The True Results of the 2004 Philippine Presidential Elections based on the NAMFREL T ally By Roberto Verzola published in Kasarinlan (Vol. 19 No. 2) Journal of Third World Studies University of the Philippines
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The True Results of the 2004
Philippine Presidential Electionsbased on the NAMFREL Tally
By Roberto Verzola
published in Kasarinlan (Vol. 19 No. 2)
Journal of Third World Studies
University of the Philippines
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Comparing Congress,
NAMFREL tallies● Congress tally considered complete
– 32.3 million votes counted
– GMA lead over FPJ is 1.1M votes (3.48%)
– Average vote turnout: 149.0 votes per precinct
● NAMFREL tally was 82.98% complete
– 26.4 million votes counted – GMA lead over FPJ is 680,922 votes (2.58%)
– Average vote turnout: 145.2 votes per precinct
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Can we compare the percentages?
● Of course, we can!
● Exit polls and surveys have different numbers of
respondents (1,500 to 5,000), but their percentageresults can be compared to each other and to thefinal election results.
● The NAMFREL database is just an exit poll withmore respondents (26.4 million).
● In Europe and elsewhere, exit polls haveconsistently predicted election winners
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ERs nearer the truth than COCs
● 216,500+ electionreturns (ERs)
● Went thru few hands(precinct level only)
● Unofficial results areless important
●
Open tally by teachersand volunteers morecredible
● Only 177 Certificatesof Canvass
● Went thru precinct,municipal, thenprovincial canvassers
● Cheaters focus on
official results● COMELEC provincial
officials less credible
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Finding #1:
Huge discrepancies existbetween the Congress
and NAMFREL tallies
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Definition of GMA % MarginGMA votes – FPJ votes
-----------------------------------------------
GMA + FPJ + Lacson + Roco + V’nueva
or
GMA Lead
--------------------Total votes
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Table 2. Mga probinsiyang grabe ang dayaan, top 10
Probinsya Kongreso NAMFREL Diperensya
Basilan 22.8% -52.3% 75.1%Sultan Kudarat 36.3% -29.1% 65.4%
Lanao del Sur 46.8% -11.1% 58.0%
Sulu 12.0% -29.3% 41.3%
Tawi-Tawi -18.5% -54.3% 35.9%Maguindanao 48.3% 29.7% 18.7%
Lanao del Norte -2.3% -18.4% 16.2%
Sarangani -13.9% -22.6% 8.7%
Romblon -4.0% -10.4% 6.4%
Zambales -25.3% -29.6% 4.3%
Nota: Sa yellow, nabago ang panalo.
Ang unang 8 probinsiya ay nasa Mindanao.
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Table 1. Lamang ni GMA kay FPJ
Rehiyon Kongreso NAMFREL Diperensya
Mindanao 6.9% -1.5% 8.4%
ARMM 31.3% -19.2% 50.5%C.Mindanao -7.0% -20.5% 13.5%
CAR 13.4% 9.3% 4.1%
N.Mindanao 0.8% -3.0% 3.9%
W.Mindanao 8.6% 4.9% 3.8%CARAGA 24.0% 22.7% 1.3%
S.Mindanao -0.6% -1.2% 0.6%
Nota: Sa yellow, nabago ang panalo
Congress: GMA won in 9 of 16 regions nationwideGMA won in 4 of 6 regions in Mindanao
Namfrel: FPJ won in 4 of 16 regions nationwide
FPJ won in 4 of 6 regions in Mindanao
The 8.4% total discrepancy means around 600,000 votes.
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Table 3. Diperensya sa dami ng boto bawat presinto
Rehiyon Kongreso NAMFREL Diperensya
Pilipinas 149.0 145.2 3.9 837,454
ARMM 153.4 99.8 53.6 307,484
Ilocos 167.7 147.0 20.7 235,563
C.Visayas 151.0 136.7 14.3 236,985
E.Visayas 146.6 138.2 8.3 88,039
C.Minda 140.7 132.9 7.8 70,930
Bicol 152.1 147.3 4.8 58,822C.Valley 153.2 156.8 -3.6 -26,064
Nota: Sa yellow, 10 boto o higit pa ang nadagdag bawat presinto.
Nadagdag
na boto
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Conclusion #1:GMA could not have
won by 1.1 million.
The worst cheatingoccurred in Mindanao.
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Finding #2:The NAMFREL count
tallied pro-GMA regionsmore completely than pro-
FPJ regions, biasing thecount in favor of GMA.
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Consider a hypothetical case
● Candidates A and B evenly matched
● Two electoral regions
–Region 1: Candidate A leads B
–Region 2: Candidate B leads A
● Their leads cancel each other out● In an honest tally, it is a tie all the way
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Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 600 800 1,000
B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000
A's lead, Overall 0 0 0 0 0
Evenly-matched candidates, honest count
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Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 600 800 1,000
B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000
A's lead, Overall 0 0 0 0 0
Evenly-matched candidates, honest count
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Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 600 800 1,000
B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000
A's lead, Overall 0 0 0 0 0
Evenly-matched candidates, honest count
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Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 600 800 1,000
B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000
A's lead, Overall 0 0 0 0 0
Evenly-matched candidates, honest count
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Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 600 800 1,000
B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000
A's lead, Overall 0 0 0 0 0
Evenly-matched candidates, honest count
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Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 600 800 1,000
B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000
A's lead, Overall 0 0 0 0 0
Evenly-matched candidates, honest count
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Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 600 1,000 1,000
B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000
A's lead, Overall 0 0 0 200 0
Evenly-matched candidates, dishonest count
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Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 1,000 1,000 1,000
B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000
A's lead, Overall 0 0 400 200 0
Evenly-matched candidates, dishonest count
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Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 1,000 1,000 1,000
B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000
A's lead, Overall 0 0 400 200 0
Evenly-matched candidates, dishonest count
Aborting the tally at 80% completion
makes A appear to be the winner.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
counted
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's) % done
Votes not
countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610
W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329
CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133
Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182
OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498
E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193
W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611
S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430
Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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Conclusion #2
The NAMFREL count understated
the number of FPJ votes and gaveus a wrong picture of the results.
Thus, the cheating was worse than
what the Congress-NAMFRELdiscrepancies show.
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Can we still get the truth?
Yes, it is possible!
We must reinterpret theNAMFREL database as an exit
poll of 26.4 million respondents,
and correct the disproportional
representation of regions.
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Per region (or province): Known
Unknown
Number of votes tallied
Distribution of votes among candidates
Votes not
tallied
Votes:
Precincts:
Total number of precincts
Number of precincts tallied
Key information!
Precincts
not tallied
Avg. votesper precinct
Estimating the true results of the 2004 elections
Voteturnout
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's)
Votes not
counted
Add'l
Lead
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's)
Votes not
counted
Add'l
Lead
C.Visayas (1,293) -5,992 -61,362 S.Tagalog (924) 635,610 146,304
W.Visayas (757) 490,350 148,215 NCR (290) 1,038,329 159,686
CARAGA (144) 233,300 52,083 C.Minda (129) 569,133 306,157
Bicol (71) 69,318 1,670 C.Valley (112) 246,182 32,953
OAV (47) 0 0 Ilocos (98) 199,165 -10,090
CAR (42) 121,735 -24,892 C.Luzon (70) 793,498 130,356
E.Visayas (42) -50,885 -2,136 ARMM (68) 109,193 77,644
W.Minda (31) 171,417 54,671 N.Minda (39) 203,611 21,690
S.Minda (16) 211,709 68,331
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 168,250 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430 933,030
Final Lead, FPJ 83,858
Table 4. Estimated leads in the votes not counted, one end of the range
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up after
Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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GMA Area
(Lead in 000's)
Votes not
counted
Add'l
Lead
FPJ Area
(Lead in 000's)
Votes not
counted
Add'l
Lead
C.Visayas (1,293) -5,992 -27,220 S.Tagalog (924) 635,610 146,304
W.Visayas (757) 490,350 148,215 NCR (290) 1,038,329 159,686
CARAGA (144) 233,300 52,083 C.Minda (129) 569,133 126,958
Bicol (71) 69,318 1,670 C.Valley (112) 246,182 32,953
OAV (47) 0 0 Ilocos (98) 199,165 -10,090
CAR (42) 121,735 -24,892 C.Luzon (70) 793,498 130,356
E.Visayas (42) -50,885 -2,136 ARMM (68) 109,193 51,017
W.Minda (31) 171,417 54,671 N.Minda (39) 203,611 21,690
S.Minda (16) 211,709 68,331
All GMA Areas 1,029,243 202,391 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430 727,203
Final Lead, GMA 156,110
Table 4. Estimated leads in the votes not counted, other end of the range
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up after
Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.
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Conclusion #3● It was a very close contest.
● Based on NAMFREL's database, either
candidate could have won: GMA by atmost 156,000 or FPJ by at most 84,000.
● These results suggest that to give GMA
a 1.1 million lead, her party had tocheat by 1 to 1.2 million votes.
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Can we get closer to the truth?
Yes!
But we need NAMFREL'sbreakdown of precincts counted
per province for its 83 reports,
which its COMELEC accreditationrequires it to make public.
NAMFREL Reports: The Missing Data
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NAMFREL Reports: The Missing Data
Province
Abra Missing! 90-100%
Agusan del Norte Missing! 50-60%
Agusan del Sur Missing! 70-80%
Aklan Missing! 90-100%... Missing!
Zambales Missing! 70-80%
Zambo del Norte Missing! 50-60%
Zambo del Sur Missing! 90-100%
Zambo Sibugay Missing! 90-100%
National Total 179,564
No. of precincts
tallied
NAMFREL
Report
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A word about sample sizes
● Pollsters’ rule: a random saple size of 2,500 gives an
estimate (of, say, a candidate’s share of the votes) with a3% error margin at a 99.7% confidence level.
●
Square the reduction desired in error margin to get theincrease needed in sample size. For example:
– To reduce the error margin to 1% (i.e., by 3), increase the
sample size 9 times (i.e., to 22,500)
– To reduce the error margin to 0.03% (i.e., by 100), increase thesample size 10,000 times (i.e., to 25 million)
● The NAMFREL database is a sample size of 26.4 million
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Thank you
Roberto Verzola Philippine Greens
0919-608-7073
NAMFREL Tally Completion By Region
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NAMFREL Tally Completion, By Region
Rank
in
lead GMA Area Completion
Votes not
counted FPJ Area Completion
Votes not
counted
1 C.Visayas 91% (101) -5,992 S.Tagalog 88% (88) 635,610
2 W.Visayas 95% (83) 490,350 NCR 75% (74) 1,038,329
3 CARAGA 73% (73) 233,300 C.Minda 51% (52) 569,133
4 Bicol 91% (95) 69,318 C.Valley 82% (82) 246,182
5 OAV 100% (100) 0 Ilocos 83% (88) 199,165
6 CAR 79% (79) 121,735 C.Luzon 80% (80) 793,498
7 E.Visayas 93% (104) -50,885 ARMM 60% (75) 109,193
8 W.Minda 83% (85) 171,417 N.Minda 88% (87) 203,611
9 S.Minda 86% (86) 211,709
Total, GMA Areas 1,029,243 Total, FPJ Areas 4,006,430Note: The completion figures were lifted as-is from the document NAMFREL
chairman Jose Concepcion Jr. distributed at the July 8 BBC conference in Makati. In
parenthesis are my estimates, based on average votes/precinct computed from earlierReport No. 73. Numbers under "Votes not counted" are also my estimates.
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GMA Area
Votes not
counted
(R. #82)
%
counted
(R. #83)
GMA
Lead FPJ Area
Votes not
counted
(R. #82)
%
counted
(R. #83)
FPJ
Lead
C.Visayas 125,509 105% 103,997 S.Tagalog 888,262 28% 58,155
W.Visayas 651,322 25% 48,656 NCR 1,160,189 11% 18,741
CARAGA 278,546 16% 10,101 C.Minda 569,133 0% 0Bicol 118,497 42% 1,185 C.Valley 248,341 1% 289
OAV 0 Ilocos 335,537 41% -6,909
CAR 151,103 19% -6,005 C.Luzon 813,470 2% 3,281
E.Visayas 333,377 115% 16,132 ARMM 169,529 36% -14,649
W.Minda 341,009 50% 54,089 N.Minda 222,677 9% 2,031
S.Minda 217,571 1,892Total 1,999,363 49% 228,155 Total 4,624,709 13% 62,831
NAMFREL Terminal Report (#83): Where the votes came from