Q2 2019: India Construction and Infrastructure Survey Outlook … · 2019-08-07 · • Activity on residential projects flat amid muted demand Outlook positive amid robust infrastructure

Economics

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Chart 1: Current Workloads

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80Large Firms

Medium Firms

Small Firms

Micro Firms

Net balance, %

Increasing

Decreasing

Q2 2019: India Construction and Infrastructure Survey

The results of the RICS Construction and Infrastructure Survey indicated robust construction market activity in India during Q2. Chart 1 shows that respondents at firms of all sizes generally reported an increase in workloads during the second quarter. However, there does appear some dispersion between the smallest firms and the rest of the market, as respondents at firms that employ less than ten people reported a more modest growth in workloads during the quarter (in net balance terms).

Residential activity softRespondents highlighted particularly strong growth in work on private commercial projects, particularly in Telangana and Tamil Nadu. This is as Indian commercial property is broadly seen as being in the expansionary phase of the current property cycle¹.

Meanwhile, residential workloads were more subdued, though respondents at the largest firms (employing more than 250 people) did report a moderate increase in residential work. A number of respondents commented that the residential segment of the market was oversupplied relative to the level of demand.

Infrastructure upbeatWork on infrastructure projects was said to have broadly increased during the second quarter (Chart 1). Though, similar to overall workloads there seemed to be a scale advantage as the largest firms appeared to capture more of the increase in activity than smaller firms. This may be linked to the bidding process on public projects as smaller firms saw workloads either remain unchanged or decrease.

Chart 2 shows that across all firm sizes and most geographies, growth in infrastructure workloads are

• Overall construction workloads increased during Q2 of 2019• Larger firms seen to capture most of the increase in workloads, especially infastructure • Activity on residential projects flat amid muted demand

Outlook positive amid robust infrastructure and commercial workloads

Chart 2: Workload Expectations

All firmsLarge Firms

Medium Firms

Small Firms

Micro Firms Andhra Pradesh*Delhi NCR

Gujarat*

HaryanaKarnataka

Kerala*Maharashitra

Tamil Nadu

Telangana

West Bengal*

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

12-month Non-infrastructure Workload Expectations (Net Balance, %)

12-month Infrastructure WorkloadExpectations (Net Balance, %)

*These estimates are drawn from a small sample size (n<10)

Large firms = greater than 250 employees, Medium firms = 50 to 249 employees, Small firms = 10 to 49 employees, Micro firms = less than 10 employees

1) See Q2 2019 RICS Global Commercial Property Monitor

2

rics.org/economicsQ2 2019: India Construction and Infrastructure Survey

© RICS Economics 2019 Q2 2019

0 20 40 60 80 100

Competition

Cost of Materials

Financial Constraints

Insufficient Demand

Planning and Regulation

Shortage of Labour

Shortage of Materials

Shortage of Skills

Weather Conditions

Large Firms

Medium Firms

Small Firms

Micro Firms

Share of respondents, %

50%

Chart 6: Factors Holding Back Activity

expected to outpace growth in non-infrastructure workloads.

Margin pressure may persistDespite the expected increase in market activity, there were some indications that the general deterioration in markets experienced over the last three months may persist. Although workloads are expected to increase over the coming twelve months, Chart 3 shows that costs are expected to increase at a similar pace across all firms.

In several markets, including Karnataka and Maharashitra, costs are expected to rise at a faster pace than workloads (in net balance terms) over the next year. This may mute some of the expected expansion in margins expected in these markets over this period (Chart 4).

Chart 4: Profit Margins

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

West Bengal*Maharashitra

Delhi NCRTelangana

Large FirmsAll India

Micro FirmsKarnataka

Tamil NaduKerala*

Andhra Pradesh*Small Firms

Medium FirmsHaryanaGujarat* Past 3 months

Next 12 months

Net balance, %


Meanwhile, in Haryana and the National Capital Region the opposite is true. Interestingly, in net balance terms workloads are expected to rise at a faster pace than costs for the smallest firms. This is despite respondents at firms employing less than ten people expecting to experience faster growth in the cost of materials and labour over the next twelve months (Chart 5).

Financials constraining activityAs shown in Chart 6, a lack of demand and financial constraints were cited by most firms as holding back activity. Given expectations for infrastructure workloads, the soft demand may refer more to the residential market. The smallest firms reported that the cost of materials were a burden, while larger firms highlighted shortages of labour and skills.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

All Firms Large Medium Small Micro

Skilled LabourUnskilled LabourMaterials

%

Chart 5: Cost Expectations, Next 12 Months

Chart 3: Expected Workloads & Costs

All firmsLarge Firms

Medium FirmsSmall FirmsMicro Firms

Andhra Pradesh*

Delhi NCR

Gujarat*

Haryana

KarnatakaKerala*Maharashitra

Tamil Nadu

Telangana

West Bengal*

50

60

70

80

90

100

50 60 70 80 90 100

12-month Construction Cost Expectations (Net Balance, %)

12-month WorkloadExpectations (Net Balance, %)

Workloads>Costs

Costs>Workloads


Large firms = greater than 250 employees, Medium firms = 50 to 249 employees, Small firms = 10 to 49 employees, Micro firms = less than 10 employees

3



Comments from Survey Participants in India

“There are state elections in the coming months, which are definitely going to affect the market.”

- National Capital Region

“Currently the schemes of the government of India are positively affecting the construction market.

- Gujarat

“General elections had created a hold on infrastructure projects in the past three months. New budget will help.”

- Haryana

“Shortage of skilled labour, shortage of sand, skills in the employees.”

- Andhra Pradesh

“The Indian election of 2019 had a very bad impact on the current market.”

- Kerala

“Increased costs of raw materials is pushing inflation higher for the construction industry.”

- Tamil Nadu

“Statutory approvals and availability of skilled manpower are factors that impact construction.”

- Maharashtra

“Skill shortage and expertise is lacking. New technology adoption delayed.”

- Karantaka

“Political change has a huge impact on timely payments.”

- Telangana

“There has been a reduction in demand for residential projects in Kolkata.”

- West Bengal

4



0 20 40 60 80 100

Competition

Cost of Materials


Insufficient Demand


Shortage of Labour


Shortage of Skills

Weather Conditions


Factors Holding Back Activity

Respondents noted that activity in Haryana was fairly upbeat in the second quarter, highlighting a robust expansion in total workloads (in net balance terms). However, most of the activity appeared to be on either commercial projects or infrastructure amid a more sluggish residential market.

All segments of the infrastructure market saw increased workloads in Q2. Some respondents attributed this to a backlog of projects prior to the general election being freed following the incumbent party’s victory. The outlook for the next twelve months is similarly strong for infrastructure.

Contributors did note little change in new demand, and margins remained under pressure amid increased payment delays and rising material costs. Though this is expected to ease over the coming year.

Current Conditions

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Profit Margins

New Business Enquiries

New Workloads

Repair & Mainenance Workloads

Payment Delays

Headcount

Cost of Materials

Use of ADRs

Net balance, %

0

20

40

60

80

100 Net balance, %

12-month Expectations

Infrastructure Workloads

0

20

40

60

80

100 Net balance, %

Regional Charts - Haryana

Workloads

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-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Total PrivateCommercial

PrivateIndustrial

PrivateResidential

PublicResidential

Other Publicworks

Net balance, %

5



0 20 40 60 80 100

Competition

Cost of Materials


Insufficient Demand


Shortage of Labour


Shortage of Skills

Weather ConditionsQ2Q1



Activity in Karnataka was said to remain positive in Q2, although slowed somewhat from Q1. The slowdown was led by more muted residential market activity though in net balance terms respondents noted a slower pace of expansion across all asset classes.

Infrastructure workloads were said to expand at a slightly more robust rate, though still at a slower pace than was recorded in Q1. The slower expansion in workloads was also seen in the near-term pipeline as new business enquiries and new workloads both increased at a slower pace than Q1.

The outlook remains relatively upbeat, with infrastructure activity expected to support aggregate work over the next year. Headcounts and profit margins are expected to expand, despite a shortage of labour and financial constraints.

Current Conditions

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Profit Margins


New Workloads


Payment Delays

Headcount

Cost of Materials

Use of ADRsQ2Q1

Net balance, %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Q2

Q1

Net balance, %



0

20

40

60

80

100Q2

Q1

Net balance, %

Regional Charts - Karnataka

Workloads

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0

20

40

60

80

100


PrivateIndustrial

PrivateResidential

PublicResidential

Other Publicworks

Q2Q1

Net balance, %

6



0 20 40 60 80 100

Competition

Cost of Materials


Insufficient Demand


Shortage of Labour


Shortage of Skills

Weather ConditionsQ2Q1



Construction market conditions generally improved from Q1 to Q2 of 2019. Respondents noted a quicker pace of expansion in aggregate workoads, though this appears to be driven by an increase in residential market activity.

Workloads across all types of infrastructure projects increased in Q2, albeit at a slower pace than was reported in Q1 (with the exception of work on water and utilities projects). Both infrastructure and non-infrastructure workloads are expected to increase over the next twelve months.

Survey participants highlighted fewer restraints on activity during Q2 than they did in Q1. However, a majority of respondents still highlighted tight financing, the cost of materials, labour shortages, regulation and a lack of demand as constraints.

Current Conditions

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Profit Margins


New Workloads


Payment Delays

Headcount

Cost of Materials

Use of ADRsQ2Q1

Net balance, %

-20

0

20

40

60

80Q2

Q1

Net balance, %



0

20

40

60

80

100Q2

Q1

Net balance, %

Regional Charts - Maharashtra

Workloads

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


PrivateIndustrial

PrivateResidential

PublicResidential

Other Publicworks

Q2Q1

Net balance, %

7



0 20 40 60 80 100

Competition

Cost of Materials


Insufficient Demand


Shortage of Labour


Shortage of Skills

Weather Conditions



Respondents in the National Capital Region generally noted an increase in activity during the second quarter of 2019. Aggregate workloads were said to have increased, though this was driven by an increase in work on private commercial projects as activity in other market segments was little changed.

Despite this, contributors noted a robust pipeline of near-term activity. New workloads and enquiries were both said to have increased, as were repair and maintenance workloads. However, profit margins were flat, perhaps owing to increased headcount, material costs and payment delays.

A lack of demand and financial constraints were the two main factors cited as holding back activity, though some respondents highlighted uncertainty ahead of state elections.

Current Conditions

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Profit Margins


New Workloads


Payment Delays

Headcount

Cost of Materials

Use of ADRs Q2

Net balance, %

0

20

40

60

80 Net balance, %



0

10

20

30

40

50

60 Net balance, %

Regional Charts - National Capital Region

Workloads

0

10

20

30

40

50


PrivateIndustrial

PrivateResidential

PublicResidential

Other Publicworks

Net balance, %

8



0 20 40 60 80 100

Competition

Cost of Materials


Insufficient Demand


Shortage of Labour


Shortage of Skills

Weather Conditions



Survey participants in Tamil Nadu reported an increase in overall workloads during Q2, although perceptions of which segments of the market saw an expansion were mixed. The pipeline of new work in the short-term also appears robust as new business enquiries, new workloads, and repair and maintenance workloads were all said to have risen in Q2.

Despite conditions appearing to be relatively upbeat, numerous factors were cited as holding back activity. The cost of materials, competition, and labour shortages were the three factors by the greatest share of respondents. A majority of respondents also highlighted financial constraints, a lack of demand, regualtion, skills shortages and weather as holding up activity. However, despite these numerous constraints, aggregate workloads, headcounts, and profit margins are all expected to increase over the next year.

Current Conditions

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Profit Margins


New Workloads


Payment Delays

Headcount

Cost of Materials

Use of ADRs Q2

Net balance, %

0

20

40

60

80 Net balance, %



0

10

20

30

40

50

60 Net balance, %

Regional Charts - Tamil Nadu

Workloads

0

20

40

60

80

100


PrivateIndustrial

PrivateResidential

PublicResidential

Other Publicworks

Net balance, %

9



0 20 40 60 80 100

Competition

Cost of Materials


Insufficient Demand


Shortage of Labour


Shortage of Skills

Weather Conditions



Respondents in Telangana saw a broad-based increase in workloads during Q2. This was led by activity on private commercial projects. Telangana’s capital, Hyderabad, is seen as one of India’s top performing office markets¹ driven by the pharmaceutical and biotech industries (and to a lesser extent, IT).

Despite noting some of the largest increases in new workloads and new business enquiries (in net balance terms) in India, profit margins saw a degree of deterioration in Q2. This is perhaps a result of higher costs for materials, or perhaps labour or skills shortages that would put upward pressure on costs.

Margins are expected to expand over the next year, however, and are supported by an upbeat outlook for work on infrastructure projects.

Current Conditions

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Profit Margins


New Workloads


Payment Delays

Headcount

Cost of Materials

Use of ADRs

Net balance, %

0

20

40

60

80

100 Net balance, %



0

20

40

60

80

100 Net balance, %

Regional Charts - Telangana

Workloads

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


PrivateIndustrial

PrivateResidential

PublicResidential

Other Publicworks

Net balance, %

1) See RICS Q2 2019 India Commercial Property Monitor

10



Tender Prices

Tender Prices

Construction Costs

Construction Costs

Construction Costs

Building Civil Engineering Commercial Residential Total

AustraliaNew South WalesQueenslandSouth Australia*VictoriaWestern Australia

+3.1%+2.8%+2.6%+5.7%+3.7%+3.7%

+4.2%+4.0%+3.6%+5.0%+4.8%+4.6%

+3.4%+3.0%+3.1%+4.7%+4.3%+3.9%

+1.9%+1.2%+1.3%+4.9%+3.5%+2.3%

+3.2%+2.8%+3.2%+5.0%+4.5%+3.2%

Brunei* -0.6% 0.0% -1.2% -1.6% -1.0%China

BeijingGuangdongShanghaiSichuan*Tianjin*

+4.1%+3.4%+3.5%+4.6%+6.1%+4.5%

+4.0%+3.3%+3.8%+4.3%+4.3%+3.9%

+4.7%+4.3%+3.7%+5.0%+7.5%+4.5%

+3.3%+2.2%+3.0%+3.8%+5.6%+2.5%

+4.3%+3.6%+4.0%+4.7%+6.1%+3.9%

Hong Kong +3.0% +2.3% +3.7% +3.6% +3.7%

IndiaAndhra Pradesh*Delhi NCRGujarat*HaryanaKarnatakaKerala*MahashitraTamil NaduTelanganaWest Bengal*

+5.8%+9.4%+5.1%+7.9%+3.7%+6.2%+6.2%+5.2%+8.1%+6.6%+6.6%

+5.8%+9.4%+4.6%+6.2%+4.4%+5.7%+5.8%+5.7%+7.1%

+6.9%+5.6%

+5.9%+8.4%+3.5%+7.5%+3.9%+6.6%+6.7%+5.1%+7.3%+7.4%+7.1%

+5.4%+7.1%

+2.8%+4.5%+4.1%+5.5%+5.6%+5.1%+6.8%+6.5%+7.0%

+5.4%+7.1%+3.1%+5.5%+3.2%+5.3%+5.3%+5.4%+7.2%+7.4%+7.5%

Indonesia* +5.5% +6.8% +4.6% +4.2% +4.6%Japan

Kanto+2.0%

+2.1%+3.9%

+3.9%+3.8%

+3.4%+3.0%

+2.9%+3.4%

+3.4%

Macau +0.9% +0.4% +2.9% +1.5% +1.9%Malaysia

Johor* PenangSarawakSelangor/KL/PJ

+2.6%+3.6%+1.8%+3.3%+2.8%

+2.9%+5.6%+2.5%+6.0%+2.8%

+2.8%+4.6%+2.9%+3.3%+3.0%

+2.2%+3.6%+2.9%+2.4%+2.4%

+3.1%+3.4%+2.6%+4.7%+3.4%

New ZealandNorth IslandSouth Island

+3.5%+4.3%+1.5%

+4.0%+4.8%+2.3%

+4.4%+5.1%+2.8%

+3.8%+4.7%+2.0%

+4.5%+5.0%+3.3%

Singapore +0.9% +1.3% +2.6% +2.5% +2.9%South Korea +2.2% +1.0% +0.9% +1.9% +1.8%

Sri LankaWestern Province

+5.4%+5.5%

+5.3%+5.3%

+6.0%+6.1%

+5.9%+5.7%

+5.9%+5.9%

Thailand +4.0% +2.8% +3.5% +3.2% +4.4%*These estimates are drawn from small sample sizes (n<10)

RICS Consensus Expectations Tender Prices & Construction Costs (Next 12 months)

11



Labour Costs

Labour Costs

Material Costs

Material Costs

Material Costs

Material Costs

Material Costs

Material Costs

Skilled Unskilled Bricks Concrete Copper Glass Steel Total

AustraliaNew South WalesQueenslandSouth Australia*VictoriaWestern Australia

+3.5%+3.7%+2.9%+4.9%+3.3%+3.7%

+2.5%+2.2%+2.4%+1.3%+2.9%+3.2%

+3.5%+3.7%+2.9%+4.9%+3.3%+3.7%

+2.5%+2.2%+2.4%+1.3%+2.9%+3.2%

+2.9%+2.6%+2.7%+4.9%+2.8%+3.4%

+3.8%+3.6%+3.9%+2.5%+4.8%+3.6%

+3.9%+3.6%+4.8%+4.5%+3.3%+4.3%

+3.4%+2.5%+4.4%+3.5%+3.5%+4.2%

Brunei* +1.0% 0.0% +1.0% 0.0% +1.8% +1.8% +1.8% +1.8%China

BeijingGuangdongShanghaiSichuan*Tianjin*

+5.9%+7.2%+5.4%+5.6%+7.5%+4.5%

+3.7%+5.3%+1.4%+3.8%+2.0%+0.7%

+5.9%+7.2%+5.4%+5.6%+7.5%+4.5%

+3.7%+5.3%+1.4%+3.8%+2.0%+0.7%

+3.5%+3.0%+3.3%+3.9%+5.6%+0.9%

+4.5%+3.6%+5.5%+5.0%+5.7%+1.8%

+4.1%+3.3%+3.8%+4.3%+5.2%+2.6%

+3.1%+1.7%+3.2%+3.5%+4.5%+1.8%

Hong Kong +3.8% +2.7% +3.8% +2.7% +2.6% +2.9% +2.9% +2.9%

IndiaAndhra Pradesh*Delhi NCRGujarat*HaryanaKarnatakaKerala*MahashitraTamil NaduTelanganaWest Bengal*

+6.6%+7.6%+5.6%+5.5%+6.9%+8.2%+8.2%+6.1%+7.6%+5.9%+6.5%

+5.6%+6.3%+4.2%+6.9%+5.8%+7.2%+7.2%+4.7%+7.4%+5.5%+5.4%

+6.6%+7.6%+5.6%+5.5%+6.9%+8.2%+8.2%+6.1%+7.6%+5.9%+6.5%

+5.6%+6.3%+4.2%+6.9%+5.8%+7.2%+7.2%+4.7%+7.4%+5.5%+5.4%

+4.6%+7.2%+3.8%+6.4%+3.3%+4.4%+4.3%+3.7%+7.5%+5.1%+5.8%

+5.2%+7.1%+4.1%+6.4%+3.5%+5.0%+5.0%+4.7%+7.8%+5.4%+6.5%

+4.6%+7.6%+3.0%+4.4%+3.1%+5.8%+5.7%+4.2%+7.1%

+5.3%+5.0%

+4.5%+4.4%+3.4%+5.6%+3.4%+4.4%+4.3%+4.4%+8.4%+4.5%+4.3%

Indonesia* +6.0% +3.9% +6.0% +3.9% +1.9% +3.3% +2.9% +3.2%Japan

Kanto+2.9%

+2.4%+1.7%

+1.4%+2.9%

+2.4%+1.7%

+1.4%+2.4%

+2.3%+3.4%

+2.8%+3.4%

+2.8%+2.9%

+2.8%

Macau +4.4% +2.5% +4.4% +2.5% +1.5% +2.9% +4.1% +2.4%Malaysia

Johor* PenangSarawakSelangor/KL/PJ

+3.6%+3.2%+3.9%+4.7%+3.5%

+2.3%+0.7%+3.2%+3.9%+2.5%

+3.6%+3.2%+3.9%+4.7%+3.5%

+2.3%+0.7%+3.2%+3.9%+2.5%

+2.3%+4.3%+2.1%+3.8%+2.5%

+3.5%+4.3%+3.3%+5.9%+3.8%

+2.9%+3.9%+3.7%+4.2%+3.1%

+2.7%+2.4%+3.3%+3.4%+3.0%

New ZealandNorth IslandSouth Island

+5.1%+5.6%+3.8%

+3.3%+3.6%+2.6%

+5.1%+5.6%+3.8%

+3.3%+3.6%+2.6%

+2.5%+2.8%+1.9%

+3.7%+4.0%+3.1%

+3.8%+3.6%+4.1%

+3.9%+4.0%+3.8%

Singapore +3.5% +2.8% +3.5% +2.8% +1.9% +3.2% +2.8% +2.4%South Korea +3.5% +2.5% +3.5% +2.5% +2.0% +2.7% +2.7% +1.9%

Sri LankaWestern Province

+5.6%+5.8%

+4.8%+4.9%

+5.6%+5.8%

+4.8%+4.9%

+3.8%+3.6%

+4.6%+4.2%

+5.7%+5.5%

+4.7%+4.7%

Thailand +4.8% +3.9% +4.8% +3.2% +1.8% +2.6% +2.4% +1.7%*These estimates are drawn from small sample sizes (n<10)

RICS Consensus Expectations Labour & Material Costs (Next 12 months)

12



Construction and Infrastructure SurveyRICS’ Asia-Pacific and Middle East Construction and Infrastructure Survey is a quarterly guide to the trends in the construction and infrastructure markets. The report is available from the RICS website www.rics.org/economics along with other surveys covering the housing market, residential lettings, commercial property, construction activity and the rural land market.

MethodologySurvey questionnaires were sent out on 10 June 2019 with responses received until 7 July 2019. Respondents were asked to compare conditions over the latest three months with the previous three months as well as their views as to the outlook. A total of 1312 company responses were received globally. Responses in New Zealand were collected in conjunction with the Property Council of New Zealand.

Net balance = Proportion of respondents reporting a rise in a variable (e.g. occupier demand) minus those reporting a fall (if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the net balance will be 25%). Net balance data can range from -100 to +100.

A positive net balance reading indicates an overall increase while a negative reading indicates an overall decline.

Contact detailsThis publication has been produced by RICS. For all economic enquiries, including participation in the monitor please contact: [email protected]

DisclaimerThis document is intended as a means for debate and discussion and should not be relied on as legal or professional advice. Whilst every reasonable effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents, no warranty is made with regard to that content. Data, information or any other material may not be accurate and there may be other more recent material elsewhere. RICS will have no responsibility for any errors or omissions. RICS recommends you seek professional, legal or technical advice where necessary. RICS cannot accept any liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the editorial content, or by any person acting or refraining to act as a result of the material included.

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Q2 2019: India Construction and Infrastructure Survey Outlook … · 2019-08-07 · • Activity on residential projects flat amid muted demand Outlook positive amid robust infrastructure

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