Jun 01, 2020
Disclaimer All slides in this presentation are the intellectual property of Stage Capital, LLC and Roger Staiger, FRICS. Use of these slides is only permitted when presented by Roger Staiger, FRICS or a designee of Stage Capital, LLC. Further distribution is strictly prohibited.
Roger Staiger, FRICS [email protected] 2 of 35
Shameless Self Promotion Ø Literally wrote the
book on Financial Modelling
Ø Pre-sale available on Amazon.com ($171.00)
Ø Available May 2015 Ø Publisher: Routledge
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Structure Ø 4-Part Sessions: 2-hours each
Ø Summary Page (1st half) [Complete] Ø Amortization Schedule (page) [Complete] Ø Pro Forma Page Ø Pulling it all together
Ø Bottom half of Summary Page
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Pro Forma Model Ø 4-unit apartment building Ø MS Excel 2007/10 Ø Focused on BASIC Modeling skills Ø Result: completed scalable, modular,
and portable pro forma model
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Model Summary Ø 4-Apartment units (Pretax analysis) Ø Vacancy Rate Ø Rental Escalation Ø Equity Sourcing Ø Debt Sourcing
Ø Debt Expense, term, rate, Type (Amortizing, Interest Only)
Ø Closing Expenses Roger Staiger, FRICS [email protected] 6 of 35
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Structure/Logic Flow
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Summary Page Pro Forma Page (s3)
Amortization Page (s2) Inputs Section
(s1)
Analysis (s4)
Complete (S1)
Complete (S2)
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Inputs Page
Roger Staiger, FRICS [email protected]
Sources 549,000 Opera,ons Units I/P Finance I/P
Equity 99,000 Unit 1 -‐ One Bedroom per mont 1,500 Tranche 1
Investor 1 80,000 Unit 2 -‐ Two Bedroom per mont 2,000 Principal 400,000
Investor 2 19,000 Unit 3 -‐ Two Bedroom per mont 2,000 Term (years) 20
Debt 450,000 Unit 4 -‐ Two Bedroom per mont 2,000 Interest Rate 8%
Tranche 1 400,000 Interest Only
Tranche 2 50,000 Vacancy 1 5.00% OriginaOon Fee 1%
Vacancy 2 5.00%
Uses 549,000 Vacancy 3 5.00% Tranche 2
Purchase Price 350,000 Vacancy 4 5.00% Principal 50,000
RenovaOon 165,000 Term (years) 20
Legal 3,500 Rental Escl 2% Interest Rate 15%
Bank 2,000 Interest Only
Personal 1,500 Management per Net Rev 5% OriginaOon Fee 1%
IDC 24,700 Repairs per Net Rev 5%
Tax Escrow 1,300 Janitor per year 2600 Valua,on I/P
Finance Cost 4,500 Heat per year 2130 Cap Rate 10.9%
Electricity per year 1000 Sales Expense 6%
Surplus/(Deficit) -‐ Water per year 1200 Discount Rate 10%
Property Tax per year 7800
Insurance per year 2600 Sales Period Year 10
Expense Escl 2%
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Inputs Page (Pro Forma)
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Equity
Debt
Uses
Revenue
Expenses
Finance
Valuation/ Sale
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Pro Forma
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Uses
Debt
Equity = CF0
Rev
enue
Exp
Fnan
Rev
enue
Exp
S Exp
Princ
T+1
NI
CFT
NI NI
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Amortization Page
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Tranche 1 Tranche 2
Principal 400,000 Principal 50,000
Interest 8.00% Interest 15.00%
Term 20 Term 20
I/O I/O
# BoP Principal Interest Payment EoP Annual # BoP Principal Interest Payment EoP Annual
1 400,000 679 2,667 3,346 399,321 1 50,000 33 625 658 49,967
2 399,321 684 2,662 3,346 398,637 2 49,967 34 625 658 49,933
3 398,637 688 2,658 3,346 397,949 3 49,933 34 624 658 49,899
4 397,949 693 2,653 3,346 397,256 4 49,899 35 624 658 49,864
5 397,256 697 2,648 3,346 396,559 5 49,864 35 623 658 49,829
6 396,559 702 2,644 3,346 395,857 6 49,829 36 623 658 49,793
7 395,857 707 2,639 3,346 395,150 7 49,793 36 622 658 49,757
8 395,150 711 2,634 3,346 394,439 8 49,757 36 622 658 49,721
9 394,439 716 2,630 3,346 393,723 9 49,721 37 622 658 49,684
10 393,723 721 2,625 3,346 393,002 10 49,684 37 621 658 49,647
11 393,002 726 2,620 3,346 392,276 11 49,647 38 621 658 49,609
12 392,276 731 2,615 3,346 391,545 40,149 12 49,609 38 620 658 49,571 7,901
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Pro Forma Page
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Periods 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Revenue Year 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Unit1 Rent 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500
Unit2 Rent 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Unit3 Rent 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Unit4 Rent 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Total Rent 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500
Vacancy 1 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75
Vacancy 2 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Vacancy 3 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Vanancy 4 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Total Vacancy 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375
Total Revenue 7,125 7,125 7,125 7,125 7,125 7,125 7,125 7,125 7,125 7,125 7,125 7,125
Expenses
Management 356 356 356 356 356 356 356 356 356 356 356 356
Repairs 356 356 356 356 356 356 356 356 356 356 356 356
Janitor 217 217 217 218 218 218 219 219 220 220 220 221
Heat 178 178 178 178 179 179 179 180 180 180 180 181
Electricity 83 83 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 85 85 85
Water 100 100 100 101 101 101 101 101 101 102 102 102
Property Tax 650 651 652 653 654 655 657 658 659 660 661 662
Insurance 217 217 217 218 218 218 219 219 220 220 220 221
Total Expenses 2,157 2,159 2,161 2,164 2,166 2,169 2,171 2,174 2,176 2,178 2,181 2,183
Net Opera,ng Income 4,968 4,966 4,964 4,961 4,959 4,956 4,954 4,951 4,949 4,947 4,944 4,942
Pro Forma Page Completed (Bottom Section)
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Debt
Tranch 1 3,346 3,346 3,346 3,346 3,346 3,346 3,346 3,346 3,346 3,346 3,346 3,346
Tranch 2 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658
Tranche 1 4,004 4,004 4,004 4,004 4,004 4,004 4,004 4,004 4,004 4,004 4,004 4,004
Sales Proceeds
Sales Price -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐
Sales Expense -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐
Principal Repay -‐ Tranche 1 -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐
Principal Repay -‐
Tranche 2 -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐
Net Sales Proceeds -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐
Reversion FCF -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐
Opera,ng FCF 964 962 959 957 955 952 950 947 945 942 940 937
Total FCF (99,000) 964 962 959 957 955 952 950 947 945 942 940 937
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Analysis/Valuation
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Valua,on: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Revenue Rental 90,000 91,800 93,636 95,509 97,419 99,367 101,355 103,382 105,449 107,558 Vacancy 4,500 4,590 4,682 4,775 4,871 4,968 5,068 5,169 5,272 5,378
Total Revenue 85,500 87,210 88,954 90,733 92,548 94,399 96,287 98,213 100,177 102,180
Expense Management 4,275 4,361 4,448 4,537 4,627 4,720 4,814 4,911 5,009 5,109 Repairs 4,275 4,361 4,448 4,537 4,627 4,720 4,814 4,911 5,009 5,109 Janitor 2,624 2,677 2,731 2,786 2,842 2,900 2,958 3,018 3,079 3,141 Heat 2,150 2,193 2,237 2,282 2,329 2,376 2,423 2,472 2,522 2,573 Electricity 1,009 1,030 1,050 1,072 1,093 1,115 1,138 1,161 1,184 1,208 Water 1,211 1,236 1,260 1,286 1,312 1,338 1,365 1,393 1,421 1,450 Property Tax 7,872 8,031 8,193 8,358 8,527 8,699 8,875 9,054 9,237 9,423
Insurance 2,624 2,677 2,731 2,786 2,842 2,900 2,958 3,018 3,079 3,141
Total Expenses 26,040 26,564 27,098 27,644 28,200 28,767 29,346 29,937 30,539 31,154
Net Opera,ng Income 59,460 60,646 61,856 63,090 64,348 65,631 66,941 68,276 69,638 71,026
Debt Tranche 1 40,149 40,149 40,149 40,149 40,149 40,149 40,149 40,149 40,149 40,149 Tranche 2 7,901 7,901 7,901 7,901 7,901 7,901 7,901 7,901 7,901 7,901
Total Debt 48,050 48,050 48,050 48,050 48,050 48,050 48,050 48,050 48,050 48,050
Net Sales Proceeds -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ 308,167
Reversion FCF -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ 308,167 Opera,ng FCF 11,410 12,596 13,806 15,040 16,298 17,582 18,891 20,226 21,588 22,977
Total FCF (99,000) 11,410 12,596 13,806 15,040 16,298 17,582 18,891 20,226 21,588 331,144
DSCR 1.24 1.26 1.29 1.31 1.34 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.45 1.48 Minimum 1.24
Cash-‐on-‐Cash 11.53% 12.72% 13.95% 15.19% 16.46% 17.76% 19.08% 20.43% 21.81% 23.21% Minimum 11.53%
PV Reversion 118,812 54.64% PV Opera,ng 98,616 45.36% Total 217,428 CF0 99,000 NPV 118,428 IRR 22.42%
Inputs Ø Sources
Ø Equity Ø Investor 1 Ø Investor 2
Ø Debt Ø Tranche 1 (source) Ø Tranche 2 (source)
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Inputs (cont’d) Ø Uses
Ø Purchase Price Ø Renovation Cost Ø Legal Expense
Ø Bank Ø Personal
Ø Interest During Construction (IDC) Ø Tax Escrow Ø Finance Cost
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Inputs - Operations Ø Units 1 – 4 Ø Vacancy 1 – 4 Ø Rental Escalation Ø Expenses
Ø Management, Repairs, Janitor, Heat, Electricity, Water, Property Tax, Insurance
Ø Expense Escalation
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Inputs - Finance Tranche 1 Ø Principal Ø Term(years) Ø Interest Rate Ø Interest Only Ø Origination Fee
Tranche 2 Ø Principal Ø Term(years) Ø Interest Rate Ø Interest Only Ø Origination Fee
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Inputs - Valuation Ø Capitalization Rate Ø Sales Expense Ø Discount Rate Ø Sale Period (timing)
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Scalability
The benefit(s) of successful pro forma modeling
Scalability (Incorporating the Waterfall)
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Ø Separation of cash flows according to owners’ agreement
Ø Separation of cash flows by yield, NOT by order Ø Order: Bank vanilla example
Ø “Pref” Rate: Preference Rate Ø Generally provided to Investor Ø Acts as a coupon rate, e.g. Preferred Equity
Waterfall Diagram
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Pari Passu
“Pref” Rate15% good proxy for “Pref”1st Tier
Non Pari Passu split
2nd Tier 2nd Tier rate
N # Tiers
Nth Tier rate
Final Tier
Nth Tier
Example – Final DistributionX % to Promote to Sponsor(1-‐X%) distribution Pari Passu
Waterfall Logic
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15% IRR
20% IRR
20% + IRR
Sponsor10%
Sponsor20%
PromoteSponsor40%
Investor90%
Investor80%
Investor90%
Sponsor10%
Waterfall Addition (100% Scalable)
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Summary Page
Pro Forma Page (s3)
Amortization Page (s2)
Inputs Section (s1)
Analysis (Project) (s4)
Waterfall Page (Investor) (s5)
Stochastic – Monte Carlo (100% Scalable)
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Summary Page
Pro Forma Page (s3)
Amortization Page (s2)
Inputs Section (s1)
Analysis (Project) (s4)
Waterfall Page (Investor) (s5)
Stochastic Page (s6)
Assumptions Section
Forecast Section
Forecast – Distribution (Stochastic)
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Construction Draw Page (100% Scalable)
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Summary Page
Pro Forma Page (s3)
Amortization Page (s2)
Inputs Section (s1)
Analysis (Project) (s4)
Waterfall Page (Investor) (s5)
Stochastic Page (s6)
Assumptions Section
Forecast Section
Construction Draw Page (s7)
1. Construction costs (Renovation) in “Uses” 2. IDC (Interest During Construction) in “Uses”
Construction Draw Page (100% Scalable) (cont’d)
Ø Draw Page Ø Purchase Ø Hard Costs Ø Soft Costs Ø Interest During Construction (IDC)
Ø Circular Reference?
Ø Cash In/Cash out Section
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Construction Draw Page (100% Scalable) (cont’d)
Ø Tranche 1 Ø Construction Loan
Ø Loan-to-Value Ø Loan-to-Cost
Ø Tranche 2 Ø Permanent Loan Ø Value Ø Loan-to-Value Ø Date
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Unit Characteristics (“n” Units) (100% Scalable)
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Summary Page
Pro Forma Page (s3)
Amortization Page (s2) Inputs Section (s1)
Analysis (Project) (s4)
Waterfall Page (Investor) (s5)
Stochastic Page (s6)
Assumptions Section
Forecast Section
Construction Draw Page (s7)
Unit Characteristics page (s8)
1. List of “n” units, e.g. one-, two-bedroom 2. Rent Roll 3. Summarized on (S1)
Unit Characteristics (“n” Units) (100% Scalable)
Ø Rent Roll Ø Individual Unit information Ø Input Page (main pro forma)
Ø Summary by unit Ø Studio: 10; Avg SF 800; Avg Rent/SF 2.00 Ø One-Bedroom: 20; Avg SF 950; Avg Rent/SF 2.05
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Portfolio Analysis (100% Applicable!!!)
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Summary Page
Pro Forma Page (s3)
Amortization Page (s2) Inputs Section (s1)
Analysis (Project) (s4)
Waterfall Page (Investor) (s5)
Stochastic Page (s6)
Assumptions Section
Forecast Section
Construction Draw Page (s7)
Unit Characteristics page (s8) Pro Forma 1
(File 1)
Portfolio Input Page (s9)
Portfolio Analysis (100% Applicable!!!)
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Stochastic Page (s6)
Assumptions Section
Forecast Section
Pro Forma 1 Portfolio Input Page
Pro Forma 2
Pro Forma 3
Pro Forma “n”
Consolidated Output for
Portfolio
ULI – Staiger (Upcoming Seminars)
1) Four part 2-hour series: How to build a pro forma model (Current Pro Forma Webinar)
2) Two part 2-hour series: How to develop a waterfall
3) Four part 2-hour series: Advanced Pro Forma Development (Part Deux)
4) Four part 2-hour series: Hotel Pro Forma Design and Development
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Questions?
Let’s Begin (see memorandum for detailed steps of
process at conclusion)