Presidential and Congressional Elections

Presidential and Congressional Elections

November 12, 2007

Voter Turnout

• U.S. turnout in comparative perspective

• Lower for congressional elections than Presidential elections

• Decline in voter turnout

• How low is it? Does it matter?

• The role of age and education

Turnout in Comparative Perspective

See also Fiorina et al. Table 6.1, p.140

Trends in Voter Turnout

Voting is the most common form of political participation

• Many people also talk about politics and try to persuade others to vote

• Very few participate in any other specific way.

The U.S. in Comparative Perspective

Source: Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), Module 2, 2004

Why is voter turnout so low?

• Electoral system

• Voter attitudes

• Lack of convenience

• Difficulty of registration

Options for Electing the President

• Congress chooses the president

• State legislatures choose the president

• President elected by popular vote

• Electoral College

How it works

• Each state was allocated a number of Electors equal to the number of U.S. Senators (always 2) plus the number of U.S. Representatives (which changes)

• The manner of choosing the electors was left to the individual state legislators. By 1836 all states (except for South Carolina) choose electors by popular vote (plurality rules).

• The person with a majority of electoral votes is elected president

• In the event that no candidate wins a majority, the U.S. House of Representatives would choose from the top five contenders. Each state could cast only one vote. An absolute majority is required

2000 Presidential ElectionBush 271; Gore 266(270 needed to win)

Battleground States (2004)Bush 234 Kerry 207

2004 Presidential Election Results

Bush 286 EV (51%)/ Kerry 252 EV (48%)270 EV needed to win

See results by state

A change in Ohio (with 20 electoral votes) would have given Kerry the presidency even though Bush would have received a majority of the popular vote

Unequal Representation

Source: Robert A. Dahl, How Democratic is the American Constitution?

Adjusting for State Population

Plurality Winners by County

Percentage of the vote for parties

The Florida Disaster

• Florida recount (link to Univ. of Chicago study)

• The punch card voting system

• Design of the palm beach ballot

The Butterfly Ballot

Evidence of problems in Palm Beach

2006 Midterm Elections

• Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate for the first time since 1994

• Democrats picked up 28 Seats in House (229 D/196 R)

• Democrats picked up 6 Seats in the Senate (51 D including 2 Independents/49 R)

Forecast in Democratic Seats

Forecast in Republican Seats

Midterm Losses

• President’s party has lost House seats in every postwar midterm election until 1998 and 2002.

• Since the end of WW II, the average midterm seat loss for the president’s party is 24 seats.

• When the president’s approval rating is below 50% the average midterm seat loss is 38 seats.

Presidential Popularity and Congressional Outcomes in the Midterm Elections in a

President’s Second Term

Year President Approval House Senate

1950 Truman 41 -29 -6

1958 Eisenhower 57 -48 -13

1966 Johnson 44 -47 -4

1974 Nixon/Ford 53 -48 -5

1986 Reagan 64 -5 -8

1998 Clinton 65 5 0

2006 Bush 38 -28 -6