Pre-sowing of crops (wheat, Mustard and chickpea) for

Pre-sowing Price Forecast of Rabicrops (wheat, Mustard and chickpea)

forRabi Sowing Season ZOL}-ZO

Department of Agricultural EconomicsJawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwa

Vidyalaya ,Iabalpur20Lg

Pre-Sowing Rabi 2019-20 Price Forecast for Rapeseed-Mustard

Pre-Sowing Rabi 2019-20 PriceForecast for Rapeseed-M ustardDr. P.K. Awasthi and Mr. Gourav Kumar Vani

. Thu Oct 31 15.27.18 2019.

1. Commodity: Rapeseed-Mustard

2. Types of Forecasts" Pre-sowing Rabi price forecast3. Selection of market: Morena (Based on maximum arrivals)4. Data collection period: Jan 2003 to Oct 20195. Forecast techniques: ARIMA, Neural Network, ExponentialTime series smoothing (ETS),

Robust-ETS(ROBETS), Theta method

Time Series plot of monthly average price of Rapeseed in Morena District

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The data for this analysis was collected from Agmarknet website for APMCs of Morena districts

(Kailaras, Morena and Jora) of Madhya Pradesh. The data collected pertains to Rapeseed-

Mustard crop and period starting from January,2003 till2019, October. Using R software and

spreadhsheet, following forecasting output was obtained.

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I Jsers/AEFM JNKVV/Desktop/Market lnte lliqencc Project/Mustard_-Pre_Sowing.html 1t3

:_'9 Pre-sowing Rabi 2019-20 Price Forecast for Rapeseed-Mustard

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## Apr 2OL9

## May 2019

## )un 2Ot9

## lul 2O19

## In-sample MAPE(% Er^r or^)

## Aug 2O19

## Sep 201-9

## Oct ?-0L9

## 0ut-sample IYAPE(% Error")## Feb 2O2O

## Mar 2O2O

## Apr 2O2O

Act ua 1

3347 .293395.313615 .093663.30

o.oo3700.873644.063140.24

[email protected]

ARIMA

31,62 .463394.1-4

339s.613745.94

3.523642.353642.353642.35

L.423169.233769.233769.23

ETS

3342.643410.283447 .493752.A7

3. 35

367 4 .473651-.26

3659.23L.O3!

3431".63

3466.333535.93

THETA

3340.5L3430.763435.763764.04

3.243695.123692.533-t29.5t

o.593463.813438.1,1,

3507.42

NNETAR

3186.363425.253443.783764.45

3.323655.593657.873664.38

7.2L3774.683771".39

3770.99

ROBETS

3579.423407.863371.313694.50

3.693686.763697.943726.29

o.74374L.493631-.37

3457.92

To examine the predictive accuracy multivariate Diabold Marino test was conducted the reuslts of

which are provided below.

## ####ttlt##llll lt#ii11,11ffitf1t/+#########1f######################

## Models with outstanding pnedictive ability:##

## Ranl< S Mean loss## E \ -A .45),5 89 .9606## T 88.5544##

## p-value: 0.5374##

## Number o{ e,timinated models: 3

## ######nn#####1t######################################

Among all the methods examined Exponential Time Series Smoothing method has best predictive

ability. Therefore the forecast made on the basis of this method should be preferred. However, for

comparison purpose, forecast for next three months are provided for all methods presented in the

table. Followrng output provides the range of prices within which actual market prices of

Rapeseed-Mustard in Morena district may prevail.

## Point Forecast## Nov 2019 3800.6L0## Dec 2019 3720.171

## Jan )O2o 3482.764

## teb 2O?,o 343I.62-7

## l{ar 2@20 3466.328## Apr 2A?O 3535.933

Lo 99

3322.9873A51.5662106.5L02538.2012445.8802382.950

Hi 99

4278.2324389.9774259.O194325.0534486.7754688.916

From the abovc table, it is clear that average market price likely to prevail in the month of

November will be Rs. 3800.61 within a price range of Rs. 3322.99 lo 4278.23.1n the month of

December, average price likely to prevail will be Rs.3720.77 within a price range of Rs. 3051.57 to

4389.98. ln Jarruary 2020, average monthly price forecasted is Rs. 3482.76 with expected price

ragne of Rs. 2706.51 to 4259.02.

:.:-:, :=FM JNKVV/Desktopi Markct lntcliiqcnce Project/Mustard--Pre-Sowing html ltJ

h,t Pre-Sowing Rabi 2019-20 Price Forecast for Rapeseed-Mustard

Cautionary Note:The Pl and Co-Pl of the project has following word of caution while using the above forecast:

1. The forecast provided above is probabilistic in nature, meaning that it is not certain thattheprice forecasted will prevail in the market with certainty.

2. The validity of the forecast made is upto the correctness of the secondary data available.

3. The Pl and Co-Pl of the project does not assume any responsibility for any loss accruing to

the intended user of the project. r

4. Tne intended user/stakeholder in the market, while using the forecast made, ought to use

his knowledge and experience in making final decision regarding sale/purchase of the

commodity in question.

IC:r--terJAEFM JNKVV/Desklop/Market lntelliqence Project/Mustard-Pre-Sowing.html

-.i..: Pre-Sowing Rabi 2019-20 Price Forecast for Chickpea/Gram

Pre-Sowing Rabi 2019-20 PriceForecast for Ch ickpe al GramDr. P.K. Awasthi and Mr. Gourav Kumar Vani

Thu Oct 31 16.20.24 2019.

1. Commodity: ChickpealGram ,

2. Types of Forecasts: Pre-sowing Rabi price forecast

3. Selection of market: Vidisha (Based on maximum arrivals)

4. Data collection period: Jan 2003 to Oct 2019

5. Forecast techniques: ARIMA, Neural Network, Exponential Time series smoothing (ETS),

Robust-ETS(ROBETS), Theta method

Time Series plot of monthly average price of Chickpea in Vidisha District

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Time

The data for this analysis was collected from Agmarknet website for APMCs of Vidisha districts

(Ganjbasoda, Kurwai and Vidisha) of Madhya Pradesh. The data collected pertains to Chickpea

crop and period starting from January,2003 till 2019, October. Using R software and

spreadhsheet, following forecasting output was obtained.

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lril* - '-- AEFM JNKwDesktop/Market lntelligence ProjecVchickpea*Pre_Sowing.html 1t3

- :: ': Pre-Sowing Rabi 2019-20 Price Forecast for Chickpea/Gram

##

## Apr 2019

## May 2Ot9

## Jun 2OL9

## ful 20L9

## Aug 2OI9

## Sep 2019

## Oct 2019

## In-sample MAPE(% Er"r^or ) O.OO 6.70 6.61 6.53 4.6L 6.82

Actua] ARIMA ETS THETA NNETAR ROBETS

3956.29 3558.51 361,2.90 3651.45 3747.94 [email protected]

[email protected] 40]-7.93 3935.62 4052.77 4091.55 3916.224226.59 4096.37 4076.75 4056.37 4089.49 4064.93

3954.41- 4246.78 4217.57 4364.87 4240.97 [email protected]

3924.89 3909.LO 3970.25 4011..57 394L.34 3985.45

3798.2s 3909.1-O 3970.25 4L87.48 4096.81 3985.453899.00 3909.L0 3970.25 41.07.07 4268.44 3985.45

## Out-sample MAPE(% Err"or^) O.OO 1".L9 2.5O 5.93 5.92 2-9O

## Feb 2A2O

## lqar 2O2A

## Apr 2O2O

o.oo 3917.71- 3893.40 3481..85 3669.33 3985.45o.oo 3917 .71 3893.40 3584.s7 3740.1-2 3985.45o.oo 39!7.11" 3893.40 3665.91. 3793.86 3985.45


rvhich are provided below.

## ####################1t############f ############# #####

## l,'lodels with outstanding predictive ability:##

## Ranl< S Mean loss##A 3 0.2L01 223.97@2

## E 1. L.670L 222.4636## N 2 - 1- .'7 1.OO t19 . 5021,

## R 225.5552ff

## p-va1ue'. O.91L2##

## Number of eliminated models: 1

## ######tt#####,+lf #######r+#####################f########




table. Following output provides the range of prices within which actual market prices of Chickpea

in Vidisha district may prevail.

## Point Fonecast Lo 99 Hi 99

## Nov 2019 3893.404 2946.980 4839.828

## Dec 2-O1"9 3893 .4O4 259L.9LO 51"94. 898

## Jan 20)O 3893.4O4 23L2.792 5474.01-5

## Feb 2O2o 3893.404 2074.309 57L2.499

## Mar 2O2O 3893.404 L862.084 5924.723

## Apr 2O2O 3893.404 1668.581 6LL8.227

From the above table, it is clear that average market price likely to prevail in the month of

November will be Rs. 3893.4 within a price range of Rs. 2946.98 to 4839.83. ln the month of

December, average price likely to prevail will be Rs. 3893.4 within a price range of Rs. 2591.91 to

! - -.:.s/AEFM JNKVV/Desktop/Market lntelliqence Project/chickpea-Pre-Sowing.html

r,an"! Pre-Sowing Rabi 2019-20 Price Forecast for Chickpea/Gram

5194.9. ln January 2020,average monthly price forecasted is Rs.3893.4 with expected priceragne of Rs. 2312.79 to 5474.02.


1 . The forecast provided above is probabilistic in nature, meaning that it is not certain that theprice forecasted will prevail in the market with certainty"

2. Thevalidity of the forecast made is upto the .orrJ"tn".. of the secondary data available.

3. The Pl and Co-Pl of the project does not assume any responsibility for any loss accruing tothe intended user of the project.

4. The intended user/stakeholder in the market, while using the forecast made, ought to usehis knowledge and experience in making final decision regarding sale/purchase of thecommodity in question.

tr. -sers/AEFM JNKWDesklop/Market lntelligence ProjecUchickpea_Pre_Sowing.html 3/3

_f" :Pre-Sowing Rabi 2019-20 price Forecaste for Wheal crop

Pre-sowing Rabi 2o1g-20 PriceForecaste for Wheat cropDr. P.K. Awasthi and Mr. Gourav Kumar Vani.Tue Nov 26 13.15.29 2O1g

1. Commodity: Wheat2. Types of Forecasts: pre_sowing Rabi price forecast3. selection of market: Hoshangabad/rtarsi (Based on maximum arrivars)4. Data collection period: Jan 2003 to Oct 201g5' Forecast techniques: ARIMA, Neural Network, Exponential rime series smoothing (ETS),

Robust-ETS (ROBETS), Theta method

Time Series plot of monthly average price of Wheat in Hoshangabad District2arlt -

The data for this analysis was collected from Agmarknet website for ApMCs for Hoshangabaddistricts of Madhya Pradesh" The data collected pertains to wheat crop and period starting fromJan 2003 till oct 2019' Using R software and spreadhsheet, following forecasting output wasobtained.

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ers/AEFM JNKVVIDesktop/Market rnteiligence project/wheat_pre_sowing.htmrJ

##

## Apr 2@19

## May 2@t9

## )un 201-9

## )ul 20L9

## Aug 2019

## Sep 2019

## Oct 2OL9

## In-sample MAPE (% Error) O.OO 3.11 2.94 2.98 3.22 3.22

Pre-Sowing Rabi 2019-20 Price Forecaste for Wheat crop

Actua] AR]MA ETS THETA NNETAR ROBETS

1"800.43 1868.61 L850.07 L832.95 1851.25 l-860. 56

L825.01. 1808.99 t841,.99 1843.s8 1805.97 t802.291"857 .48 1.818.44 1780.69 1737 .O3 L827 .41 L820.33

1.882.37 1863 . 96 7904.3.3 l-933 . 33 1854. 58 1853 . 90

[email protected] 1891.16 1875.75 187L.69 1875.76 1881.30'J,985 .60 1898.06 1908.80 1907 .76 1869.35 1882.862026.60 1.902.03 1.903.60 L890.L4 L864.0L 1884.tO

## Out-sample MAPE(% Enror^) O.OO 5.56 ,5.61, 5.91 6.92 6.27## Feb 2O2a

## Nlar 2O2O

## Apr 2@20

o . ao 2052 .83 207 0 .2-t 207 6 . 43 1-91-0. 92 188 5 . 10

o.oo 206a.66 2062.77 2030.49 L898.24 1885.89o.ao 2051,.24 20s2.10 2005.28 1888.46 1886.53


which are provided below.

## #,###################s################################# Models with outstanding predictive ability:##

## Ranl< S Mean loss##E L-L.5129 36.42L8## N 3 0.6489 39.4767##T 2-0.2857 37.6777## R 38.5354

## p-va1ue'. O.9956

## Numben of eliminated models: 1

## ####################################################




table. Following output provides the range of prices within which actual market prices of wheat in

Hoshangabad district may prevail.

:r# Point Forecast Lo 99 Hi 99

## Nov 2019 2073.579 1827 .181. 23L9.378## Dec 2019 2062.770 1134.L49 2391,.390

## Jan 2O2O 208]- .404 1685.335 2477.473

From the above table, it is clear that average market price likely to prevail in the month of

November will be Rs. 2073.58 within a price range of Rs. 1827.781o 2319.38. ln the month of

December, average price likely to prevail will be Rs.2062.77 within a price range of Rs. 1734.151o

2391.39. ln January 2O2O,average monthly priceforecasted is Rs.2081.4with expected price

ragne of Rs. 1685.33 lo 2477 .47 .

- Users/AEFM JNKVV/Desktop/Market lntelligence Project/wheat_Pre_Sowing.html lt-1

iE"; Pre-Sowing Rabi 2019-20 Price Forecaste for Wheat crop


1. The forecast provided above is probabilistic in nature, meaning that it is not certain that theprice forecasted will prevail in the market with certainty.

2. The validity of the forecast made is upto the correctness of the secondary data available.

3. The Pl and Co-Pl of the project does not assume any responsibility for any loss accruing tothe intended user of the project. '

4' The intended user/stakeholder in the market, while using the forecast made, ought to usehis knowledge and experience in making final decision regarding sale/purchase of thecommodity in question.

/Users/AEFM JNKVV/Desktop/Market lntelligence project/wheat_pre_sowing.html3/3

Pre-sowing of crops (wheat, Mustard and chickpea) for

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