and Mutual Fund Investments

• If you lost 50% in the Market in year 1, then grew 50% in year 2, your investments would be even because your average annual yield is 0%.

– Year 1• $10,000 + [(-50%) x ($10,000)] = $5,000

– Year 2• $5,000 + [(50%) x ($5,000)] = $7,500

Wall Street Math

The average annual yield means absolutely nothing.It’s simply a form of misdirection.

S&P 500 Performance

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

S&P 500 Annual Yield

“Buy & Hold”Wall Street’s Big Lie

YearAnnual Yield *

Average Yield

Actual Yield

Account Value

Cumulative Contribution

1995 34.1% 34.1% 34.1% 13,411.00$ 10,000$ 1996 20.3% 27.2% 25.1% 28,154.07$ 20,000$ 1997 31.0% 28.5% 27.8% 49,985.65$ 30,000$ 1998 26.7% 28.0% 27.4% 75,995.81$ 40,000$ 1999 19.5% 26.3% 25.1% 102,773.60$ 50,000$ 2000 -10.1% 20.2% 15.2% 101,338.35$ 60,000$ 2001 -13.0% 15.5% 8.1% 96,819.83$ 70,000$ 2002 -23.4% 10.6% 0.5% 81,856.04$ 80,000$

* S&P 500

• The Goal– Maximize return on investment

• Introducing the “Market Signal”– Avoid downward market participation (to preserve capital)– Capture the majority of the upward trend (and lock in profits)

• Performance Record Since 2005*– Buy & Hold = -4%– Protect & Grow = +119%

No More “Buy and Hold”

* As of 12/31/2010

• The Approach– Monitor every mutual fund in the United States

• 23,000+ mutual funds– Analyze each fund’s performance versus the Market and

versus each other using seasonal, fundamental, technical and statistical information

• High Frequency Trading– Minimize and leverage the impact of High Frequency Traders– Anticipate market trends based on an understanding of how

traders are likely to respond to market conditions

• Not Day Trading– Only 1 to 4 entry/exit signals per year

Not Really “Timing the Market”

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Example – 401k Choices

Investment/FundNumber of FundsInitial InvestmentStarting Date

Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $144,745.49 $260,484.92Gain/(Loss) ($45,254.51) $70,484.92Portfolio - IRR -4.49% 5.47%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -9.56% 0.84%Individual Fund - IRR - High 0.63% 8.99%

401k Portfolio Assessment$10,000.00

19$190,000.00

01/01/05

GuideStone


Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $148,485.02 $223,995.99Gain/(Loss) $8,485.02 $83,995.99Portfolio - IRR 0.97% 8.05%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -0.86% -0.07%Individual Fund - IRR - High 2.28% 12.41%


14$140,000.00

01/01/05

BNSF


Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $260,958.74 $463,592.03Gain/(Loss) $958.74 $203,592.03Portfolio - IRR 0.06% 9.99%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -6.93% -0.13%Individual Fund - IRR - High 8.59% 18.77%


26$260,000.00

01/01/05

American Airlines

401k Mutual Fund Growth

Hud

son

Fina

ncial

Amer

ican

Airlin

es

BNSF

Apollo

Guide

Ston

e

Hun

tingt

on N

atio

nal .

..

King

City

MRI T

ech

Chevr

on

Armstro

ng R

eloc

atio

n

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

January 1, 2005 - December 31, 2010

Inte

rnal

Rate

of

Retu

rn (

IRR

)

• Analyze every mutual fund choice within your 401k.– Produce detail report which compares and rates the

performance of each of your mutual fund choices.

• Analyze mutual funds outside your 401k that are of interest to you.

• Provide the Market Signal which alerts you to bull, bear and/or flat signals:– Email and text

What Does This Educational Service Include?

Contact Us For Subscriber Pricing & Incentives

Quick Mutual Fund Analysis & Market Alerts An Educational Service for those with 401Ks, IRAs, College Savings Accounts, and Mutual Fund Investments.

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