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Equity Research
BUYInvestment ConsiderationGold sales surgeIn 3Q20, gold sales
rose significantly by 147% QoQ to 6967 kg,compared to 2Q20 growth
of -45% QoQ. This was driven by an increasein demand because of the
pandemic. In order to maintain servicesduring Covid-19. ANTM
continues to introduce new Logam Mulia Goldproduct marketing
services like online sales transactions and goldbuybacks through
the Butik Emas Logam Mulia network spread across11 cities in
Indonesia. With the increase in gold price in 2020 andincreasing
public interest in safe haven investments, the companycontinues to
conduct gold exploration activities in the IUP area, toprovide
positive returns for the company's future financial
performance.
Continuing strategyAs mentioned in previous reports, in 2020,
ANTM is focusing on thedevelopment of domestic market sales,
especially Gold, inline withpositive demand, as well as ferronikel
and bauxite for export markets.Ferronikel sales are targeted at
27000 Tni, and 9M20 sales reached19507 Tni, which is stable
compared to 9M19’s 19703 Tni. TargetBauxite sales are 1.2 million
wmt with 9M20 increasing by 18% YoY with9M19 production volume of
1.1 million wmt. For nickel ore, the companyno longer conducts
export sales with a domestic market focus withtarget sales of over
1 million wmt. During 9M20, nickel ore sales were1,04 million wmt
up significantly compared to 2Q20’s nickle ore salesvolume of
167000 wmt. Domestic nickel ore sales have been supportedby the
issuance of MESDM regulation No. 11/2020 as described in
ourprevious report. In addition, other ANTM strategies are to
keepproduction costs low, and preserve cash through negotiations
withcreditors, banks and suppliers. ANTM is also improving
internalefficiencies in both business units and the head
office.
Valuation: 63% upsideBased on EV/EBITDA, we have a one year
target price ofIDR.2020/share or trading at 21x EV/EBITDA. With 63%
upside, werecommended BUY.
24 November 2020
Diversified mining and minerals processing, Equity
Price IDR. 1240 Target Price IDR. 2020JKSE Index 5677.31
Stock CodeBloomberg code ANTM IJMarket cap (IDR.bn)
29,437.752-Week High (IDR) 1,28052-Week Low (IDR) 3386-m Avg Daily.
Val (IDR) 782Free Float (%) 35
Major Shareholders (%)INALUM 65%Public 35%
USD/IDR-YE2019A 138662020F (Avg) 14600
Key Indicators 2021FDER (x) 0.35Debt ratio (x) 0.40
Analyst: Revita Dhiah
[email protected]
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
Profit and Loss (IDR. in bn)
2018 A 2019 A 2020 F 2021 F 2022 F
Sales 25.241 32.719 26.639 27.090 33.596
COGS (21.765) (28.271) (22.492) (22.854) (28.432)
Gross Profit 3.476 4.447 4.146 4.236 5.164
Operating Expenses (1.624) (3.492) (2.375) (2.825) (3.519)
Operating Income 1.853 956 1.772 1.411 1.646
Other Income (587) (269) (451) (368) (469)
Tax Expense (391) (493) (386) (326) (404)
Minority Interest (0,002) (0,001) 0,010 (0,001) (0,001)
Net Income 874 194 934 717 772
EPS 36 8 39 30 32
EBITDA 2.645 2.010 2.723 2.458 2.797
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ANTM
Company ProfilePT Aneka Tambang, a leading Indonesian
diversified mining and minerals processing company was
established
in July 5, 1968. The company was previously owned by government
65% and public 35%, and is now owned by
Inalum 65% and the public 35%. ANTM was formed by several
Indonesian Government projects & mining
companies. ANTM offers various products such as ferronickel, low
and high grade nickel ore, gold, silver,
bauxite, alumina, coal, and precious metals processing services.
ANTM undertakes all stages of mining and
processing, including exploration, mining, smelting, refining,
and marketing in relation to nickle ore, ferronickle,
gold, silver, alumina, other precious metal, and coal.
Asset in operation
Source: company
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ANTM
Source: company and Wood Mackenzie,
and Roskill Information Services Ltd
Ferronickle processing
Nickle outlook 2020
Among base metals, nickel prices experienced the sharpest fall
in the first quarter, dropping 21 percent from
US$/ton14077 to US$11055 , a stark contrast to the high prices
in the second half of 2019. Demand for stainless steel
products—which accounts for three-quarters of the world’s nickel
usage—has been hit hard in China (the world’s top
consumer) and Italy (Europe’s largest consumer) due to
lockdowns. The slump in nickel demand has more than offset
supply disruptions. Indonesia’s nickel ore export ban came into
effect in January 2020, which had buoyed prices last year
following stockpiling efforts ahead of the ban. The Philippines,
which supplies 70 percent of China’s nickel ore imports,
has suspended its mining operation due to pandemic. During the
first half of 2020, Prices made a comeback in Q2, and
even though they did not reach their highest level of the year,
they ended the quarter up by 15 percent from their lowest
mark, reaching US$12,790 on June 30. According to Roskill
Information Services Ltd, When looking at nickel’s
fundamentals, the coronavirus has had a major impact on demand
globally, and while China is now returning strongly,
the rest of the world will take a few years to get back to 2019
levels. Stainless and superalloy being particularly affected,
but also the electric vehicle (EV) sector. We believe, Nickel
demand is likely to remain high as stainless steel production
stays strong and electric vehicles (EVs) continue to rise in
importance. By 2030, forecast nickel demand from the
batteries sector to account for a little over 25 percent of the
total nickel market. Based on Wood Mckenzie, expecting
nickel prices to decline in the second half of 2020 from current
levels, leaving the average for the year at around the
US$12,300 to US$12,500 range.
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ANTM
Source: Binaartha and company
Chart: Nickle production vs sales volume (Wmt ‘000)
yoy
Chart: Ferronickle production vs sales volume (Tni)
yoy
Chart: Nickle production vs sales volume (Wmt ‘000)
QoQ
Chart: Ferronickle production vs sales volume (Tni)
QoQ
Chart: Gold sales volume (Kg) YoY Chart: Gold sales volume (Kg)
QoQ
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ANTM
Source: Binaartha and company
Chart: Bauxite production vs sales volume (Wmt
‘000) yoy
Chart: Bauxite production vs sales volume (Wmt 000)
QoQ
Chart: Ferronickle Average Selling Price (US$/lb) YoY Chart:
Gold Average selling price (US$/Toz)
Chart: Debt to Equity ratio (x) YoY
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ANTM
Profit and Loss (IDR. in bn) yoy
Balance Sheet (IDR. in bn) yoy
Source: Binaartha and company
Profit and Loss (IDR. in bn) 2018 A 2019 A 2020 F 2021 F 2022
F
Sales 25.241 32.719 26.639 27.090 33.596
COGS (21.765) (28.271) (22.492) (22.854) (28.432)
Gross Profit 3.476 4.447 4.146 4.236 5.164
Operating Expenses (1.624) (3.492) (2.375) (2.825) (3.519)
Operating Income 1.853 956 1.772 1.411 1.646
Other Income (587) (269) (451) (368) (469)
Tax Expense (391) (493) (386) (326) (404)
Minority Interest (0,002) (0,001) 0,010 (0,001) (0,001)
Net Income 874 194 934 717 772
EPS 36 8 39 30 32
EBITDA 2.645 2.010 2.723 2.458 2.797
Balance Sheet (IDR. in bn) 2017A 2018A 2019 A 2020 F 2021 F 2022
FCash and cash equivalent 5.551 4.299 3.636 3.369 4.008 3.311Trade
Account Receivable 971 944 1.002 1.241 1.336 1.289inventory 1.258
1.846 1.796 3.576 3.117 3.406Other current asset 1.222 254 1.230
1.998 2.032 2.520assset classified as held for sale 0 0 0 0 0
0Current Asset 9.002 7.342 7.665 10.184 10.493 10.525Fixed Asset
14.093 19.490 18.866 18.843 19.576 21.913other long term asset
6.919 5.364 3.664 3.197 3.251 4.032
Total non current Asset 21.012 24.853 22.530 22.040 22.826
25.945Total Asset 30.014 32.195 30.195 32.224 33.320 36.470Trade
Account Payable 806 868 740 1.095 965 1.105Short Term bank loans
2.716 1.452 1.408 1.327 1.247 1.210Other short term liablities
2.030 3.242 3.145 3.996 4.064 5.039
Total current liabilities 5.552 5.562 5.293 6.417 6.276
7.354bond 2.097 2.098 2.099 2.099 2.099 2.099investment loans 3.200
5.250 3.466 3.198 3.698 4.698other long term liabilities 674 837
1.204 1.225 1.246 1.545Total long term/ non current liabilities
5.971 8.185 6.768 6.522 7.043 8.343Total Liabilities 11.524 13.747
12.061 12.940 13.319 15.697non controlling interest 0,02 0,02 0,02
0,02 0,02 0,02Total Equities 18.490 18.448 18.133 19.284 20.001
20.773Total Liabilities & Equity 30.014 32.195 30.195 32.224
33.320 36.470
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ANTM
Cash Flow (IDR. In bn) yoy
Source: Binaartha and company
Ratio Highlights
Cash Flow (IDR. in bn) 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F+ Net
Income 5552 5562 5293 6417 6276 7354
+Depreciation 773 793 1054 952 1047 1152 - Change in WC 756 418
(1255) (1662) 188 349
Cash From Operating Activities 1666 2085 (7) 224 1952 2273 capex
(1907) (6189) (430) (929) (1780) (3489)other long term asset (527)
1556 1700 467 (54) (781)cash from investing activities (2434)
(4634) 1270 (462) (1834) (4270)bond (899) 1 1 0 0 0 Investment
loans (453) 2049 (1784) (267) 500 1000
other long term liabilities 103 164 367 21 21 299 Equity (55)
(916) (509) 216 0 0 cash from financing activities (1304) 1297
(1926) (30) 521 1299 Net Changes in Cash (2073) (1252) (663) (267)
639 (697)Beginning Balance 7623 5551 4299 3636 3369 4008 Ending
balance 5551 4299 3636 3369 4008 3311
Ratio Highlights 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020 F 2021 F 2022 F
Growth (%)
Sales 38,96% 99,48% 29,62% -18,58% 1,69% 24,02%
OP 7263,93% 208,48% -48,42% 85,40% -20,37% 16,65%
EBITDA 122,18% 92,55% -24,03% 35,51% -9,76% 13,82%
Net profit 110,63% 540,57% -77,83% 381,98% -23,27% 7,72%
EPS 110,63% 540,57% -77,83% 381,98% -23,27% 7,72%
Profitability (%)
Operating Margin 4,75% 7,34% 2,92% 6,65% 5,21% 4,90%
EBITDA margin 10,86% 10,48% 6,14% 10,22% 9,07% 8,33%
NET Profit margin 1,08% 3,46% 0,59% 3,51% 2,65% 2,30%
ROA 0,45% 2,72% 0,64% 3,24% 2,45% 2,33%
ROE 0,74% 4,74% 1,07% 4,85% 3,58% 3,72%
Liquidity
Current Ratio (X) 1,62 1,32 1,45 1,59 1,67 1,43
Cash Ratio 1,00 0,77 0,69 0,53 0,64 0,45
Solvability
Debt/Equity (x) 0,43 0,48 0,38 0,34 0,35 0,39
Int. Coverage (x) 0,75 1,12 2,94 5,96 4,42 4,39
Debt Ratio 0,38 0,43 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,43
Per Share data (Rp)
EPS 5,68 36,39 8,07 38,88 29,83 32,13
BVPS 769,45 767,70 754,59 802,46 832,30 864,43
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ANTM
RESEARCH TEAM(62-21) 520-6678 ext.612
Disclaimer; PT Binaartha Sekuritas has compiled this report in
good faith, using information believed to be reliable. PTBinaartha
and its analyst take no responsibility for the accuracy of the
information contained in this report. This reporthas been produced
for distribution to clients of PT Binaartha Sekuritas only. This
report is not an invitation to buy or sellany security. PT
Binaartha Sekuritas may have used the information in this report
prior to publication. The company orits clients may have positions
in or may from time to time buy or sell the securities mentioned in
this report or otherrelated securities.
Stock Ratings:
Buy: a recommendation to purchase the security with upside
potential of 20% or greater
Hold: a recommendation to neither buy nor sell a security with
upside potential of 0-20%.
Sell: a recommendation to close out a long position in a
security with upside potential below 0% or negative.