Potentials and barriers to recycling in the current CDM framework Bonn, 9 June 2011 Bernhard Gerstmayr Tobias Koch
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Potentials and barriers to recycling in the current CDM framework
Bonn, 9 June 2011
Bernhard GerstmayrTobias Koch
10.06.2011 Slide 2
Agenda
bifa in a briefPotentials of sustainable waste managementBarriers to sustainable waste management within the
current CDM and approaches to improvements! AMS III.AJ (recycling methodology)! The FOD model! AM 0025
10.06.2011 Slide 3
bifa in a brief
City of AugsburgFederal State of Bavaria Chamber of Industry and Commerce of Swabia
! Founded in 1991
! Long-standing expertise in wastemanagement
! Shareholders:
10.06.2011 Slide 4
The three activitity areas of bifa
EngineeringProcess
engineering(mechanical, biolo-
gical, thermal, chemical)
(Specialized) Analytics and test
procedures
Machinery & plant design
ConsultationManagement
Politicalconsultation
Communication
System analysis
IT Information
systems
Databases
Internet applications
bifa environmental institute
10.06.2011 Slide 5
References: How does bifa support modern MSW management in the context of UNFCCC?
Scientific publicationGuide for wastemanagement companieson behalf of the German Ministry for theEnvironment
on behalf of the German Gesellschaft für InternationaleZusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
in cooperation with Tobias Koch
NAMA proposalMethane prevention throughsustainable biowastetreatment in Tunisia (on theinternet: http://www.jiko-bmu.de/service/download/doc/994.php)
10.06.2011 Slide 6
Agenda
bifa in a briefPotentials of sustainable waste managementBarriers to sustainable waste management within the
current CDM and approaches to improvements! AMS III.AJ (recycling methodology)! the FOD model! within AM 0025
10.06.2011 Slide 7
Greenhousegas emissions of waste management systems
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
Compostingwithout useas fertilizer
Composting& Fe
Recycling
Composting+ Waste to energy
Waste Incinerator
Landfill(with landfillgas flaring)
unmanaged
dump site
CO
2eq
uiva
lent
in k
g pe
r ton
nes
of w
aste
Source: bifa environmental instituteBalancing period: 50 years
Source: bifa environmental institute
LCAs for different ways of disposal
� Landfillgas CDM can only avoid less then 50% of GHG emissions
Baseline
It�s the organic content
MBT
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
2.200
2.400
2.600
2.800
3.000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Organic Carbon Content in %
Emiss
ion
redu
ctio
npo
tent
ial i
n kg
CO 2
e pe
r Ton
ne w
aste
Waste Incineration Plant
Landfill withLandfilll gas utilization
10.06.2011 Slide 9
Emissions of waste worldwide (cf. UNEP study �Waste and Climate Change. Global Trends and Strategy Framework�)
! waste sector �in a strong position to move from being an emissionssource to being a major emissions saver�
! average annual per capita waste generation in developing countries is rising in response to economic and population growth
! levels of uncertainty can be as high as 10-30 per cent for developedcountries (with good data sets) to more than 60 per cent fordeveloping countries that do not have annual data.
Source: www.unep.or.jp/Ietc/Publications/spc/Waste&ClimateChange/Waste&ClimateChange.pdf
Carbon finance essential for making waste treatment feasible
��composting has the distinction of being the waste management system with the largest number of failed facilities worldwide. In cities of developing countries, most large mixed-waste compost plants, often designed by foreign consultants and paid for by aid from their home countries, have failed or operate at less than 30% of capacity. The problems most often cited for the failures of composting include: high operation and management costs, high transportation costs, poor quality product as a result of poor pre-sorting (especially of plastic and glass fragments), poor understanding of the composting process, and competition from chemical fertilizers (which are often subsidized)�Sound Practices Composting,1.4.1, www.unep.or.jp/ietc/estdir/pub/msw/sp/sp4/sp4_1.asp
" MSW treatment projects highly additional" Landfills are least cost alternative
10.06.2011 Slide 10
10.06.2011 Slide 11
Study �Climate protection potentials in waste management� of IFEU and Öko-Institut 2010 on behalf of BMU, UBA and BDE
! By abandoning landfilling and initiating recycling management the national GHG emissions could be reduced in 2020 by:! up to 10 % (Mexico) *! up to 13 % (Turkey)! up to 16 % (Tunisia)
! For comparison, the proportion of waste and sewage on the GHG inventory compared to UNFCCC:! 10 % (Mexico, 2002) *! 8,6 % (Turkey, 2007)! 3,6 % (Tunisia, 1994)
*) The reason for these values being equal is not clearly described in the study.
The study can be downloaded from: www.bmu.de/abfallwirtschaft/abfallpolitik/abfall_und_klimaschutz/doc/45515.php
Enormous potential of waste treatment !
10.06.2011 Slide 12
Agenda
bifa in a briefPotentials of sustainable waste managementBarriers to sustainable waste management within the
current CDM and approaches to improvements! AMS III.AJ (recycling methodology)! the FOD model! AM 0025
10.06.2011 Slide 13
The Polyethylene recycling methodologyAMS III.AJ
! Approved in 26. March 2010! Restricted to HDPE and LDPE only,
other materials to be included! bifa the only stakeholder to
comment the proposed methodology in early 2010
! Version 02 of the Methodology picks up some of the remaining critics after approval of version 01 (e.g. max. 200 km distance)
#
AMS III.AJ − issues that require a better solutionBoundaries
" Neglects a big share of the GHG reduction potential of PE recycling for reasons of conservativeness:
! transportation! raw feedstock extraction of the primary resource
AMS III.AJ − issues that require a better solutionMonitoring
To avoid double-counting the methodology requires to observe the PE market three years in advance of the activity:
! PE from Annex I countries $ no CER (since it is then an Annex I reduction)
! � ----------� from Non-Annex I countries $ CER
$Yet there is no practical guidance available on how to conduct such a monitoring
$Especially in LDC�s it will proof very difficult
Proposal: Referring to world market statistics forHDPE production:
10.06.2011 Slide 16
Waste Management: AM0025 � a failure?
Waste Management: AM0025
! 54 projects using AM 0025 under validation (partly already for several years)
! 41 of these are composting projects
! 17 are registered (some 4 years ago)
! 0 CERs issued so far
Source: IGES CDM database 5 -2011
10.06.2011 Slide 17
Agenda
bifa in a briefPotentials of sustainable waste managementBarriers to sustainable waste management within the
current CDM and approaches to improvements! AMS III.AJ (recycling methodology)! the FOD model! AM 0025
10.06.2011 Slide 18
Comparison of scientific models for Methan generation
CO2e durch Methanbildung
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Jahre
Emis
sion
en [t
CO
2e] p
ro J
ahr b
ei g
leic
hble
iben
den
Lief
erun
gen
FOD-Modell boreal naß
Tabasaran & Rettenberger (bifa-Modell)
Schweizer Modell
Weber wet
CO2 eq per ton of MSWt C
O2
eqpe
r ton
of M
SW
Years
-80.000
-70.000
-60.000
-50.000
-40.000
-30.000
-20.000
-10.000
0
10.000
20.0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Year of project activityE
mis
sion
spe
r yea
rin
t CO
2e
Baseline methane boreal arid Leakage Operations,logistics
Resulting emission reductions
CER issuance over time
10.06.2011 Slide 20
crediting period A
nnua
l rat
e of
em
issi
ons
and
emis
sion
redu
ctio
n in
t C
O2
acco
rdin
g to
UN
FCC
met
hodo
logy
AM
0025
V11
Emissions from current operations
Emission reduction assessed for
Composting and the �post-mortem� problem −here: project ending after 7 years with no more waste being disposed afterwards
Emission reduction not assessed for
-80.000
-70.000
-60.000
-50.000
-40.000
-30.000
-20.000
-10.000
0
10.000
20.0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Waste composting facility with 50,000 tonnes of municipal waste per year
Landfill gas � baseline FOD Model
Emissions from residuals on the landfills
During the projectactivity
obtained CER:120.836 tCO2e
= 32%
After the projectactivity
expired CER:256.271 tCO2e
= 68%
10.06.2011 Slide 21
Emission avoidance of MSW management in comparison to energy saving lamps
MSW treatment Energy EfficiencyInvestment Upfront UpfrontActivity of project operator
Upfront Usage of the lamp for several years
Deemed Emission avoidance
At time of waste being processed
During usage
Potential for loss None(as emission is avoided instantly)
When equipment malfunctions or ceases to exist
Monitoring when? Moment of MSW elimination
During lifetime of the lamp
" Sustainable waste treatment eliminates the source of emissions at one! No later leakage etc.!
Sustainability factors could represent the positive list
10.06.2011 Slide 23
Agenda
bifa in a briefPotentials of sustainable waste managementBarriers to sustainable waste management within the
current CDM and approaches to improvements! AMS III.AJ (recycling methodology )! the FOD model! AM 0025
Barriers to successful Implementation of waste treatment
! Complexity of Methodology
! Multiphase approach deprives investors of earnings in the first years and creates windfall profits in later years
! Required data difficult to obtain
! Methodology incomplete & more than 20 errors and mistakes
! Involvement of municipalities early in the project cycle �contractual problems
! Very difficult to validate /difficult to find DOE
! Nearly impossible to be verified
! Very risky technology �no market for products
" Sustainable waste treatment projects are not bankable!
10.06.2011 Slide 24
10.06.2011 Slide 25
Monitoring of AM 0025 � high degree of complexity
10.06.2011 Slide 25
Picture shows monitoring plan only for option composting with biogas for auto generation of power."46 Parameters have to be monitored
10.06.2011 Slide 26
Problems with monitoring of AM 0025 from practice
! Sampling of waste consistency requires 250 samples per year
! Oxygen deficit measurement in compost can be manipulated limitless without trace
! Emissions from compost transport by informal sector can not be monitored
! Potential emissions from recyclables outside project boundary can not be controlled
! �Safety Flare� monitoring totally out of scale
" Monitoring requirements surpass by far abilities of project participants in developing countries
10.06.2011 Slide 26
10.06.2011 Slide 27
AM 0025 now � Summary
! 12 Versions � Still more than 20 errors
! Baseline model error up to 60% (literature!)
! Multiphase model unjust (cf. part Gerstmayr)
! Perverse incentives to increase emissions
! Emission reductions form recycling and compost usage not accounted
! Penalties for utilization of recyclables or compost
! Complexity overstrains projects developers, DOEs, etc.
! More than 50% calculation error in registered projects
! Validation takes years, verification is nearly impossible.
! Projects are hardly bankable.
" Simple degassing is far more attractive within the CDM
10.06.2011 Slide 27
10.06.2011 Slide 28
Reform of AM0025 - Target
! Create simplified methodology for composting and waste sorting/recycling
! Provide default values for fast validation and allow real life ex-post measurement
! No desincentive of for usage of recyclables
! Limit excess sampling
! Remove excess parameters
! Create simple monitoring plan
! Enable DOE to validate and verify quickly
"Enhance environmental integrity
10.06.2011 Slide 28
10.06.2011 Slide 29
Proposed changes in baseline calculation
! Increase conservativeness of correction factor φfrom 0.9 to 0.5 .
! OX =1 (always)
! MCF =1 (future development - not past)
! Include missing discount for water content of waste for using DOCj �dry� values.
! k = 1 (no shifting of CER into the future)
10.06.2011 Slide 29
Factor for humidity missing
10.06.2011 Slide 30
Deemed reductions after
project period(>50%)
K=1
Effect of changing factor φ from 0.9 to 0.5
✂
✂
Fixing the Baseline without multiphase approach
Amount of CERs with factor φ 0.5
10.06.2011 Slide 31
Proposed changes in monitoring of AM 0025 (1)
! General deduction of 50 % for baseline error would cover all possible changes in the future as well as leakages and small emission sources.
! Demand humidity measurement with DOCj= dry to reduce model errorEx-Post measurement of dry weight of waste fractions is not problematic and allows adjustment to all climatic zones and waste collection systems
! MCF has to look into the future and not at past for waste management to avoid perverse incentives
10.06.2011 Slide 31
10.06.2011 Slide 32
Proposed changes in monitoring of AM 0025 (2)
! Reduce number of waste samples to max 12 per year.
! Allow sampling of waste streams after sorting.
! No leakage for transport of waste or recycables
! No monitoring of safety flares (only gas volume)
! For windrow oxygen deficit and waste water just let DOE monitor good practice
! Encourage recycling! No emission penalties for offsite usage
! Allow participation of informal sector
10.06.2011 Slide 32
10.06.2011 Slide 33
Revision of AM0025 � some final wishes
! Please start revision right now and have stakeholders included within the revision process
! Putting methodology on hold would hit those hard that are have been in the process of project appraisal for several years
! Putting methodology on hold would stop waste disposal in many cities � danger for pubic health!
! Terminate multiphase approach!
! Allow ex-post adjustment for existing projects to avoid failure during verification
" Please mind DEC 2012 deadline!
10.06.2011 Slide 33
10.06.2011 Slide 3410.06.2011 Folie 34
Contacts
Thank you very much!
Bernhard Gerstmayr, M. Sc.Project Managere-mail: [email protected]. ++ 49 8217000198
Tobias KochBalderrie Energiese-mail: [email protected]. ++49 1717557480
Annex: DOCj values in the methane tool
" �% dry waste� is misleading language � �dry weight of waste� would be correct
Annex: DOCj values stated in IPCC
"DOCj dry values have to be adjusted with % of waste humidity at disposal site
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