Population Growth- Impact on the MDGs Baige Zhao, Ph.D. Vice minister National Population & Family Planning Commission, China 5 June 2006, UK Hearing.

Population Growth- Impact on the MDGs

Baige Zhao, Ph.D.Vice minister

National Population & Family Planning Commission, China

5 June 2006, UK Hearing

New Approach of the Chinese Government

• Shift from population control to human development

• Shift from simply paying concerns to population quantity to solving the population issue as a whole

• Strategy: promote economic development, keep the low fertility rate (replacement level), improve population quality in terms of health and education, improve population structure, promote rational population migration, safeguard population safety, and promote the overall development of the human beings.

Concept of Human Development

• Human development refers to the expansion of people’s capabilities and choices to lead lives they value.

• Human development advocates for people’s freedom to choose the lives they want, enhancing freedom is ultimately the goal of human development, the means to achieve it, and its guarantee for sustainability.

• The supreme goal of human development is achieved through the “two-C” concept of development: the common development of all members of society and the comprehensive development of each individual.

• Mobilizing public enthusiasm for participating in social and economic advancement—rather than passively accepting development’s results—is therefore a linchpin of the “human-oriented” approach to development.

A society’s achievements in human development are measured by the human development index (HDI), a weighed index of three measures:

1) Life expectancy; 2) Level of education (measured by a combination of literacy rates and combined primary, secondary, and tertiary school enrollment ratios); 3) Level of economic development (measured by GDP per capita).

Indicator of Human Development

Changes in China’s Human Development Index (HDI)

Source: Based on data from the UNDP, 2003; 2005.

Changes in National, Urban & Rural HDIs, 1990-2002

Source: China Human Development Report 2005

Changes in China’s Total Fertility Rate

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1980 1990 2000

Source: China Population and Family Planning Data Manual 2004

Demographics (1990-2003) 1990 1995 2003

Population, total (000,000) 1,143.3 1,211.2 1,292.3

Total Fertility Rate 2.25 1.85 1.80

Birth Defects / 100,000 Live Births N.A. 8.7 13.0

Population by Age 65+ (%) 5.6 6.7 7.0

Sex Ratio at Birth 111.3 115.6 117.0

Floating Population (000,000) N.A. N.A. 140

Proportion on Urban Population 26.4 29.0 40.5

Resource: UN Country Team in China

Indicators of Economic Development (1990-2003) 1990 1995 2003

Decadal Average Annual Growth Rate

of GDP Per Capita (%)

9.0 (1984-

1993)

8.0 (1994-

2003)

GNP Per Capita (RMB) 1,627 4,767 9,023

Per Capita Disposable Income

of Urban Residents (RMB)

1,510

4,283

8,472

Per Capita Net Income of Rural

Residents (RMB)

686

1,578

2,622

Public Expenditure on Social,Cultural

& Educational Development (%)

4.0

3.0

5.5

Resource: UN Country Team in China

Trends in per Capita Income Changes of Urban and Rural Residents 1990-2003(at variable prices)

Source: China Human Development Report 2005

Number of Rural Poor

Public Expenditure on Education (100 Million RMB, Current Prices, 1978-

2001)

Source: China Human Development Report 2005

Government Budget on Health expenditure

Source: China Human Development Report 2005

Indicators of Human and Social Development in China

Items/ Year 1990 2003

Human Development Index 0.627 0.755

Life Expectation at Birth 68.6 71.4

MMR (100,000) 88.9 51.3

IMR (‰) 50.2 25.5

Adult Literacy Rate (%) 77.7 89.1

Literacy Rate of 15-24 Year Old(%) 94.7 98.6

Source: Common Country Assessment 2004, Country Team in China

China’s Millennium Development Goals

China’s Millennium Development Goals(continued)

• Population growth do has its impact on MDG. China’s population program has helped to achieve the sustainability. When population growth slows down, economy development quickens and HDI improves.

• Rational population growth enhance the human capital development and HDI improvement.

• China--- a country with the largest population shifts to a country with the largest human capitals

Conclusion