PTT Group Opportunity Day 5 March 2014
PTT Group Opportunity Day 5 March 2014
Contents
1
Overview
Performance
2014 Outlook
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Indigenous (20%)
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 77 KBD
861 KBD (**)
Source: PTIT
Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries= 1006 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 102 KBD
(**) Not included Inventory
KBD = Thousand Barrels per day
Import (80%)
Crude/ Condensate 868 KBD
Refined Products 1006 KBD*
Domestic
Crude/ Condensate 212 KBD
Supply Production Sales
Export
238 KBD
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan – Dec 2013
238 KBD
Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,087 KBD
PTT’s Associated Refineries : 910 KBD
(TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)
Other Refineries : 177 KBD (ESSO)
Refined Products 212 KBD
2
Crude Export 26 KBD
945KBD
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Dec 2013
Gulf of Thailand (75%)
Power (59%)
Industry (14%)
NGV (6%)
Petrochemical Feedstock
(15%)
Industry Household
Transportation (6%)
Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL
LPG/NGL
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
3,468 MMSCFD
Main driver of the Thai economy
Supply Production Sales
3
LNG20%
Myanmar80%
Chevron 32%
PTTEP 27%
Others 41
Bypass Gas 1,039
MMSCFD
930 MMSCFD (21%)
Methane 1,499 MMSCFD
Onshore (3%)
113 MMSCFD
6 GSPs Total Capacity
2,740 MMSCFD @ Actual Heat
Import (22%)
1,021 MMSCFD
Overview Performance Outlook
81%
31% 19%
59%
2001 2013
Revenue
Net Income
Affiliate
PTT
702
3,155
IPO
1 As of 27 December 2013 2 As of December 2013
Note: THB/US$ exchange rate of 30.00
Largest company on Thai Stock exchange
Market cap ~US$27bn1 or ~ THB817bn1
Group companies:18.1%1 of Thai Stock Exchange market
capitalization
Majority owned by Thai government (66%)
51% by Ministry of Finance
15% by Vayupak Fund
Fully integrated and highly diversified over the entire O&G
value chain
International exploration and production business with 846
mmboe2 of proved reserves
Sole operator and owner of gas transmission pipelines and
GSPs in Thailand
Largest refinery group in Thailand with stakes in 5 of 6
refineries in the country
Largest petrochemical producer group in Thailand with
stakes in 6 of 8 major petrochemical plants
Leading oil marketing business with 1,381 retail stations
and 39% 2 of market share by volume
International oil trading business having traded 67.2 bn
liters in 2013
Coal business assets in Indonesia,
Madagascar, and Brunei
New Power Flagship (GPSC) to capture opportunity in
neighboring ASEAN countries
PTT is Thailand’s Largest Energy Company
PTT Public Limited Company (“PTT”) Robust revenue and Net Income growth since IPO (MMUSD)
12,553
94,756
International and local recognition
Thailand best borrower award
2013 Best CEO 2012
Best CFO 2012
Best Managed Company 2012
Best Corporate Governance 2012
Best Investor Relations 2012
Best Corporate Social
Responsibility 2012
Best Commitment to Strong
Dividend Policy 2012
SET Awards
Top Corporate
Governance Report
Award 2010 & 2011
Best Corporate Social
Responsibility Awards
2011 & 2012
81st Fortune Global
500 in 2013 95th in 2012
128th in 2011
Platts Top 250 Global
Energy Company
18th Overall Performance
of 2013
144th in 2013 167th in 2012
171th in 2011
Dow Jones Sustainability
Index (DJSI)
DJSI Member 2013-2014
(Listed in 2011)
4
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT PTT ratings at Thai sovereign level
Thai Ministry of Finance
51%
Vayupak Fund1 15%
Public 34%
Kingdom of Thailand – FC
Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-
PTT – FC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-
PTT – LC Baa1 BBB+ A- A
Largest market cap on the Thai Stock Exchange
Note: As of December 2013
• Foreign 18%
• Thai 16%
PTT PTTEP PTTGC TOP IRPC BCP Total Others
Market cap (BNUSD)2 27.2 22.0 11.9 3.8 2.2 1.3 69.2 314.0
% of SET 7.1% 5.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 18.1% 81.9%
Moody’s rating Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa1 Ba1 N.A. - -
S&P rating BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BB+ N.A. - -
PTT’s Strategic Importance to Thailand
5
1 The Vayupak Fund is a registered investment management fund in Thailand in which the Government is a major unit holder. The Government has rights of first refusal with respect to
any of our shares to be sold by the fund. Although the fund’s shareholding may be considered to be beneficially owned by the Government under international standards, such shares
are not considered to be owned by the Government for the purposes of Thai law or our compliance with certain of our debt covenants 2 Based on data as of 27 December 2013 THB/US$ exchange rate of 30.00
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Our Major Businesses & Activities
E&P
Gas
PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production
Upst
ream
Oil Marketing
Int’l Trading
Dow
nst
ream
Petrochemic
al & Refining
PTTGC 48.89% Petrochemical Flagship
TOP 49.10% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
SPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex Refinery
BCP 27.22% Complex Refinery & Retail Stations
New
Busi
ness
Coal PTT International 100% Coal Business
GPSC 30.10% Power Flagship
• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and
petrochemical products
Inte
rmedia
te
PTT PLC
• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline
• S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas
• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock
6
Business Areas Activities Company PTT’s holding (%)
Power
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
PTT Aspiration Strategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration
“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”
7
Strong
TOP Quartile ROIC
Listed in DJSI since 2011
Long
Ranked Fortune 81th
Big
Technologically Advanced and Green National Oil Company
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
-4,155 2,742
45,229
29,166
36,168
37,139
18,578
16,956
8,788
8,649
2012 2013
PTTEP
Net Income Performance: 2012 vs 2013
8
94,652
NG sales vol. increased 1% Oil vol. increased 3% Avg. GSP sales vol. decreased 4% Avg. NG gas cost increased 5% Oil margin decrease 11% More loss on NGV
Better spread margins Sales vol. increased 5% THB depreciated 7% Avg. selling price increased 1% Sales vol. increased 6%
PTT
Others
Refinery
Petrochem
Unit : MMTHB
104,608 10%
No loss on impairment of investment or asset
• Total intake increased 5% • Avg. ACC GRM increased 9% • THB depreciated 7%
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Contents
9
Overview
Performance
2014 Outlook
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Exploration & Production Performance : PTTEP (65.29%)
Product Prices Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
7.95 7.64* 7.59 7.92*
100.33 101.53 103.27 100.15
65.71 64.48** 64.86 65.58**
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
Liquid (USD/BBL)
Gas (USD/MMBTU)
Weighted Avg. (USD/BOE)
566
238
1,846 1,846
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
Unit: MMUSD
188 199 183 192
99 101 93 101
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
300
Liquid
Gas
Unit: KBOED
287
10
QoQ • Sales volume increased from Vietnam16-1 FPSO, Natuna Sea
A project, while average prices slightly decrease. • Net income decreased mainly due to higher loss from income
tax expense, non-recurring items YoY • Sales volume increased mainly from start up of BKT South and
ramp up of S1 from artificial lift technique/ Vietnam 16-1/ Montara / Natuna Sea A
• Net income stable due to high non-recurring items
293
4%
1%
6%
4%
1%
3%
276
5%
* Gas price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording, is 7.98$ for Q4 13 and 8.01$ for 2013
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
2%
** Average selling price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording is 66.4$ for Q4 13 and 66.09$ for 2013
58%
Unchanged
52%
Exploration & Production Roadmap : PTTEP Growth Strategy to 600 KBOED in 2020
**Reserves Replacement Ratio : 5-Yr Additional Proved Reserves / 5-Yr Production Volume ***Reserves Life Index (Year) : Proved Reserves / Production Volume
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
5-Year Avg.Reserves Replacement Ratio ** 0.82x 1 Reserve Life Index (year) *** 7 10
11
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Target
PTTEP’s CAPEX Planned 2014 – 2018
~16 bn
USD
26%
Thailand
Other
South East
Asia
North
America
Middle East
& Africa
Australasia
22%
1,131 1,052 1,328 1,229
877 896 922 872
644 660 427 611
870 911 958 930
655 635 623 631 311 308 279 307
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
Gas Business Performance : Natural Gas
NG Sales Volume
NG Customer Profile
2011
2012
2013
4,145 4,330 4,249
3,919
4,284 4,507
4,611 4,746
4,695 4,675
4,488 4,462
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Unit: MMSCFD
EGAT (27%)
IPP (18%)
SPP (14%)
GSP (21%)
Industry (14%)
NGV (6%)
Unit: MMSCFD
4,462 4,488
12
AVG.
4,161
4,537
4,580
GSP - Reference Product Prices
GSP Sales Volume
PP
HDPE
Naphtha
Unit : USD/Ton
333 333 333 333
837 864 863 842
1,489 1,535 1,380
1,487
1,516 1,537 1,445 1,516
622 627
688 634
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
Domestic LPG
Propane (12%)
NGL (12%)
Ethane (33%)
LPG (43%)
Unit : KTon
602 648
2,906 2,690
175 173
727 719
489 509
2,109 2,075
180 177
726 727
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
1,446 1,507
FO 3.5%
6,468
4,580
1% 1%
4%
4,537 6,211
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
4%
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Key Activities
Gas Business Performance
13
QoQ
• NG volume decreased from 4,488 mmcfd to 4,462 mmcfd mainly from lower demand from EGAT due to cold weather
• EBITDA increased from higher volume of GSP#5 together with a drop in operating expenses , despite more loss in NGV
YoY
• NG volume increase from 4,537 mmcfd to 4,580 mmcfd mainly from new 8 SPPs from Y 2012
• EBITDA decreased due to an increase in NG feed cost, more loss on NGV and lower margin from industry
Gas Business EBITDA
Unit: MMTHB
52,266
12,381
Others
TM
S&M
GSP
45,098
13
QoQ
• Lower NGV Sales volume from closing NGV station during political demonstration
YOY
• Sales volume increased by 10%, also, feed cost increased
• No Government subsidy, while special discount given to public transportation customers
NGV Sales Volume
Unit : Approx. KTon/Day
Vol. MMCFD 311 308 278 307
14%
12%
11,076
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
NGV
8.66 8.57
7.73
8.54
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
10% 1%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
2012 2013
16%
30%
41%
55%
-42%
GSP
Capacity (MTA)
6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7
New Supply
PTTEP (M9)
6.7 6.7
Gas Business Roadmap
14
LNG Ph#2
Pipeline Capacity
(MMSCFD) 4,380 7,180 7,180 5,780 7,180
LNG Capacity
(MTA)
5 5 10 10 5 5
• Offshore compressor
• BVW#7 compressor unit4
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
• 4th onshore
• Nakhon Sawan • 4th onshore
Midline compressor
• Nakhon Ratchasima
7,180
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Unit : MMSCFD
Power- EGAT
- IPP
- SPP
GSP
IndustryNGV
60%
20%
13%
9%
7%
18%
15%
58%
6%
5,826 6,031
23,035 23,821
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
524 535 1,831 2,164 2,510
1,553
13,603 11,197
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
3,250 3,034
15,929
13,361
0.72 0.66
0.86 0.77
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
Oil Business Performance : PTT
Contribution Margin 1/ Oil BU - EBITDA
Sales Volume 2/ Key Activities
Unit : MMTHB Unit : THB/Liter
Unit : MM Liter
1/ Excluded non–oil business
15
QoQ
• Better sales volume from aviation and diesel during travelling season
• Lower margin from capped diesel price as well as higher ethanol cost
YoY
• Higher sales volume mainly from gasoline and aviation
• Lower margin from higher ethanol cost and higher stock loss • Continuously growing non-oil business performance
Oil
Non-Oil
3%
11%
2/ Only PTT and PTTRM
8%
16%
7%
4%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
962 1,541
4,280
5,426
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
27%
60% 0.06
0.09
0.06 0.08
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
33% 50%
16,784 16,842
68,342 67,208
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
International Trading Business Performance : PTT
Contribution Margin* Trading BU - EBITDA*
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : MMTHB Unit :THB/Liter
Unit : MM Liter
* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard
16
QoQ
• Sales volume maintain at the same level • Higher margins from better selling prices in accordance with
global oil market prices YoY • Lower sales volume from out – in transactions • Better margins from lower domestic condensate discount
0.3%
2%
* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss
3.33 0.95
-0.32
0.55
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
2%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
95% 93% 90%
94%
3.67 2.03
4.50 3.77
7.39
3.81 4.35 4.75
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
106.3 106.8 109.1
105.5
GRM/GIM Net Income (100%)
Refinery Intake Key Activities
Refining Business Performance
Unit : MMTHB
740
Unit : KBD
BCP
IRPC
SPRC
TOP
BCP
SPRC
TOP
Aggregated Util.
17
QoQ • Mkt GRM decreased mainly due to decline of gasoline spread from
lower seasonal demand • A/C GRM decreased from lower stock gain • PX price decreased from lower PTA productions and increasing supply
in Indonesia • BZ price increase due to tight supply in EU & US and high Styrene
Monomer demand in festive season
2013 • A/C GRM slightly increased mainly from stock gain • A/C GIM improved from BZ spread due to tightening supply • Higher utilization rate • FX Loss form Baht depreciation at year end
IRPC
Unit : USD/BBL
A/C GRM
A/C GIM
Mkt GRM
Dubai
699 735
11.13
7.36 7.78
22%
5% 1%
6.37
733
86%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
34%
1,654
12,197
20,313 19,850
Overview Performance Q1/2014 Outlook
Stock Gain/Loss
Refinery upgrading (TOP): HCU Revamp • COD: Q1/2014 Emission Improvement Project (EIP): • COD: Q1/2014 CDU-3 Crude Preheat Train Improvement: • COD: Q3/2014 Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB): TPX JV with Mitsui 75:25 • Upgrade existing Benzene and Kerosene into higher valued
product • COD: 2015 TOP SPP: (2 blocks of SPP) • COD: 2016 Solvent Expansion(SAKC): COD Q2/2014
UHV : Progress 52%, Under construction, piling and
foundation; COD expected in Q3/15
Refinery : Replacing new CDU (100KBD) in 2014 Solar: Completion of 118 MW of Solar Power Plants in 2014 Biodiesel Plant #2 - 0.45 ML/ day of Biodiesel Production capacity • Expected COD: 2015
Refinery Project Update
18
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/2014 Outlook
To be updated
Petrochemical Business Performance
Spread Margins Net Income (100%)
Key Activities
Unit : MMTHB
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
6,766 PTTGC
HMC Polymers
37,478
10,352
19
HDPE-Naphtha PX-Naphtha
Others
11%
30% 14%
33,290
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
3% 35%
QoQ • Olefin prices increased due to tight supply and improved demand • PX price decline due to increased supply & soften demand • Although utilization increased from Q3 (I-4/1 & LDPE S/D), Lower
sales volume from soften demand
2013 • Spread margin increased from higher demand following better
sentiment of US and EU economies • Sales volume increased despite GSP#5 shutdown • FX Loss form Baht depreciation at year end
Overview Performance Q1/2014 Outlook
Add PP, BZ
HDPE-Naphtha
Unit : USD/Ton
BZ-Naphtha
PP- Naphtha
565 582
427
556 592 585
491
584
333 328 255
373
544 465
550
552
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
PX-Naphtha
Sales Volume
78% 94%
89% 89%
Unit : KTon
PTTGC – Olefin & Derivatives
HMC-PP
Phenol/Acetone/BPA
PTTGC - BTX
Olefin Chain Util.
91% 93%
87% 90%
Aromatics Chain Util.
514 529
1,985
2,045
Q3/13 Q4/23 2012 2013
878 973
3,576
3,773
Q3/13 Q4/23 2012 2013
3% 3% 6%
QoQ • Olefin prices increased due to tight supply and improved demand • PX price decline due to increased supply & soften demand • Utilization increased from Q3 due to GSP#5 resumption,
resulting to higher sales volume
2013 • Spread margin increased from higher demand following better
sentiment of US and EU economies • Olefin sales volume increased due to PTTAC COD since Jan 2013 • Aromatics sale volume increase due to Aromatics planned S/D in
2012 • FX Loss from Baht depreciation at year end
11%
Synergy: • Pure H2 via New PSA : COD Q2/2014 • Off gas upgrading at olefins : COD Q4/2014 Debottlenecking & Expansion: 1) BV Project • 75 KTA of Butadiene, 25 KTA of Butene-1 • COD: Q4/13 2) TOCGC Plant Improvement Project • Increases EOE capacity by 90 KTA from 336 KTA to 426 KTA • COD : Q3/15 3) PX Expansion • Increases ARO II capacity from 655 to 770 KTA • COD: Q4/15 4) PTTPE Cracker Debottlenecking • 12% Olefins increase • COD: 2016 5) Phenol 2 • 250 KTA of Phenol, 155 KTA of Acetone • COD: Q3/15
PBS 20 KTA • Start construction in Q1/2013 • Expected COD: 2015
Petrochemical Project Update
20
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Q1/2014 Outlook
To be updated
3.2 (4.9)
108.5
9.4
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (94.58%)
Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : MMUSD
70 70
88
73
50 40
55
48
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
Unit : USD/Ton
Q3/13 Q4/13 2012 2013
2,915
Unit : KTon
3,334 Jembayan
Sebuku
21
Selling price
Cash Costs
10,818
0.1%
20% 13%
17%
>100% 91%
3%
11,187
*unaudited
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
14%
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
QoQ • Cash cost was lower since outsourcing and staff costs decreased
from closing office in Perth • Performance decreased mainly from an increase in depreciation
expense YoY • Sales volume slightly increased due to committed agreement • Performance dropped following lower selling price and higher
depreciation expense from Sebuku’s Northern Lease area • Lower cash cost from cost reduction initiative in both Sebuku and
Jembayan mines
SAR Project Update
22
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
2014 Operation Plan Overview:
• Continue cost reduction initiative program under
downturn market
• Mine plan optimization for fully utilized the coal
resources
• Corporate reorganization to improve working
efficiency and as part of cost reduction program
• Study on lower quality coal market to define new
product that increases SAR resources optimization
378 294
1,145
Q3/13 Q4/13 2013
Moving Forward (Capacity) Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : MMBaht Unit : MW
Unit : KMWh
23
QoQ • Higher power sales volume from Sriracha plant S/D and higher
sales to EGAT • Higher steam sales volume to customers • Lower income from lower EGAT selling price in winter and
higher admin costs
52%
22%
Other Businesses : Power - GPSC (30.10%)
1,934 2,126
7,850
1,169 1,214
4,496
Q3/13 Q4/13 2013
1,521 2,089
267
Current Next Step*
1,553
2,356
Renewable
Conventional
Unit : KTon
10% (Power)
4% (Steam)
32
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
* Business Plan 2557 (@ 25 Dec 2013) (To be revised)
GPSC Project Update
24
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Update Progress (Q4-2013)
Purchase 51% share in IRPC clean power (IRPCCP) from IRPC
Complete transfer share of 4 power assets from PTT/PTTI
Combined Heat and Power Producing Company Limited (CHPP)
Bang Pa-In Cogeneration Company Limited (BIC)
Thai Solar Renewable Company Limited (TSR)
Natee Synergy Company Limited (NSC)
Highlight Activities 2014 (planning)
Transfer share of the rest 3 power assets from PTT/PTTI
Ratchaburi Power Company Limited (RPCL)
NavaNakorn Electricity Generating Company Limited (NNEG)
Nam Lik 1 Power Company Limited (NL1PC)
GPSC Initial Public Offering Readiness
Net Income
Unit : MMTHB
106.3 106.8 109.1
105.5
723,152 749,995
2,793,833 2,842,688
Q3/2013 Q4/2013 2012 2013
56,691 58,984
227,843 228,972
Q3/2013 Q4/2013 2012 2013
30,877 15,392
104,608 94,652
Q3/2013 Q4/2013 2012 2013 10.81 5.32 36.59 33.07
PTT Consolidated Performance: 2013
25
Dubai (USD/BBL)
EBITDA
Net Income
EPS (THB/Share)
Revenue
2013
72%
17%
7% 4%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others PTTEP
71%
20%
6% 3%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
31%
39% 18%
9% 3%
PTT
PetChem
Others
PTTEP
Refining
Revenue
EBITDA
2%
4%
0.5%
4%
50%
10%
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
650,561
740,649
506,804
537,929
328,813
362,774
143,333
160,370
729,896
823,178
437,344
468,507
462,271
510,037
12.3 12.5
0.4 0.4
1.4 1.4
2012 2013
Other Liabilities
PP&E
Others Non-
current Assets
Other Current Assets L/T
Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)
Total Equity
Unit: MMTHB
Cash & S/T
Invest
Increased assets :
• PTTEP’s Assets
• 4th
Onshore pipeline
• Nakonsawan pipeline
Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0
Net Debt/Equity ≤ 1.0
ICR*
Strong Financial Position
PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level
− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+)
− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
31 Dec 12 31 Dec 13
1,629,511
1,801,722
11%
Statement of Financial Position : Solid and Secured
26
*ICR = EBITDA/Interest Expense
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
7.71 8.75
13.43
22.40
30.5734.14 34.82
18.3321.06
29.58
36.64
33.07
2.50 2.85 4.006.75
9.25 10.50 11.508.00 8.50
10.2513.00 13.00 13.00
32.4%32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5% 39.3%
1 1 11 1 1
Dividend Policy & Historical Payments
27
PTT’s minimum payout ratio
PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
UNIT : Baht / share
EPS
DPS
Dividend payout
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Gas 42%
Oil & Trading 17%
R&D, Others 3%
M&A and
Investment Oversea 24%
LNG 14%
29,903 22,826 17,17730,103
37,839
11,7539,319
11,925
11,50310,4156,888
3,206765
45744
38,404
17,563 29,04318,733
18,709
201 201 2016 2017 201
Investment in Joint Venture and Its subsidiaries
Head Office and Others
Oil and International Trading
Natural Gas
Unit: MMTHB
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 327bn ($10bn) during 2014-2018
CAPEX Breakdown : 5 Years
By Business Unit
JV &
Investment in
Subsidiaries
38%
28
, 1 , ,
86,
, 1
4th pipeline & extension
LPG import facility
LNG, M&A and Investment Oversea
Overview Performance Q4/2013 2014 Outlook
Contents
29
Overview
Performance
2014 Outlook
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
: - US Economics Recovery
: - IMF forecast ASEAN-51 GDP growth in 2014 around 5.1%
: - US QE Tapering effect to SEA’s Currencies Weaken
30
Economic 2014 Outlook : Challenges ahead 2014
• New Financial Policy in China • Chinese try to support Yuan as a global currency Japan continues its stimulus policies • BOJ will pursuit a full-stream quantitative easing program
• Thai Baht appreciation will effect Thai Exporter • Expected Thailand GDP growth in 2013 around 4.5-5.5%
US Market : will see the better growth in 2014
: - Effect from QE Tapering
EU market: pass the worst, recovery is still modest : - EU Economy tends to recover from recession
: - EU has a risk on stagnation
China market: cooling down growth : - Sustain their growth rate around 7.4% in Y2014
Thailand market: Political Impasse Drags On Much Longer Than Expected : - Export growth according to global economies recovery
: - How to solve rice mortgage scheme - Prolong of political conflicts - THB depreciate as fund outflow
30
AEC market : keep an eyes on
1 Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
: - China Economic Growth Continues to Cool - Chinese Credit Controls : slower sustainable growth
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
PTT Performance: On Track : - Performance tends to have minimal impact
: - Hanging Issue: on LPG and NGV Pricing Capped
109.8
116.2
122.5
117.3
107.3
94.4
99.2
108.6 111.2
106.3 107.3
106.3 107.6 111.5
105.6
101.7 100.3
100.3
103.5 107.1 108.3
106.6
105.9
107.9
104.0
104.5 103.9
102.4 102.0
102.9 103.13 103.63
104.00 103.75
104.75 104.88
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-…
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-…
Sep-1
2
Oct
-12
Nov-…
Dec-
12
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-…
Jun-1
3
Jul-13
Aug-…
Sep-1
3
Oct
-13
Nov-…
Dec-
13
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-
14
Apr-
14
May-…
Jun-1
4
Jul-14
Aug-…
Sep-1
4
Oct
-14
Nov-…
Dec-
14
WTI Brent Dubai Dubai Forecast (PTT Group PRISM)
Market 2014 Outlook : Crude Oil
31 Source: PRISM (PTT Group) Estimated (24.02.2014)
Impact from Cold Snap in US
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) geopolitical
uncertainty especially in Libya and South-Sudan
IMF forecast GDP Growth 3.7% mainly from Advanced
Countries
Dubai crude oil price in 2014 is expected to be around 100-105 USD/BBL
Forecast
Monthly Avg. Crude Oil
Significant production growth from shale oil/gas assets
Ongoing negotiation with P5+1 to relax more economic sanction of Iran
Refineries Maintenance in Q ’1
Psychology level @ 100 USD/BBL
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Market 2014 Outlook : Henry Hub Natural Gas Price
32
EIA’s projected HH Price in 1 is 1 USD/MMBTU ( 0.44 USD/MMBTU)
• At the end of 2013, 4 LNG Export Projects, total capacity 45 MTPA, have been approved by DOE to transport
US gas to NON-FTA countries (Sabine Pass LNG, Freeport LNG, Lakes Charles LNG and Cove Point LNG). If all
projects are built, US will be ranked as 3rd largest LNG export country (1st Qatar, 2nd Australia)
• More than $ 70 Billion is expected to invest and to rejuvenate US Petrochemical industry as result of
affordable gas price and feedstock.
• Shale and other unconventional gas supplies should keep US gas balances in surplus for the foreseeable
future until LNG export projects as well as petrochemical complexes have been built and started production
in 2016 onward.
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
• Impact of US Freezing Temperature
• US aim to be 3rd largest LNG export country
Significant production growth from shale gas assets
US LNG Project List : Rank by DOE’s application order
Source : Short term 2014 Outlook, February 2014 EIA, Street Research, Bloomberg and PTT
Non-FTA approved
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Fukushima Daiichi Incident
Last Nuclear Power Plant in Japan was shutdown
$/MMBTU
Actual JKM Price
Forward JKM Price
Winter Season Winter Season Winter Season
Average JKM Price 2013 = 16.548 $/MMBtu
AVG. JKM Price in 2014 is expected approximately 16-17 USD/MMBTU
• Strong Winter Demand from North Asia
• Fewer Reload Cargoes from Europe to Asia
due to higher demand since EU Economic
recover.
• Uncertainty of Japan Nuclear Policy to restart
Nuclear Power Plant
Other Source of Supply come to market (African Cargoes) Alternative fuel will replace LNG demand when JKM price keep higher.
Market 2014 Outlook:Asia LNG Spot Price (JKM : Japan Korea Marker)
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Market 2014 Outlook : GRM
Strong Winter Demand
Limited Net Capacity addition as refinery closure in Japan, Australia & Project postponement in China/India
Expect Less Chinese export as government impose import tax on Biodiesel
34 Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated (February 2014)
Singapore GRM in 2014 is estimated to be around 5-6 USD/BBL
Forecast
GO
Mogas
FO
Impact from Jubail Refinery in Saudi Arabia (400 KBD)
Close Arbitrage to move gasoil cargo west on mild winter in Europe
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oc
t-1
3
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oc
t-1
4 0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oc
t-1
3
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oc
t-1
4
Y 2014
PP
HDPE
Naphtha
• HDPE-Naphtha expected to be around 580-680 USD/TON
• PP-Naphtha expected to be around 600-700 USD/TON
• Bz-Naphtha forecasted to be around 330-430 USD/TON
• PX-Naphtha forecasted to be around 360-460 USD/TON
Market 2014 Outlook : Petrochemical
35
Unit :USD/ton
Source: PRISM Estimated
Olefins Aromatics
New PX Capacity in South Korea, China, India and Singapore
Keep an eye on Indonesian Economics due to sentiment on Rupiah value
Spread Spread
Naphtha
PX
BZ
Y2014
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
Olefins spreads tend to slightly higher while PX spreads lower
Tighten supply from Propylene Plant T/A
Higher PE Demand from Chinese restocking after Chinese New Year
Light Feed in US will help to support Benzene Market
Thank you PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department
Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected] http://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR
The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information
contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial
performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future
events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially
from those projected.
Disclaimer
Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information
In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange
and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum
Exploration and Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in this presentation reflects the Company’s
best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its
proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources
data disclosed in this presentation. Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This
presentation may contain the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”, and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated
otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering
data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known
reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations.
Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data
suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable.
Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date,
to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable.
The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market availability, political, environmental, or technological.
170,816 188,102 181,399229,606 221,201 208,298
72,337100,069 125,972
162,090215,507 259,665
31 De c 11 31 De c 12 31 De c 13 31 De c 11 31 De c 12 31 De c 13
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk
Debt Portfolio
Managed debt according to financial risk and policy
Consolidated PTT Only Unit : MMTHB
37
: Cost of debts ~ 4.57 %
: % fixed-rate ~ 81.69 %
: Avg. debt life ~ 8.55 years
: Cost of debts ~ 4.38 %
: % fixed-rate ~ 77.41 %
: Avg. debt life ~ 7.78 years
243,153
(30%)
(70%)
(35%)
(65%)
288,171 307,371
(41%)
(59%)
391,696
(41%)
(59%)
436,708
(49%)
(51%)
(55%)
(45%)
467,963 USD
THB
Note : Data as of 31 Dec 2013 (THB/USD = 32.9494 THB/JPY = 0.31587) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.
38
Free Cash flow
-3,079 69,963
Investing
2012 -178,083
2013 -95,364
CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset) -116,623 -114,457
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -86,758 -11,256
Dividend/Interest Received 15,758 18,488
Others 9,540 11,861
Operating
2012 175,004
2013 165,327
Net Income 104,608 94,652
Changes in assets & liabilities -25,141 -25,592
Income Tax -40,783 -45,822
Non-Cash Adjustment 120,655 126,342
Interest-net 15,665 15,747
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
136,924 157,683
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
116,140 136,924
Cash In/(Out)
20,784 20,759
Adjustment
-3,862 6,586
38
Financing 27,725 -55,790
Repayment Loans -122,419 -76,726
Interest paid -20,249 -20,089
Dividend paid -42,308 -46,367
Received from share issue 37,413 280
Received from loans/Bonds 175,288 87,112
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows for 2013 & 2012
39
Free Cash flow
-5,831 59,573
Financing 2,103 -43,214
Repayment Loans -35,043 -55,754
Interest paid -12,166 -13,472
Dividend paid -34,261 -37,116
Received from share issue - -
Received from loans/Bonds 83,573 63,128
Investing
2012 -65,729
2013 16,981
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) -20,433 -22,912
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -61,585 -4,281
Dividend/Interest Received 31,329 37,880
Others -15,040 6,294
Operating
2012 59,898
2013 42,592
Net Income 74,697 63,988
Changes in assets & liabilities -3,380 -12,063
Income Tax -3,725 -2,276
Non-Cash Adjustment -14,392 -15,199
Interest - net 6,698 8,142
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
47,642 63,927
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
51,341 47,642
Cash In/(Out)
-3,699 16,285
Adjustment
29 -74
39
Statements of Cash Flows for Year 2013 & 2012 (PTT Only)
Net Income
Unit : MMTHB
106.3 106.8
723,152 749,995
Q3/2013 Q4/2013
56,691 58,984
Q3/2013 Q4/2013
30,877
15,392
Q3/2013 Q4/2013 10.81 5.32
PTT Consolidated Performance: Q4/2013
40
Dubai (USD/BBL)
EBITDA
Net Income
EPS (THB/Share)
Revenue
Q4/2013
73%
16%
7% 4%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others PTTEP
69%
22%
3% 6% PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
36%
33% 27%
4% -0.4%
PTT
PetChem
Others
PTTEP
Refining
Revenue
EBITDA
4%
50%
4%
41
PTT Group Performance : 2013
Overview Performance 2014 Outlook
% share
Unit : MMTHB Y2012 Y2013 YoY Y2012 Y2013 YoY
PTT Net operating Income 45,229 29,166 -36% 45,229 29,166 -36%
E&P - PTTEP 57,316 56,155 -2% 65.29% 36,168 37,139 3%
Petro. Business 37,926 32,854 -13% 18,578 16,956 -9%
- PTTGC 34,449 32,841 -5% 48.89% 16,796 16,772 0%
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTES/
PTTME/PTTMCC3,477 13 -100% 40-50% 1,782 184 -90%
Refining 20,701 20,411 -1% 8,788 8,649 -2%
- TOP 12,656 10,854 -14% 49.10% 6,391 4,738 -26%
- IRPC -755 849 n.m. 38.51% -385 1,265 n.m.
- SPRC 4,497 3,977 -12% 36.00% 1,591 1,393 -12%
- BCP 4,303 4,731 10% 27.22% 1,191 1,253 5%
Others Business
Inter- PTTI group
(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-5,951 -2,701 55% 100% -6,005 -2,854 52%
Gas -PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M)/ PTTLNG 2,531 3,520 39% 50-100% 900 2,600 n.m.
Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP/ CHPP/ BIP/ BIC/ NNEG 1,941 2,577 33% 20-30% 617 882 43%
Oil & Oth.- PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/Others 549 2,481 n.m. 33-100% 333 2,019 n.m.
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 114,513 115,172 1% 59,379 65,486 10%
PTT Conso. Net Income 160,242 144,463 -10% 104,608 94,652 -10%
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00% Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00% PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00% Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC* 48.95% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00% PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd. PTTOM 100.00% Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 36.44% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00024% Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%
42
Others
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Associates Equity Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00% Nava Nakorn Electricity Generation NNEG 30.00% Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd GPSC 30.10% Others Cost Ratchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%
Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00% PTT PMMA Co., Ltd. PTTPMMA 100.00% Associates Equity PTT Global Chemical Plc. PTTGC 48.89% PTT Maintenance and Engineering PTTME 40.00% PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PTTMCC 50.00% Refining Associates Equity Thai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.51% Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00% Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22% Others Fair Value Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%
Subsidiaries Consolidate Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00% PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC 100.00%
International Trading Business Group
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%
Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group
Associates Equity PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%
E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group
Data as of 31 Dec 2013
International Investment
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%
PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%
43
Natural Gas Price Structure : 2013
Customers1 Sales Price Structure
Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs + +
Power Producers 60%
: EGAT 28%
: IPP 19%
: SPP 13%
Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
1.75%
9.33%
21.9 Bt/MMBtu
GSP 20% Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Petrochemicals Feedstocks
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Industry 14% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
NGV 6% Capped at 10.5 Baht/Kg
Ethane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
NGL Reference to Naphtha market price
Local Cooking Gas
Export Cooking Gas
Capped at 333 USD/ton
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions
1 As at October, 2013
Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry
Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2013-2030) : Total ~ 2% : Power ~ 3% : GSP ~ -1% : Industry ~ 2% : NGV ~ 3%
44
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
11 1 1 1 1 1
Source : PTT
Power
GSP
Industry
78%
21%
8%
2,635
14%
13%
12%
59% 67%
14%
NGV
8%
6%
6,462MMscfd
Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand
45
Commercial Primary Energy Consumption
Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010 Revised 3 (June 2012)/ PTT analysis as of 25 Feb 2014
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2003
200
200
2006
2007
200
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
201
201
2016
2017
201
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
202
202
2026
2027
202
34%
35%
16%
13%
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal/Lignite
Hydro/Import
KBD
27%
38%
17%
4%
13%
Renewable
2%
3,602
3,184
2,758
2,280
1,863
32%
40%
14%
12% 2%
29%
39%
16%
3% 13%
30%
40%
15%
2%
13%
1% Nuclear
Gas Business Generates Stable Returns
Sole owner and operator of entire
gas transmission pipelines in
Thailand (3,752 km), a regulated
business
• IRROE ranges between
12.5% - 18% for transmission
pipeline investment
Supply & marketing of natural gas
provides fixed margin with long-term
contracts of 25-30 years
6 Gas Separation Plants; Total
production 6.7 MTA; are on
petrochemical market price-linked
profit sharing basis
Overview Gas transmission pipeline capacity
Phu Hom
Nam Phong
Thailand
Ban I Tong
Ratchaburi
Nakhon Sawan
SBK
NBK
The Luang
Nakhon Ratchasima
Kaong Khoi
Samut Prakan
ESB
Bang Pakong
Khanom
Songkhla
Sadao
Yadana
Yetagun
Chon Buri
Rayong
Wang Noi
Thai-Malaysia
(JDA)
Arthit
Arthit–FPSO Erawan
Pailin Bongkot
South Bongkot
Chevron–Additional
Platong
Tantawan
Benchamas
Natural gas fields
Power plants Gas separation plant
1,2,3,5,6 in Rayong
Gas separation unit 4
in Nakhon Si Thammarat
Existing pipeline
Future pipeline
Andaman Sea
46