IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability Ispra - Italy http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ Joint Research Centre (JRC) JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 1 POMI EMISSION INVENTORY
Feb 02, 2016
IES - Institute for Environment and SustainabilityIspra - Italy
http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 1
POMI EMISSION INVENTORY
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 2
1. Checked the procedure followed for the preparation of the emission inventory base case
IES - Institute for Environment and SustainabilityIspra - Italy
http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 3
NAZIONAL EMISSION INVENTORY
EMISSIONIGRIGLIATE
REGIONAL EMISSION INVENTORY (INEMAR)UNECE/EMEP
Urban road Italia
+ EMEP su griglia nazioni confinanti
Land use/sector assignation profiles
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Co
nti
nu
ou
s
urb
an
fa
bri
cD
isc
on
tin
uo
us
urb
an
fa
bri
cIn
du
str
ial
or
co
mm
erc
ial
Ro
ad
an
d r
ail
ne
two
rks
an
d
Air
po
rts
Min
era
l
ex
tra
cti
on
Du
mp
sit
es
Co
ns
tru
cti
on
sit
es
Gre
en
urb
an
are
as
Sp
ort
an
d
leis
ure
No
n-i
rrig
ate
d
ara
ble
la
nd
Ric
e f
ield
s
Vin
ey
ard
s
Oli
ve
gro
ve
s
Pa
stu
res
An
nu
al
cro
ps
as
so
cia
ted
Co
mp
lex
cu
ltiv
ati
on
La
nd
pri
nc
ipa
lly
Bro
ad
-le
av
ed
fore
st
Co
nif
ero
us
fore
st
Mix
ed
fo
res
t
Na
tura
l
gra
ss
lan
ds
Mo
ors
an
d
he
ath
lan
dT
ran
sit
ion
al
wo
od
lan
d-
Be
ac
he
s,
du
ne
s,
sa
nd
s
Ba
re r
oc
ks
Sp
ars
ely
ve
ge
tate
dIn
lan
d
ma
rsh
es
Wa
ter
co
urs
es
Wa
ter
bo
die
s
Land Use
Weights Industry(1/3/4)Resid.Combustion (2)Fossile Comb. (5/6)trasp (7)Off-Road Transport (8)Waste manag. (9)Agriculture (10)Nature (11)
PROXY DB
INPUT FOR MODELERS
Linear PointAreal
Areal+ LinearPoint sourcesArea
+ linear+ point
Land use + Profiles IMPRESAREO
RDBMS
Highway +Extraurban road
without coordinate
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 4
2. Intercomparison within regional/national PM10 emission inventory
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
Com
bust
ion
in
ener
gy a
nd
tran
sfor
mat
ion
indu
stry
Non
-ind
ustr
ial
com
bust
ion
plan
ts
Com
bust
ion
in
man
ufac
turi
ng
indu
stry
Pro
duct
ion
proc
esse
s
Ext
ract
ion
and
dist
ribu
tion
of
foss
il fu
els
Sol
vent
and
othe
r pr
oduc
t
use
Roa
d tr
ansp
ort
Oth
er m
obile
sour
ces
and
mac
hine
ry
Was
te tr
atm
ent
and
disp
osal
Agr
icul
ture
Oth
er s
ourc
es
and
sink
s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
t y-1
APAT
INEMAR
ISPRA (ex APAT)
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 5
2. Intercomparison within regional/national NOX emission inventory
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
90.000
100.000
Co
mb
ust
ion
in
ener
gy
an
d
tran
sfo
rmat
ion
ind
ust
ry
No
n-i
nd
ust
rial
com
bu
stio
n
pla
nts
Co
mb
ust
ion
in
man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
ind
ust
ry
Pro
du
ctio
n
pro
cess
es
Ex
trac
tio
n a
nd
dis
trib
uti
on
of
foss
il f
uel
s
So
lven
t an
d
oth
er p
rod
uct
use
Ro
ad t
ran
spo
rt
Oth
er m
ob
ile
sou
rces
an
d
mac
hin
ery
Was
te
trat
men
t an
d
dis
po
sal
Ag
ricu
ltu
re
Oth
er s
ou
rces
and
sin
ks
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
t y-1
APAT
INEMAR
ISPRA (ex APAT)
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 6
2. Intercomparison within regional/national emission inventory
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
SO2 NOx NMVOC CH4 CO CO2 N2O NH3 PM2.5 PM10
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 7
2. Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory (regions providing the complete INEMAR)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
SO2 NOx COV CO NH3 PM10 PM2.5
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 8
2. Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
SO2 NOx COV CO NH3 PM10 PM2.5
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 9
2. Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory - PM10
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1-P
rod
uzio
ne
en
erg
ia e
tra
sfo
rm. co
mb
ustib
ili
2-C
om
bu
stio
ne
no
n
ind
ustr
iale
3-C
om
bu
stio
ne
ne
ll'in
du
str
ia
4-P
roce
ssi p
rod
uttiv
i
5-E
str
azio
ne
e
dis
trib
uzio
ne
co
mb
ustib
ili
6-U
so
di so
lve
nti
7-T
rasp
ort
o s
u s
tra
da
8-A
ltre
so
rge
nti m
ob
ili e
ma
cch
ina
ri
9-T
ratta
me
nto
e
sm
altim
en
to r
ifiu
ti
10
-Ag
rico
ltu
ra
11
-Altre
so
rge
nti e
asso
rbim
en
ti
t y-1
ISPRA (EX APAT)
POMI
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 10
2. Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory - NOx
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,0001
-Pro
du
zio
ne
en
erg
ia e
tra
sfo
rm. c
om
bu
stib
ili
2-C
om
bu
stio
ne
no
nin
du
stri
ale
3-C
om
bu
stio
ne
ne
ll'in
du
stri
a
4-P
roce
ssi p
rod
utti
vi
5-E
stra
zio
ne
ed
istr
ibu
zio
ne
co
mb
ust
ibili
6-U
so d
i so
lve
nti
7-T
rasp
ort
o s
u s
tra
da
8-A
ltre
so
rge
nti
mo
bili
em
acc
hin
ari
9-T
ratta
me
nto
esm
alti
me
nto
rifi
uti
10
-Ag
rico
ltura
11
-Altr
e s
org
en
ti e
ass
orb
ime
nti
SNAP
t y-1
ISPRA (EX APAT)
POMI
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 11
3. Which are the main sources of PM ?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
SO2 NOx COV CH4 CO CO2 N2O NH3 PM2.5 PM10
Combustion and energy transformation industry Non industrial combustion plants
Industrial combustion plants Production process
Extraction and distribution of fossil fuel Solvent
Road transport Other mobile source machinery
Waste treatment and disposal Agriculture
Other sources
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PM2.5 PM10 TSP SO2 NOx NMVOC CO CO2 eq
no fuel
others
fuel oil
natural gas
wood
kerosene
LPG
gasoil
refinery gas
diesel
coal
gasoline
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 12
C.A.T.I. (Computer AidedTelephone
Interview) for 18.085 families
3.1 Residential wood combustion?
Activity data Emission factors? Temporal profile
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 13
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Berga
mo
Bresc
ia
Como
Crem
ona
Lecc
oLo
di
Man
tova
Mila
noPav
ia
Sondr
io
Vares
e
2008 2005
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Berga
mo
Bresc
ia
Como
Crem
ona
Lecc
oLo
di
Man
tova
Mila
noPav
ia
Sondr
io
Vares
e
aver
age
2005
Mila
n 20
05
Traditional fireplace Traditional stove, close fireplace Innovative stove BAT
3.1 Residential wood combustion?
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 14
3.1 Residential wood combustion?
Activity data Emission factors
PM
?Temporal profile
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Camino aperto Stufa tradizionale Camino chiuso o inserto Stufa o caldaia innovativa Sistema BAT a legna ostufa pellets; sistema BAT
pelletsTraditional
fireplace
Traditional
stove
Close fireplace
Innovativestove
BAT0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Camino tradizionale Stufa tradizionale camino chiuso Stufa innovativa BAT
INEMAR GUIDEBOOK IIASA
Traditional
fireplaceTraditional
stove
Close fireplace
Innovativestove
BAT
INEMAR GUIDEBOOK IIASAPM NOx VOC
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 15
Other mobile source machinery
Road transport
Extraction and distribution of fossil
fuelProduction process
Industrial combustion plants
Non industrial combustion plants
Other sources
Combustion and energy
transformation industryAgriculture
Waste treatment and disposal
PM Emission inventory
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 16
3.1 Residential wood combustion?
Activity data Emission factors
Temporal profile?
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 17
Fuel consumption for areal traffic
Linear traffic
Copert IV (E.F.)
Linear traffic emissions
Fuel sold
Fuel consumption
factors
Fuel used
Copert IV (E.F.)
Urban traffic emissions
3.2 Road transport?
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 18
Emission considering or not the gradient of the street for different vehicle load
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
LP 100
LP 50
3.2 Road transport?
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 19
Applied a different methodology for estimating emission from road transport sectors (ARTEMIS/HBEFA)
Considering the so-called go-trough trafficAnalisi di incertezza aggiornata sui fattori di
emissione COPERT IV
Still ongoing…
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 20
PM10
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%
roughness length (Z0 * 5)
Wind intensity (W/2)
Nudged meteo
WB seasonal reallocation (VOC-PM)
WB emission factor (VOC-PM)
S7 emission factor (VOC-Nox-PM)
32-64 bit compiler
WB temporal distribution
Impact of NH3 emissions
Impact of S2 emissions
Impact of traffic
Impact of all Surf. Sources
Impact of all sources
Impact of Traffic & heating
Mean Lomb
Bormio
Ispra
Milan
POMI domain
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 21
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SO2 NOx COV CO NH3 PM10 PM2.5
Produzione energia e trasformazione combustibili Combustione non industriale Combustione nell'industria
Processi produttivi Estrazione e distribuzione combustibili Uso di solventi
Trasporto su strada Altre sorgenti mobili e macchinari Trattamento e smaltimento rifiuti
Agricoltura Altre sorgenti e assorbimenti
POMI domain
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 22
POMI domain
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SO2 NOx COV CO NH3 PM10 PM2.5
puntuali diffuse lineare
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 23
Base Case Isoprene emissions
LIMITO - O3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
26/6 27/6 28/6 29/6 30/6 1/7
pp
b
Measured pa_0.1_hkv pa_0.1_hkv_nobgRE_SLAZZ - O3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
26/6 27/6 28/6 29/6 30/6 1/7
pp
b
Measured pa_0.1_hkv pa_0.1_hkv_nobg
MANDRIA - O3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
26/6 27/6 28/6 29/6 30/6 1/7
pp
b
Measured pa_0.1_hkv pa_0.1_hkv_nobg
2005cle
2005cle_nobiog
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 24
Base Case
Isoprene emissionsBVOC – Po valley domain
- Italian emission inventory: 200 kton/y
- MEGAN estimate: 700 kton/yPOMI domain - average VOC emissions (12 - 30 June 2005)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
NO
NO
2
AL
D2
AL
DX
CH
4
ET
H
ET
HA
ET
OH
FO
RM
IOL
E
ISO
P
ME
OH
OL
E
PA
R
TE
RP
TO
L
XY
L
NH
3
SO
2
mo
l/ce
ll
All
Biogenic
Anthrop
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 25
Grazie per l’attenzione!
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 27
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 28
2012 CLE
RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 29
RAINS-Europe Model is Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation, developed by IIASA, which has been officially used
for the negotiations in the context of both the Gothenburg protocol and the 2001/81/EC Directive (NEC Directive).
RAINS/GAINS
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 30
HARMONISATION
CLE SCENARIO
RAINS – IT
ENERGY
MARKAL (MARKET
ALLOCATION) is model of
optimization of the energy
system
Industry
Based on national statistics,
projections of economic activity
and non-energy macro-economic
factors such as GDP
Control strategyIt takes into account the existing
legislation0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2005 2010 2015 2020
SO2 NOX PM10 PM2.5 NH3 COV
Regional level
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 31
2012 CLE
RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT
Harmonization
CLE Scenario
Energy
Productive Activities
Control strategies
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 32
Emission scenario - 2012 CLE (Current LEgislation)
4 kinds of source emissions:
Diffused emission
SNAP02 – Non industrial combustion plants
Road Transport
Point sources
2012 CLE – Lombardy region
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 33
Emission scenario - 2012 CLE (Current LEgislation)
4 kinds of source emissions:
Diffused emission
SNAP02 – Non industrial combustion plants
Road Transport
Point sources
2012 CLE – Lombardy region
Interpolation of RAINS DATA 2005-2010-2015
PAE – regional energy plan
Technological scenario and fuels consumption scenario
Provided by ARPA Lombardia
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 34
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
NOx COV PM10 PM2.5
2005
2012 CLE
2012 CLE – Lombardy region
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 35
2012 CLE
RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT
Harmonization
CLE Scenario
Energy
Productive Activities
Control strategies
Base case
CLE Scenario
PAE –regional energy plan
Road transport trends
Rains for diffused emission
IES - Institute for Environment and SustainabilityIspra - Italy
http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 36
Emission scenario
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 37
Europe Po-Valley Lombardy
2005 BC2005 BC1 2005 BC1
2005 BC2 (emissions Temp fac.+met) 2005 BC2
2012 CLE
2012 CLE
2012 CLE
2012 AQP
2012 CES
2012 MFR
2012 MFR 2012 MFR
2012 CLE (Po traff & Inemar 2007) ?
2012 CLE (Lombardy background) ?
2012 CLE (Meteorology 2)
2012 CLE (Bound. Cond. CHIMERE)
2012 CLE (Po backg)
2015 CLE 2015 CLE (AQP?) 2015 AQP
2020 CLE2020 CLE (AQP?)
2020 AQP
2020 CES
2020 MFR 2020 MFR
2 5 7 9 7 7 7 8 7 7 7
CHIMERE – EMEP – CAMx – RCG -- AURORA
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 38
2012 (CLE & AQP)
RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT or PLAN
Harmonization
CLE Scenario
Energy
Productive Activities
Control strategies
Air quality measures
AQP
Base case
CLE Scenario
PAE –regional energy plan
Road transport trends
Rains for area emission
Air quality measures
AQP
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 39
2012 AQP – Lombardy region
1 HDVs, LDVsReplacement of all the LDV < Euro 3 with Euro 5, equipped with particulate filter, and
of all HDV < Euro 3 with Euro 5, equipped with particulate filter
2 Passenger cars Replacement of all the diesel and gasoline PCs < Euro 3
3 Mopeds and motrocycle Replacement of all the mopeds and motorcycles Euro 1 and Euro 2 two strokes.
4 LPG & CNG Increase of the LPG & CNG stations and increase of the public incentives for LPG &
CNG sells
5 biodiesel Increase of the use of biodisel
6Improvements in the railways
sector Increase of the number of trains circulatin in Lombardy region
7Improvements in the pubblic
transport sector Increase of the service offered by the tranposrt public system of the Mina area
8Improvements in the pubblic
transport sector Euro 0 buses will be replaced by newer one (Euro 4 or 5) and particulate filter will be
added
9 Pollution chargeMilano municipality has applided a pollution charge area : decrease of 130.000
vehicles circualting in the city
D.G. Qualità dell'Ambiente - Struttura Protezione Aria
SCENARIO 2012
TRASPO
RT
MEASURES DESCRIPTIONN.
a. TRANSPORT
TECHNOLOGICAL
FUEL
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
POLLUTION CHARGE
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 40
2012 AQP – Lombardy region
b. ENERGY
10 Heating system diffusion of the CNG 11 Energy certification of buildings energy certification of buildings for new building or recostruction12 Pubblic lighting system renewal of pubblic lighting system with newer tecnology 13 Heating accounting system increase of the heating accounting system for apartement block14 Electrical Domestic Equipment increase of GREEN electrical accounting equipment15 MSW electricity from municipal solid waste16 biogas biogas from municipal solid waste21 District heating22 Biomass
23 Solar panel
26 Photovoltaic generator
27 Eolic energy
28 Hydropower
Renewable energy
N. MEASURES DESCRIPTION
EN
ERG
IA
EFFICIENCY
RENEWABLE
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 41
2015/2020 (CLE & AQP)
RAINS - IT
Harmonization
CLE Scenario
Energy
Productive Activities
Control strategies
Air quality measures
AQP
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 42
As soon as possible….
2012 AQP
2015 CLE
2015 AQP
2020 CLE
2020 AQP
2012 CLE (Lombardy background) ? 2012 CLE (Po traff & Inemar 2007) ? MFR will be realized for RIAT. It will be used for POMI too in order to guarantee the
consistency POMI/RIAT (availability of their data)
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 43
Thank you for your attention !
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 44
2012 AQP – Lombardy region
1 HDVs, LDVsReplacement of all the LDV < Euro 3 with Euro 5, equipped with particulate filter, and
of all HDV < Euro 3 with Euro 5, equipped with particulate filter
2 Passenger cars Replacement of all the diesel and gasoline PCs < Euro 3
3 Mopeds and motrocycle Replacement of all the mopeds and motorcycles Euro 1 and Euro 2 two strokes.
4 LPG & CNG Increase of the LPG & CNG stations and increase of the public incentives for LPG &
CNG sells
5 biodiesel Increase of the use of biodisel
6Improvements in the railways
sector Increase of the number of trains circulatin in Lombardy region
7Improvements in the pubblic
transport sector Increase of the service offered by the tranposrt public system of the Mina area
8Improvements in the pubblic
transport sector Euro 0 buses will be replaced by newer one (Euro 4 or 5) and particulate filter will be
added
9 Pollution chargeMilano municipality has applided a pollution charge area : decrease of 130.000
vehicles circualting in the city
D.G. Qualità dell'Ambiente - Struttura Protezione Aria
SCENARIO 2012
TRASPO
RT
MEASURES DESCRIPTIONN.
a. TRANSPORT
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 45
Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario
2012 AQP – Lombardy region
FE2012CLE
Definition of the fleet composition for the year 2012
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 46
Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario
2012 AQP – Lombardy region
FE2012CLE
Definition of the fleet composition for the year 2012Definition of the vehicle mileage for each euro category in 2012
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Conventional Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV EuroV
Vehicle number Mileage
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 47
Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario
2012 AQP – Lombardy region
FE2012CLE
Definition of the fleet composition for the year 2012Definition of the vehicle mileage for each euro category in 2012Definition of an average emission factor for the LDV sector, weighted
using mileage and vehicle number - CLE scenario
LDV < 3.5 t diesel Conventional 342 2165 171 76984 9,113LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro I 131 1330 171 53736 15,991LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro II 131 1330 171 57676 19,843LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro III 104 1105 112 90280 22,361LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro IV 71 893 42 125865 23,300LDV < 3.5 t diesel EuroV 31 643 42 157490 23,488CLE- average EF 151 1,358 146
Sector Fuel Euro category Vehicle numberPM10
[mg/km/veh]NOx
[mg/km/veh]COV
[mg/km/veh]Mileage
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 48
Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario
Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - AQP scenario (all pre EURO 3 vehicles replaced by EURO V)
2012 AQP – Lombardy region
FE2012CLE
FE2012AQP
LDV < 3.5 t diesel Conventional 342 2165 171 76984 9,113LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro I 131 1330 171 53736 15,991LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro II 131 1330 171 57676 19,843LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro III 104 1105 112 90280 22,361LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro IV 71 893 42 125865 23,300LDV < 3.5 t diesel EuroV 31 643 42 157490 23,488CLE- average EF 151 1,358 146AQP - average EF 31 643 42
MileageSector Fuel Euro category Vehicle numberPM10
[mg/km/veh]NOx
[mg/km/veh]COV
[mg/km/veh]
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 49
Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario
Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - AQP scenario (all pre EURO 3 vehicles converted to EURO V)
Estimation of the contribution of the pre EURO 3 vehicle to the total LDV transport emission
2012 AQP – Lombardy region
FE2012CLE
FE2012AQP
ELDV,<EURO3
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 50
Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario
Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - AQP scenario (all pre EURO 3 vehicles converted to EURO V)
Estimation of the contribution of the pre EURO 3 vehicle to the total LDV transport emission
Calculation of emission variation
2012 AQP – Lombardy region
FE2012CLE
FE2012AQP
ELDV,<EURO3
ELDV, AQP = ELDV,<EURO3 *FE2012AQP/FE2012CLE
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 51
Preliminary results
PM10 NOx COV
-61% -36% -68%
2012 AQP – Lombardy region
PM10 NOx COV PM10 NOx COV PM10 NOx COVPC gasoline 7 2,535 1,633 40 3,286 2,283 16.5% 77.1% 71.5%PC diesel 234 3,772 216 655 17,448 898 35.7% 21.6% 24.1%PC CNG (0) (107) (17) - 22 7 0.0% -474.2% -232.8%PC LPG (0) (64) (37) - 347 227 0.0% -18.4% -16.5%
LDV diesel 264 1,872 247 556 9,664 758 47.4% 19.4% 32.6%HDV diesel 884 18,005 1,931 1,085 39,757 2,313 81.5% 45.3% 83.5%
MOPEDS gasoline 259 (88) 18,593 344 329 23,231 75.4% -26.7% 80.0%MOTORCYCLE gasoline 40 (25) 2,885 75 791 5,280 53.6% -3.2% 54.6%EVAPORATIVE gasoline - - 3,635 - - 4,405 0.0% 0.0% 82.5%
% Reduction[%]
Emission reduction[t/year]
2012 CLE emission[t/year]
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 52
2012 CLE – Po Valley
Emission inventory 2005
for all the regions of the Po
Valley
(last version – july 2008)
RAINS CLE
2005-2010-2015
SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5,
COV, NH3
Linear interpolation
INEMAR 2012 CLE
macrosectors
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 53
2012 CLE – Po Valley
RAINS
SNAP NOMENCLAURE
Interpolation
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
2005
2010
2015
2020
yea
r
NOx [kt/year]
Combustion in energy and transformation energy Non-industrial combustion plantsCombustion in the manufacturing industry Production processesRoad transport Other mobile sources and machinery Waste treatment and disposal
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
2005
2010
2012
2015
2020
ye
ar
NOx [kt/year]
Combustion in energy and transformation energy Non-industrial combustion plants
Combustion in the manufacturing industry Production processes
Road transport Other mobile sources and machinery
Waste treatment and disposal
2012/2005
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 54
2012 AQP – PO valley
RAINS
AQP
2005-2010-2015
SNAP NOMENCLAURE
AQP: 2010AQP-2010CLE
2012AQP: 2012CLE + AQP -14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Non industrial combustion Transport
Non industrial combustion -5.7% -5.7% -5.8% -5.7% -5.6%
Transport -3.8% -8.8% -9.4% -12.8% -3.1%
SO2 NOX PM10 PM2.5 COV
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 55
OPEN issue…to discuss
Emission inventory:
• 2008 INEMAR for all the regions of the Po Valley
• Different traffic emission model (ARTEMIS vs COPERT)
• Transport model for the entire Po Valley
Emission scenario PoValley Lombardy
1 2005 BC 2005 BC
2 2012 CLE 2012CLE (RL)
3 2012 AQP 2012 AQP (RL)
4 2012 CLE 2012 AQP (RL)
5 2012 MFR (RAINS) 2012 MFR (RAINS)
6 2015 CLE (RAINS) 2015 CLE (RL)
7 2015 MFR (RAINS) 2015MFR (RAINS)
8 2020 CLE (RAINS) 2020 CLE (RAINS)
9 2020 MFR (RAINS) 2020 MFR (RAINS)
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 58
Diffused emissions
INEMAR 2005
RAINS CLE
(2005-2010-2015)
SO2, NOx, PM10, COV, NH3
Data interpolation
INEMAR 2012 CLE
classification
2012 CLE – Lombardy region
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 59
Area emissions
INEMAR 2005
RAINS CLE
(2005-2010-2015)
SO2, NOx, PM10, COV, NH3
Data interpolation
INEMAR 2012 CLE
classification
2012 CLE – Lombardy region
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2005 2012 2005 2012 2005 2012 2005 2012 2005 2012
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM10
Em
issi
on
i [t/
yea
r]
3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 60
Non industrial combustion plants
PAE – regional plan
for energy policy
INEMAR 2005
Emission
FactorsE2012 I,C,S = E2005I,C,S * FCAC *FCFES
2012 CLE – Lombardy region
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
gas naturale gasolio enafta
olio comb. gpl biomassa gas naturale gasolio enafta
Civile Agricoltura
Consu
mo [
tep]
2004 2005 2010 2012 2015
CNG GAS OIL FUEL OIL GPL BIOMASS CNG OILFUEL
HEATING AGRICOLTURE
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 61
Non industrial combustion plants
2012 CLE – Lombardy region
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
2005
2012
2005
2012
2005
2012
NO
xV
OC
PM
10
Emissioni [t/anno]
Boiler natural gas Boiler gas oil Boiler domestic fuel oil Boiler keroseneBoiler domestic fuel oil Traditional fireplace wood Pizzerie wood BAT fireplace woodBAT pellets wood Innovative woodstove Traditional woodstove
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 62
Road Transport
E = FEi * NVi * Pi
Technology scenario Fuel consumption scenario
Euro 0
Euro 10?
2012 CLE – Lombardy region
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Gasoline Diesel Total
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 63
Road Transport
iai
iai
aiE
EEE
,
,
,2010
201220102012
INEMAR
COPERT 4
2012 CLE – Lombardy region
JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 64
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012
SO2 NOX COV NH3 PM10
Em
issi
on
s [t
/ye
ar]
Passenger cars LDV HDV Mopeds Motorcycle Evaporative
2012 CLE – Lombardy region