Planning for Climate Change

Planning for Climate Change

Climate science in the public interest

Lara Whitely BinderClimate Impacts GroupCenter for Science in the Earth SystemJoint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and OceanUniversity of Washington

October 16, 2007US EPA Region X Climate Change Series

• Motivation for writing grew out of October 2005 King County climate change conference

• Written by the CIG and King County, WA in association with ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability

• Written to compliment ICLEI’s “Climate Resilient Communities” Program

• Focused on the process (not a sector), and written for a national audience

www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/guidebook.shtml

Mitigation activities

Focus on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases

Responding to Climate Change: Responding to Climate Change: Mitigation and AdaptationMitigation and Adaptation

Adaptation activities

Focus on developing the capacity to manage the change that occurs as mitigation strategies are debated and enacted. Focus of the CIG.

“climate proof”

What Is Adaptive Planning?

Most importantly…

“Adaptation is not one activity or decision, but rather a continuous set of activities, actions, decisions, and attitudes undertaken by individuals, groups, and governments.”

-- Adger et al. 2005

What Is Adaptive Planning?

Aims to increase community and ecosystem resilience to climate change by taking steps to proactively reduce the risks associated with climate change.

• Significant climate change impacts are projected, and the impacts expected within the next few decades are largely unavoidable.

• Decisions with long-term impacts are being made every day. Today’s choices will shape tomorrow’s vulnerabilities.

• Significant time is required to motivate and develop adaptive capacity, and to implement changes.

• In many (if not most) cases, it will cost more to retrofit for climate resilience than to build for it in the first place. (And there may be benefits…)

Why Adaptive Planning?....

Data source: IPCC 2001

IPCC “best estimate” range of global-scale warming by the 2090s: 3.2°F-7.2°F

Warming in the next few decades driven by current atmospheric GHG concentrations

2121stst Century Global Warming Century Global Warming

Projected 21Projected 21stst Century PNW Warming Century PNW Warming

+1.9ºF (0.7-3.2ºF)

+2.9ºF (1.4-4.6ºF)

More detail on the CIG scenarios is available at: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccscenarios.shtml

• Mean change: +2°F (2020s), +3°F (2040s)

• Rate of change expected to be 3x greater

• Warming expected in all seasons

Changes relative to 1970-1999

• Significant climate change impacts are projected, and the impacts expected within the next few decades are largely unavoidable.

• Decisions with long-term impacts are being made every day. Today’s choices will shape tomorrow’s vulnerabilities.

• Significant time is required to motivate and develop adaptive capacity, and to implement changes.

• In many (if not most) cases, it will cost more to retrofit for climate resilience than to build for it in the first place. (And there may be benefits…)

Why Adaptive Planning (cont’d)?....

The real cause of the melting ice caps

• Collect and review basic information on climate change impacts to your region

• Build internal and external support for climate change preparedness

• Create your preparedness team

• Identify your community’s vulnerabilities to climate change

• Develop and implement your preparedness plan

• Measure your progress and update your plan

Planning for Climate Change

• Collect and review basic information on climate change impacts to Region X

• Review EPA programs and regulations for climate change impacts.

– Which programs/regs govern resources likely to be affected by climate change?

– How will climate change affect the objectives of those programs/regs?

– How adaptive are the programs/regs? (Look for qualities that limit adaptive capacity)

Planning for Climate Change at EPA

At the agency and program level (via cross-disciplinary team and program-level teams):At the agency and program level (via cross-disciplinary team and program-level teams):

Qualities That Limit Adaptive Capacity

• The resource is already stressed by current climate in ways that limit adaptation to future climate change;

• Other non-climate trends are likely to increase stress on the resource;

• The resource’s ability to adapt is physically limited;

• Management of the resource is highly fragmented; and/or

• The policies, etc. affecting a resource are inflexible to projected changes (see “red flags”).

Policy “Red Flags”

• Policies that do not allow regular re-evaluation and adjustment in accordance with changing conditions

• Policies that require planning based only on the past, or pin certain decisions/triggers to certain periods or seasonal patterns (e.g., FEMA regs)

• Policies that reinforce trends that increase vulnerability or reduce adaptability (e.g., development along flood plains)

Flexibility is essential. Characteristics of policies governing climate-sensitive resources that can limit adaptability:

Question to consider (cont’d):

– How should these programs/regs be modified (if at all) to take climate change into account?

– What other stakeholders need to be involved in modifying EPA programs/regs?

• Develop and implement your plan for integrating climate change into EPA programs, regs, grants.

• Build internal and external support for climate change preparedness with EPA and among EPA’s constituents

• Measure your progress and update your plan

EPA Planning cont’d

Guiding Principles for Planning

• Increase public awareness of climate change and projected impacts

• Develop and maintain technical capacity to prepare for climate change impacts

• “Mainstream” information about climate change vulnerabilities, risks, and preparedness into planning, policy, and investment decisions

• Increase the adaptive capacity of built, natural, and human systems in your community.

• Strengthen community partnerships that reduce vulnerability and risk.

General Implementation Tools

• Zoning rules and regulations

• Taxation (including tax incentives)

• Building codes/design standards

• Utility rates/fee setting

• Public safety rules and regulations

• Issuance of bonds

• Infrastructure development

• Permitting and enforcement

• Best management practices

• Outreach and education

• Emergency management powers

• Partnership building with other communities

• “No regrets” strategiesProvides benefits now with or without

climate change (e.g., water conservation program)

• “Low regrets” strategiesProvide climate change benefits for little

additional cost or risk (e.g., adding 10% capacity rather than 5%)

• “Win-win” strategiesReduce climate change impacts while

providing other environmental, social, or economic benefits (e.g., wetlands protection)

Planning for Uncertainty

Look to implement

Current PNW State Efforts

• Washington “PAWGs” (Preparation/Adaptation Work Groups)– Formed under the Gov’s Climate Change Challenge

– Coasts, Human Health, Forests, Agriculture, Water

– Recommendations to Gov. due December 2007

• Oregon Climate Change Integration Group– Natural Systems (ecosystems and organisms), Human

Services (public health, emergency management), Built Environment (buildings and infrastructure), Economic Systems

– Drafts in preparation

SummarySummary

• Global and regional climate is already changing

• These changes are expected to accelerate in the coming decades

• Changes in snowpack and streamflow caused by rising temperatures will have important consequences for resources across the Pacific Northwest

• The information and the tools to begin planning for climate change exist now

More information on PNW climate impacts and planning for climate change is available from

The Climate Impacts Group

www.cses.washington.ed/cig

Lara Whitely Binder

[email protected]