Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 @LaBlogga [email protected]www.melanieswan.com July 19, 2011 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Live Prediction Markets Simulation Futures & Forecasting - Quantitative Methods Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/ SU GPS for the Mind: www.mindtimemaps.com/start/sugp SU Prediction Market: gsp11.inklingmarkets.com
Prediction markets are a tool for collecting and aggregating opinion using market principles. Enterprise prediction markets are in use in 100-200 large organizations for project management and revenue forecasting. Public prediction markets are used for event prediction (election results, product sales, box office receipts).
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July 19, 2011Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga
Live Prediction Markets Simulation
Futures & Forecasting - Quantitative Methods
Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/
SU GPS for the Mind: www.mindtimemaps.com/start/sugp SU Prediction Market: gsp11.inklingmarkets.com
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Prediction MarketsJuly 19, 2011
Workshop timeline
Quantitative methods introduction 10 min GPS for the Mind exercise 5 min Prediction markets lecture 25 min Estimation exercise 10 min Live prediction markets workshop 90 min
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Prediction MarketsJuly 19, 2011
About Melanie Swan
Hedge fund manager, futurist, entrepreneur, founder DIYgenomics
Work experience: Fidelity, JP Morgan, Arthur Andersen, iPass, RHK/Ovum
Education: MBA Finance, Wharton; BA French/Economics, Georgetown Univ
Current projects: melanieswan.com Sample publications
Swan, M. Multigenic Condition Risk Assessment in Direct-to-Consumer Genomic Services. Genet. Med. 2010, May;12(5):279-88.
Swan, M. Translational antiaging research. Rejuvenation Res. 2010, Feb;13(1):115-7.
Swan, M. Engineering Life into Technology: the Application of Complexity Theory to a Potential Phase Transition of Intelligence. Symmetry 2010, 2, 150:183.
Swan, M. Emerging patient-driven health care models: an examination of health social networks, consumer personalized medicine and quantified self-tracking. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2009, 2, 492-525.
Source: http://melanieswan.com/publications.htm
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Prediction MarketsJuly 19, 2011
Forecasting and future studies toolkit
Short term (0-5 yrs): insight and certainty Forecasting Scanning Business intelligence Trend analysis Market research Time orientation Outlier identification Technology checklist
Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity Scenario planning Simulation Frameworks Wild-carding Longitudinal studies
Multiple time frames Prediction markets Image: Bill Frymire
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Prediction MarketsJuly 19, 2011
GPS for the Mind exercise
Plot time orientation: certainty, possibility, probability www.mindtimemaps.com/start/sugp
Image: http://www.mindtime.com
Source: Fortunato, VJ and Furey, JT. The theory of MindTime: The relationships between Future, Past, and Present thinking and psychological well-being and distress. Personality and Individual Differences. January 2011, 50(1), pp. 20-4. http://www.miindtime.com
certainty possibility
probability
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Prediction MarketsJuly 19, 2011
Prediction markets definition
Images: http://www.intrade.com
Prediction markets are a tool for collecting group opinion using market principles
Research has shown that prediction markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts1
1Source: Trepte, K. et al. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets. MIT. 2009. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/53546
Value: leading indicator, expose hidden information
Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect
Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting1
1Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877
Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 US Democratic Convention Market
Real-time polling – automatic alerts for opinion entry per interest profile
Enterprise prediction markets BOL / ERP / supply chain integration Sales and CRM integration
Reputation: knowledge acuity ratings of individuals become a valuable and personally-tradable currency Accurate predictor, information steward
Image:http://www.tvrage.com/shows/id-23464
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Prediction MarketsJuly 19, 2011
Broader context: markets are the platform
Types of markets Resource allocation
Exchange: supply &
demand meet
Information (price)
discovery
Value identification & attribution
Utility creation
Traditional markets Prediction markets Affinity capital Multicurrency society Automatic markets Ideas marketplaces Scarcity management / abundance injection (PSE)
Roles of markets
Source: Swan, M. New Banks, New Currencies and New Markets in a Multicurrency World: Roadmap for a Post-Scarcity Economy by 2050, presented at Create Futures IberoAmérica, Enthusiasmo Cultural, São Paolo Brazil, October 14, 2009. http://melanieswan.com/documents/economy_20.pdf