Minnesota Transportation Climate Change Planning Saint Paul Climate Action Plan May 2017 Philip Schaffner Policy Planning Director
Minnesota Transportation Climate Change Planning
Saint Paul Climate Action Plan May 2017
Philip Schaffner
Policy Planning Director
Climate Change Impact Confidence In
Change for MN in next 20 years
Effect to Transportation System
Heavy Precipitation/Flooding Very High
Damage to highway and rail infrastructure, airport runways
Overtopping roads will slow operations and performance
Slope failures and erosion
Warmer Winters Very High
More ice
Reduced pavement conditions and life cycles
Downed power lines with ice storms
New species ranges High
Changes in roadside vegetation mixes
Soil erosion
Increase in invasive species populations
Increased exposure of construction and maintenance crews to vector-borne diseases
Drought Medium Reduced river navigability for barges
Roadside vegetation stress, which may reduce rainwater storage and increase soil erosion in the long-
term
High Heat Low
Pavement and rail buckling
Vehicles overheating
Electrical system malfunctions
Limitations on construction hours
Wildfires Unknown
Road closures
Immediate and significant threat to human safety
Damage to roadside infrastructure
Climate Impacts to MN Transportation
Highly vulnerable (Tier 1 and 2) assets are not necessarily in imminent danger of flooding, nor are lower vulnerability assets
immune from flooding. Values are indicators of relative vulnerability compared with other assets in the same district.
New GHG Performance Measures
• Minnesota Statewide Multimodal Transportation Plan
• Adopted January 2017
• New Measure and Target for transportation sector (29.5 million tons by 2025)
• New Federal Measure – delayed indefinitely
4
Transportation GHG Emissions
5
41.8 41.4 42.1 40.8 39.2 39.0 39.0 39.3 39.0 38.8 [VALUE]
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Minnesota Transportation GHG Emissions (millions of tons CO2e)
Source: MPCA, 2015 is MnDOT’s preliminary estimate
Light & Medium
Duty [PERCEN
TAGE]
Heavy Duty 16%
Aviation 10%
AC [PERCEN
TAGE]
Natural Gas
Trans [PERCEN
TAGE]
Rail [PERCEN
TAGE]
Marine [PERCEN
TAGE]
2014
20
25
Target
Vehicle Miles Travelled in Minnesota
6
0B
10B
20B
30B
40B
50B
60B
70B
Ve
hic
le M
iles
Trav
elle
d P
er
Year
in
Bill
ion
s
Source: MnDOT
Twin Cities Transit Trends
73.3 67.2
80.7 85.1
89.0 94.7
88.9 91.0 93.9 93.9 94.3 97.6 98.8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Millions of Rides, All Providers
7 Source: Metropolitan Council
Transportation Outcomes Are Slow to Change…
The vast majority of Buildings in 2030
Already exist
The vast majority of roads, bridges, sidewalks and trails, and rail lines in 2030
Already exist
Many of the cars and trucks on MN roads in 2030
Are driving on our roads today
Aging Infrastructure
The bulk of Minnesota’s highway system was originally constructed 40-70 years ago.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99
Stat
e H
igh
way
Lan
e M
iles
Pavement Age (Years) Source: MnDOT, Data from 2014
Simplified Equation for Transportation GHG Emissions
Distance Travelled
Energy Per Unit of Distance
GHG Emissions Per Unit of Energy
Complementary Strategies
• Compact & Mixed-Use Development
• Building efficiencies
• Opportunities for shorter trips
• Create necessary density of origins/destinations to support transit
• Transit + biking and walking
• Support compact development patterns
• Create transit-oriented development opportunities
We need to address emissions per unit of energy
Electric Vehicles
• Light/medium duty vehicles
•Buses in certain types of service
•Probably not heavy duty vehicles
• Important: pair with renewable energy
MnDOT GHG Emission Targets
MnDOT Actions
• Formed Sustainable Transportation Steering Committee, champion is our Chief Engineer
• Designated I-94 as an Electric Vehicle Corridor
• Working with MPCA on EV charging plan
• Complete Streets
• Exploring Solar on ROW and at MnDOT facilities
• Engaging other transportation agencies in discussion on reducing emissions
17
Wild Card: Vehicle Automation
• Cars, trucks, buses, “ground drones” and more…