Prof. Martin Parry PROVIA Presentation, October 2011

(Programme of Research On Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation)

Professor Martin ParryGrantham Institute, Imperial College London

Chair of Pro-Via Interim Scientific Steering Committee

THE ‘PROBLEM:

Climate change: Supposedly the ‘biggest’ challenge…but no fully coordinated scientific means of confronting it.

World Climate Impacts and Responses Programme (WCIRP) no longer providing a coordinating role within the WCP

[World Climate Programme = WCRP, WCIRP, WC Data Prog, WC Applications Prog]

Adaptation, long ignored (even treated as admission of ‘failure’, up to c. 2000), but now a key part of international climate policy:

The 2010 UNFCCC Cancun agreement included this target for the Fund: “a total of $30 billion in fast start finance up to 2012 and the intention to raise $100 billion in long-term funds by 2020”.

Adaptation financed:

mitigateadapt

Bear cost

Emissions targetsThe Impacts ‘gap

What was needed for VIA:

1. A single research programme, focused on impacts and response to climate change. (A counterpart to WCRP)

2. Able to deliver the high quality information being increasingly requested by policy-makers.

3. Able to react to policy requests with due urgency.

4. Capable of prioritising research and communicating this to governments and international agencies (and thus also helping fund the research)

Objectives of PRO-VIA:

1. Coordinate research on climate impacts, vulnerability and

adaptation

2. Guide investment in research

3. Communicate scientific information to governments and

international agencies

4. Build research capacity, especially in developing countries

• Organised by the scientific community

• Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) composed of scientists

• A joint initiative of UNEP, WMO, and UNESCO.

• Secretariat in UNEP.

How is PRO-VIA governed?

Steps toward establishment:

1st (interim) PROVIA SSC meeting November 2010, Geneva. Start-up funding from UNEO

First activities started January 2011.

2nd (interim) PROVIA SSC meeting June 2011, Geneva

WMO Congress (June 2011) approved that:

i) PROVIA replaces WCIRP as VIA component in the World Climate Programme

ii) PROVIA is source of VIA research to the Global Framework of Climate Services

PROVIA GOVERNANCE AND OPERATIONAL STRUCTURE

Sponsoring Organizations

“UN Joint Programme”

Managing Agent – UNEP

+ Sponsoring Partners

PRO-VIA’s initial workplan includes 4 Activities:

• i) Develop a prioritised international agenda for research on VIA., and

communicate to governments and international agencies,

• ii) Provide scientific information on VIA to the UNFCCC and similar

bodies, especially information that will enable more effective adaptation.

• iii) A biennial conference to improve the coherence of VIA research

• iv) Improve the robustness of VIA assessments, by revising guidance

on research methods.

Activity 1. Develop, and communicate to governments and

international agencies, a prioritised international agenda for

research on VIA.

• Experts’ prioritisation + policy-makers prioritisation → integrate.

• Prep docs → Foresight Panel of experts (June 2011) +

policymakers (Oct 2011); review (end 2011).

• Communicate via meetings with UNFCCC, governments,

meetings (eg CoP Durban December 2011 (?): Planet under

Pressure London, March 2012; 2nd Intern, Adaptn Conf, Arizona,

May 2012; Rio, June 2012).

Four most pressing (policy) questions for future

research to address:

• What adaptation will be needed between now and 2030 to

cope with early unmitigated impacts.?

• Where is vulnerability greatest?

• What are the likely unavoided climate impacts beyond

2030?

• How can adaptive capacity be built to confront these

impacts?

Activity 2. Provide scientific information on VIA to the

UNFCCC and similar bodies, especially information

that will enable more effective adaptation.

PROVIA is now an official partner in the Nairobi Work

Programme.

Next: A role in (?): a) the Adaptation Committee.

b) development of procedures and guidance

leading to the development of National Adaptation Plans.

c) development of Work Programme to

Consider Approaches to Address Loss and Damage.

d) the Review of the Adequacy of the Long-

Term Global Goal.

Activity 3. Improve the coherence of the VIA research

community, by developing improved interaction.

Second Adaptation Conference, May 2012, Arizona

http://www.adaptation.arizona.edu/adaptation2012.

PROVIA website launched September 2012

Next step:

Web-based Newsletter

Activity 4. Improve the robustness of VIA assessments, by

developing revised guidance on research methodology.

- Revision in progress, authors assigned, 1st author mtg October 2011

- Draft for review mtg (March 2012) + international review Apr-Aug 2012

- Completion October 2012

Proposed New Activities

• Methods of building capacity in adapting to climate change.

• Methods of developing adaptation and other socio-economic

scenarios..

• Monitoring current vulnerability and adaptation, and avoiding

potential surprises.

Next challenge:

• Sufficient support for a full-time Secretariat…

…and funding of the proposed activities

Summing up. The purpose of PRO-VIA:

• To provide international coordination of research on vulnerability, impacts adaptation to climate change;

• To prioritize research; help it access funds;

• To communicate new knowledge about adaptation to governments and agencies.

• Organised by the scientific community;

• With a secretariat funded and based in UNEP

THANK YOU!