Quebec economic growth revised downward€¦ · October 5, 2012 ECONOMY AND STRATEGY GROUP – 514.879.2529 Stéfane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist General: National Bank

October 5, 2012

ECONOMY AND STRATEGY GROUP – 514.879.2529 Stéfane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist

General: National Bank Financial Markets is a business undertaken by National Bank Financial Inc. (“NBF”), an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada, and a division of National Bank of Canada. ♦ This research has been produced by NBF. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges ♦ The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. ♦Canadian Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make further inquiry related to this report or effect any transaction, Canadian residents should contact their NBF Investment advisor. ♦ U.S. Residents: NBF Securities (USA) Corp., an affiliate of NBF, accepts responsibility for the contents of this report, subject to any terms set out above. Any U.S. person wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so only through NBF Securities (USA) Corp. ♦ UK Residents – In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, NBF Securities UK has approved the contents (including, where necessary, for the purposes of Section 21(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000). NBF Securities UK and/or its parent and/or any companies within or affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long or short positions in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant securities or related financial instruments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted as investment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to retail customers. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This information is only for distribution to Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Financial Services Authority. NBF Securities UK is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom and has its registered office at 71 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 4HD. ♦ Copyright: This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of National Bank Financial.

• Economic indicators review (p. 5)

• Things to watch

Economic calendar and significant earnings announcements of the week ahead (p. 6)

• Economic tables (p. 7)

Quebec economic growth revised downward

Summary

• According to the economic accounts published by the ISQ, economic growth in the province has been trending below 1% annualized since 2011Q2. The first two quarters of 2012 saw the trend persist.

• Considering the scenario that we had laid out this past June for 2012, Quebec international exports and consumer spending have clearly disappointed. This explains in large part why we are revising our economic growth forecast for Quebec in 2012. Real GDP growth is now pegged at 0.8%, down from 1.4%. This translates into nominal GDP growth of 3.2%, revised down from 3.8%.

• For 2013, as the economic outlook for Quebec’s principal trade partners, including the rest of Canada, has worsened somewhat since June, we are revising our real GDP growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4%. Nominal GDP, for its part, is now projected to grow 3.5%, compared with 4.0% this past June.

Exports fall short

This past June, we forecast economic growth for Quebec of 1.4% in 2012. In light of the 2012Q2 economic accounts published by the Institut de la Statistique du Quebec (ISQ), we need to revise these forecasts lower. Indeed, after annualized quarterly real GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1 and 0.8% in Q2 (vs. 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively, in Canada), growth would have to be on the order of 4.5% in each of the last two quarters of 2012 for our June forecast to come true. This is clearly unrealistic.

International exports are one of the components of aggregated demand that has disappointed so far in 2012. Indeed, after seven months, the average monthly volume of international merchandise exports measured in 2002 prices is level with the average for 2011 (Canada: +4.7%). Barring a sudden and unexpected upturn, international export volumes in 2012 will fall well short of the 5.1% growth we forecast this past June.

Chart 1

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% growth

Volume of international merchandise exports Constant 2002 dollars, monthly average, seasonally adjusted

Quebec

Canada

NBF Economy and Strategy Group (data via Statistics Canada and ISQ)2012: first 7 months

Change in monthly average: 2011 vs. 2012Quebec: Canada:Aerospace: -$94M Energy: +$376MOther mach. eq.: +$59M Autos: +$960MAluminum: -$27M Mach. & eq.: + $91M Pulp and paper: -$41M Others: + $84M Others: +$108M

Seven months into 2012, Quebec

exports are flat relative to 2011.

So far in 2012, we note above all a decrease relative to 2011 in terms of monthly average exports of aerospace products, aluminum products, and pulp and paper. As it happens, the first two are Quebec’s most important export categories. In 2011, aerospace products accounted for 16.7% of Quebec’s export volumes and aluminum products, 11.2%.

WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER

October 5, 2012 2

According to the ISQ economic accounts, growth in overall export volumes (goods and services, international and interprovincial) in the first half of 2012 was virtually flat compared with the 2011 average. Meanwhile, import volumes grew 1.1%. Consequently, in 2012, external trade should be a drag on economic growth for the 11th year in a row. Against this background, then, we are now forecasting for all of 2012 growth of 1% in export volumes and of 2.1% in import volumes. It need be reminded that, this past June, we were hoping to see export volumes outpace import volumes by a slim measure.

Chart 2

Quebec: external tradeGoods and services, international and interprovincial, real growth

2.1

3.7

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2011 2012 2013 2012 2012 2013

Exports ImportsJune 2012 forecasts

Carry-over after two quarters: external trade

not contributing to growth

%

October 2012 National Bank forecasts

NBF Economy and Strategy Group (2011 according to ISQ Economic Accounts)

We have also revised downward Quebec’s export volume growth for 2013. This revision is motivated by the less positive outlook we now hold for the regions that constitute Quebec’s principal export markets, as evidenced in the table below. For more details, see the latest issue of our Monthly Economic Monitor.

Table 1

World economic growth outlook for 2013

Breakdown (%) of Quebec

internationalmerchandise 2013

exports by regions growth forecasts2011 June 012 Oct 012

United States 69.1 2.1 1.7

Euro zone 9.9 0.9 0.3

China 4.4 7.7 7.0

Latin America 4.5 3.4 3.3

UK 2.0 1.2 1.0

World 100.0 3.6 3.3Based on Industry Canada data; National Bank forecasts

We must also take into consideration our downward revision of economic growth in Canada from 2.0% to 1.7%, as this has an impact on Quebec’s interprovincial exports growth. Overall, Quebec’s export volume growth in 2013 is being lowered from 4.4% to 2.7%.

Consumers more tepid

According to the Labour Force Survey (LFS), employment in Quebec registered a decline in 2011Q4 on a par with what is normally witnessed during a severe recession. Oddly, the drop was not corroborated by any other indicator, be it payroll employment according to the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) or total wages and salaries in the economy.

However, even if we completely disregard the sharp drop in employment reported in 2011Q4, according to the LFS, employment still progressed only 0.8% in the 12 months ended this past September. This is an unsatisfactory showing in light of the fact that, over the same period, the working-age population grew 0.9%.

Chart 3

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Quebec: level of employmentLabour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted data

+0.8%

?

Even if we disregard the job losses in 2011Q4, employment still grew only 0.8%

in the 12 months ended this past September.

Millions

NBF Economy and Strategy Group (data via Statistics Canada)

Other indicators are leaving much to be desired as well. For instance, this past July, average weekly earnings had increased only 2.4% since 12 months earlier, the lowest rate among the Canadian provinces (Chart 4).

Chart 4

Average weekly earningsIncluding overtime, SEPH, July 2012, year-over-year growth

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3.32.9

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0

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SK NF PE AB BC NB MB ON NS QC

National average: 4.1%

%



October 5, 2012 3

The combination of modest growth in both employment and average weekly earnings translates into rather weak growth in total household income. This in turn should affect growth in household spending. As it turns out, Quebec is among the provinces registering the lowest relative growth in retail sales of late (Chart 5).

Chart 5

Retail salesFirst seven months of 2012, year-over-year growth

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AB SK PE NF BC ON MB QC NS NB


Growth (%)

Quebec retail sales growth among weakest in the land


Not only is total household labour income in Quebec progressing relatively slowly, but household purchasing power in the province is being eroded by a higher inflation rate than in the rest of Canada. Indeed, this past August, Quebec was the province with the highest inflation rate, as measured by year-over-year growth in the all-items consumer price index. It need be said, however, that inflation in Quebec has been fanned by the increase in the Provincial Sales Tax, which was hiked one percentage point in January for a second year in a row.

Chart 6

All-items consumer price indexAugust 2012, year-over-year growth

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1.71.6 1.6

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QC SK NF MB NS PE AB BC NB ON


%


Moreover, the ISQ economic accounts revealed that, in real terms, the aggregate purchasing power of Quebec households as measured by real personal disposable income (PDI) grew a mere 0.4% from 2011Q4 to 2012Q2,

compared with 0.9% for all of Canada. The gap is attributable to the fact that PDI growth was stronger (1.4% vs. 1.1% for Quebec) and inflation as measured by the consumer spending deflator was weaker (0.5% vs. 0.7% for Quebec) for Canada as a whole.

Chart 7

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Quebec vs. Canada: real personal disposable incomePersonal disposable income adjusted for the consumer spending deflator

Index: 2008Q4 = 100

In 2012Q2, the aggregate purchasing power of

Quebecers progressed only 0.4% relative to 2011Q4.


PST hikes

0.9%

0.4%Canada

Quebec

These developments suggest that, in real terms, consumer spending growth in Quebec will be more subdued compared with Canada as whole in 2012. This was already the case in the first half of the year when real spending registered an annual rate of 1.3% in Canada against 0.7% in Quebec.

Conclusion

According to the economic accounts published by the ISQ, economic growth in the province has been trending below 1% annualized since 2011Q2. The first two quarters of 2012 saw the trend persist.

Considering the scenario that we had laid out this past June for 2012, Quebec international exports and consumer spending have clearly disappointed. It is true that, as shown in Table 2 next page, other components of aggregate demand have surprised on the upside, particularly government investment and residential construction. However, in the end, we must still revise our economic growth forecast for 2012 down from 1.4% to 0.8%.

For 2013, as the economic outlook for Quebec’s principal trade partners has worsened somewhat since June, we are lowering our economic growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4%. This downward revision is equal in magnitude to the downward revision of our economic growth forecast for Canada as whole, which is being cut from 2.0% to 1.7%.


October 5, 2012 4

Table 2

Quebec economic growth forecastfor 2012 and 2013

by components of aggregate demandGrowth (%) *

2012 2013Consumption expenditure 1.3 (1.8) 1.6 (1.9)Government expenditure 0.0 (0.4) 0.2 (0.2)Government investment 0.9 (-7.9) -2.9 (-2.5)Residential construction 1.5 (-1.1) -2.0 (-2.0)Business investment 4.6 (7.6) 4.9 (5.5)Exports 1.0 (3.7) 2.7 (-4.4)Imports 2.1 (3.5) 2.1 (3.5)Real GDP 0.8 (1.4) 1.4 (1.7)Nominal GDP 3.2 (3.8) 3.5 (4.0)* Forecasts from this past June in parentheses.Source: National Bank forecasts

Marc Pinsonneault – Stéfane Marion


ECONOMIC INDICATORS REVIEW

October 5, 2012 5

Canada – Jobs surprised on the upside in September

with a gain of 52K (vs. consensus expectations for a 10K increase and our expectations for a 5K decrease), the strongest advance in five months. Though most of the jobs created were full-time (+44K), they were concentrated in the self-employed category (+34K). In fact, jobs were down in 7 of the 15 major industry groups. Construction (+29K) and Trade (+34K) were responsible for most of the gains. Echoing the situation in the United States, manufacturing employment fell 6K for a fourth consecutive monthly decline. The unemployment rate edged up to 7.4% from 7.3%. Employment grew in 6 of the 10 provinces, with most of the gains registered in Ontario (+31K) and Quebec (+11K).

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NBFM Economy and Strategy Group (data via Bloomberg) 2012-10-05

Employment rose 52.1K in SeptemberDespite strong job growth, unemployment edged up to 7.4% (from 7.3%)

Thousands

Although the headline number was a shocker, a more detailed analysis shows very poor diffusion. Indeed, only 8 of the 15 industry groups added jobs and gains were concentrated in self-employment. At the industry level, we are baffled by the 63K jobs added in construction and trade, an all-time record! We do not believe that these sectors are actually hiring at anywhere near that pace. At the end of the day, we are best off relying on the unemployment rate and the employment rate to gauge the underlying strength of the Canadian labour market. Both these measures are consistent with a modest improvement in the situation. This said, the September employment report does not open the door for a change in rhetoric on the part of the Bank of Canada at its upcoming rate-setting meeting on October 23.

United States – In September, the unemployment

rate fell to 7.8% according to the Household Survey. The report showed that 873K jobs were added on the month, which outpaced a 418K increase in the civilian labour force. The employment-to-population ratio notched up 0.4 of a percentage point to 58.7%. The ratio stood at 63.4% prior to the financial crisis. The number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons reached 8.6 million, up from 8 million in August.

Again in September, total non-farm employment increased 114K according to the Establishment Survey. The previous month’s gains were revised up to 142K. Cumulative revisions to the August and July figures totalled a sizeable +86K. However, September’s report showed continued weakness in manufacturing, where employment was down 16K after slipping 22K the month before, and tepid job creation in construction (a mere +5K). Service jobs were up 114K, with half the gains concentrated in education and health services. The economy-wide wage bill swelled 2.3% in Q3 after registering similar growth in Q2. The report paints the picture of a job market strong enough to support domestic demand but weak enough to justify QE

The ISM Manufacturing Index recorded a modest advance in September. The headline number came in at 51.5 (+1.9 points) for a first reading above 50 since May. New orders, which are a leading indicator of the economy, climbed above 50 as well after three months of suggesting weaker growth ahead. This sub-index pegged in at 52.3, up from 47.1 in August. The ISM Non-manufacturing Survey, too, came in stronger than expected with a gain of 1.4 points boosting the headline number to 55.1, its strongest reading since March. Both surveys suggested that economic growth in the United States picked up on the month. This stands in stark contrast with the situation in the euro zone, where both the manufacturing and services purchasing managers surveys were stuck at 46.1, well below the threshold level of 50.

In August, factory orders declined 5.2%, the largest monthly drop since January 2009. In July, orders increased a revised 2.6%. Shipments of durable goods decreased 2.9% while shipments of non-durables rose 2.2% driven in large part by higher petroleum prices.

Sales of cars and light trucks did better than expected in September, attaining a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 14.88 million units, up from 13.09 million a year earlier.


THINGS TO WATCH – Canada & US

October 5, 2012 6

Consensus Cons.

Estimate EPS

8:10 CA Housing Starts Sep 224.9K 207.5K 200.0K Chevron Corp 17:00 Q3 2012 3.07

Alcoa Inc Aft-mkt Q3 2012 0.01

Yum! Brands Inc Aft-mkt Q3 2012 0.97

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Oct-05 16.60% -- Jean Coutu Group PJC Inc 7:00 Q2 2013 0.22

14:00 US Fed's Beige Book Host Hotels & Resorts IncBef-mkt Q3 2012 0.21

Costco Wholesale Corp 0:00 Q4 2012 1.31

Progressive Corp/The 0:00 Q3 2012 0.26

8:30 CA Int'l Merchandise Trade Aug -2.34B -1.80B -1.90B Novagold Resources Inc Bef-mkt Q3 2012 -0.06

8:30 US Trade Balance Aug -$42.0B -$44.0B -44.5B Fastenal Co 7:00 Q3 2012 0.37

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-06 367K 368K Safeway Inc 0:00 Q3 2012 0.43

8:30 US Producer Price Index (MoM) Sep 1.70% 0.70% 0.70% JPMorgan Chase & Co 7:00 Q3 2012 1.19

8:30 US PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) Sep 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% Wells Fargo & Co 8:00 Q3 2012 0.87

8:30 US Producer Price Index (YoY) Sep 2.00% 1.80% 1.90%

8:30 US PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) Sep 2.50% 2.50% 2.60%

9:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence Oct P 78.3 78.0

Source: Bloomberg

Earnings announcementsCountry Release NBF

EstimateCompany Time Qtr

Economic releases & eventsPeriod PreviousTime

Monday

Oct 8

Tuesday

Oct 9

Oct 12

Wednesday

Oct 10

Thursday

Oct 11

Friday


ECONOMIC TABLES

October 5, 2012 7

TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORSOctober 5, 2012

Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth Cumulated since

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year

Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

UNITED STATESMONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)

M1 Aug 2012 2333 0.6 2.8 0.4 11.2 9.6 10.8 16.4 13.4

M2 Aug 2012 10058 0.4 0.8 0.5 6.2 6.6 6.3 9.2 6.1CREDIT MEASURES

Consumer Credit July 2012 2705 -0.1 0.4 0.7 5.6 5.8 4.4 4.4 6.4Mortgage (Banks) * Aug 2012 3533 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 2.0 1.4 0.2 -4.6Business * Aug 2012 1462 0.7 1.2 1.5 14.3 14.4 13.3 13.2 1.9

CANADAMONETARY AGGREGATES

M2+ gross July 2012 1485 0.6 0.9 0.7 7.8 5.6 6.8 6.2 3.7Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) Aug 2012 737 0.5 0.5 0.7 6.3 4.7 6.2 5.9 4.2

CREDIT MEASURESConsumer July 2012 494 0.3 0.4 0.3 2.8 2.0 2.6 2.7 3.8Mortgages July 2012 1150 0.4 0.6 0.5 6.4 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.6Short - Term Business Loans Aug 2012 373 0.7 1.4 0.6 10.5 10.7 8.5 7.9 3.4Business (S.T. + L.T.) * Aug 2012 1356 0.6 0.6 0.4 6.5 5.6 5.2 4.9 5.2Private (Consumer+Business) * July 2012 2992 0.5 0.5 0.5 5.9 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.8Gov. of Canada securities outstanding * Sept 2012 649 -0.3 1.9 0.4 6.3 6.3 5.9 5.9 6.4

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago

UNITED STATESINTEREST RATES

Federal Funds Target Rate * 4 Oct 12 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25Prime Rate * 4 Oct 12 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.253-month Treasury Bills * 4 Oct 12 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.012-year Bonds * 4 Oct 12 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.34 0.275-year Bonds * 4 Oct 12 0.63 0.62 0.70 0.66 0.71 0.81 0.67 1.01 1.0110-year Bonds * 4 Oct 12 1.67 1.64 1.78 1.63 1.69 1.87 1.60 2.18 1.9930-year Bonds * 4 Oct 12 2.88 2.82 2.95 2.76 2.82 2.97 2.72 3.32 2.95Corporate High-yield (Lehman) * 4 Oct 12 6.43 6.55 6.24 6.71 7.09 7.53 7.22 7.27 9.87Corporate Invest. Grade (Lehman) * 4 Oct 12 2.72 2.77 2.82 2.94 3.12 3.37 3.20 3.39 4.04

SPREADSCorp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 4 Oct 12 4.76 4.91 4.46 5.08 5.39 5.66 5.62 5.09 7.88Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 4 Oct 12 1.05 1.13 1.04 1.31 1.43 1.51 1.60 1.21 2.05Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 4 Oct 12 2.78 2.73 2.84 2.66 2.73 2.90 2.64 3.24 2.94

EXCHANGE RATEMajor currencies, traded-weighted * 4 Oct 12 72.71 72.52 72.73 74.01 74.08 73.35 75.11 73.29 73.06

CANADAINTEREST RATES

Prime Rate * 4 Oct 12 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00Target overnight rate * 4 Oct 12 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.0030-day commercial paper * 4 Oct 12 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.19 1.17 1.14 1.19 1.163-month Treasury Bills * 4 Oct 12 0.96 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.92 0.87 0.94 0.821-year Treasury Bills * 4 Oct 12 1.07 1.10 1.13 1.08 1.09 1.03 0.99 1.09 0.835-year Bonds * 4 Oct 12 1.29 1.29 1.36 1.33 1.37 1.39 1.23 1.61 1.4010-year Bonds * 4 Oct 12 1.76 1.76 1.86 1.77 1.83 1.96 1.71 2.13 2.1430-year Bonds * 4 Oct 12 2.37 2.35 2.42 2.35 2.40 2.53 2.30 2.68 2.73

SPREADSPrime - 30d. Commercial paper * 4 Oct 12 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.82 1.81 1.83 1.86 1.81 1.84Long Term - Short Term * 4 Oct 12 1.41 1.36 1.43 1.37 1.43 1.61 1.43 1.74 1.91

CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS3-month T-Bills * 4 Oct 12 0.86 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.79 0.86 0.81Long Term Bonds * 4 Oct 12 -0.51 -0.47 -0.53 -0.41 -0.42 -0.44 -0.42 -0.64 -0.22

EXCHANGE RATEUS$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 4 Oct 12 1.0199 1.0198 1.0235 1.0082 0.9976 0.9944 0.9861 1.0067 0.9636Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 4 Oct 12 114.6 114.4 115.1 113.7 112.7 112.0 111.7 113.9 107.5

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) SinceReference Past Prev. Month beginning of yearThursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

Dow Jones (U.S.) * 4 Oct 12 13575.4 4.1 -0.5 1.2 4.9 3.8 25.6 12.9 -5.0S&P 500 (U.S.) * 4 Oct 12 1461.4 4.0 1.0 1.2 6.4 4.5 30.0 17.4 -8.2NASDAQ (U.S.) * 4 Oct 12 3149.5 2.4 3.6 -0.3 5.8 2.7 31.0 19.9 -7.2S&P/TSX (Can.) * 4 Oct 12 12447.7 4.2 2.4 -2.1 4.5 2.2 11.4 3.1 -15.2

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted Source: Datastream


ECONOMIC TABLES

October 5, 2012 8

TABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORSOctober 5, 2012

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated since


Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of 12 Leading Indicators Aug 2012 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 -0.1 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.1 5.8Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) Sept 2012 70.3 61.3 65.4 65.7 65.5 63.0 46.4 66.2 59.6I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) * Sept 2012 51.5 49.6 49.8 50.3 51.5 52.2 52.5 52.1 56.2

* Sept 2012 59.9 55.6 57.2 57.6 55.8 56.7 56.8 57.3 58.0

DOMESTIC DEMANDSales new autos & light trucks (000,000) * Sept 2012 14.9 14.5 14.1 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.1 14.3 12.6Retail Sales Aug 2012 0.9 0.6 -0.7 -1.1 3.0 6.1 4.7 5.3 8.2

- Motor vehicle Aug 2012 1.3 0.1 -0.4 2.2 4.1 8.3 10.7 7.9 12.0- Other Aug 2012 0.8 0.8 -0.8 -1.8 2.7 5.6 3.4 4.7 7.7

Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) Aug 2012 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.6 3.4 4.1 3.6 3.8 5.2Total ($ constant) Aug 2012 0.1 0.4 -0.1 1.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.8

Personal Income Aug 2012 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.7 4.6 3.5 3.5 3.2 5.5Personal Savings Rate (3) Aug 2012 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.6New Orders * Aug 2012 -5.2 2.6 -0.5 -1.8 -2.3 5.5 -2.5 3.3 12.7

- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft * Aug 2012 1.1 -5.6 -2.7 -18.8 -6.6 4.0 -3.5 1.7 11.2Unfilled Orders * Aug 2012 -1.7 0.7 0.4 1.1 5.6 8.9 5.4 8.7 9.9Business Inventories July 2012 0.8 0.1 0.3 3.6 5.5 7.2 5.4 6.1 10.3Inventories / Shipments Businesses July 2012 1.28 1.29 1.27 1.28 1.27 1.26 1.25 1.27 1.26Manufacturers' Shipments * Aug 2012 -0.3 1.9 -1.2 0.2 2.4 6.3 2.6 4.5 12.6Manufacturers' Inventories * Aug 2012 0.6 0.6 -0.1 1.3 2.3 6.9 3.4 5.0 12.2Inventories / Shipments Manuf. * Aug 2012 1.28 1.27 1.29 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.28 1.27Housing Starts (000) (1) Aug 2012 750 733 754 746 733 710 581 729 583New Home Sales Aug 2012 -0.3 3.6 -2.2 11.2 20.7 15.5 27.7 20.8 -9.1Existing Home Sales Aug 2012 8.0 2.1 -5.1 0.3 5.8 8.8 10.0 8.2 -1.0

PRODUCTIONIndustrial Production Aug 2012 -1.2 0.5 0.1 1.6 3.2 4.2 2.8 4.3 4.2

- Consumer Goods Aug 2012 -1.2 0.4 -0.1 1.7 1.0 2.3 0.3 2.0 2.1- Hitech goods Aug 2012 -1.1 0.8 1.0 5.2 1.8 0.4 -1.8 -0.7 7.9

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCESExports July 2012 -1.0 1.2 0.1 2.6 5.4 8.0 2.8 5.5 16.0Imports July 2012 -0.8 -1.5 -0.9 -6.2 2.7 7.6 0.6 4.7 15.5Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) July 2012 -42.0 -41.9 -47.6 -43.8 -46.2 -47.1 -45.6 -47.1 -46.3Real merchandise trade balance July 2012 -46.5 -44.0 -47.7 -46.1 -46.9 -47.3 -47.8 -47.3 -48.3Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) Aug 2012 -1227.1 -1170.7 -1230.5 -1268.7 -842.6 -865.1

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices Aug 2012 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.7 2.2 3.0

- Excluding Food and Energy Aug 2012 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.4PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy Aug 2012 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.3Industrial Prices, Finished Goods Aug 2012 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.3 3.3 2.0 2.0 6.0Average Hourly Earnings (4) * Sept 2012 0.3 -0.1 0.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 2.1Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate Aug 2012 78.2 79.2 78.9 78.8 78.8 78.4 77.1 78.8 76.4Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) Aug 2012 0.1 -0.5 5.2 41.9 27.0 2.0 10.2 5.3 -4.5

LABOUR MARKETNew Jobs (000) (6) * Sept 2012 114 142 181 146 106 151 1806 1314 1348

- Manufacturing (000) * Sept 2012 -16 -22 18 -7 2 15 174 134 193- Services (000) * Sept 2012 124 164 161 150 109 134 1602 1186 1033

Average weekly hours (6) * Sept 2012 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) * Sept 2012 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.1 8.1 8.3 9.0 8.2 9.0

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q2 2011 2011 2010 2009

GDP Chained 2005 dollars 1.3 2.0 4.1 1.3 2.5 0.1 1.8 2.4 -3.1Consumption 1.5 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.0 3.1 2.5 1.8 -1.9Residential Construction 8.4 20.6 12.0 1.4 4.2 -1.4 -1.4 -3.7 -22.4Business Investment 3.6 7.5 9.5 19.0 14.5 -1.3 8.6 0.7 -18.1

- Machinery and Equipment 4.8 5.4 8.8 18.3 7.8 11.1 11.0 8.9 -16.4Government Spending -0.7 -3.0 -2.2 -2.9 -0.8 -7.0 -3.1 0.6 3.7Exports 5.2 4.4 1.4 6.1 4.1 5.7 6.7 11.1 -9.1Imports 2.8 3.1 4.9 4.7 0.1 4.2 4.8 12.5 -13.5Change in Inventories (1) (2) 41.4 56.9 70.5 -4.3 27.5 30.3 31.0 50.9 -139.0GDP Deflator 1.5 2.2 0.1 3.0 2.6 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.9Personal Disposable Income 3.1 3.7 -0.2 -1.3 -1.5 4.4 1.3 1.8 -2.8

Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009Labour Productivity (4) 2.2 -0.5 2.8 0.6 1.2 -2.0 0.7 3.1 2.9Unit Labor Costs (4) 1.5 6.4 -3.3 -0.6 -1.3 11.3 1.9 -1.1 -1.3

Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009Current Account (current $) -469.6 -534.5 -474.6 -432.6 -476.5 -480.0 -465.9 -442.0 -381.9

as a % of GDP -3.0 -3.5 -3.1 -2.9 -3.2 -3.2 -3.1 -3.0 -2.7Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009

Corporate Profits (8) 4.7 -10.4 29.6 6.7 19.3 -13.9 7.3 26.8 7.5as a % of GDP 12.3 12.3 12.7 12.1 12.0 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.1

* Update Source: Datastream(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes

Monthly Growth (%)

- Non-manufacturing (level)


ECONOMIC TABLES

October 5, 2012 9

TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORSOctober 5, 2012




Index of Leading Indicators (Stat. Can.) * June 2012 0.3 0.3 0.7 6.8 5.5 5.6 4.9 5.5 7.6CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2012 3.3 -1.5 -1.9 -19.9 -7.5 -4.6 -1.1 -4.8 0.7

DOMESTIC DEMANDRetail Sales ($ current) July 2012 0.7 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 1.0 3.8 3.0 3.4 3.9

- Motor vehicle and parts dealers July 2012 1.7 0.0 -0.3 -1.9 1.9 6.7 7.8 7.7 4.4- Other July 2012 0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.7 3.0 1.6 2.2 4.0

Retail Sales ($ constant) July 2012 0.6 0.0 0.9 2.8 0.6 2.1 2.6 2.3 1.9

Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) July 2012 -1.5 -0.8 0.4 -1.2 -0.1 6.7 2.3 5.2 7.0New Orders July 2012 -5.6 1.0 1.6 -4.0 1.4 6.2 -1.1 3.5 9.2

- Durables July 2012 -9.6 4.2 5.0 9.5 7.1 7.8 0.3 4.7 11.9Unfilled Orders July 2012 -1.2 2.1 0.7 9.0 6.5 13.5 6.7 11.6 6.1Manufacturer's Inventories July 2012 1.0 -1.8 1.5 4.3 1.6 6.0 3.3 4.6 6.7Inventories / Shipments Ratio July 2012 1.36 1.32 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.34 1.33 1.34Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) July 2012 -2.0 -0.1 1.1 5.0 2.0 4.7 3.1 4.3 2.9

Housing Starts (000) (1) * Aug 2012 223.8 208.3 222.0 218.1 222.7 212.4 192.8 217.7 189.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2012 -5.8 -0.9 -1.7 -23.4 -1.5 4.8 -4.4 3.1 -0.4Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Sep 1900 -6.1 -7.4 2.9 -34.9 -10.3 -7.1 12.8 -9.0 -14.3

PRODUCTION Real Domestic Product July 2012 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.8 1.4 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.8

- Manufacturing July 2012 0.6 -0.7 0.0 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.1- Construction July 2012 -0.1 0.4 0.0 2.6 4.7 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.8

Services July 2012 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.3

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCESExports July 2012 -3.4 -0.2 0.1 -7.2 -5.5 10.0 0.5 6.4 11.6Imports July 2012 -2.2 1.8 1.7 9.3 5.0 8.2 6.6 7.0 10.3

- Capital Goods July 2012 -3.7 3.8 -1.1 6.4 4.9 6.4 6.0 6.3 14.1Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) July 2012 -2,335 -1,925 -1,098 -1,786 -974 67 -44 -529 -313Change in Official Reserves July 2012 103 -2,481 -845 -1,074 -9 257 3,083 502 2,980

Level (US$): $66.3 billion Fiscal year Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) July 2012 -19.5 -20.0 -21.1 -31.7 -3.0 -7.1

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices Aug 2012 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -1.2 1.8 2.1 1.2 1.8 3.0

- Excluding Food and Energy Aug 2012 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -1.6 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.6- Core inflation (4) Aug 2012 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.5

Average Hourly Earnings (2) * Sept 2012 1.4 0.8 -0.8 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.4 2.9 2.1Price of New Housing icluding land July 2012 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2012 1.1 -1.0 -0.5 -6.7 -0.2 1.6 0.0 0.1 8.4Industrial Prices (1992=100) * Aug 2012 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -3.1 0.0 2.0 -0.3 0.9 4.8

LABOUR MARKETLabour Force * Sept 2012 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.0Job creation (000) * Sept 2012 52.1 34.3 -30.4 18.7 21.5 14.5 174.5 211.0 226.5

- Manufacturing * Sept 2012 -6.2 -2.7 -18.4 -9.1 5.4 3.4 40.9 60.8 -28.7- Services * Sept 2012 17.6 70.6 -17.0 23.7 14.1 6.6 79.1 114.2 218.2- Full Time * Sept 2012 44.1 -12.4 21.2 17.6 21.3 13.1 156.8 203.0 251.2- Part Time * Sept 2012 8.0 46.7 -51.6 1.0 0.3 1.5 17.7 8.0 -24.7

Unemployment Rate * Sept 2012 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.5

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009

GDP Chained (2002) $ * 1.9 1.8 2.1 5.8 -0.8 2.5 2.6 3.2 -2.8Consumption * 0.8 1.5 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.8 2.4 3.5 0.1Business Investments * 9.3 7.0 10.6 0.5 6.6 10.2 10.4 14.5 -19.5

-Machinery and Equipment * 3.0 1.8 9.9 -12.2 29.8 13.5 10.7 13.7 -20.4Residential Construction * -1.5 15.8 7.3 9.7 -1.0 6.4 1.9 7.9 -6.4Government Expenditures * -0.1 -1.8 0.2 3.6 -0.3 -2.1 1.0 3.0 3.4Government Nonresidential Investments * -1.1 -4.3 -19.5 -18.5 -12.7 -3.0 -4.4 14.0 13.3Final Domestic Demand * 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.2 2.4 2.7 4.9 -2.0Exports * 4.0 -4.4 4.5 21.6 -1.6 0.5 4.6 6.5 -12.8Imports * 2.5 2.4 3.5 -1.0 8.4 9.0 5.8 13.6 -12.4Change in Inventories (1) * 6.0 4.0 -4.5 -1.6 10.6 2.1 1.6 -0.6 -6.0Real Disposible Income * 3.0 1.1 1.3 2.5 0.4 1.4 1.7 2.3 1.7Personal savings Rate * 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 4.1 3.8 4.5 5.5GDP Price Deflator * -0.7 -0.4 4.1 0.0 3.8 5.4 3.1 3.1 -2.1Corporate Profits (nominal) -17.5 -14.0 21.4 18.2 -4.3 21.7 15.4 21.2 -33.1

as a % of GDP * 11.2 11.7 12.2 11.8 11.5 11.7 11.8 10.9 9.5Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate 81.0 80.5 80.3 80.0 79.0 79.7 79.7 77.4 72.0Labour Productivity, Business Sector 3.2 1.6 3.2 -2.8 3.9 2.3 0.8 1.5 0.0Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector * 1.6 3.2 -2.8 3.9 2.3 2.6 2.1 0.8 1.9

Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009Current Account (current $) (1) * -73.5 -59.8 -49.2 -44.1 -62.1 -53.8 -52.3 -60.2 -46.4

as a % of GDP * -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 -2.5 -3.6 -3.1 -3.0 -3.4 -2.8Source: Datastrream and Canadian Real Estate Association* Update(1) Annual Rate, $ billions(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted(3) Current and before taxes

Monthly Growth (%)

(4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect of indirect taxes


ECONOMIC TABLES

October 5, 2012 10

TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSOctober 5, 2012




QUEBECDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales July 2012 1.0 0.5 -0.5 -2.1 -1.4 2.2 1.0 1.5 2.7Manufacturing Shipments July 2012 -2.6 -0.7 2.8 -3.5 -2.6 2.8 -2.0 0.2 4.6Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2012 44.8 50.3 49.1 48.1 49.2 48.4 44.2 47.2 47.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2012 -5.0 -0.2 -4.0 -21.4 1.2 4.9 0.2 5.5 -6.9Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.0 0.4 0.1 3.3 2.5 3.4 2.8 3.0 4.6Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2012 -8.1 -2.5 7.2 4.1 -7.9 7.0 -7.8 3.8 5.0CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2012 -0.7 6.2 -2.8 -12.2 -6.6 -3.7 4.4 -4.9 0.0Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2012 6.2 -2.8 -12.2 -6.6 -3.7 4.4 #VALUE! 0.0 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2012 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -1.3 2.6 2.5 2.0 2.3 3.0Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2012 1.1 1.4 -1.0 -1.0 1.7 3.1 3.7 3.5 1.6Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2012 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 3.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2012 0.6 0.5 0.5 5.5 4.1 4.2 4.9 4.3 5.2

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2012 10.6 32.5 -28.7 4.8 8.0 2.7 32.9 93.9 5.1Unemployment rate * Sept 2012 8.0 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.0 7.4 7.9 7.6Participation rate * Sept 2012 65.3 65.0 64.5 64.9 65.1 64.9 65.0 64.9 65.3

ONTARIODOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales July 2012 0.1 -0.2 0.3 -1.7 0.5 2.5 1.7 2.2 4.1Manufacturing Shipments July 2012 -1.9 0.2 -0.7 5.0 1.5 7.3 3.8 7.2 4.8Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2012 88.0 74.4 72.6 78.3 83.0 75.9 68.2 80.5 68.2Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2012 -5.3 -1.4 -1.8 -29.8 -5.0 4.9 -8.2 2.4 -1.1Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.5 0.1 0.1 3.3 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.2 4.5Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2012 -18.7 3.2 8.2 0.1 0.8 8.1 8.7 9.1 6.2CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2012 2.9 -2.8 -1.0 -20.1 -6.6 -5.0 2.6 -4.4 -0.5Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2012 #REF! #REF! #REF! -6.6 -5.0 2.6 #VALUE! -0.5 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2012 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -2.2 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.7 3.3Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2012 1.3 0.0 -0.5 -2.5 1.1 1.9 2.6 2.1 2.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2012 0.1 0.4 0.4 4.3 4.1 4.4 3.9 4.4 3.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2012 1.3 -1.0 -0.8 -6.6 7.2 6.5 5.6 6.1 6.9

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2012 31.1 -24.9 10.6 5.6 1.8 3.7 44.7 45.3 85.1Unemployment rate * Sept 2012 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.8Participation rate * Sept 2012 66.5 66.3 66.6 66.5 66.5 66.5 66.8 66.5 66.9

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADORDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales July 2012 1.8 -0.3 1.4 12.4 5.0 5.1 7.5 4.7 4.6Manufacturing Shipments July 2012 -5.1 -8.8 4.4 15.1 32.2 32.4 120.6 54.8 5.8Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2012 3.6 4.3 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2012 -0.5 -21.9 -13.0 -25.3 16.1 15.0 -8.3 11.3 -1.8Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.4 0.0 1.7 9.7 9.0 7.6 8.3 7.4 8.4Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2012 -9.0 -2.8 -13.4 24.0 -17.3 18.8 7.6 12.0 34.2CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2012 9.9 7.9 3.3 61.8 18.2 -11.2 11.2 -11.2 1.1Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2012 7.9 3.3 61.8 18.2 -11.2 11.2 0.0 1.1 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2012 0.3 0.1 -0.8 -2.6 2.7 2.8 1.6 2.4 3.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2012 3.7 2.3 -1.8 -1.9 -4.4 8.1 5.0 8.1 3.7Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2012 0.6 0.1 0.2 2.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 -0.2 5.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2012 -4.5 -0.3 1.2 -11.8 2.0 8.1 1.9 7.9 5.6

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2012 -0.2 1.7 -3.2 -0.6 0.1 0.7 8.4 1.5 -2.6Unemployment * Sept 2012 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.8 13.6 12.7 12.5Participation rate * Sept 2012 61.1 61.5 61.0 61.2 61.4 61.1 59.5 61.4 60.1

PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales July 2012 1.3 -1.2 -0.5 0.0 1.1 6.0 3.0 5.0 4.2Manufacturing Shipments July 2012 -6.7 -5.6 14.3 21.9 3.6 7.4 9.7 11.4 -2.6Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2012 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2012 -8.6 29.6 -20.0 -44.2 -13.5 12.2 -12.9 16.1 1.4Wages and Salaries * June 2012 -1.1 2.2 -1.1 4.3 1.6 3.0 2.8 2.3 4.0Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2012 -6.3 9.0 16.0 145.6 13.8 26.9 38.2 35.5 -2.7CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2012 -3.6 -12.2 -11.4 -59.8 -18.2 -10.3 -29.5 -13.2 3.2Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2012 -12.2 -11.4 -59.8 -18.2 -10.3 -29.5 #VALUE! 3.2 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2012 0.3 0.0 -0.6 -1.9 2.8 2.4 1.4 2.2 2.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2012 4.2 1.5 -1.3 3.3 -3.4 3.4 5.7 3.4 2.6Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2012 0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -1.3 1.9 -0.6 1.0 0.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2012 7.3 -15.7 10.3 -20.2 -13.1 2.8 -15.6 5.6 1.8

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2012 -0.2 -1.4 0.9 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -1.3 -1.4 3.4Unemployment * Sept 2012 11.2 11.7 10.2 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.2 11.5Participation rate * Sept 2012 67.1 67.8 68.0 67.6 67.7 67.9 69.1 67.8 68.1Source: Datastream and CREA* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate

Monthly Growth (%)


ECONOMIC TABLES

October 5, 2012 11

TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)October 5, 2012

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated sinceGrowth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of yearOtherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

NOVA SCOTIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales July 2012 1.2 -2.9 1.1 -2.6 -1.2 2.2 -2.2 1.1 3.3Manufacturing Shipments July 2012 -12.6 1.2 3.1 -10.1 -7.9 -1.9 -16.2 -5.5 15.5Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2012 6.5 2.9 4.0 4.5 4.2 4.4 3.9 4.0 4.4Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2012 -10.5 3.8 -2.6 -14.9 -10.6 9.2 -5.4 8.8 -0.8Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.5 0.6 0.4 7.0 1.8 2.2 2.6 1.9 3.6Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2012 -8.9 -4.2 20.7 69.1 -14.3 -12.3 -15.6 -18.3 8.6CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2012 2.2 0.7 -4.2 -29.3 -4.9 -9.8 -6.4 -7.2 -5.0Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2012 0.7 -4.2 -29.3 -4.9 -9.8 -6.4 #VALUE! -5.0 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2012 0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -2.8 2.4 2.6 1.5 2.2 3.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2012 1.5 0.0 -1.2 -5.6 0.7 3.0 3.6 3.8 1.8Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2012 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.9 2.9 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.6Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2012 1.3 -2.1 -1.2 -14.3 2.7 5.8 6.5 5.9 1.6

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2012 1.8 1.3 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.4 4.9 0.2 6.6Unemployment * Sept 2012 8.6 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.3 8.8 8.4 8.9 9.0Participation rate * Sept 2012 64.3 64.8 64.4 64.5 64.3 64.1 63.6 64.2 63.8

NEW BRUNSWICKDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales July 2012 0.6 0.4 -1.4 -5.9 -3.0 2.6 0.5 0.9 4.6Manufacturing Shipments July 2012 6.8 -12.7 9.6 -14.9 -7.8 4.7 -2.1 -1.4 15.3Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2012 3.7 3.9 4.7 4.1 3.4 3.4 2.8 3.2 3.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2012 -2.3 -2.2 0.9 -4.6 -6.1 -1.3 6.4 -2.0 -2.2Wages and Salaries * June 2012 -0.7 1.0 0.3 5.5 1.1 2.9 2.2 1.9 3.9Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2012 4.3 -15.9 -4.2 -12.8 18.5 3.4 -10.4 -2.0 19.1CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2012 3.7 -6.6 -1.4 -17.4 6.7 -0.2 3.3 3.8 -7.7Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2012 -6.6 -1.4 -17.4 6.7 -0.2 3.3 #VALUE! -7.7 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2012 0.4 -0.2 -0.9 -3.4 2.0 2.6 1.0 2.0 3.3Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2012 -0.1 0.3 0.5 -0.5 -1.7 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.8Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2012 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.9 -1.0 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.9Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2012 4.4 -4.2 -1.2 -2.1 2.3 1.5 1.2 0.5 1.3

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2012 -1.9 -1.8 -1.1 -1.6 0.5 -0.3 -3.2 -4.5 -0.2Unemployment * Sept 2012 11.0 10.4 10.0 10.5 10.0 9.9 9.0 10.0 9.6Participation rate * Sept 2012 63.4 63.3 63.3 63.3 63.2 63.1 62.6 63.1 62.8

MANITOBADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales July 2012 0.7 0.4 -0.4 0.0 -1.0 3.2 2.2 2.1 4.0Manufacturing Shipments July 2012 0.7 2.5 1.6 7.0 4.2 2.6 3.4 2.0 7.7Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2012 9.0 6.5 5.2 6.9 7.7 7.3 5.7 7.8 5.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2012 0.5 -3.6 -1.8 -22.1 -1.6 5.5 1.9 3.5 4.0Wages and Salaries * June 2012 1.0 0.6 0.4 7.0 3.4 4.2 4.6 3.5 4.8Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2012 -6.2 -2.9 -1.6 -19.3 -6.5 12.4 0.1 7.4 9.8CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2012 -5.8 -9.8 -2.1 -31.1 -14.8 -6.2 -16.4 -9.2 15.4Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2012 -9.8 -2.1 -31.1 -14.8 -6.2 -16.4 #VALUE! 15.4 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2012 0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.4 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.6 2.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2012 1.3 -0.1 0.2 2.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 1.6 3.0Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2012 0.2 0.7 0.2 4.5 3.9 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.6Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2012 5.0 -3.4 -0.3 9.3 0.2 5.9 7.7 5.7 5.1

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2012 6.6 3.4 -3.3 2.2 0.6 0.9 10.3 8.5 4.1Unemployment * Sept 2012 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.6 5.3 5.4Participation rate * Sept 2012 69.3 68.9 68.8 69.0 69.0 69.1 69.2 69.1 69.3

SASKATCHEWANDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales July 2012 1.2 0.5 2.2 16.2 6.1 7.8 9.1 7.0 6.5Manufacturing Shipments July 2012 1.7 8.3 -3.5 19.9 6.2 15.9 15.4 13.3 12.5Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2012 8.9 7.5 11.0 9.2 9.0 8.8 7.3 9.3 6.8Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2012 -6.2 -2.5 5.2 -11.8 8.8 21.2 11.2 24.4 7.9Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.1 0.7 0.5 6.7 8.1 8.3 8.7 8.7 6.7Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2012 -3.3 -4.6 -7.5 -17.9 2.5 23.3 6.7 14.8 15.9CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2012 -2.7 -3.4 -0.7 -13.3 -2.6 1.0 -5.9 -1.2 3.2Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2012 -3.4 -0.7 -13.3 -2.6 1.0 -5.9 #VALUE! 3.2 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2012 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.9 2.7Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2012 2.6 1.8 -0.4 10.9 4.5 4.0 6.5 4.1 2.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2012 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.4 4.2 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2012 0.2 2.8 0.4 -2.3 3.6 6.7 2.6 6.6 6.3

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2012 -3.6 4.6 0.8 0.6 1.4 0.9 10.8 10.4 2.9Unemployment * Sept 2012 4.7 4.4 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.8 5.0Participation rate * Sept 2012 69.4 69.8 69.7 69.6 69.6 69.3 69.0 69.5 69.2Source: Datastream and CREA* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate

Monthly Growth (%)


ECONOMIC TABLES

October 5, 2012 12

TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)October 5, 2012

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated sinceGrowth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of yearOtherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

ALBERTADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales July 2012 1.4 -1.1 1.2 4.0 5.0 8.8 9.2 9.0 5.8Manufacturing Shipments July 2012 0.1 -2.9 -3.2 -20.5 -3.1 13.5 1.4 9.2 16.6Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2012 27.7 31.4 33.8 31.0 33.6 31.4 31.3 32.5 23.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2012 -3.9 -0.6 0.4 -6.5 25.8 12.7 10.1 13.3 6.5Wages and Salaries * June 2012 1.2 0.4 0.3 8.4 7.1 8.4 8.6 7.9 7.9Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2012 3.4 1.5 -8.7 -23.0 -3.1 13.7 0.0 7.8 15.0CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2012 4.7 -3.3 -4.2 -16.0 -4.4 -2.2 -4.4 -2.9 9.4Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2012 -3.3 -4.2 -16.0 -4.4 -2.2 -4.4 #VALUE! 9.4 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2012 0.6 -0.1 0.2 1.2 0.4 1.9 1.0 1.4 2.1Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2012 1.4 2.6 -0.8 10.9 3.8 4.1 6.5 4.5 1.3Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2012 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.3 1.7 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2012 0.0 0.7 -1.4 -0.3 5.0 1.6 3.4 1.9 0.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2012 2.1 3.9 5.8 3.9 3.9 3.1 37.4 22.8 84.7Unemployment * Sept 2012 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.3 4.7 5.6Participation rate * Sept 2012 73.1 73.2 73.3 73.2 73.4 73.7 74.2 73.6 73.5

BRITISH COLUMBIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales July 2012 0.7 -1.0 0.0 -2.2 1.8 4.0 2.8 3.9 2.2Manufacturing Shipments July 2012 0.6 -0.9 1.6 3.5 0.9 3.3 1.8 1.3 6.9Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2012 30.5 25.9 36.4 30.9 27.9 28.1 25.3 28.4 25.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2012 -10.3 0.6 -0.8 -24.5 -13.6 -4.5 -13.4 -8.8 1.9Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.5 0.4 0.2 3.8 2.6 4.2 3.5 3.5 4.9Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2012 -0.9 -2.9 3.4 4.8 -8.4 6.1 -5.6 -0.4 12.6CFIB Business Barometer ® * Sept 2012 4.5 -6.7 -7.9 -40.5 -11.8 -6.7 -7.4 -8.4 1.0Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2012 -6.7 -7.9 -40.5 -11.8 -6.7 -7.4 #VALUE! 1.0 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2012 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.4 2.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2012 2.0 -0.1 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.6Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2012 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 -0.5Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2012 2.9 -1.7 -1.2 -13.1 -14.3 -5.4 -9.8 -9.0 15.5

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2012 5.7 14.9 -14.5 2.0 4.9 2.5 29.5 34.4 37.5Unemployment * Sept 2012 7.0 6.7 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.9 7.7Participation rate * Sept 2012 65.5 65.1 65.0 65.2 65.2 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.1

Source: Datastream and CREA

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate

Monthly Growth (%)


ECONOMIC TABLES

October 5, 2012 13

TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSOctober 5, 2012

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated sinceGrowth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year


OECD leading index July 2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.4 -0.6 -0.1 -0.5 0.4

JAPANConsumer confidence - percenbtage (1) Aug 2012 40.6 40.5 40.8 40.6 40.5 39.5 37.4 40.2 37.4Retail Sales (1) Aug 2012 -4.9 4.9 -1.2 -12.9 4.6 2.3 1.8 3.2 -2.0Industrial Production, Volume Index Aug 2012 -1.3 -1.0 0.4 -11.3 -2.6 1.2 -4.3 2.0 -3.3Exports Aug 2012 -2.1 -1.2 -1.7 -14.5 -1.0 -2.1 -7.3 -1.4 -2.2Imports Aug 2012 -0.2 -0.7 -6.3 -23.1 2.8 6.9 -3.9 4.3 12.0Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ¥) July 2012 -4,769 -1,666 -4,498 -3,644 -3,460 -3,458 -582 -27,818 -2,434Current account (Billions of ¥) July 2012 335 774 282 464 507 547 824 3,164 6,198Inflation (CPI) Aug 2012 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 -2.9 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.3Job offers to applicants ratio Aug 2012 0.83 0.83 0.82 0.83 0.81 0.76 0.66 0.79 0.63Unemployment Rate Aug 2012 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.7

Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) 0.7 5.3 0.3 6.9 -1.3 -7.9 -0.7 4.6 -5.5

Euro-zoneVolume Retail Sales * Aug 2012 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 -0.6 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 -0.1Industrial Production July 2012 0.6 -0.6 0.9 -0.3 -2.5 -0.7 -2.7 -2.1 5.1Exports July 2012 -2.0 2.4 0.3 3.1 8.5 9.4 8.1 7.9 16.2Imports July 2012 -1.2 0.7 -0.9 -7.8 4.1 4.9 -0.1 2.0 18.3Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) July 2012 7,941 9,346 6,679 7,989 6,964 5,369 3,785 40,176 -18,453Inflation (CPI) Sept 2012 0.8 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6Unemployment Rate * Aug 2012 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.0 10.2 11.2 10.0

Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) * -0.7 0.0 -1.3 0.3 0.9 2.6 1.4 2.0 -4.4

UNITED KINGDOMConsumer Confidence (Diffusion index) Sept 2012 -19 -19 -18 -19 -21 -22 -22 -21 -20Retail Sales Aug 2012 -0.2 0.2 0.6 2.8 1.8 1.3 2.6 1.5 0.3Manufacturing, energy and mining output July 2012 2.9 -2.4 1.3 0.3 -1.5 -2.3 -0.8 -2.4 0.3Exports (1) July 2012 9.3 -9.0 7.9 1.0 -1.1 4.7 2.2 1.4 14.7Imports (1) July 2012 -2.1 -0.6 -0.7 -8.2 0.3 4.7 -3.3 2.9 11.3Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of £) July 2012 -7,149 -10,068 -7,939 -8,385 -9,353 -8,882 -9,171 -60,623 -56,398Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) Aug 2012 0.4 0.2 -0.3 1.0 2.6 3.0 2.2 2.6 3.7Producer price index, manufacturing (1) Aug 2012 0.5 0.1 -0.6 -1.6 3.0 3.8 2.2 3.0 5.6House prices * Sept 2012 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -2.0 -1.3 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -2.9Unemployment Rate Aug 2012 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.6

Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009Gross Domestic Product (Constant £) -1.5 -1.2 -1.4 2.1 0.3 2.1 0.9 1.8 -4.0

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago

JAPANPrime Rate * 4 Oct 12 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month Financing Bill Rate * 4 Oct 12 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

- Spread with U.S. * 4 Oct 12 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.09Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 4 Oct 12 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.79 0.83 0.91 0.81 1.01 0.98

- Spread with U.S. * 4 Oct 12 -0.90 -0.86 -0.97 -0.84 -0.86 -0.96 -0.78 -1.17 -1.01Exchange Rate (¥/U.S.$) * 4 Oct 12 78.5 77.6 78.2 78.5 79.2 78.9 79.9 82.3 76.7

Euro Zone3-month Treasury Bills * 4 Oct 12 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.22 0.41 0.79 0.55 0.67 1.50

- Spread with U.S. * 4 Oct 12 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.12 0.31 0.72 0.47 0.59 1.49Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 4 Oct 12 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77

- Spread with U.S. * 4 Oct 12 0.10 0.13 -0.01 0.14 0.08 -0.10 0.17 -0.41 -0.22Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 4 Oct 12 1.30 1.29 1.30 1.26 1.27 1.30 1.24 1.31 1.34

(Yen/Euro) * 4 Oct 12 101.88 99.98 101.21 98.42 100.26 102.23 99.14 107.06 101.87(Euro / £ ) * 4 Oct 12 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.26 1.25 1.22 1.25 1.21 1.15

UNITED KINGDOMPrime Rate * 4-Oct-12 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.503-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 4 Oct 12 0.26 0.26 0.23 0.26 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.44 0.46

- Spread with U.S. * 4 Oct 12 0.16 0.17 0.12 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.27 0.36 0.45Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 4 Oct 12 3.04 3.04 3.07 2.98 3.06 3.15 3.05 3.33 3.35

- Spread with U.S. * 4 Oct 12 0.16 0.22 0.12 0.22 0.24 0.18 0.33 0.00 0.40Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / £ ) * 4 Oct 12 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.55 1.58 1.54

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) SincePast Prev. Month beginning of year

Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

MSCI Eafe * Oct 2012 204 4.8 3.0 5.9 14.3 -1.3 10.5 12.5 -8.4

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted Source: Datastream

Monthly Growth (%)


ECONOMIC TABLES

October 5, 2012 14

Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)Last Prev. Week For the Last Last

Oct 4 Sept 27 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year

CRB Index

Total 585.9 575.4 1.8 -0.3 -2.5 24.3 7.5 1.2 579.0

Energy 684.0 678.1 0.9 5.0 -5.0 58.9 25.6 4.8 652.4

Grain 541.2 530.8 2.0 -3.2 -4.6 14.4 45.3 30.8 413.8

Industrials 479.3 474.7 1.0 -2.6 1.7 21.9 -18.3 -8.7 524.7

Livestock & Meat 384.4 368.9 4.2 -1.1 0.7 -6.8 -2.6 -4.3 401.6

Precious Metals 1377.9 1346.8 2.3 0.6 -1.2 95.3 19.6 10.9 1242.5

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold ($/ounce) 1786.50 1755.25 1.8 -0.3 1.7 49.1 21.2 8.3 1649.50(AM fixing London)

Platinum ($/ounce) 1698.0 1635.0 3.9 1.4 -2.1 70.0 11.9 12.9 1504.0(AM fixing London)

Silver ($/ounce) 34.9 34.6 1.0 -0.5 5.3 151.2 21.8 10.1 31.7(Handy & Harman)

Palladium ($/ounce troy) 662.0 634.0 4.4 -4.4 -3.1 60.7 8.7 12.6 588.0

OTHER METALS (LME)

Aluminum ($/tonne) 2,088 2,080 0.4 -0.9 -0.1 42.8 1.5 -4.9 2,195

Copper ($/tonne) 8,296 8,180 1.4 -1.0 2.5 34.7 -2.1 15.1 7,208

Zinc ($/tonne) 2,032 2,053 -1.0 -1.5 4.0 46.2 3.2 10.0 1,847

Nickel ($/tonne) 18,619 18,299 1.7 2.5 6.9 55.7 3.1 -1.6 18,917

Lead ($/tonne) 2,282 2,261 0.9 0.2 5.1 118.9 22.8 17.4 1,944

Uranium (Neuxco spot $/lb U308) 662 634 4.4 -4.4 -3.1 60.7 8.7 12.6 588

OTHER COMMODITIES

Oil ($/barrel) 1-month future 91.60 92.13 -0.6 -0.4 -5.5 23.2 -21.2 11.4 82.25(West Texas Intermediate)

Corn (¢/bushel) 755.0 718.5 5.1 -4.5 -3.7 3.8 31.5 27.0 594.5(Illinois #2)

Soy beans (¢/bushel) 1539.5 1558.0 -1.2 -3.0 -8.4 -14.9 18.0 36.2 1130.5(Illinois #1)

Pork (¢/lb) 120.0 110.0 9.1 0.0 -1.8 -37.6 30.6 -1.6 122.0

Beef (Cattle feeder index) 143.3 143.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -14.7 -11.3 6.0 135.2(CME)

Woodpulp NBSK 830 850 -2.4 0.0 0.0 -27.7 -9.0 -14.4 970Metric ton delivered in U.S.

Natural Gas (mmbtu) 3.23 3.01 7.3 9.1 -8.3 53.9 166.1 -7.4 3.49Henry Hub future NYMEX

Lumber 2X4 285 294 -3.1 -1.3 0.0 2.9 4.3 18.8 240

Source: Datastream

All prices are in US dollars

TABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICESOctober 5, 2012

Quebec economic growth revised downward€¦ · October 5, 2012 ECONOMY AND STRATEGY GROUP – 514.879.2529 Stéfane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist General: National Bank

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