Political Parties & Elections in Post-Soviet Russia (Part 1) 633... · • Yeltsin campaigns little in-between rounds –Suffers heart attack but denies it • Beats Zyuganov handily

1

• Key questions:– How do elections in post-Soviet Russia differ from

those conducted in the late 1980s (under Gorbachev)?

– What sorts of political parties emerge in the 1990s?

– What explains the slow pace of development of political parties in the 1990s? Is this an indicator of a lack of receptivity to democracy?

– To what extent are the elections in Russia in the 1990s democratic in nature (e.g., competitive, open, non-corrupt, etc.)?

Political Parties & Elections in Post-Soviet

Russia (Part 1)Terms: Federal Assembly; Federation Council; Duma; single-member

district; Zhirinovskii; Zyuganov

USSR Supreme Soviet

-Laws applied in Soviet Union

(Including RSFSR)

USSR Voters

RSFSR Supreme Soviet

- Laws applied in RSFSR

RSFSR Voters

USSR Supreme Soviet

-Laws applied in Soviet Union

(Including RSFSR)

USSR Voters

RSFSR Supreme Soviet

- Laws applied in RSFSR

RSFSR Voters

Election effectively

invalidated

2

• Governmental structure in post-93 environment (2nd Russian Republic)

– “October events” opened the door for a new constitution

– New rights & responsibilities for citizens (BUT rethought by Putin)

Legislature => Federal Assembly

-- Bicameral: State Duma & Federation Council

Yeltsin (post-93) selection mechanisms – Reformed by Putin

Federation Council: Upper house

• 2 reps from each “subject”

– one rep from exec branch – one rep from legisl

• Original selection system:– Executive rep = governor of region

– Legislative rep = speaker of regional legislature

• Consequence of selection system:

– Federation Council was not a full-time legislative body

3

Duma: under original (post-93) rules, deputies selected

through 2 separate mechanisms

• Half of deputies are elected in single-member districts

– Geographically-based constituencies

– Candidate need not have any prior connection with locale

– Whoever gets most votes wins

• Half of deputies are elected through party lists

(proportional representation)

– Citizens vote for party (not individual)

• BUT support for party is affected by who is on the list

• List constitutes rank order of candidates –

those at top of list will be seated first

– 5% threshold requirement => intended to foster party dev-mt

• Bottom line => people vote twice

December 1993 elections to the Duma

• Held in wake of “October events”

• 2-year terms for deputies (rather than usual 4-year terms)

• High level of participation

– 1400 candidates registered for 250 SMD seats

– 13 parties competed

• Outcome:

– 8 parties made it over 5% threshold

– BUT within SMD – general lack of party influence

• 64% of winning candidates were unaffiliated with any party

Results from 1993 elections

4

Images of Vladimir Zhirinovskii

• Surprises from 93 elections

– Strength of Zhirinovsky (LDPR)

• Nationalist platform

• Weaker showing in SMD voting

– Revival of Communists

– Non-dominance of democrats

• Yeltsin lent his support to

“Russia’s Choice”

• Won more seats than any other

party, but had been expected to

win a full majority

• Consequence:

“Russia’s Choice” splinters

5

Comparison of the legislative elections in 1990s:

vote in PR elections

Party 1993 1995 1999

Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24)

Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR)

[Zhirinovskii]

X (23) X (11) X (6)

Russia’s Choice [Gaidar] X (16)

Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6)

Our Home is Russia [Chernomyrdin] X (10)

Unity [Gryzlov – alliance w/ Putin]

In 2003 – United Russia

X (24)

Fatherland [Luzhkov]

In 2000 – joins forces w/ Unity

X (13)

Union of Right Forces [Khakamada;

Nemtsov] – rebirth of “Russia’s Choice”

X (9)

% of PR vote “wasted” 12 50 18

• Communist Party hangs on,

but is reformulated

– Main constituency –

pensioners

– Strength declines as time

goes on (constituency is

dying off)

– Lack of charismatic leader

(Zyuganov)

– More recently CP splinters

• Rodina

• Rise of factionsThe Communist Party has not changed

its name; it will not change its methods

Comparison of the legislative elections in the 1990s:

vote in PR elections

Party 1993 1995 1999



[Zhirinovskii]

X (23) X (11) X (6)






X (24)



X (13)



X (9)


6

• Proliferation of parties: 1993-1999

BUT few get over 5% threshold

– 1995: 43 parties – 4 survive

– 1999: 26 parties – 6 survive

• Why so many parties on the ballot?Why do so few make it?

• Result: many voters “waste” their votes

– 1995: 50% of PR votes are “wasted”

– 1999: 18% of PR votes are “wasted”

Wasted vote

Party 1993 1995 1999



[Zhirinovskii]

X (23) X (11) X (6)






X (24)



X (13)



X (9)


• Longstanding dissatisfaction w/ dualistic electoral

system

– Yeltsin wanted to eliminate party lists -- unsuccessful

– Putin succeeded in eliminating single-member districts

List SMD List SMD

Communist Party 99 58 67 46

LDPR 50 1 17 0

Our Home is Russia 45 10 -- --

Yabloko 31 14 16 4

Unity / United Russia -- -- 64 9

Independent NA 77 NA 114

1993 1999

7

• Relatively few political parties have been able to sustain themselves– Only 3 major parties have participated in all elections

• Communists, Liberal Democrats, Yabloko

– Only 2 parties have gotten over the 5% threshold in all elections

• Communists, Liberal Democrats

– Significant number of parties do well in 1 election, then vanish

• 1993: Russia’s Choice

• 1995: Our Home is Russia

Trends

Only 2 Parties Get Over Threshold in All Elections

Party 1993 1995 1999 2003 2007

Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24) X (13) X (12)


[Zhirinovskii]

X (23) X (11) X (6) X (12) X (8)


Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6) (2)




X (24) X (37) X (64)



X (13)



X (9) (1)

Motherland / Rodina [Glazyev] X (9)

A Just Russia Party [pro-Kremlin] X (8)

% of PR vote “wasted” 12 50 18 29 [8]

Flash-in-the Pan Parties

Party 1993 1995 1999 2003 2007

Communist Party (CPRF) [Zyuganov] X (12) X (22) X (24) X (13) X (12)


[Zhirinovskii]

X (23) X (11) X (6) X (12) X (8)


Yabloko [Yavlinskii] X (8) X (7) X (6) (2)




X (24) X (37) X (64)



X (13)



X (9) (1)

Motherland / Rodina [Glazyev] X (9)

A Just Russia Party [pro-Kremlin] X (8)

% of PR vote “wasted” 12 50 18 29 [8]

8

Our Home is Russia (1995)

V.P. Chernomyrdin (then Prime Minister)

• Tendency of parties to be identified

with specific individuals, rather than

with ideas or policy agendas

– Consequence: parties tend to be

short-lived

– Support tends to be shallow

– Some leaders are charismatic (ex:

Zhirinovskii), while others emerge

as leaders through intellect (ex:

Yavlinskii – Yabloko)

• Yeltsin never joined a party.

Yavlinskii

Zhirinovskii

Pro Yabloko

A joining together of Democrats

Anti Yabloko

Don’t vote for Yabloko! It’s rotten.

Moscow City Council elections (2005)

Rhetoric regarding Yabloko

9

Percentage of Women & Workers in

Elected Legislatures

Manual Workers Women

USSR Supreme Soviet (1970) 31.7% 30.5%


USSR Cong of P Deps (1989) 18.6% 17.1%


Russian Duma (1994) 1.3% 13.5%

Russian Duma (2000) 0.65% 7.7%

Russian Duma (2004) 0 10%

• Democratic-oriented parties

– Fail to capture popular enthusiasm

– Steady decline

• 93: 24% of PR vote



– Possible explanations:

• Democratic parties blamed for difficulties of

transition

• Leaders of democratically-inclined parties

unwilling to compromise

• Leaders unable to tap into popular issues

How does Yeltsin become the President of Russia?

• Step 1: Reemerges into political life with election to USSR Congress of Peoples’ Deputies (March 1989)

• Step 2: Elected to the Russian Congress of Peoples’ Deputies (March 1990)

• Step 3: Becomes chairman of the Russian Supreme Soviet (May 1990)

• Step 4: Popularly elected as President of Russian Federation (June 1991)

10

Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet

(pre-1989)

• Figurehead of government

• No real power

Chairman of the Supreme Soviet

(1988-90)

• Elected by Congress of People’s Deputies

• Highest ranking official in the USSR

• Position authorized by constitutional amendment

• Gorbachev elected to post (5-89)

President of the Soviet Union

(1990-91)

• First President to be elected indirectly by legislature

• Subsequent Presidents to be elected directly for

5-year terms

• Head of executive branch

• Gorbachev elected – March 1990

President of the

Russian Supreme Soviet

• Elected indirectly by

legislative deputies

• Yeltsin elected

(May 1990)

President of Russia

(when Russia was still part

of the Soviet Union)

• Elected directly

• Yeltsin elected

(June 1990)

• June 1991 election:

– Multiple candidates (6)

– Eligibility to run:

• Endorsed by party w/ 20% of deputies in Russian Congress of Peoples’ Deps

• Collect 100,000 signatures

– Yeltsin picks Rutskoi as VP(military leader)

– Results:

• Yeltsin 57%

• Ryzhkov 17%

• Zhirinovsky 8%

• Against all 2%

Presidential Elections: 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008

• 1996 Election: no one

expected Yeltsin to run

– Single digit popularity ratings

– Sources of unpopularity:

• “October events”

• War in Chechnya – begun

in Dec 1994 – quagmire

• Suffering as a result of

transition (poverty,

unemployment, etc.)

11

Yeltsin during the 1st round of the 96 elections

• Yeltsin decides to run

– 2-stage campaign

– Yeltsin seems like a

new man

– lots of energy

– until collapse after 1st

round of voting

Results of the 1st round of the 1996 election:

Candidate % of popular vote

Boris Yeltsin 35.5

Gennadi Zyuganov 32.0

Aleksandr Lebed 14.5

Gregori Yavlinskii 7.3

Vladimir Zhirinovskii 5.7

Svyatoslav Fyodorov 0.9

Mikhail Gorbachev 0.5

Against all candidates 1.5

12

Second round of 1996 election:

• Yeltsin strikes deal w/ Lebed

(3rd place finisher)

• Yeltsin campaigns little

in-between rounds

– Suffers heart attack but

denies it

• Beats Zyuganov handily

Yeltsin: 53.8%

Zyuganov: 40.3%

How did Yeltsin win?

• Money: Yeltsin outspent other candidates

– Electoral law ostensibly limited candidates to $3 million

– No meaningful enforcement mechanisms

• Media: Yeltsin coopts the media

– All networks & most newspapers openly supported Yeltsin

– Journalists defended themselves by pointing to fear of what

would happen if Zyuganov (Communist) won

• Message: Yeltsin better at presenting his positions

– Professional commercials for Yeltsin

– Contrast w/ simplistic approach of Zyuganov

Posters for Yeltsin’s campaign

13

Zyuganov’s campaign:

The candidate & his supporters

General conclusions about Russian

elections in the 1990s:

• Held regularly; universal suffrage

• Fairly competitive: Some criticisms about

strong-arm tactics (especially in 1996

presidential election), but generally free

• Relatively stable rules, but uncertain

outcomes

Political Parties & Elections in Post-Soviet Russia (Part 1) 633... · • Yeltsin campaigns little in-between rounds –Suffers heart attack but denies it • Beats Zyuganov handily

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