Political Psychology: Citizen Behaviors and Opinions

Political Psychology:Citizen Behaviors and Opinions

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

Program

Citizens’ political information

The heuristics model

The online model

The belief-sampling model

Citizens’ political information

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

Theoretical starting point

Traditional democratic theory asserts that a strong and healthy democracy requires an alert, attentive, informed, and reactive electorate.

Empirical reality

Most citizens are generally little informed about politics.

However, they are not completely ignorant nor severely misinformed.

Debates in the literature

The low level of information is undeniable.

Arguments rage over the capacity of citizens to develop quality opinions.

The heuristics model

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

The heuristics model

Citizens use affective and cognitive shortcuts that allow them to simplify political choices and to develop reasonable opinions.

Shortcuts are efficient because they require little information and generate reliable solutions to complex dilemmas.

The type of heuristics used varies by the level of political sophistication.

The reliance on affect is more likely among less sophisticated people.

The reliance on cognition is more likely among more sophisticated people.

Heterogeneity

Heterogeneity

Heuristics: Sniderman, Brody & Tetlock

‘likability’

‘availability’

‘desert’

Heuristics: Lupia

California, 1988

Referendum on the reform of the auto-insurance system

5 technical and complex proposals

Heuristics: Lupia

Informational shortcut:

People who know the identity of the referendum proposals’ sponsors should make the right choices.

Heuristics: Lupia

Weaknesses of the heuristics model

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

Do heuristics lead to the right choices?

partisan labels

‘availability’ (SBT)

‘likability’ (SBT)

‘cue’ (Lupia)

Do heuristics lead to the right choices?

Politics :

requires responses to difficult questions,

does not make the relevant information easily accessible,

does not encourage reflection and deliberation,

and rarely offers feedback.

Do heuristics lead to the right choices?

Biases in political judgments :

Reliance on stereotypes   Excess of confidence   Resistance to correction  Influence of easy arguments Biased interpretation of messages 

Biased interpretation of messages

Conclusion of Kuklinski and Quirk

Citizens are not very informed, but they also tend to bias and errors when they use this little amount of information.

Conclusion of Kuklinski and Quirk

Inferences based on long-term factors will tend to work well.

Inferences based on short-term factors will tend to be more problematic.

The online model

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

The online model When the goal is to form an impression,

one evaluates information when it is encountered and integrates it into a rolling judgment.

The information that contributed to the judgment is quickly forgotten.

When an opinion is expressed, it is this judgment that is recalled.

The judgment is constantly updated.

Experiment :

– 2 fictitious candidates

– Profile of their issue positions

– Measures of impressions

– Time delay

– Measures of impressions & recall

The online model

Results :

– Failing recall of information

– Recall of information degrades rapidly

– Recall of impressions remains stable

– Recall weakly related to impressions

– Messages more related to impressions

The online model

The online model

The online model

Criticisms :

– Plausible? Convincing?

– Existing impressions or reactions to party identification?

– What is the measure of messages?

– Actual vote models versus authors’ views versus authors’ model?

The online model

The belief-sampling model

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

There is a lot of instability in opinions over time.

There is a lot of instability in opinions related to variations in questionnaire construction.

People express opinions about fictional issues and fictional persons.

Observations

Citizens do not possess preexisting opinions.

They hold a mix of partially coherent considerations.

When asked, they survey a sample of the most salient considerations, and chose a response on the spot.

The belief-sampling model

Consideration : reason to support one side of an issue

Axiom 1 : ambivalence

Axiom 2 : response

Axiom 3 : accessibility

The belief-sampling model

Signs of ambivalence among considerations (axiom 1).

Correlation between the balance of considerations and choice (axiom 2).

More interest and engagement leads to more accessible considerations (axiom 3).

Results

Instability of opinions

Questionnaire effects

Opinions on fictional issues and fictional people

Explanations of the observations

People don’t have real opinions.

Opinion change is simply a modification of the mix of accessible considerations.

Persuasion comes from the manipulation of salient considerations.

Implications

Conclusion

Lecture 5

Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

Which model is right ... ?

Heterogeneity ... ?

Conclusion