Preliminary IAM scenarios based on the RCP/SSP framework Keywan Riahi International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis CCI/IA Workshop 31 July 2013 Snowmass, Colorado
Preliminary IAM scenarios based on the RCP/SSP framework
Keywan Riahi International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
CCI/IA Workshop 31 July 2013
Snowmass, Colorado
The Parallel Process RCPs (Complete)
O’Neill & Schweizer, 2011 (based on Moss et al 2010)
CMIP5 (Complete)
Basic SSPs (Complete)
Under way
Socio-economic challenges for adaptation
Soci
o-ec
onom
ic
chal
leng
es fo
r miti
gatio
n
SSP Framework
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Socio- economic Pathway
Shared Socio- economic Pathway (SSP)
Low Challenges
High Challenges
Intermediate Challenges
Mitigation Challenges Dominate
Adaptation Challenges Dominate
SSP 1
SSP 2
SSP 3
SSP 4
SSP 5
Adapted from O’Neill (2012)
Purpose one: Organizing framework Purpose two: New shared pathways
Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)
Exploration of climate policy dimension Matrix architecture
IAMs: AIM (NIES) GCAM (PNNL) IMAGE (PBL) MESSAGE (IIASA) REMIND (PIK)
Key SSP elements (three main products + IAV variables)
SSP Storylines
Population (age, sex,
mortality, fertility, education)
Urbanization (national)
Economic development (regional/national)
Quantitative drivers
Energy (technology,
resources, etc)
Emissions (forcing,
temperature)
Land-use (productivity,
diets, etc)
IAM Scenarios
1
2 3
Iterative Process
SSP Process • Conceptual framework and nature of basic SSPs established • Quantification of key elements of basic SSPs has been completed • Narratives were refined based on community review (paper needs
still to be submitted) • Preliminary IAM scenarios ready for cross-model comparison and
revisions • Fast-track IAV analyses based on SSPs coming out (ISI-MIP,
AgMIP, etc)
• Work in progress: – Continue vetting and development of SSP IAM scenarios – Define SPAs for refined stabilization analyses – Continue IAV analyses based on SSPs (multi year process)
SSP Driver Quantifications • Country level projections:
– Population • IIASA
– Urbanization • NCAR
– Economy • OECD • IIASA • PIK
• Status: Available and in use by various IAM and IAV comparison projects
Global population for five SSPs
Lutz & KC
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
World 2050
SSP1 Pop=8673 Mio SSP3 Pop=10603 Mio
Lutz & KC
Common interpretation of the SSPs OECD – IIASA - PIK"
10
Frontier TFP growth Speed of convergence
SSP1: Sustainability Medium high High
SSP2: Middle of the road Medium Medium
SSP3: Fragmentation Low Low
SSP4: Inequality Medium Low Income: Low
Middle Income: Medium High Income: Medium
SSP5: Conventional development High High
N.B. Quantitative interpretations and methodology differ between models, illustrating the uncertainties in making economic projections
11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
GDP pe
r cap
its ($/cap
-‐PP
P) SSP5
SSP3
SSP2
SSP4
SSP1
Common interpretation of the SSPs OECD – IIASA - PIK"
Extension of Storylines for IAM modeling (eg assumptions for energy demand)
• Similar tables for tech change of supply, resource availability, and land-use change
Socio-economic challenges for adaptation
Soci
o-ec
onom
ic
chal
leng
es fo
r miti
gatio
n
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100E
J0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Primary Energy
SSP3 IMAGE
SSP5 REMIND
SSP2 MESSAGE
SSP4 AIM SSP1
GCAM
RCP CO2 Emissions, World (Fossil fuels and Industry)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(GtC
O2)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
RCP 8.5
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(GtC
O2)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AIM/CGE GCAM IMAGE MESSAGE-GLOBIOM REMIND-MAGPIE SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
SSP5
SSP3
SSP2
SSP4, SSP1
CO2 Emissions, World (Fossil fuels and Industry)
Total Radiative Forcing
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Forc
ing
(W/m
2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
AIM/CGE GCAM IMAGE MESSAGE-GLOBIOM REMIND-MAGPIE SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
SSP5 = 9-9.5 W/m2
SSP3, SSP2
SSP4 SSP1
CO2 Emissions, World (Fossil fuels and Industry)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(GtC
O2)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2.6 W/m2
SSP range for short-lived forces wider than RCPs Example: SO2 emissions
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Sul
fur e
mis
sion
s (M
tSO
2)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
SSP5
SSP3
SSP2
SSP1
SSP4
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Sul
fur e
mis
sion
s (M
tSO
2)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
4.5 W/m2
Climate mitigation co-benefits across all SSPs Example: SO2 emissions
Little difference between SSPs for 2.6 W/m2 Example: SO2 emissions
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Sul
fur e
mis
sion
s (M
tSO
2)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2.6 W/m2
Land-use and Land-cover change Cropland development: RCPs vs SSPs
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Cro
plan
d, m
illio
n ha
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
AIM/CGE GCAM IMAGE MESSAGE-GLOBIOM REMIND-MAGPIE SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
SSP IAM scenarios – next steps • Improve consistency with storylines • Harmonization across major variables (develop clear-cut
definitions) • Define SPAs (climate policy dimension) • Identify marker scenarios • Organize hand-off to different communities and develop
guidelines for SSP users (eg, plausible RCP/SSP combinations)
• Publication: Special Issue of Global Environmental Change
SSP database: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb
International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios (ICONICS)
http://www.isp.ucar.edu/iconics
Additional Slides
Inequality across models Global GINI
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
IIASA
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
Country Groupings • For defining these scenarios we distinguish
among three groups of countries: • High Fertility Countries (HiFert): Countries
with current level of fertility less than 2.9 children per woman (2005-2010).
• Low Fertility Countries (LoFert) Countries with current level of fertility less than or equal to 2.9 not belonging to Rich OECD countries (see below)
• High Income-OECD Countries (Rich-OECD) As per the definition of World Bank.
Education Scenarios • The fast track (FT) scenario is extremely ambitious; it assumes that
all countries expand their school systems at the fastest possible rate, which would be comparable with best performers in the past such as Singapore and South Korea .
• The global education trend (GET) scenario is more moderately optimistic and assumes that countries will follow the average path of school expansion that other countries already somewhat further advanced in this process have experienced.
• The constant enrollment rate (CER) scenario assumes that countries only keep the proportions of cohorts attending school constant at current levels.
• The most pessimistic scenario, constant enrollment numbers (CEN), assumes that no more schools at all are being built and that the absolute number of students is kept constant, which under conditions of population growth means declining enrollment rates.
PEI / CI Improvement SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
AIM/CGe GCAM IMAGE MESSAGE-‐GLOBIOM REMIND-‐MAGPIE
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
carbon intensity improvement
(prim
ary) ene
rgy intensity
improvem
ent
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
carbon intensity improvement
(prim
ary) ene
rgy intensity
improvem
ent
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
AIM/CGe GCAM IMAGE MESSAGE-‐GLOBIOM REMIND-‐MAGPIE
PEI / CI Improvement
Global Primary Energy -‐ SSP5 REMIND-‐MAGPIE
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Global Primary Energy -‐ IMAGE SSP3
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Global Primary Energy -‐ AIM/CGE SSP4-‐Ref-‐SPA0-‐V1
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Global Primary Energy - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2-Ref-SPA0-V1
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Global Primary Energy – SSP1 GCAM
0
2E+14
4E+14
6E+14
8E+14
1E+15
1.2E+15
1.4E+15
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
GDP: World (OECD projection)
SSP1new SSP2new SSP3new SSP4new SSP5new
Global GDP levels by scenario (OECD)
Source: preliminary SSP database
SSP5>SSP1>SSP2>SSP4>SSP3
35
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
SSP -‐ Per Capita GDP (billion US$2005PPP / million people)
SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ World SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ WorldSSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ World SSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ WorldSSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World SSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
SSP -‐ Per Capita GDP (billion US$2005PPP / million people)
SSP1 -‐ IIASA -‐ World SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ WorldSSP1 -‐ PIK -‐ World SSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ WorldSSP1 -‐ OECD -‐ World SSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
SSP -‐ Per Capita GDP (billion US$2005PPP / million people)
SSP3 -‐ IIASA -‐ World SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ WorldSSP3 -‐ PIK -‐ World SSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ WorldSSP3 -‐ OECD -‐ World SSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
SSP -‐ Per Capita GDP (billion US$2005PPP / million people)
SSP4 -‐ IIASA -‐ World SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ WorldSSP4 -‐ PIK -‐ World SSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ WorldSSP4 -‐ OECD -‐ World SSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
SSP -‐ Per Capita GDP (billion US$2005PPP / million people)
SSP5 -‐ IIASA -‐ World SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ WorldSSP5 -‐ PIK -‐ World SSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ WorldSSP5 -‐ OECD -‐ World SSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World
Global GDP levels by scenario
Source: preliminary SSP database 36
Global Primary Energy – SSP2 AIM
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
EJ
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Population assumptions consistent with SSP Storylines
Low challenges for adaptation
High challenges for adaptation
China - population for five SSPs
Lutz & KC
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
Urbanization Projection Results
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
% u
rban
pop
ulat
ion
Year
Western Europe
Latin America
China
Eastern Africa
SSP1
Fast
SSP2
Central
SSP3
Slow
SSP4
Fast/Central
SSP5
Fast
Source: O’Neill & Jiang, NCAR
CO2 Emissions, World (Fossil fuels and Industry)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(GtC
O2)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
4.5 W/m2