PTI White Paper on PML 1st year performance

BY

PTIAUGUST 2014

WHITE PAPER

The Truth Behind theDeceptions Concerning

PML-N’s First Year

IN PLAIN SIGHT:

PREFACE

Rising above Lahore’s busy Ferozepur Road, sealed off by steel barrier walls in splendid isolation from the rest of the traffic, rolls the Lahore Bus Rapid Transit, or Metrobus. The Metrobus provoked controversy even before it was inaugurated, to great pomp and fanfare, in February 2013. Critics pointed out that no other city’s buses operate behind steel barriers, raising the obvious question about whether the Lahore Metrobus, the pet project of Chief Minister of Punjab Shabbaz Sharif, was a means to generate business for Ittefaq Steel Industry, the family business of the Sharif family. Pointed questions were also raised about the awarding of contracts without the required approvals. In its typical fashion, the Sharif government has denied all allegations without actually addressing their substance.

The biggest of the unanswered questions is simply this: where, exactly, did all the money go? The reported cost of the Metrobus project was PKR 29.8 billion (the actual cost is unknowable without an independent audit of the project, which is unlikely to happen anytime soon). Even assuming the reported cost is close to accurate, at a total route length of just 28 kilometers that cost works out to a cool PKR 1.06 billion per kilometer.

Meanwhile, just beneath the Metrobus’s gleaming steel barriers, below the street level, invisible to the citizens of Lahore but vital to their existence, runs the city’s system of water pipes. So poorly maintained and outdated is this system that the city’s water supply is routinely infiltrated by raw sewage . Even more ominously, 65 percent of the people living in Lahore are consuming water contaminated with arsenic – drinking it, cooking with it, brushing their teeth, bathing their children in it -- and nine sewage samples taken from Lahore (from a total of 11 taken in Punjab so far this year) have tested positive for the polio virus .

It is difficult to imagine a more perfect illustration of the grandiosity and cynicism of the ruling PML-N government than this stark juxtaposition. Pretentious showcase projects provide something to point to, regardless of any rational consideration of return on investment – at PKR 1.06 billion per kilometer; after all, the Metrobus route could probably have been paved with gold. On the other hand, the actual workaday business of governing, such as, say, ensuring that the drinking water is not poisonous, appears to inspire no particular sense of urgency on the part of PML-N. And the reason why not is easy enough to understand. No one sees what is underground. Out of sight means out of mind.

Nearly all people live in slavery for the reason the Spartans gave us as the cause of the slavery of the Persians: they are not able to utter the syllable “no.” To be

able to utter this word is the only way to preserve one’s freedom.Nicolas Chamfort

19th century French writer and dramatist

Khan, Rameez (14 February 2012). “Rapid Bus Transit System: Plans for First Bus-Only Road Stretch Extended”. The Express Tribune “Lahore BRT System Study”. Lahore Transport Company. Malhi, Waleed (27 February 2013). “No way around arsenic pollution.” Pakistan Today. Ibid. (Un-bylined) “LAHORE: The city has turned to be ‘top high risk city of the country’ for poliovirus as another sewage sample has tested positive.”

(11 July 2014). Dawn.

White Paper by PTI - August 2014

The failures of PML-N, however, are in plain sight. The Sharifs may dangle shiny trinkets like the Metrobus to shift the people’s gaze from the wreckage PML-N has made of Pakistan. But as the old saying goes, you can fool all of the people some of the time, and you can even fool some of the people all of the time. But you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.

This paper documents the catastrophic performance of PML-N’s first year (this time) in office, from its assumption of power following the rigged May 2013 elections through July 2014. Some of the indicators were already obvious to any sentient Pakistani: the worsening energy crisis, the skyrocketing inflation, and the appalling public health conditions. Others, such as PML-N’s fiscal and monetary policies, may not be felt as directly in the daily lived experience of the average Pakistani, but they are important behind-the-scenes drivers of that experience – and provide yet more evidence of PML-N’s corruption.

Apologists for the ruling party would have the people of Pakistan deny the evidence of their own eyes. In support of claims that things are getting better, PML-N offers studies and statistics that are, not to put too fine a point on it, lies. These are not cases of data that are subject to different analyses, or of alternative interpretations on which reasonable people can disagree in good faith. Rather, PML-N fabricates and disseminates deliberate falsehoods, and to add insult to injury, the government finances its campaign of deception from the public purse.

It has been said that those who will not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The sheer brazenness of the PML-N government during this most recent reign suggests that when history does repeat, it is not as an instant replay but instead as an even darker version of the past.

To break this endless cycle – this nearly 70-year pattern of careening from one corrupt and illegitimate regime to the next – will indeed require an historic struggle. The most important weapon for that struggle is the truth. A regime that depends on the systematic use of lies and manipulation cannot survive forever provided there are people willing to expose the truth, and people willing to listen and act on it.

This paper focuses on PML-N’s performance at the federal level. But given PML-N’s status as effectively a family-owned enterprise of the Sharif brothers, relevant information has been included from their stronghold in Punjab – that supposedly most prosperous of Pakistan’s states, where the grinning Sharif brothers cut ribbons on vanity projects and then hand the invoices to working people whose drinking water is laced with arsenic and sewage.

It is worth pointing out that the report concerning Punjab’s unsafe water supply appeared in February 2013, just two weeks after the pomp and circumstance of the Metrobus launch. Eighteen months later, there has been no word from the PML-N government, provincial or federal, about any step to address the public health emergency posed by the toxic water. But the next phase of the precious Metrobus expansion is scheduled to launch in January 2015. The opening ceremony party is sure to be epic.

LahoreJuly 2014

FBR Federal Board of Revenue (Government Agency)FDI Foreign Direct InvestmentGCR Global Competitiveness Report (published by the World Economic Forum)GDP Gross Domestic Product. The market value of all officially recognized goods and services

produced within the borders of the country over a given period of time (e.g., a year).GST General Sales TaxIHC Islamabad High CourtIPR Institute of Policy Reforms (an independent think tank)LSM Large-scale manufacturingNADRA National Database and Registration AuthorityNFC* National Fertilizer CorporationNICL* National Insurance Company LimitedNTDC National Transmission and Dispatch CompanyNPCC* National Power Construction CompanyNPRA National Power Regulatory Authority (governmental body responsible for the nation’s power

supply)NTDC* National Transmission and Dispatch CompanyOGDCL* Oil and Gas Development Company LimitedPBS Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (government agency)PEMRA* Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory AuthorityPEPCO* Pakistan Electric Power CompanyPKR Pakistan rupeesPMDC* Pakistan Mineral Development Company (Pvt) LtdPSO* Pakistan State OilPTA Pakistan Telecommunications Authority (government agency responsible for auctioning

spectrum rights for 3G and 4G cell phone service)RPP Rental power plants (privately owned power generation facilities)SBP State Bank of PakistanSC Supreme CourtSECP* Securities and Exchange Commission of PakistanSNGPL* Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Ltd.SOE State-owned enterpriseSSGPL* Sui Southern Gas Pipeline Ltd.SRO Statutory Regulatory OrderTDAP* Trade Development Authority of PakistanUSD United States dollars

*Indicates one of the key institutions or departments from among the 28 being run by acting heads hand-picked by PML-N rather than by a permanent leader duly recruited, vetted and confirmed via the fair and transparent process promised by PML-N. Note that this 28-institution figure equals 80 percent of all state-owned enterprises.

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

White Paper by PTI - August 2014 White Paper by PTI - August 2014

Executive Summary 01

Table of Figures 08

PML-N 2013-2014 Performance l Gross Domestic Product 09l Worst Regional Performance 10l Global Competitiveness (or lack thereof) 11l CORRUPTION AND BUREAUCRACY- HINDERING BUSINESS 12l Foreign Direct Investment (or lack thereof) 13l Inflation 14l Tax Revenue (or lack thereof) 15l Unemployment 17l Trade Balance 18l Budget Deficit 19l Public Debt 20l Eurobond 22l Corruption and Mismanagement 24l Energy Sector 24l Nandipur Power Project 26l The “Notorious” Rental Power Plants 28l Privatization loot sale starts-UBL shares undersold 29l Foreign Junkets 30l Youth Loan Scheme, Brought to You by Sharif’s Daughter 31l 3G/4G Spectrum License Auction 32l Destruction of State-Owned Enterprises 33l PML-N Fake Mandate, Fake Promises, Fake Performance 37 Conclusion 45

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYLike a chronic recurring nightmare, PML-N’s third term in office has been marked by even more astonishing degrees of corruption and incompetence than its first two. The party seems to have taken very much to heart the obvious lesson of recent history: that it can with impunity rig elections, soak the poor to further enrich themselves and their friends, appoint their lackeys to critical jobs in Pakistan’s state-owned enterprises, use the public purse as their personal ATM -- and brazenly lie about all of it. And they appear to have been emboldened by the experience. In one of the most ominous developments in Pakistan’s troubled political history, PML-N’s behavior shows unmistakable signs of a drift towards totalitarianism, as the machinery of the state is used to spread lies and to crush anyone who attempts to tell the truth.

Anyone naïve enough to wonder whether PML-N might possibly have undergone some sort of purifying spiritual transformation during Nawaz Sharif’s exile in Saudi Arabia would have been restored quickly back to reality by a glance at PML-N’s first budget. Presented immediately after the party took over the government (in the wake of elections that might perhaps be most charitably described as irregular), the PML-N budget perfectly reflected the “of the elite, by the elite, for the elite” priorities of its creators. It proposed amnesty for the white-collar thieves whose tax evasion has crippled the economy. It increased the general sales tax, a regressive tax with a devastating impact on working families’ ability to purchase life’s necessities, while at the same time cutting consumption taxes for the rich on luxury goods like hybrid cars.

PML-N attempted to justify this blatant “starve the poor to feed the rich” budget as necessary given the dire shape in which the outgoing Pakistan People’s Party had left the economy. Precisely how the economy is supposed to be stabilized by further impoverishing people who do not have money while leaving untapped those who do has been left unexplained. But clearly, that is the policy.

A record new 24 statutory regulatory orders were introduced in one year alone, amounting to nearly PKR 470 billion (including PKR 237 billion already given by the previous government) in public largesse for politically connected business tycoons. Meanwhile, to take just one of the more egregious examples, the government extracts PKR 38 in taxes from the common man for every PKR 100 he can scrape together to load airtime onto his mobile phone .

All in all, the indirect tax burden on the poor has increased by a substantial amount . Meanwhile, the estimated USD 200 billion stashed in Swiss accounts has gone undisturbed, despite PML-N’s mock-strident campaign promises, also proudly trumpeted by Ishaq Dar on the floor of the house. The promised expansion of the tax rolls to include some 3 million rich Pakistanis who have never paid taxes has, also, mysteriously failed to materialize. Meanwhile, despite campaign promises of “development first,” Public Sector Development Programs were slashed more than 35 percent (from PKR 540 to PKR 350 billion).

Federal Board of Revenue figures. http://www.asianewsnet.net/High-taxes-imposed-on-Pakistans-mobile-phone-users-48793.html http://www.huzaimaikram.com/download/Budget-2014/10-Comments.pdf http://www.dawn.com/news/1105356 http://tribune.com.pk/story/687674/move-backfires-fbr-under-scrutiny-for-tax-collection/

1White Paper by PTI - August 2014 White Paper by PTI - August 2014

The net effect of PML-N’s “starve the poor and feed the rich” strategy has been to shatter the base of the economy. The impact has been swift and catastrophic. In just one year (2013-2014), inflation increased from 5.8 percent to 9.2 percent , not only the highest one-year increase in Pakistan since the 2008 global financial crisis – but also the highest in Asia. Combined with PML-N’s punitive taxation policies, the inflation rate drove personal savings rates to their lowest level in 50 years.

At this point, it may be useful to provide some context, to remind the reader of a few basic facts of life in Pakistan and sketch a profile of who, exactly, is paying more in taxes in order that the rich might pay less. Sixty million Pakistanis – one-third of the total population – live below the poverty line of PKR 125 per day and two thirds if the definition is taken as PKR 200 per day. Nearly 80 percent of the population is functionally illiterate. More than three-quarters of the people live in houses smaller than three marlas. Less than 25 percent of the population can afford to buy meat. These are the people who, under PML-N, are paying 100 percent more than they did last year in indirect taxation. These are the people whose tax funds line the pockets of the Sharif brothers’ cronies before being shipped off into numbered accounts in Switzerland. These are the people who are paying double for electricity what they paid last year, but who are still without power for 12 and even 18 hours a day. These are the people who by the hundreds of thousands are losing their jobs as the energy crisis drives companies out of business. And yes, these are the people whose votes were stolen in the May 2013 elections.

The allegations of rigging and vote tampering are serious and credible. PTI has demanded, and renews its demand, that the Supreme Court ensure a legitimate recount of the contested constituencies. Suffice it to say that PTI will not permit this issue to simply go away no matter how much the government drags its feet or tries to change the subject.

The election tampering, however, is the topic of a separate white paper. In Plain Sight focuses exclusively on PML-N’s leadership performance to date, leaving aside the valid question of whether that leadership is legitimate in the first place.

The paper is divided into topical sections, ranging from the finer technical points of fiscal and monetary policy to the Prime Minister’s apparently insatiable taste for luxurious travel, from a sobering accounting of Pakistan’s decline (from an already low starting point) in global competitiveness to the mysterious disappearance of funds allocated for a “youth loan” scheme run by the Prime Minister’s daughter

Almost any single one of the key performance indicators discussed in In Plain Sight would by itself raise doubts about the true nature of the ruling party. Taken together, they paint a damning picture of a government gone rogue, operating outside the law and clearly convinced they can do so without

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics figures. http://www.pkdebate.com/2014/06/13/asad-umar-speech-on-federal-budget-2014-15-in-national-assembly-10th-june-2014/ SDPI (Sustainable Development Policy Institute) figures, compiled with technical assistance from United Nations Development Programme. UNESCO figure for 2012, most recent available as reported December 2013. http://newsweek.net.pk/?p=2663 As reported by Dawn, 29 April 2014 (http://dawn.com/news/1102945) http://www.criterion-quarterly.com/pakistan%E2%80%99s-power-crisis-challenges-and-the-way-forward/

Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014, World Economic Forum (Davos, Switzerland) State Bank of Pakistan figures, through April 2014 http://thefinancialdaily.com/NewsDetail/168194.aspx State Bank of Pakistan figures Pakistan Economic Surveys As reported by Institute of Policy Reforms Published Eurobond advertisements and fund managers’ reports.

consequence. This picture is hard to look at; human beings instinctively avert their gaze from deformity, and moral deformity is the most repulsive of all. But Pakistan cannot afford to look away. Among In Plain Sight’s more sobering findings:

l Between2012-2013and2013-2014(thatistosay,sincePML-Ntookover),PakistanhasdroppednineplacesintheWorldEconomicForum’sGlobalCompetitivenessIndex(from124thto133rdplace).WEFexplicitlycitedwidespreadcorruptionandbadgovernanceasthereasonsforthe9-placedrop.

l ThemarketssaidwiththeirwalletswhattheWEFsaidwiththeirstatistics:foreigndirectinvestmentfellastunning13percentinjustoneyear.

l ThePML-Ngovernmenthasbrokenallrecordsforborrowing.Injustoneyear,domesticdebthasshotupPKR2trillion,or23percent,toatotalofPKR10.8trillion.

l Thedeficitinthecurrentaccount,accordingly,increasedawhopping52percentinFY2013-2014.

l Thepercentageoftotalrevenuesrequiredjusttoservicethepublicdebtclimbedfourfullpercentagepointsinjustoneyear,from44percentattheendofMarch2013to48percentattheendofMarch2014.

l PML-Nshowsnosignsofslowingtheinsanepaceofborrowing.Tothecontrary,between2014-2015,thegovernmentintendstomirePakistaninanadditionalUSD10billionworthofdebtpayabletotheWorldBankandtheAsianDevelopmentBank. Ifpastexperienceisareliableguidetothefuture,mostofthismoneywillendupinSharifcronies’pocketsviatheirclassicunnecessaryandinefficientpublicworksprojects.Itwillbeaquickkillforthem,butitwilltakethepeopleofPakistangenerationstorepaydebtofthismagnitude.

l TofinanceafewdropsinthebottomlessbucketthatisPML-N’slustforcash,thegovernmentissuedaUSD2billionsaleofEurobonds.TheEurobondwasheavilyoversubscribedanditisnowonderwhy:itpaysapremiumrateof7.25percent,wellaboveeventhe(alsooversubscribed)Eurobondrateof5.125percentofferedbythemuchsmallereconomyofSriLanka. Noonehasyetofferedasatisfactory(orany)explanationforwhyPakistanispayingatleast2.1percentmorethanithadtoonthefive-yearbond.(Forthe10-yearEurobond’shandsomerateof8.25percent,noother-countrycomparableisavailable.Butonecanusefullycompareittothe6.18percentofferedin2007,thelasttimePakistanitselfissueda10-yearbond.)Alongwithbeinghugelyandmysteriouslyexpensive,theEurobond’sstructureisrisky.Thegovernmentisgettingpaidnowinrupees,butwillbepayingbackindollarsovertime.Maybetherupeewillstrengthenrelativetothedollaroverthecourseofthenextfivetotenyears.Thenagain,maybeitwon’t.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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l Inflation, asnoted,increasedfrom5.2percent(May2013,whenPML-Ntookoffice)to9.2percent(April2014) ,thebiggestsingle-yearincreasesincethe2008globalfinancialcrisisandtheworstinAsia.

l At6.2percent,theunemploymentrateremainsunchangedfromprioryear ,despitethegovernment’scampaignpromisestoprioritizejobcreation.

l Thereisonesector–thetravelindustry–whereNawazSharifmightplausiblyclaimtobesingle-handedlyincreasingemployment.HeachievedthedubiousdistinctionofbecomingthefirstprimeministerinthehistoryofPakistantomakemoreforeigntripsthantherearemonthsintheyear:14suchjunketsinhisfirst12monthsinoffice.TheyrangedinpricefromamerePKR1.2millionforaone-dayjaunttoKabul,toahighofPKR14.6millionforatrip(alsojustoneday)totheNetherlands.Allinall,theprimeminister’speregrinationshavecostthenationaltreasuryPKR259million.

In classic PML-N fashion, such job creation as there has been has involved the Prime Minister’s own family. Maryam Nawaz, daughter of the premier, was put in charge of a program funded to the tune of PKR 100 billion to direct subsidized loans to Pakistani youth. Along with the embarrassing fact that the program achieved less than 6 percent of it outreach targets, two points stand out. First, PML-N spent more than PKR 140 million on advertisements featuring pictures of the prime minister and his daughter, blatantly expropriating for PML-N’s marketing budget a significant sum of public money intended for social development. Second, almost 80 percent of the loans went to applicants in the Sharif stronghold of Punjab. The Prime Minister Youth Loan scheme has allegedly failed to attract widespread response as despite government claims that hundreds of thousands will benefit from it, only 35,959 applications were received of which over 83 percent were rejected.

l Thelong-awaitedauctionofthe3Gand4Gspectrumlicenseraisedjusthalfofitsprojectedrevenueandinfactbarelyachievedthereservepricesetbytheregulator,exceedingthatminimumthresholdrequirementbybarely2percent.InagiantmarketlikePakistan,wherenearlythree-quartersofthe180millioncitizenshavecellphones,thiswasashockinganddeeplyembarrassingresult.Knowledgeablesourcesinsidethefinanceministryattributedtheauction’sfailuretoanout-of-its-leagueITministrywhichtriedtooverhypeahalf-bakedplantosophisticatedindustryanalystsandmoneymanagers.

Every single one of the dozen points above is serious. Every single one provides compelling evidence of corruption, incompetence or both. But PML-N is not the only one of Pakistan’s political parties to seem

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Pakistan Bureau of Statistics The Nation, Saturday 24 May 2014 (http://www.nation.com.pk/islamabad/24-May-2014/pm-s-foreign-trips-create-history) The News, Friday 28 February 2014 (http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-2-235424-Over-83-percent-applications-for-youth-rejected) Report from Moody’s Investors Services and in The News, Tuesday 15 April 2014 (http://www.thenews.com.pk/article-144648-Pakistans-3G,-4G-

auction-draws-disappointing-bids)

The Nation, Tuesday 6 May 2014 (http://www.nation.com.pk/business/06-May-2014/circular-debt-soars-to-rs300b-once-again) http://ipr.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Review-of-Macro-Economic-Performance-In-the-First-Six-Months-of-2013-14.pdf. By Dr. Hafiz A

Pasha

frequently that it is in over its head, simply not up to the complex job of leading a nation that has 180 million people, serious problems, and nuclear weapons. It is not the only party to engage in shameless nepotism, or to borrow and spend like drunken sailors on shore leave, or to ignore campaign promises, or to apparently fail to grasp the elementary distinction between “mine” and “yours” that most of us successfully master in childhood. PML-N has, admittedly, raised the game to a whole new level in this first year of its third term. For example, the circular debt (about which much more below), which the current government paid off to the tune of nearly PKR 500 billion, had taken five years to reach that level. PML-N managed to pile the circular debt back up to PKR 300 billion in just nine months.

But infuriating as they undoubtedly are, the “dirty dozen” points above are not, sadly, huge departures from business-as-usual among Pakistan’s ruling class. They represent differences of degree, not of kind. Where the people of Pakistan should really hear the alarm bells, where things have taken a genuinely frightening turn towards totalitarianism, concerns PML-N’s increasing tendency to use the machinery of the state to lie to the people, and to intimidate anyone who dares to tell the truth.

Consider, for example, the case of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, or PBS. Its annual Economic Survey of Pakistan for 2013-2014 initially showed GDP growth at 4 percent. This figure was of significant symbolic importance, since GDP growth had hovered frustratingly just below that figure for years (3.7 percent for 2010-2011; 3.8 percent for 2011-2012; 3.7 percent again for 2012-2013). When PBS proclaimed the glad tidings that in PML-N’s first year, GDP had at last cracked the 4 percent barrier for the first time since 2008, the Institute of Policy Reforms, or IPR, took a look at the underlying raw data. The unmistakable conclusion was that PBS had deliberately cooked the results. PBS’s calculation had cherry-picked for exclusion certain data, most notably from the large-scale manufacturing and banking sectors, which would otherwise have been included as a matter of routine. The fact that every one of the exclusions had the effect of pushing the GDP number up strongly suggests that these were not innocent mistakes – as does the fact that to date, PBS has not responded to allegations that they were under political pressure to manipulate the data.

The true GDP figure for 2013-2014 is not 4 percent but 3.5 percent. (And thanks to IPR’s watchdog work, the correct GDP figure is now reflected in official PBS statistics.) Along with obviously being below the 4 percent magic number, the 3.5 percent represents a decrease (of 0.2 percent) from prior year. The story, however, is not a negative variance of a couple of tenths of one percent. The story is the politicization and corruption of even math. The story is the commandeering of numbers-crunchers who work for the people of Pakistan and whose job it is to provide reliable data, and PML-N’s unprecedented attempt to turn them into party propagandists instead.



Or consider the case of Tariq Malik, the wonkish I/T wizard who served as chairman of the National Database and Registration Authority, or NADRA, the agency charged with issuing national identity cards and verifying citizens’ identities. NADRA (an agency which, like PBS, is by its nature nonpartisan and had been operating thusly) had been asked by an election tribunal in late 2013 to verify the thumbprints of voters from a Lahore constituency, NA-118, supposedly carried by PML-N candidate Malik Riaz. NADRA found that the thumbprints of the majority of the voters did not match their official prints on file, and said so. Ultimately, NADRA’s work exposed rigging on five seats of the national and provincial assemblies of Lahore which had not been legitimately won by the ruling party.

Chairman Tariq Malik was summoned by Punjab Chief Minister Shabbaz Sharif to a meeting in Lahore where he was kept waiting until late in the night. He finally was received by Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah who asked Malik for a “compromise” on the fraudulent thumbprint issue, essentially threatening Malik with serious consequences if he refused to declare the PML-N candidate a clean win. When Malik refused to play ball, he was sacked, although an appeal to the Islamabad High Court immediately restored him.

PML-N’s campaign of harassment and intimidation did not end there, however, and indeed still has not. Malik eventually came to fear for his safety and fled Pakistan. In early July, in a show of petty vindictiveness that would be comical were PML-N not so deadly toxic, the government announced its intention to file charges against Malik for his arrest in absentia, essentially on the grounds that Malik (arguably) filled out his passport application incorrectly.

Finally, consider former State Bank Governor Yaseen Anwar and Auditor General Buland Akhtar Rana, two separate but related cases which lead us at last to the meta-issue: Pakistan’s monstrous circular debt. It is important first to understand the pride that the State Bank of Pakistan, one of the nation’s most esteemed institutions, has always engendered. The Economist magazine has consistently rated SBP’s commitment to financial inclusion, and its regulatory framework, among the best in the world.

State Bank’s record of effectiveness speaks for itself. In nearly 70 years of independence, through civil war, military coups, dictatorships, and unrest of every sort, not one single Pakistani bank has ever failed. State Bank has long enjoyed a spotless reputation for transparency and incorruptibility. And then Nawaz Sharif came back to power.

According to Auditor General Rana, under Pakistani law, no payment can be made out of the national treasury without pre-audit by the Controller General of Accounts. An un-secured payment cannot simply be made out of the treasury just on the command of the finance minister. Yet this, according to Rana, is exactly what happened to the payment of nearly PKR 500

Reporting of the “Tuesday Night Massacre” and its aftermath from The Express Tribune, Wednesday 4 December 2013 (http://tribune.com.pk/story/640871/govt-all-thumbs-within-hours-nadra-chief-sacked-then-reinstated/)

The Express Tribune, Saturday 5 July 2014 (http://tribune.com.pk/story/731588/fia-to-arrest-former-nadra-chairman/) See for example The Economist Intelligence Unit report from 2010, when Pakistan moved for the first time into the top five in the world (http://

www.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=global_microscope_2010&page=noads)

The News, Friday 28 March 2014 (http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-2-240755-Circular-debt-payment-illegal-and-unconstitutional-says-auditor-general)

The Nation, Saturday, 1 February 2014 (http://www.nation.com.pk/business/01-Feb-2014/dar-appoints-wathra-sbp-acting-governor) quoting official statement

Pakistan Today, Sunday 27 April 2014. (http://issuu.com/abidoon/docs/e-paper_27th_april__lhr_/3?e=3820687/7623460) & (http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2014/04/27/epaper/27th-april-2014/)

billion to clear the circular debt. The payment of any such funds from the general treasury, let alone such a staggering sum, without an audit is illegal and unconstitutional.

Rana openly speculated that the State Bank of Pakistan went along with such an illegal act only under extreme duress from the PML-N finance minster who had no right to direct SBP to make the payment. Given PML-N’s long record of lies and denials, the people of Pakistan will likely never learn the facts behind the abrupt resignation of State Bank Governor Yaseen Anwar, a man of previously impeccable reputation. It is a safe bet though that the official party line – that Anwar wished to spend more time with his family – is not the whole story.

With the illegal payment to the independent power producers of PKR 480 billion duly disbursed – PKR 64 billion of which was reportedly raided from the Universal Service Fund set aside exclusively for IT scholarships and the development of the IT sector -- Finance Minister Ishaq Dar could focus on his displeasure with Auditor General Rana. Rana had made no bones about the fact that the unaudited payment was unconstitutional, and that he opposed it. And like NADRA chairman Tarik Malik before him, Rana’s exercise in truth-telling has apparently necessitated his political annihilation. Sources close to the matter say that since the government cannot make a show-cause case for Rana’s removal, they intend to prepare a complaint against him to the Supreme Judicial Council to achieve the same result.

Things were quite bad enough during PML-N’s first two terms when its corruption, serious even then, was largely confined to its own activities, when it could at least tolerate the existence of a few honest men. But like a virulent super-bug that has mutated to resist antibiotics, PML-N has come roaring back in much more lethal form, a toxin that destroys whatever it touches. PML-N’s corruption has compromised, in just one short year, some of Pakistan’s most important and respected institutions. PML-N is plainly prepared to tolerate no interference of any kind in its bid for absolute power, including – especially – the telling of the truth. And equally plainly, they no longer feel the need even to pretend to respect the rule of law.

In Plain SightowesaperversedebtofgratitudetoPML-N’sbrazenness.Butfortheparty’sobviousindifferencetotheopinionofthecitizens–whoafterall,didnotactuallyelectPML-Ninthefirstplace–itmighthavebeenmuchmoredifficulttouncoverthetruthoftheirfirstyearbackinpower.Asitis,thepaperalsoowesthankstothemanyPakistanijournalistswhohavedoneagreatdealofhardworktoferretoutthetruthandwhohavebeenwillingtocallaspadeaspade.AfurtherdebtofgratitudeisowedtotheworkofindependentthinktanksbothinPakistanandabroad--andaboveall,tothepeopleofPakistanwhoknowthattheydeservebetterandwhostubbornlyrefusetoabandonthevisionofadecentsociety.



Figure 1 Pakistan GDP Growth Rate by Year (2005-2014) 09

Figure 2 Pakistan GDP Growth Rate Compared to Neighboring Countries (2009-2014) 10

Figure 3 Global Competitiveness Index (2013-2014) 11

Figure 4 Global Competitiveness Ranking (148 countries) 11

Figure 5 Key Constraints on Business Climate 12

Figure 6 Foreign Direct Investment 13

Figure 7 Inflation Rate by Month (April 2013-April 2014( 14

Figure 8 Tax-to-GDP Ratio 2005-2014 15

Figure 9 Tax-to-GDP Rate Compared to Other Countries (FY 2012-2013) 16

Figure 10 Unemployment Rate 2008-2014 17

Figure 11 Trade Balance (2006-2014) 18

Figure 12 Current Account Deficit (2012-2014) 19

Figure 13 Public Debt (Absolute and as % of GDP) (2008-2014) 20

Figure 14 Eurobond Comparative Perspective (2007 vs 2014) 22

Figure 15 Distribution by Province of “Youth Loan” Application Approvals 31

Figure 16 Lies-at-a-Glance: A Handy Guide to PML-N Rhetoric vs Reality 37

TABLE OF FIGURESl Government claims of GDP growth rate being 4.1% was embarrassingly proven untrue as both IMF and

Asian Development Bank rejected these figures. In fact the government in its letter of intent to IMF had quoted 3.3% which they later denied as being a typo error. According to the Institute of Policy Reforms (IPR), an independent think tank, the GDP growth rate for 2013-14 stood at 3.5 percent.

l IPR has accused the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) of inflating the growth rate for the outgoing fiscal year to suit its purposes, casting doubts over the credibility of the national statistics agency again. “The claim that economic growth exceeded 4 percent after a gap of six years is factually incorrect,” IPR said in its report.

l While compiling the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2013-14, PBS included large scale manufacturing (LSM) growth during the first eight months of the fiscal even though it had figures for the first nine months. According to IPR, LSM growth fell down to 2.7 percent in March. Consequently, the nine-month LSM growth rate for the outgoing year was 4.3 percent, as opposed to the eight-month growth rate of 5.3 percent. The institute also accused the government of overstating LSM growth by 1 percent. “This has a consequential effect on the growth rate of the wholesale and retail trade sector. It reduces the GDP growth rate by 0.2 percentage points,” the IPR report said. Similarly, the 11.3 percent growth rate for the construction sector appears too high, given the consequences of the key input, cement, which has increased by only 4.2 percent. IPR observed this will further shave off 0.2 percent off the growth rate. Highlighting another flaw, IPR said 88 percent of the value-added banking and insurance sector is generated by commercial banks. “Banks have shown a decline in profitability in real terms of over 15 percent. Therefore, the growth rate of this sector is unlikely to be 5.2 percent, as announced in the Economic Survey. It (banking and insurance growth) is negative,” the report stated. IPR estimated this will further reduce overall growth rate by at least 0.2 percent. Till date PBS failed to reply the allegation of manipulation.

l It is worth mentioning here that Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) wrongly reported GDP Growth Rate 4.4 percent for FY 2011-12 but after two years it has been corrected it to 3.8 percent.

THE ECONOMIC DETERIORATIONGDP Growth

FIGURE 1

Source:Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS)Institute of Policy Reforms (IPR)


FIGURE 2

FIGURE 3

FIGURE 4

WORST REGRIONAL PERFORMANCE

Unfortunately, Pakistan’s performance is also very poor in comparison to its neighboring countries.

THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT 2013-14 by World Economic Forum

l Dropping further 9 position from 2012-13, Pakistan featured 133rd i.e. in the bottom 20 of the 148 economies around the world in The Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014, as announced by the World Economic Forum. As per the Global Competitiveness Report (GCR) 2013-14, Pakistan does not have a durable vision of competitiveness.

l The reasons due to which Pakistan has ranked 133rd among 148 countries are widespread corruption and bad governance.

Global Competitiveness Index 2013-14 Rankings Country Rank/148 in 2013-14 Rank/144 in 2012-13 Rank/144 in 2011-12

Indonesia 38 50 46Mexico 55 53 58India 60 59 56Rwanda 66 63 70Srilanka 65 68 52Zambia 93 102 113Ghana 114 103 114Kenya 96 106 102Cameroon 115 112 116Nigeria 120 115 127Bangladesh 110 118 108Ethiopia 127 121 106Pakistan 133 124 118 Source:TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2013-14byWorldEconomicForum


FIGURE 5

CORRUPTION AND BUREAUCRACYHindering Business

According to the Global Competitiveness Report 2013-14, World Economic Forum, most problematic factors for doing business in

Pakistan is not Law & Order but corruption and Bureaucracy.

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI)

l According to State Bank of Pakistan, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reduced from USD 5,276.6 million (that is, USD 5.3 billion, rounded) in 2007-08 to USD 862.3 million in 2012-13. It declined further under PML-N Gov in FY 2013-14 to USD 750.9 million, the lowest in last 10 years.

FIGURE 6

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan (million US dollar)

2006-07 4873.2

2007-08 5276.6

2008-09 3719.9

2009-10 2150.8

2010-11 1573.6

2011-12 820.6

2012-13 1456.5

2013-14 750.9*Source:StateBankofPakistan*TillApril2014.


INFLATION RATEHighest in one year

l PML-N Federal Government failed to keep inflation rate under control and it broke all records nationally and in Asia as well.

l In May 2013, inflation rate was 5.2 percent but in one year it climbed to 9.2 percent.

l Despite 1 percent GST increase in previous budget i.e. from16 percent to 17 percent, which increased the burden of indirect taxes on low income class, Tax-to-GDP ratio has failed to increase due to huge tax exemptions to the rich.

l The Government which promised that they will finish the SRO culture, issued 24 SROs in FY 2013-14 which provided exemption of PKR 474 billion to privileged and elite class. 24 new 239 to 477 all sros.

l Tremendously increased taxes-

l Floor admittedly 200 billion

l Tax payments not commensurated with life style

l Poverty 23rd below 2 USD

l Ittefaq foundaries?

FIGURE 7

FIGURE 8

Inflation Rate (CPI) Year-on-Year basis

Period CPI

Apr 2013 5.8

May 2013 5.2

Jun 2013 6.0

July 2013 8.3

Aug 2013 8.5

Sep 2013 7.4

Oct 2013 9.1

Nov 2013 10.9

Dec 2013 9.2

Jan 2014 7.9

Feb 2014 7.9

Mar 2014 8.5

Apr 2014 9.2Source:PakistanBureauofStatistics.

Tax-to-GDP Ratio

Year Tax Rev as % of GDP (BE) Tax Rev as % of GDP (Actual)

2005-06 Not Available 9.4


2007-08 10.3 9.5

2008-09 9.5 8.8


2010-11 9.2 8.5

2011-12 9.5 9.4

2012-13 10.1 8.7

2013-14 9.5 8.9*Source:FederalBoardofRevenue

BE:BudgetEstimate

*TheaveragedifferencebetweenTaxRevas%ofGDP(BE)andTaxRevas%ofGDP(Actual),reportedbyFederalBoardofRevenue,is0.65forlast06Years;therefore,theTaxRevas%ofGDP(Actual)for2013-14assumed8.9%asFBRyettoprovideit.

TAX REVENUEHighest taxes, lowest revenue

ELECTRICITY RATE AND LOADSHEDDING HIKE l In FY 2013-14, Electricity Tariff increased by 78 percent which cost PKR 3.5 billion in bills, yet the

loading made history.

l The Federal Government soon after coming in power paid PKR 480 billion to IPPs in the name of circular debt without any pre audit breaking all rules and regulations and transparency with the result that just after few months, circular debt has climbed back to over PKR 300 billion.


TAX REVENUE COMPARISONwith other Countries

l To have a picture where Pakistan is standing in terms of Tax collection, here is a comparison chart for Tax Rev as % of GDP for FY 2012-13 with other countries.

FIGURE 9

Tax-to-GDP ratio of Pakistan is even below Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Nepal and Colombia.

l Terrible governance, energy crisis and decline of Foreign Investment has adversely affected the employment rate in Pakistan.

l According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate is continuously increasing from 5.5 percent in 2008-09 to 6.2 percent in 2013-14, which means that in 2013-14 more than 3.50 million of labor force remained unemployed as compared to 2.93 million in 2008-09. The current Government also failed to create job opportunities in FY 2013-14.

FIGURE 10

Unemployment Rate (%)

2008-09 5.5

2009-10 5.6

2010-11 6.0

2012-13 6.2

2013-14 6.2Source:PakistanBureauofStatistics

UNEMPLOYMENT RATEStill No Jobs


TRADE BALANCEAdverse and getting Worse

l According to the statistics published by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), there is enormous increase in trade deficit in the last few years and this trend continues under current Federal Government in FY 2013-14. Contrary to tall claims, the current government failed to improve trade Balance and hence the widening trade deficit.

FIGURE 11 FIGURE 12

Trade BalanceValue in Million USD

Period (July-April) Exports Imports

2006-07 13,903 22,020

2007-08 15,991 28,586

2008-09 15,981 26,775

2009-10 16,155 25,249

2010-11 20,526 28,811

2011-12 20,474 33,157

2012-13 20,501 33,042

2013-14 21,038 34,297Source:StateBankofPakistan

Current Account Deficit Value in Million USD

Period (July-April) Deficit

2012-13 1418

2013-14 2162Source:StateBankofPakistan

The Government of Pakistan has completely failed to improve trade balance which reached more than USD 13.2 billion in July 2013 - April 2014.

l The current account balance remained under pressure due to the trade deficit. Current account deficit reached more than USD 2.1 billion during July-April 2013-14 as compared to USD 1.4 billion in the corresponding period last year. This represents a 52 percent increase year over year.

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITIncreasing more and more


PUBLIC DEBT AND LOANTwo generations Indebted for life

l The higher fiscal deficit this year has increased public debt and consequently, the government must allocate more resources toward public debt servicing. More than PKR 1.1 billion, or around 48 percent of total revenues, have been consumed in debt servicing this year till end March as compared to 44 percent for the same period last year. This ratio should be below 30 percent to allow the government to allocate more resources toward social and poverty related expenditures.

l Public Debt as Percent to GDP stood at 61.2 percent of GDP by end March 2014 as compare with 59.5 percent of GDP for the same period last year which is also against the constitution that sets a limit of 60%.

l In the last 5 Years, the previous and current federal government accumulated debts that all previous governments could not accumulate in six decades.

More Loans - Begging Bowl turns into Begging Oceanl In 2014-15, the Federal Government will receive the highest-ever foreign loans of over USD 10 billion

from World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which will further increase public debt and will hurt generations.

l The government has signed/agreed loan agreements worth of USD 52 billion from different sources including USD 32 billion from China, USD 11 billion from World Bank, USD 6.64 billion from IMF and USD 2 billion from Eurobonds”, said Dr Hafiz Pasha, former Finance and Minister and Managing Director of Institute of Policy Reforms (IPR).

FIGURE 13A

FIGURE 13B

Public Debt Period (July-End March) Public Debt in PKR Trillion Public Debt as % of GDP

2008-09 7.268 55.5

2009-10 8.160 55.6

2010-11 10.020 55.5

2011-12 12.025 58.2

2012-13 13.626 59.5

2013-14 15.534 61.2Source:PakistanEconomicSurveys


EUROBOND MYTH

FIGURE 14

Euro Bond Comparative Perspective Pakistan Eurobond Pakistan Eurobond Turkey Eurobond Srilanka Eurobond issued in 2007 issued in 2014 issued in 2014 issued in 2014

5 Year Bond 5.8% 7.25% 4.25% 5.125%

10 Year Bond 6.18% 8.25% __ __

Subscription 4 times 8 times

Success Oversubscribed OversubscribedSource:EurobondAdvertisementandFundManagers

A long term liability for Short term Solution; Pakistan raises USD 2 billion from Eurobonds.

Let us summarize the above table in a bullet format.1. It is an extremely expensive option. The previous Eurobond, which was issued in 2007, was at

a much cheaper rate than the 2014 one under the current regime. Interestingly, according to informed sources, the high mark-up rate also suggests that someone within the ministry may have “miscalculated” many “other” financial factors and “trapped” the Pakistani government into a high rated long term loan commitment.

2. The interest rate for a much smaller economy, Sri Lanka, is far cheaper. Once again the reason for why our financial managers “locked” the government into such an expensive ordeal is raising questions.

3. The reason why Pakistan’s Eurobond was oversubscribed was mainly due to the fact that it was extremely lucrative for the bondholder (and correspondingly extremely unfavorably expensive for Pakistan). Simply when Sri Lanka is offering lower rate of five percent, why did Pakistan offer seven percent, which makes it 25 percent more expensive.

4. The Sri Lankan bond was oversubscribed too. That means if we had decreased our interest rate perhaps we would not have had to pay installments at such high rates.

5. International loans are more expensive than domestic loans. The government is increasing international loans and hence the loan portfolio is tilted towards expensive sources of funds. The implications will be felt in later years.

6. Even if the dollar rate is lower at present, however it is worth mentioning that Eurobonds will eventually be paid off in dollars and that too at the then prevailing rate. So the government earns in rupees but pays the loans in dollars and that too at the then prevailing rate. It is anyone’s guess what would be the dollar rate 7-10 years down the road.

So, in a nutshell, the Eurobond was taken to partly payoff the previous debts and IMF loans. The bond was overly subscribed because it was giving a high rate of return that public will have to pay off through additional taxes. Government entered into a long-term commitment for shorter term relief, which will not equate well in the coming future. So was it such a big success after all or not? (Excerpt from Pakistan’s Eurobond success: when will we hear the truth by Hassan Yousf Shah)


CORRUPTION AND MISMANAGEMENT

Energy Sector – Highest Corruption Scandal(RajaRentalPKR200billionVsCircularDebtPKR480billion)

Circular debt payment ‘illegal and unconstitutional,’ says Auditor General

l “The government has paid more than PKR 500 billion to clear the circular debt. The payment of billions from consolidated funds without pre-audit is illegal and unconstitutional as no un-secured payment could be made just on the desire of finance ministry,” AG Buland Akhtar Rana told the PAC meeting chaired by Syed Khursheed Shah.

l He said under the law no payment could be made from the national exchequer without pre-audit of Controller General Accounts and it was not the finance ministry’s task to directly order the State Bank of Pakistan for the payment.

l He was of the opinion that the State Bank of Pakistan acted illegally only on the directive of the finance ministry. “Perhaps the State Bank governor resigned over the issue or there might be some pressure on him,” he observed.

Government set to remove defiant Auditor General

l Finance Minister Senator Ishaq Dar was “annoyed” with Rana who had opposed the direct release of PKR 480 billion to independent power producers (IPPs) to clear the circular debt through State Bank of Pakistan, without following required constitutional pre-audit checks which was a gross misconduct and was in violation of relevant laws.

l Out of the total amount of PKR 480 billion, PKR 64 billion was reportedly taken out from Universal Service Fund (USF) which can never be drawn and used under the law for another head other than scholarships for students of Information Technology sector or for the growth and development of the IT sector.

l The sources said that since the government had failed to build a case against the AGP, “who is stubborn and is adamant not to follow illegal orders of the government”, the government now has decided to prepare a reference against him to be sent to the Supreme Judicial Council for his removal.

Government failed to share any Audit Report of Circular Debt Payment

l Despite several request by Parliamentarians and Public Accounts Committee, Government Failed to share any audit report either by AG or third party which cementing doubts of corruption.

The News, Friday March 28 2014 (http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-2-240755-Circular-debt-payment-illegal-and-unconstitutional-says-auditor-general)

Pakistan Today, Sunday April 27 2014 (http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2014/04/27/national/govt-set-to-remove-defiant-auditor-general/)

The Naion, Tuesday May 06 2014 (http://www.nation.com.pk/business/06-May-2014/circular-debt-soars-to-rs300b-once-again) Dawn, Tuesday Sep 10 2013 (http://www.dawn.com/news/1041790) Dawn, Tuesday April 29 2014 (http://www.dawn.com/news/1102945)

PKR 300 billion Circular debt Re-emerge

l The monster of circular debt, the root cause of current load shedding, is rising its head again, soaring up to over PKR 300 billion, all due to the mal-administration and complete failure of the government to recover outstanding power dues.

l “Level of circular debt has gone beyond PKR 300 billion, which is increasing with the passage of every single day mainly because of mis-governance on the part of incumbent government”, said Abdullah Yousuf Chairman Advisory Council of Independent Power Producers (IPPs).

l It is worth mentioning here that the amount of PKR 500 billion circular debt which the government paid last year, had piled in five years whereas the current PKR 300 billion rose in just nine months.

Tariff Increase in 2013-14

l In FY 2013-14, Electricity Tariff increased by 78 percent which cost PKR 3.5 billion to public; However energy crises keeps on increasing day by day.

Line Losses and Shortfall

l The current government failed to reduce transmission and distribution losses. For July 2013, the power sector’s billing collection dropped to 65.7 percent and its line losses increased by 3.6 percent, increasing sectoral losses by PKR 40 billion in July alone.

l Line losses increased in the same month by 3.6 percent. According to a system losses statement of Pepco, the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) suffered 27.8 percent loss in July, against 26.4 percent in the corresponding month previous year — an increase of 1.4 percent.

l Similarly, the distribution (Discos system) losses also rose by two percent — from 23.50 percent in July 2012 to 25.70 percent in July this year. The 11KV system of distribution reported a loss of 2.2 percent.

l The current government, contrary to the claims, had failed to reduce electricity shortfall and load shedding.

l In April 2014, with most parts of the country sizzling at up to 45 degree Celsius, the power situation, as expected, worsened. Electricity shortfall crossed 6,000 MW, with urban areas facing 12 and rural areas up to 18 hours of load shedding.


Nandipur Power Project Corruption-Part 1

Nandipur Power Project Corruption-Part 2

Ex-MD Pepco exposes PKR 15 billion Nandipur Project Scam

l In a letter sent to the chief justice of Pakistan Ex-MS Pepco Munawwar Baseer stated that the PML-N government had revived the 425 MW project with a monumental increase in the cost revised upwards to USD 570 million from USD 329 million.

l “The revised PC-1 of the Nandipur power project is a well thought out, well conceived and white collar scam to cheat the public exchequer of USD 149 million, the benefit of which will go to a select private sector party,” the former Pepco executive claims

l The reality is that all equipment, machinery is at the site or the port and paid for. The only increase demanded by the Dongfong Electric Corporation (DEC) is USD 40 million. And there could be an increase in extended insurance for 2-3 years, plus IDC. This could add up to say another USD 25 million at the most, bringing the cost to USD 425 million plus USD 25 million which equals USD 450 million, certainly not USD 574 million. This means that the hefty amount of USD 124 million is still unjustified and unaccounted for.

l How, in just 2-3 Years, cost of the project increased 73 percent? Unacceptable by any project management standards.

The bad Chinese connection between Nandipur scam and railways scandal

l The PKR 15 billion Nandipur scam of the present government has a direct connection to a Chinese company which was blacklisted by current federal government in another shady deal, that of the railway engines.

l The name of Dongfang Electric International Corporation involved in Nandipur Power Project is the blacklisted company. Along putting the company, Dongfang Electric International Corporation, in a blacklist, the Ministry of Railway also had terminated its contract of USD 104 million.

l The blacklisting of this Chinese company in the 75 railway engines case has actually become one of the most disputed issues between Pakistan and China and the recent visit of PM Nawaz Sharif also had to face some Chinese concerns on this issue. Well placed sources say the relations with the Chinese have actually come to a point where the Nawaz Sharif Government will have to decide the Dongfang case first to show that the new government can handle wily bureaucrats, something the Chinese seriously complained about during the Nawaz visit.

l The company challenged its blacklisting in the Lahore High Court but its counsel admitted that Dongfang had participated in major infrastructure projects, including the Ghazi-Barotha Hydropower Project, Nandipur Power Project, Chichoki-Mallian Power Project, and Pak-China Rail Link Pre-Feasibility.

l Later the Lahore High Court declined the request by the company to withdraw a case seeking the court’s intervention for setting aside the cancellation of the contract for supply of 75 locomotives.

LOAD SHEDDING BREAKS RECORDSAS GOVERNMENT LIES THROUGH EXPENSIVE MEDIA ADSContrary to official claims, the sectoral data shows that power situation worsened over the past one year as the power generation is now stuck at exactly where it was a year ago (around 14,500MW), but the demand increased by around 800MW, widening the gap between demand and supply which has caused an increase in load shedding.

The government prematurely inaugurated the Nandipur plant and launched a media campaign that 425MW plant has been added to the system. Within days, the plant went offline because its basics were not put in place. It was originally designed for furnace oil, but was being run on diesel. Managers at the plant have refused to run it permanently on diesel. It will produce energy at PKR 40 per unit.

Similarly, the 747MW Guddu power went offline because its contractor has refused to risk premature running of the plant. Same was the situation at 410MW Uch-I which still does not have transmission line to distribute power although the government’s media campaign led everyone to believe that it was in the system.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1117810/pepco-data-shows-no-increase-in-power-generation-in-a-year

LARGEST CORRUPTION SCANDAL IN THE HISTORY OF ENERGY SECTOR

The News, Thursday July 11 2013(http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-24040-Ex-MD-Pepco-exposes-Rs15-billion-Nandipur-project-scam) The News, Monday July 22 2014 (http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-2-191492-The-bad-Chinese-connection-between-Nandipur-scam-and-railways-scandal)


PML-N BACK TO ‘NOTORIOUS’ RPPs

Dissolve all rental power projects, says SC

l On March 30 2012, against the petition of Khawaja Asif, the Supreme Court (SC) said that all the rental power projects should be dissolved.

l The Supreme Court, in its verdict, directed NAB to recover USD 223.58 million wasted on the establishment of RPPs. However, NAB is yet to recover PKR 20 billion from the powerful RPP owners.

PML-N to bring ‘Notorious’ RPPs back on line

l In a major policy shift, the PML-N government has decided to count on rental power plants (RPPs) for fast track power generation and bring three RPPs – whose contracts were cancelled by the Supreme Court – on the national grid. The decision was taken by the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet.

l The panel ordered companies which were awarded RPP contracts previously to apply for new generation licenses and seek new tariff rates from National Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra), they said. These RPPs are Gulf power plant, Reshma power plant and Techno power plant.

l According to the officials, the decision has been taken to minimize the gap between demand and supply in the coming summer season – a reason the Pakistan Peoples Party government also used to justify the expensive RPPs. While in opposition, the PML-N had criticized the RPP policy of the PPP government.

l A common feature shared by these power plants is their heavy fuel requirement due to the use of old and obsolete machinery, an energy sector expert said. The cost will be borne by consumers under the existing power policy that ensures minimum 17 percent rate of return as entire input cost is passed on to them, he added.

l In what appears to be an attempt to deflect criticism, the government has rebranded these RPPs as ‘short-term independent power producers’.

The Express Tribune, Friday March 30 2012 (http://tribune.com.pk/story/357358/verdict-out-dissolve-all-rental-power-projects-says-sc/) Daily Times, Monday March 24 2014 (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/islamabad/24-Mar-2014/despite-court-orders-nab-yet-to-recover-

billions-in-rpps-case) The Express Tribune, Friday March 28 2014 (http://tribune.com.pk/story/688277/policy-shift-ruling-party-to-bring-rpps-back-on-line/)

PRIVATIZATION LOOT SALE STARTSUBL shares undersold

The “FIRE SALE” privatization of 20 % govt owned UBL shares yielded USD 387 million. The GOP sold it for PKR 158 per share ( 7 % below the market price of PKR 170 at the time) in a private placement with 8

blocks of selected large investors. The transaction was completed on 20 June 2014. The GOP completely squeezed out the small Pakistani investor and restricted the sale mostly to their near and dear as per

market rumours . An open auction system which is normally followed in such deals would have yielded substantially more to the GOP.

Just before Eid (July 24 th) the price per share of UBL (on the KSE) closed at PKR 195/ share. This means a cool 23 % or USD 89 million tax

free paper gain to the unidentified buyers. No wonder it was oversubscribed. They sold it for a song ! Rarely has a newly privatized stock gained so handsomely in such a short time.

Ishaq Dar thumped his chest and congratulated himself, the Privatization Commission and the N govt. But the people of Pakistan

would have made much more than the USD 387 million had the sale been done openly and transparently.

Reference-21 June article by Shahid Kardar and Nadeem ul Haque in the Express Tribunewww.primeinstitute.org/blog/ubl-divestment-right-way-to-go


PRIME MINISTER FOREIGN TOURSAll on Taxpayers money

PM’s Foreign Tours Create History

l Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has emerged as the first ever premier in Pakistan’s history to have made maximum foreign trips in a year costing PKR 259 million to the national exchequer.

l Official documents available with The Nation revealed that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif made 14 official trips in the last 12 months and this makes him the first premier to visit 14 different countries in a short time span.

l According to details, every tour of the premier cost the national exchequer around PKR 20 million, while his trip to the United Nations along with his entourage from September 23 to September 29, 2013 was the most expensive one, costing the national exchequer over PKR 80 million. The cost of Prime Minister Sharif’s first trip to neighboring China from July 3-7 last year was PKR 26 million followed by his five-day official trip to the United Kingdom that cost PKR 25 million.

l With most of his foreign journeys proved much expensive, the prime minister’s Kabul visit was relatively cheap costing PKR 1.2 million where he stayed only for one day. However, his one-day voyage to Netherlands proved much expensive and PKR 14.6 million were spent on it. The PM went there to attend the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit.

l Likewise the two trips of PM Sharif to Turkey cost the national exchequer PKR 9.6 million, while single trips to Iran, Thailand, Sri Lanka and Netherlands put burden of PKR 4.8 million, PKR 9.7 million, PKR 10.2 million and PKR 14.6 million respectively on the exchequer.

l His latest trip for 9 days for Umra with family has been declared as self financed but going in a commercial plane that was almost empty has raised questions, alongwith it being at a time the country is going through its worse crisis.

The Naion, Saturday May 24 2014 (http://www.nation.com.pk/islamabad/24-May-2014/pm-s-foreign-trips-create-history) The News, Friday Feb 28 2014 (http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-2-235424-Over-83-percent-applications-for-youth-loans-rejected)

PM Youth Loan Scheme failed to fulfill its purpose

l The Prime Minister Youth Loan scheme has allegedly failed to attract widespread response as despite government claims that hundreds of thousands will benefit from it. Only 35,959 applications were received in the first offer, and over 83 percent were rejected (i.e., fewer than 6000 approved).

l The government rolled out the PKR 100 billion scheme as part of the Prime Minister’s Youth Development Programme. Under the scheme, 100,000 loans will be given out at a subsidized interest rate of eight percent.

l Instead of the projected 100,000 Youth, only 5,290 ultimately benefited. And instead of the targeted PKR 100 billion disbursement, the program will disburse barely a tenth of that, even assuming that each applicant receives the maximum allowable loan size of PKR 2 million.

l Following data of beneficiary of PM Youth Loan scheme. Observe the lopsided distribution in the PML-N stronghold of Punjab.

Who is responsible for failure?

l The appointment of head of Youth Program i.e. Ms. Maryam Nawaz, daughter of PM, raised eyebrows and attracted criticism as being the worst example of nepotism set by PM. As head of the program, Ms. Maryam Nawaz is responsible for the failure as she has no prior qualification and experience in this area.

l As per Budget Document, PKR 140 million spent on advertisement with pictures of PM and his daughter Ms. Maryam Nawaz but still the scheme failed badly.

FIGURE 15

PM YOUTH LOAN SCHEMEA Billion Dollar Gift to the Daughter

Province/Region Application Approved

Islamabad 105

Punjab 4085

KPK 675

Sindh 342

Balochistan 76

GB 7


3G/4G SPECTRUM LICENSE AUCTION

Pakistan’s 3G, 4G auction draws disappointing bids

l A dismal response in this week’s auction for next-generation cellphone spectrum licenses means cash-strapped Pakistan will struggle to fund its budget this year, finance and IT ministry officials and telecom industry executives told Reuters.

l First there was the scandal of the husband of minister of IT Anoushey Rehman being suddenly appointed in a very important post in a major telecom and then the auction raised only USD 1.1 billion against the government estimated USD 2 billion. There are about 132 million mobile phones in use in Pakistan, a country of 180 million people, according to the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority.

l “The finance minister (Ishaq Dar) is very angry, so much so that he wants to call off the auction if we are so embarrassingly off target,” said an official on his team, who declined to be identified as he is not authorized to speak officially on the matter.

l This has happened because of an over enthusiastic IT ministry which oversold an undercooked plan to its fiscal managers. It looks like heads may roll on this one.

3G, 4G spectrum auction well below expectation: Moody’s

• Moody’s Investors Service says that the outcome of the 3G and 4G spectrum auctions was well below expectations.

• In addition, it was only 2 percent above the base price set by the regulator — the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA),” says Yoshio Takahashi, a Moody’s Assistant Vice President and Analyst.

Govt violating SC verdict in public sector appointments

l Violating a Supreme Court judgment that a leading member of its own government, Khawaja Asif, had sought during the caretaker administration, the PML-N government has dismissed and appointed heads of public sector organizations without following the laid-down appointment guidelines.

l Many appointments were made in the last six months without advertising the posts and following the process laid down for the appointment of heads of public sector organizations in the Khawaja Asif case.

l In its June 12 order, the Supreme Court directed: “No public appointment must take place without first being recommended by the Commission” and required from the government to constitute the Commission to be headed by Chairman NAB or Federal Ombudsman or a member of civil society having exceptional ability and integrity and include two other competent and independent members of impeccable integrity having fixed tenure of four years.

l According to the SC decision, the commission would discharge mainly the following functions: (i) regulate public appointments processes; (ii) implement a Code of Practice that sets out the principles and core processes for fair and transparent merit-based selections; (iii) chair the selection panels for appointing heads of public/statutory bodies and chairs and members of their boards, where necessary; (iv) appoint Public Appointments Assessors to chair the selection panels for appointing heads of public/statutory bodies and chairs and members of their boards, where appropriate; (v) report publicly on a public/statutory body’s compliance with the Code of Practice, including examples of poor and good performance, and best practice; (vi) investigate complaints about unfair appointment process; (vii) monitor compliance with the Code of Practice; (viii) ensure regular audit of appointments processes within his remit; (ix) issue an annual report giving detailed information about appointments processes, complaints handled, and highlights of the main issues which have arisen during the previous year. The annual report for the previous calendar year should be laid before the Parliament by 31st March; (x) take any other measures deemed necessary for ensuring that processes for public sector appointments that fall in his remit are conducted honestly, justly, fairly and in accordance with law, and that corrupt practices are fully guarded against.

One year gone, 80 percent SEO and companies are being run on adhoc basis

l The government has failed to fulfill its promise of promoting good governance as despite one year in power more than 80 percent of the state-run enterprises and companies are being run on ad hoc basis through acting heads, due to which the performance of these institutions has declined.

l The PML-N government promised that it would promote good governance and appoint all the heads of state-run enterprises transparently through a commission constituted on the directives of the Supreme Court. However gradually the government made the commission dysfunctional which is currently disbanded as one of its members has resigned.

The News, Tuesday April 15 2014 (http://www.thenews.com.pk/article-144648-Pakistans-3G,-4G-auction-draws-disappointing-bids)

PML-N SYSTEMATIC DESTRUCTION OF STATE OWN ENTERPRISES


l The 28 institutions and departments being run by the acting heads include Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco), National Power Construction Company, National Transmission and Dispatch Company, Chief Executive Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP), National Insurance Company Limited (NICL), Chairman National Fertilizer Corporation (NFC), Pakistan State Oil (PSO), Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL) and Sui Southern Limited (SSGPL), Pakistan Mineral Development Company (Pvt.) Limited (PMDC).

Powers of Commission to appoint Heads of SOE cut drastically

l The mandate of the three-member commission headed by Federal Tax Ombudsman Chaudhry Rauf, formed for selection of Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) of state-owned enterprises has been drastically whittled down as appointment of heads of nearly 30 government enterprises has been taken out of its purview.

l “The government has told the commission not to make recommendations for nomination of chiefs of 30 organizations” the commission Chairman, Chaudhry Rauf, told The News.

l The government move is in conflict with the court ruling, which said no public appointment must take place without first being recommended by the commission.

Commission tasked with appointing State Own Enterprises Heads ‘made’ dysfunctional

l The commission constituted by the government for the appointment of heads of State Own Enterprises (SOEs) is dysfunctional for past many months, resulting in ad-hocism at the top level.

l Rauf Chaudhary, one of the main members of the commission who is also the Federal Tax Ombudsman, told The Nation that because of the resignation of one of three members of the commission, it has become dysfunctional.

l A three-member commission was constituted by incumbent government to appoint heads of public sector enterprises on merit but the commission itself has not been able to get one of its members appointed. A summary for appointment of new member who would replace Ijaz Nabi, the member who resigned from the commission, is pending at the Prime Minister’s secretariat for past many months. Despite various reminders the government has ignored the letters sent for the appointment of a member of the commission.

Appointment of Chairman PCB

l “You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours” is PML-N principle of appointment and the same follows for the appointment of Najam Sethi as PCB Chairman.

l The constitution and the musical chairs between Najam Sethi and Zaka Ashraf has exposed the PMLN election nexus.

l The precedent set by PML-N of rewarding the people in Caretaker setup is disastrous and scandalous. It is apparent that Mr. Sethi was rewarded for his support to PML-N is General Election 2013.

Appointment of Arsalan Iftikhar as VC Balochistan BOI-Rewarding the Corrupt

l Arsalan Iftikhar is a medical doctor and he was employed in the Health department of Balochistan. Allegedly, upon pressure from his father, government authorities in 2005 first send him to Federal Investigation Agency on deputation. After that he was inducted in Police Service of Pakistan bypassing Federal Public Service commission. The vibrant lawyer’s movement led to restoration of Iftikhar Chaudhry as chief justice and the case of Arsalan Iftikhar was forgotten.

l After a hiatus of five years, Arsalan Iftikhar was again a part of controversy along with Malik Riaz in 2012. Again it was alleged that Arsalan Iftikhar had received bribe from Malik Riaz to influence his father to give favorable judgments for Malik Riaz. Surprisingly, one fine day, it was announced that he has been appointed as Vice Chairman of board of Investment of the resource rich but backward province, Balochistan.

l This appointment is also a typical example of PML-N principle of appointment “You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours”. It is worth mentioning here that Suddle (Judicial) Commission in its report mentions the dubious sources of Arsalan Iftikhar wealth, established Tax evasions and recommends that he should not be appointed on any important position.

l It is a reward for Former Chief Justice Iftkhar Chaudhry, who allegedly supported election rigging through Returning Officers (ROs). PML-N influenced CM Balochistan for this appointment on Billion Dollars Reko Diq gold and copper mines projects.

Removal of Chairman NADRA

l In a move that raised many an eyebrows, NADRA chairman Tariq Malik was sacked on Tuesday ‘midnight’ and Brig (retd) Zahid Hussain, NADRA’s Sindh director general, was given charge. However, within a few hours, Islamabad High Court (IHC) restored Tariq Malik.

l A cold war had broken out between the ruling party and NADRA chief after NADRA exposed the rigging scandal on five seats of the national and provincial assemblies of Lahore, won by the ruling party. Nadra had declared that thumb impressions of majority of the voters didnnot match those in its record. Malik’s sacking came only days after an election tribunal asked NADRA to verify the thumb

The News, Thursday June 05 2014 (http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-2-254177-One-year-gone-no-CEOs-appointed-as-promised) The News, Sunday January 19 2014 (http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-28045-Powers-of-Commission-to-appoint-CEOs-cut-drastically) The Nation, Friday June 27 2014 (http://www.nation.com.pk/business/27-Jun-2014/commission-tasked-with-appointing-pses-heads-dysfunctional)


impressions of voters from the Lahore constituency NA-118, won by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) candidate Malik Riaz.

l Tariq Malik was summoned by Punjab Chief Minister in Lahore on Monday where he was kept busy till late in the night. “The chief minister did not meet him. He was received by Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah who talked of thumb impressions verification in NA-118,” a source close to the Nadra chief’s office told The Express Tribune.

l Sanaullah asked Tariq Malik for a ‘compromise’ on the thumb impressions’ verification in the constituency by giving the PML-N candidate a clean chit. “Failing [to do so], he would have to face consequences,” said the officials.

l He, however, managed to reach Islamabad, and filed an application in the IHC that immediately restored him. Malik maintained that he could not be sacked under NADRA rules, without giving him any reasons. His contract was still valid for almost two years. Advocate Babar Sattar, counsel for the petitioner, challenging the notification argued that his client was removed from service without giving any solid reasons. His client was appointed as chairman on June 17, 2012, on a contract for three years under Section 3(12) of the NADRA Ordinance, he maintained.

“There was neither any show-cause notice nor any reason for removal in the notification which is against Section 3(12) of the ordinance,” argued Sattar in a packed courtroom.

Appointment of Acting Chairman PEMRA

l PEMRA after working several months without Chairman only succeeded in having Acting Chairman like many other institutions working on adhocism.

l The appointment of ‘Acting’ Chairman allows Government to appoint Mr. Parvez Rathore, former CCPO Lahore without following the laid down procedure as per ordinance. Mr. Parvez Rathore was a Personal Staff Officer of Mr. Nawaz Sharif in 1999 and a close friend of his younger brother Mr. Shahbaz Sharif that apparently was the criteria followed to appoint the Police Officer as head of such a sensitive authority.

The Express Tribune, Wednesday December 04 2013 (http://tribune.com.pk/story/640871/govt-all-thumbs-within-hours-nadra-chief-sacked-then-reinstated/)

PML-N FAKE MANDATE, FAKE PROMISES, FAKE PERFORMANCE

FIGURE 16

LIES-AT-A-GLANCE: A Handy Guide to PML-N Rhetoric vs Reality

Promises Action/Facts

PML(N)’s top priority will be the revival of the economy to double the GDP growth rate from less than 3% in the past five years to over 6% during the next five years [Manifesto, pg.8]

Budget Deficit will be brought down to 4%. [Manifesto, pg.10]

Tax to GDP ratio to increase from 9% at present to 15% by the end of 2018 [Manifesto, pg.10]

One-third reduction in current expenditures [Manifesto, pg.10]

According to Institute of Policy Reforms (IPR), the GDP for FY 2013-14 remains to 3.3% contrary to 3.7% in FY 2012-13, and contrary to their claim of 4.1%.

According to the Government Budget Document, Budget Deficit for FY 2013-14 remains 5.8%.

Tax to GDP ratio remains only 8.9% in FY 2013-14. [FBR]

In FY 2013-14, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has emerged as the first ever premier in Pakistan’s history to have made maximum foreign trips in a year costing PKR 259 million to the national exchequer.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif made 14 official trips in the last 12 months and this makes him the first premier to visit so many different countries in a minimum time span.

Real Mind blowing expenditures from Tax-Payers’ money will be in FY 2014-15.

Budget 2014-15:

PM House: PKR 779.35 million (PKR2.135 million/day)

Foreign Tours PM: PKR 1.579 billion (PKR 4.386 million/day)

Total PM House/PM Tours Expenditure: PKR 6.521 million/day


Promises PromisesAction/Facts Action/Facts

Inflation will be brought down to the range of 7 or 8% [Manifesto, pg.10]

Decreasing tax rates[Manifesto, pg.10]

Lower interest rates through effective monetary policy. [Manifesto, pg.10]

Limiting government borrowing[Manifesto, pg.10]

Reducing energy shortage and cost of producing energy. [Manifesto, pg.10]

“We will end load shedding in 06 months”, Shahbaz Sharif [Election Campaign Speeches].

President House: PKR 743. 25 million (PKR 2.065 million/day)

Foreign Tours President: PKR 350 million (PKR 0.97 million/day)

Total President House/President Tours Expenditure: PKR 3.035 million/day

Note: Allocation for Foreign Tours is in Foreign Office Budget FY 2014-15 and mentioned separately.

[Budget Document, ‘The News’ 04 Jun 2014].

In supplementary Budget 2013-14, PKR 1.54 billion expenditure was made to purchase two BMWs for PM and security apparatus for VVIPs.

PKR 225 million expenditure to purchase two BMW-76 Li High Security Sedans for PM.

PKR 69 million expenditure for PM House Garden, conveyance cars.

PKR 143 million for advertisement of PM Youth loan scheme.

[Supplementary Budget 2013-14, ‘Dawn’ 07 Jun 2014].

Bank, which will further increase public debt and will idebt future generations.

The government has signed/agreed loan agreements worth of USD 52 billion from different sources including USD 32 billion from China, USD 11 billion from World Bank, USD 6.64 billion from IMF and USD 2 billion from Eurobonds.

In May 2013, when PML-N Gov took over, Inflation Rate was 5.2% and in April 2014 it increased to 9.2%. [Pakistan Bureau of Statistics]

The increase of GST from 16% to 17% played major role in increased inflation.

Soon after formation of government, PML-N increase GST from 16% to 17% which increased the burden of indirect taxes on low income class.

Because of high inflation and rising fiscal deficit, State Bank of Pakistan increased Interest Rate to 10%. It was 9% when current government took over. [State Bank of Pakistan]

Public Debt as Percent to GDP stood at 61.2% of GDP, highest in history of Pakistan, by end March 2014 as compared with 59.5% of GDP for the same period last year.

Public Debt reached PKR 15.534 Trillion in FY 2013-14 from PKR 13.626 Trillion in FY 2012-13. [Pakistan Economic Surveys].

In 2014-15, the Federal Government will receive the highest ever foreign loans of over USD 10 billion from World Bank and Asian Development

The current government, contrary to the claims, fails to reduce electricity shortfall and load shedding.

In April 2014, the power situation, as expected, worsened. Electricity shortfall crossed 6,000MW, with urban areas facing 12 and rural areas up to 18 hours of load shedding

In FY 2013-14, Electricity Tariff increased by 78% which estimate PKR 3.5 billion to public.

Contrary to Manifesto, Power Production cost this year increases from PKR 9.58 per unit to PKR 11.77 per unit.

How cost of Producing energy for Govt can reduce? when in May 2014, Govt approved ‘world’s heaviest’ upfront tariff 9.67 cent per unit for coal power plant.

The tale of Govt benefiting the investors who are likely to install coal power plants in the country does not end here, it has also jacked up return on equity by 10 percent, which was earlier set at 17 percent, and now it has risen to 27 percent for the imported coal.



An important element of industrial revival will be the adoption of an export-led growth strategy supported by larger foreign direct Investments (FDI) [Manifesto, pg.11]

Our Industry and Trade policy will focus on the following:

• All exports will be sales tax free.

• A Technology Up-gradation Fund will be created in the public sector to support new investments in priority sectors.

• Private and public sector organizations will be brought together to establish an Equity Fund to encourage Pakistani companies to cater to niche markets through acquisitions of overseas brands and / or brand holding companies.

• Reduce the upfront cost of investment for prioritized sectors.

• Industrial parks, both for large and small industries will be developed and expanded, particularly in the under-developed areas.

• Clusters will be developed for industries such as gems and jewelry, leather, garments, fans, cutlery, halal meat, sports goods, furniture, crockery and cooking utensils.

• An Export-Import bank (EXIM) will be set up to deal exclusively with finances related to the export of capital goods and other manufactured items, consultancy and technological services involving deferred payment terms. This bank, like similar banks in other countries, will provide a wide range of services.

• Multinational Corporations (MNC’s) in Pakistan will be encouraged to expand their production facilities, not only to cater the Pakistani market but also the Central Asian, South Asian and Middle Eastern

• Markets. Necessary incentives and required infrastructure will be provided to these Corporations. The incentives will be linked to the flow of foreign capital to Pakistan by these companies.

• The investment strategy will be focused on encouraging buyers driven FDI, under which those investors will be encouraged who are interested in using Pakistan as a base to manufacture products for exports where Pakistan has a comparative advantage. SME’s and Clusters will be developed in various districts where they will be facilitated through one window operation and through marketing companies which will promote their products within and outside the country.

Contrary to Manifesto, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reduced to USD 750.9 million in FY 2013-14 (till April) which is the lowest in last 10 years. In FY 2012-13, it was USD 1456.5 million. [State Bank of Pakistan].

None of these Fulfilled.

We will create incentive programmes for the private sector to create maximum employment [Manifesto, pg.14]

PML-N will appoint independent and professional boards who in turn will appoint competent CEOs of state own enterprises. Professional competence and merit will be the only criteria for appointment ofboards and CEOs. [Manifesto, pg.18]

The current Federal Government failed to create job opportunities in FY 2013-14. Unemployment rate remain unchanged from 6.2% same as previous year. [Pakistan Bureau of Statistics]

Despite SC order and PML-N Manifesto promise that it would promote good governance and appoint all the heads of state own enterprises transparently through a ‘commission/board’, the commission for the appointment of heads of State Own Enterprises (SOEs) is dysfunctional for past many months, resulting in ad-hocism at the top level. Summary for new appointment is pending at PM office despite several reminders.

The mandate of the ‘commission’ formed for selection of Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) of state-owned enterprises has been drastically whittled down as appointment of heads of nearly 30 government enterprises has been taken out of its purview.

Despite one year in power more than 80% of the state-run enterprises and companies are being run on ad hoc basis through acting heads, due to which the performance of these institutions has declined.



As a step to resolve energy crises, PML-N will create Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources through the merger of Ministries of Water and Power, and Petroleum and Natural Resources. [Manifesto, pg. 24]

Corporatization and privatization of DISCOs [Manifesto, pg. 24]

PML-N commits to depoliticize sports bodies, bring professional managements significantly improve the allocations for various sports bodies [Manifesto, pg. 44]

Transmission and Distribution losses to be progressively brought under 10%.[Manifesto, pg. 24]

No merger till date.

The 28 institutions and departments being run by the acting heads include Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco), National Power Construction Company, National Transmission and Dispatch Company, Chief Executive Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP), National Insurance Company Limited (NICL), Chairman National Fertilizer Corporation (NFC), Pakistan State Oil (PSO), Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL) and Sui Southern Limited (SSGPL), Pakistan Mineral Development Company (Pvt.) Limited (PMDC).

No action yet.

Najam Sethi and cricket are laughing stocks with Pakistan losing Asia Cup.

It has been one year, PML-N failed to resolve the issue of Pakistan Olympic Association (POA) due to its political biasedness.

PML-N continued to ignore/sideline Pakistan Olympic Association (POA) led by General Arif Hassan recognized by International Olympic Committee (IOC) and back unrecognized POA led by Akram Sahi.

First time in history, Pakistan Hockey team will not participate in Common Wealth Games Glasgow in July 2014. Also, may athletes will be unable to participate due to parallel federations issue in their respective sports.

First time in history that Pakistan Hockey team failed to qualify for World Cup 2014 in Netherland.

Transmission & Distribution losses in FY 2013-14 remain same about 25% as per Pakistan Economic Survey.

Instead reducing Transmission & Distribution losses, in May 2014 Economic Coordination Committee, chaired by Finance Minister, approved to allow Discos to claim 15.75% losses as against the current limit of 12.82%. The decisions will result in increase in electricity tariffs from 12% to 15% and putting an extra burden of over PKR 100 billion annually on consumers.

To promote a culture of accountability, integrity and transparency, ‘whistle-blower’ protection law (public interest disclosure) will be enacted for providing safeguards to persons who expose corruption, wrongdoing and other illegalities.

Step down Zardari and hand over your money otherwise we will hang you and your cronies upside down here,” Shahbaz Sharif while addressing the crowd. [Speech in Lahore 2011].

No effort made in this regard as transparency and accountability is not priority of PML-N.

The fate of corruption cases against Asif Ali Zardari is evident as Chairman NAB appointed with his consultation.

No effort made yet to bring back money from Swiss Accounts.


The ultimate scandal of PML-N is simply this: by reducing Pakistanis’ lives to a constant struggle for survival, it robs them of what makes us truly human – the ability to dream. At this point, the average Pakistani dreams of the day when he might flip the switch and have the light actually come on. She dreams of drinking a glass of water without catching amoebic dysentery. They dream of their children having enough to eat, and avoiding polio. Higher-order dreams – education, culture, service beyond self, scientific progress, civic life – have been so long deferred, they are all but forgotten.

It has been said, always by defenders of the status quo, that each nation gets the government it deserves. If this is true at all, a highly debatable point, it would seem to require a few basic preconditions, none of them extant in Pakistan. The people of that nation must be able to make their voices heard and respected without fear of violence. Pakistanis have voted, and their votes have been thrown away. They have protested the rigging, and their protests have been ignored. The protests will continue until the people have justice. But although it is true that, twenty-five years after Tianenmen Square, three years after Tahrir Square, one year after Taksim Square, Pakistanis admire the courage of those who gave their lives trying to bring down corrupt rulers, only a monster would suggest that anyone who hesitates to leave his own children orphaned somehow “deserves” to live in a dictatorship.

Above all, no nation’s people can be expected to act on the basis of information they do not possess. This is what is so uniquely disturbing about PML-N’s aggressive moves this past year against the State Bank, Bureau of Statistics, national registry, and auditor. In Plain Sight has spent the past 50 pages or so documenting, among many other things, PML-N’s near-total capture of Pakistan’s state-owned enterprises. More than one year into PML-N’s term, 80 percent of the SOEs are led by “acting chairmen,” a sidestep which permits PML-N to hand the job to lackeys rather than follow the merit-based recruitment process prescribed by law.

With so many posts filled by rent-seeking mediocrities, it is admittedly difficult to pinpoint the most repulsive example. (Although the case of acting PEMRA head Parvez Rathore, whose chief qualification to regulate the nation’s private electronic media appears to be his friendship with Shabbaz Sharif, must surely come close.) But again, distressing as the SOE capture may be, it is PML-N’s unprecedented ruthlessness against the custodians of basic factual information that constitutes such a new and existential threat. When good men are pressured to lie, never mind destroyed professionally, driven into exile, and threatened with

CONCLUSION“So what is the Pakistani Dream? Other than to emigrate?”

Title character of the 2012 film The Reluctant Fundamentalist,

addressing his classroom of university students

Promises Action/Facts

PML-N promised to improve Thana Culture and reduce crimes in Manifesto and speeches.

According to Punjab Police document, in period Jan-May 2014 crime rate has increased 12% as corresponding to same period previous year. Gullu Butt culture prevails and Model Town incident has blown the lid of the shameful police politicization.

Crimes in 2014 (Upto May)

Cases Registered: 164445

Murder: 2371

Attempted Murder: 2873

Kidnapping: 6050

Rape: 1200

Dacoity/Robbery: 15970

Vehcile Theft/snatching: 11237

The figures are only those cases which registered by Police. The numbers will incline drastically if unregistered cases either willingly or by refusal of Police added. [Punjabpolice.gov.pk]

The police have revealed in an annual report that one female was assaulted sexually after every three hours and 40 minutes while one gang-rape incident occurred after every 45 hours and 38 minutes in 2013 in the most populated Punjab province. [The Nation, Feb 26 2014].

Source: PML-N Manifesto 2013 and election campaign speeches


arrest for saying things like “this is not his thumbprint” or “that is against the law” or “2 + 2 = 4,” we have truly entered new territory. If we go any deeper into this territory, we will quickly become a nation where not just the law, but the truth itself is whatever the most powerful person says it is.

Only the truth can set a nation free. Only in that freedom can the nation reclaim and pursue its dream. The Pakistani dream is in fact the universal dream. To live well at home, without being forced to go abroad for any semblance of a decent life of dignity and purpose. To live in a society of equal justice under the law. To live in a society that celebrates achievement but takes care of its most vulnerable, that provides opportunity to all, where everyone can rise as high as his talent and drive will taken him.

This is not too much to ask. The Pakistani people deserve – yes, deserve -- nothing less. But none of it is possible under the PML-N regime – not only because their current term has been a disaster of unprecedented proportions, although it has, manifestly, been that, but because PML-N did not just show up in May 2013. Long before its current term began, PML-N and the Sharif brothers embodied and perpetuated a corrupt political culture that has consigned a hard-working resourceful nation to 70 years of poverty and backwardness.

Pakistan’s political culture has been for 70 years a fever swamp of lawlessness, cronyism, graft, theft, incompetence, unaccountability, and corruption of every sort. To drain that swamp will be the work of years and will require the whole nation to come together.

But before you can drain the swamp, you have to get rid of the crocodiles.

46 White Paper by PTI - August 2014

Pakistan Tehreek-e-InsafPTI Secretariat, House 2, Street No. 84, Sector G-6/4, Islamabad

PTI White Paper on PML 1st year performance

Documents