PotashCorp.com Q3 2015 Conference Call October 29, 2015
PotashCorp.com
Q3 2015 Conference CallOctober 29, 2015
This presentation contains “forward-looking statements" (within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) or “forward-looking information”(within the meaning of appropriate Canadian securities legislation) that relate to future events or our future performance. These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as “should,” “could,” “expect,” “may,”“anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions as set forth in this document, including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates. While we consider these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; risks and uncertainties related to operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve, including mine and inventory shutdowns; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; failure to prevent or respond to a major safety incident; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; catastrophic events or malicious acts, including terrorism; changes in currency and exchange rates; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; our prospects to reinvest capital in strategic opportunities and acquisitions; our ownership of non-controlling equity interests in other companies; the impact of further technological innovation; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; security risks related to our information technology systems; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; timing and impact of capital expenditures; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; certain complications that may arise in our mining process, including water inflows; our ability to attract, retain, develop and engage skilled employees; risks related to reputational loss; earnings; and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in more detail under the headings “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Results and Operations and Financial Condition” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014 and in other documents and reports subsequently filed by us with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as of the date hereof and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this release, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Forward-looking Statements
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Performance
Third-Quarter and Other 2015 Highlights
• Earnings of $0.34 per share1; nine-month total of $1.28 per share
- Includes $0.03 per share related to notable non-cash charges, primarily in phosphate
• Preparing for Penobsquis closure by end of November
• Planning three-week inventory shutdowns at Allan, Cory and Lanigan in December
• Market value of investments approximately $4 billion, or $5 per PotashCorp share2
1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 As of market close on October 28, 2015
Source: PotashCorp
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Weaker Nitrogen Earnings Compared to Prior Year
Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison
Q3 2014
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q3 2015
0
150
300
450
600
750
$589
$505-$1-$72 -$11
Gross Margin - US$ Millions
Potash• Lower realizations compared to Q3 2014, particularly in
North America
• Stronger offshore volumes offset by weakness in North America due to slower customer engagement
• Lower costs due to weaker Canadian dollar and deferral of maintenance expenditures to Q4 2015
Nitrogen• Weaker realizations primarily driven by lower energy
costs and increased supply in key producing regions
• Lower volumes primarily due to planned turnaround at Lima and weaker US demand
Phosphate• Higher realizations primarily reflecting higher netbacks for
liquid fertilizer products
• Higher costs given maintenance expenditures, negative ARO adjustment and other period costs
Source: PotashCorp
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Strategy and Outlook
Brazil Indonesia China US India
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
GDP Growth Rate
Source: IMF, Bloomberg
2015E vs 3-Yr Avg (% Change)
Emerging Market Uncertainty and Weaker Ag Environment Create Headwinds
Macroeconomic Factors
Brazil Indonesia India China
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
FX Change vs USD
Corn Sugar Soybeans Wheat Palm Oil
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Crop Price Changes
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Macroeconomic uncertainty significant contributor to fertilizer market challenges in 2015As at October 27, 2015
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
F-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500 Return over operating and land costs
US$/Acre
Lower Returns but Levels Remain Supportive
Farmer Returns a Key Driver of Potash Consumption
Source: USDA, IMEA, Conab, PotashCorp
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
F*0
50100150200250300350400450500550600 Return over operating and land costs
Reals/AcreUS Corn Brazil Soybean
* 2015F represents the 2015/16 Brazilian crop year.
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Despite macroeconomic pressures, farmer returns on key crops in most growing regions remain at supportive levels
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
F20
17F
2019
F20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000Potash Consumption Crop Production
Potash Consumption – Million Tonnes KCl Equivalent
Crop Production a Key Driver of Potash Consumption
Crop Production – Million Tonnes
Crop Production Growth Expected to Underpin Potash Growth
Source: Fertecon, CRU, FAO, PotashCorp
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Crop production growth has historically been less sensitive to macroeconomic factors
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
F20
16F20
17F20
18F20
19F20
20F
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 Shipments Shipment Range~70
Million Tonnes KCl
Strong Potash Consumption Drivers Support Our Long-term Growth Potential
Global Potash Demand
2.6% CAGR
Longer-term growth expected between 2.5% and 3.0%; in line with historical trend; assumes a moderated, less volatile pricing
environment
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Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
F
2016
F
2017
F
2018
F
2019
F
2020
F0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Shipments Shipment Range Global Operational Capability*
Million Tonnes KCl
Supply/Demand Balance Expected to be Similar to Historical Levels
Global Potash Supply and Demand
Excess operational capability over next 5 years expected to be consistent with prior periods
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Incremental Supply Estimates
(2015-2020F)Region Operational
CapabilityNorth
America* +6.0 – 7.0mmt
FSU +3.0 – 4.0mmt
China +0.8 – 1.0mmt
Other Regions -1.0 – 1.2 mmt
Total ~10.0 mmt
* Estimated annual achievable production level from existing operations; announced probable and possible projects; assuming typical ramp-up periods for new capacity. Probable and possible projects based on PotashCorp’s view of project probabilities.
Cash From Operations Supports Both Dividend and Sustaining Capex
PotashCorp Cash Flow From Operations Sensitivity*
Source: PotashCorp
$200 $250 $300 $350 0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Q3 2015
Maint. CAPEX (2017+) Dividend
US$ - Billions
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Average Realized Potash Price
* Estimate assumes potash sales volumes of 10mmt, FX at 1.30 CAD per USD; nitrogen/phosphate earnings, SG&A, finance costs, freight rates and other income in line with 2015E. Does not include working capital changes.
Dividend ~$1.2B
Maint. Capex~$0.7B
2015 Guidance*
Full Year
• Earnings per share: $1.55-$1.65
• Potash gross margin: $1.4-$1.5B
• Potash sales volumes: 9.0-9.2 million tonnes
• Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin: $1.0-$1.1B
• Capital expenditures**: ~$1.2B
Source: PotashCorp
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* Guidance as at October 29, 2015** Does not include capitalized interest
2015 Guidance*
Full Year
• Annual effective tax rate: 26-28 percent
• Provincial mining and other taxes: 21-23 percent of total potash gross margin
• Income from offshore investments**: $165-$175M
• Selling and administrative expenses: $245-$250M
• Finance costs: $190-$200M
• Annual FX Assumption: $1.26 CDN$ / US$
• Annual EPS sensitivity to FX: US$ strengthens vs. CDN$ by $0.02 = +$0.01 to EPS
* Guidance as at October 29, 2015** Represents share of earnings in equity-accounted investees and dividend income from available-for-sale investments
Source: PotashCorp
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