PLACE: nn-Mmm-08 Ben Brangwyn Co-founder, Transition Network Peak oil, climate change and transition – PLACE.

PLACE: nn-Mmm-08PLACE: nn-Mmm-08

Ben BrangwynBen Brangwyn

Co-founder, Transition NetworkCo-founder, Transition Network

Peak oil, climate change and Peak oil, climate change and transition – PLACEtransition – PLACE

AgendaAgenda

Peak Oil and its effectsPeak Oil and its effects Climate ChangeClimate Change Responses at different levelsResponses at different levels

– global, national, local, personalglobal, national, local, personal PO + CC ≠ “business as usual”PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” What is a transition townWhat is a transition town Examples and achievements so farExamples and achievements so far Q&A discussionQ&A discussion

Peak Oil – fields, regions, worldPeak Oil – fields, regions, world

we’ll never “run out” of oilwe’ll never “run out” of oil

we’re running out of we’re running out of

cheap, plentiful oilcheap, plentiful oil

oil underpinsoil underpins– industrial developmentindustrial development

– agricultureagriculture

– economicseconomics

– populationpopulation

about ½ way through it…about ½ way through it…

it’s going to declineit’s going to decline

Peak Oil – discoveryPeak Oil – discovery

before you extract it, you have to find itbefore you extract it, you have to find it

US discovery peaked in 1930sUS discovery peaked in 1930s

– production peaked in 1971production peaked in 1971

UK discovery peaked in 1975UK discovery peaked in 1975

– production peaked in 1999production peaked in 1999

world discovery peaked in 1960sworld discovery peaked in 1960s

– production will peak in 20??production will peak in 20??

Peak Oil – official numbersPeak Oil – official numbers

EIA - EIA - Energy Information Administration

IEA - International Energy Agency

Peak Oil vs Peak ExportsPeak Oil vs Peak Exports

Oil producers getting richerOil producers getting richer

Developing their own economiesDeveloping their own economies Middle East growth: 5-6% paMiddle East growth: 5-6% pa

Russia growth: 7% paRussia growth: 7% pa

Increasing their domestic Increasing their domestic

consumption of oilconsumption of oil fuelled by subsidised pricesfuelled by subsidised prices

Less available for countriesLess available for countries

they export to. Like us …they export to. Like us …

Peak Oil – what’s it like?Peak Oil – what’s it like?

terminal declineterminal decline

demand destructiondemand destruction

examples: examples:

– 1990s: North Korea1990s: North Korea

– 1990s: Cuba1990s: Cuba

– 2000: UK fuel crisis2000: UK fuel crisis

– Now: Poor countriesNow: Poor countries

Peak Oil – happening now Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re poor)(if you’re poor)

AsiaAsia– NepalNepal

– PakistanPakistan

– BangladeshBangladesh

– Sri LankaSri Lanka

– PhilippinesPhilippines

– ChinaChina

– IndiaIndia

– VietnamVietnam

AfricaAfrica– UgandaUganda

– ZimbabweZimbabwe

– GhanaGhana

– NigeriaNigeria

– SenegalSenegal

– KenyaKenya

– GambiaGambia

– PhilippinesPhilippines

AmericasAmericas– ArgentinaArgentina

– NicaraguaNicaragua

– ChileChile

– Costa RicaCosta Rica

– Dominican RepublicDominican Republic

Middle EastMiddle East– IraqIraq

– IranIran

Peak Oil – happening now Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re in Argentina)(if you’re in Argentina)

Argentina:Argentina:– worst energy shortage in nearly 20 yearsworst energy shortage in nearly 20 years– collapse of both the power grid and the fuel supply collapse of both the power grid and the fuel supply

systemsystem– electricity supplies have been severely curtailed, electricity supplies have been severely curtailed,

plunging entire districts into darkness and causing the plunging entire districts into darkness and causing the layoff of industrial workerslayoff of industrial workers

– shortages of compressed natural gas, which powers shortages of compressed natural gas, which powers many Argentine cars and 90% of the capital's taxis, many Argentine cars and 90% of the capital's taxis, are commonare common

– can no longer meet peak electricity demand.can no longer meet peak electricity demand.

Climate Change – the end of Climate Change – the end of the debatethe debate

Warming of the climate Warming of the climate system is unequivocalsystem is unequivocal

Most of the observed Most of the observed increase in globally increase in globally averaged temperatures averaged temperatures since the mid-20th since the mid-20th century is very likely century is very likely (confidence level >90%) (confidence level >90%) due to the observed due to the observed increase in human increase in human greenhouse gas greenhouse gas concentrationsconcentrations

The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:

Upsala Glacier, ArgentinaUpsala Glacier, Argentina

Fossil Fuels, Carbon and Fossil Fuels, Carbon and Economic GrowthEconomic Growth

Peak Oil & Climate ChangePeak Oil & Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE(a la Stern et al.)(a la Stern et al.) climate engineeringclimate engineering carbon capture and carbon capture and

storagestorage tree-based carbon tree-based carbon

offsetsoffsets international international

emissions tradingemissions trading climate adaptationclimate adaptation improved improved

transportation transportation logisticslogistics

nuclear powernuclear power

PLANNED PLANNED RELOCALISATIONRELOCALISATION

local resiliencelocal resilience carbon reductioncarbon reduction consume closer to homeconsume closer to home produce closer to homeproduce closer to home play closer to homeplay closer to home decentralised energy decentralised energy

infrastructureinfrastructure the Great Reskillingthe Great Reskilling localised foodlocalised food energy descent plansenergy descent plans local medicinal capacitylocal medicinal capacity local currencieslocal currencies

PEAK OILPEAK OIL(a la Hirsch et al.)(a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquidscoal to liquids gas to liquidsgas to liquids relaxed drilling relaxed drilling

regulationsregulations massively scaled massively scaled

biofuelsbiofuels tar sands and non-tar sands and non-

conventional oilsconventional oils resource resource

nationalism and nationalism and stockpilingstockpiling

What can be done?What can be done?

GlobalGlobal– Oil Depletion ProtocolOil Depletion Protocol– Contraction and ConvergenceContraction and Convergence– KyotoKyoto

NationalNational– TEQs (energy rationing)TEQs (energy rationing)

CommunityCommunity– Transition Towns, cities, villages, ruralTransition Towns, cities, villages, rural

PersonalPersonal– ““The work that reconnects”The work that reconnects”– lessons from addiction counsellinglessons from addiction counselling– getting Gaia’edgetting Gaia’ed

Can we respond?Can we respond?

Going up the energy slope, we usedGoing up the energy slope, we used– ingenuity– creativity– adaptability– cooperation

Going back down…– if we’re early enough– if we’re cooperative– the future could be a

whole lot better…

What’s stopping us? (1)What’s stopping us? (1)

Myths of todayMyths of today– Things are getting betterThings are getting better– We must keep shoppingWe must keep shopping– Technology will solve all our problemsTechnology will solve all our problems– There is no alternativeThere is no alternative– You can’t stop progressYou can’t stop progress– Living standards are risingLiving standards are rising– New, better, faster, shinier ____ are just around the cornerNew, better, faster, shinier ____ are just around the corner– Humans are selfish and greedy by natureHumans are selfish and greedy by nature– The market will solve itThe market will solve it

We’re all doomed…We’re all doomed…

What’s stopping us? (2)What’s stopping us? (2)

Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment)Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment) Short term vs long term thinkingShort term vs long term thinking

– rational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilianrational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian

Belief in authority figuresBelief in authority figures– electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal doseelectrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose– obedient children surviveobedient children survive

Sunk cost, or investment in the presentSunk cost, or investment in the present– ““it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job

depends on him not believing it”depends on him not believing it”

OptimismOptimism– an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfillingan optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling

Left brain, right brainLeft brain, right brain

Where are we going? Where are we going?

Indu

stri

al A

scen

t

• Energy & Resource UseEnergy & Resource Use• Population• Pollution Pollution

Peak Energy?

Techno-Fantasy

Green-Tech Green-Tech

StabilityStabilityGreen-Tech Green-Tech

StabilityStability

Earth

stewardshipPost Mad Max Collapse

Great Grand Children

Agriculture10.000yrs BP

Industrial Revolution

Baby Boom

Pre-industrial culture

Historical Time Future Time

Creative D

escent

(Perm

aculture)

Who’s doing creative, Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? orderly energy descent?

Totnes Totnes Penwith (Cornwall) Penwith (Cornwall) KinsaleKinsale IvybridgeIvybridge FalmouthFalmouth MoretonhampsteadMoretonhampstead Lewes Lewes Stroud Stroud AshburtonAshburton Ottery St MaryOttery St Mary Bristol Bristol BrixtonBrixton Forest RowForest Row MayfieldMayfield GlastonburyGlastonbury

400+ “mullers”400+ “mullers”– UKUK– IrelandIreland– USAUSA– SpainSpain– ItalyItaly– New ZealandNew Zealand– AustraliaAustralia– FranceFrance– IsraelIsrael– CanadaCanada– MexicoMexico– NorwayNorway– South AfricaSouth Africa– SwedenSweden– UruguayUruguay– Argentina…Argentina…

Forest of DeanForest of Dean LostwithielLostwithiel NottinghamNottingham WringtonWrington Brighton&HoveBrighton&Hove Portobello (Edinburgh)Portobello (Edinburgh) Market HarboroughMarket Harborough Sunshine Coast, OzSunshine Coast, Oz West KirbyWest Kirby LlandeiloLlandeilo Bro DdyfiBro Ddyfi WhitstableWhitstable Marsden&SlaithwaiteMarsden&Slaithwaite FromeFrome

Official Transition InitiativesOfficial Transition Initiatives

How are they organising? How are they organising?

Transition ModelTransition Model Understanding:Understanding:

PO + CC ≠ “business as usual”PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” Adaptability, creativeAdaptability, creative NOWNOW

7 Buts7 Buts 12 Steps12 Steps Transition NetworkTransition Network

Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1)Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1)

1)1) we don’t have fundingwe don’t have funding

2)2) ““they” won’t let usthey” won’t let us

– no enemies… apparentlyno enemies… apparently

3)3) turf wars with other turf wars with other

green groupsgreen groups

Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2)Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2)

4)4) no one cares about the environmentno one cares about the environment

5)5) it’s too late anywayit’s too late anyway

6)6) I don’t have the right qualificationsI don’t have the right qualifications

7)7) I don’t have the energy to be doing I don’t have the energy to be doing thatthat

Transition Model - Step 1Transition Model - Step 1

Set Up a Steering Group Set Up a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from and Design Its Demise from the Outset the Outset – atrophyatrophy

– personal agendaspersonal agendas

– humilityhumility

– stages 2-5stages 2-5

– reforms from subgroupsreforms from subgroups

Transition Model - Step 2Transition Model - Step 2

Awareness raising Awareness raising – allies and networksallies and networks

– prepare communityprepare community

– moviesmovies

– talkstalks

– eventsevents

Transition Model - Step 3Transition Model - Step 3

Lay the foundations Lay the foundations – other groupsother groups

– existing projectsexisting projects

– official bodiesofficial bodies

– businessesbusinesses

– collaborationcollaboration

Transition Model - Step 4Transition Model - Step 4

Organise a Great Unleashing Organise a Great Unleashing – coming of agecoming of age

– powerful, passionate, powerful, passionate, informative, inspirationalinformative, inspirational

– timingtiming

– contentcontent

– making connectionsmaking connections

Transition Model - Step 5Transition Model - Step 5

Form “working groups” Form “working groups” – starting new groupsstarting new groups

– bringing in existing groupsbringing in existing groups

– guidelinesguidelines

– trainingtraining

– working groups and the working groups and the steering groupsteering group

Transition Model - Step 6Transition Model - Step 6

Use “Open Space” Use “Open Space” – shouldn’t work!shouldn’t work!

– requirementsrequirements

– preparationspreparations

– World CaféWorld Café Harrison Owen - Open Space Harrison Owen - Open Space

Technology: A User’s GuideTechnology: A User’s Guide Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ - Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ -

The Change Handbook: Group The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the FutureMethods for Shaping the Future

Transition Model - Step 7Transition Model - Step 7

Develop visible practical Develop visible practical manifestations of your project manifestations of your project – not a talking shopnot a talking shop

– chose carefullychose carefully

– lure in fence-sitterslure in fence-sitters

– team building potentialteam building potential

– getting dirt under your getting dirt under your fingernailsfingernails

Transition Model - Step 8Transition Model - Step 8

Facilitate the Great Reskilling Facilitate the Great Reskilling – Grandma, what was it like when you Grandma, what was it like when you

were a kid?were a kid?

– repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, natural building, loft insulation, natural building, loft insulation, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, basic home energy efficiency, basic home energy efficiency, making sour doughs, practical food making sour doughs, practical food growing (the list is endless…)growing (the list is endless…)

– eg WWOOFingeg WWOOFing

Transition Model - Step 9Transition Model - Step 9

Build bridges to Local Build bridges to Local Government Government – becomes crucialbecomes crucial

– don’t wait too long…don’t wait too long…

– open dooropen door

– Community Development Community Development PlanPlan

– elections…!elections…!

Transition Model - Step 10Transition Model - Step 10

Honour the Elders Honour the Elders – elders as a community elders as a community

resourceresource

– 1930 to 1960 – moving from oil 1930 to 1960 – moving from oil scarcity to abundancescarcity to abundance

– oral historyoral history

– community infrastructurecommunity infrastructure

– not about going backwardsnot about going backwards

Transition Model - Step 11Transition Model - Step 11

Let it go where it wants to Let it go where it wants to go… go… – focus on the questionsfocus on the questions

– unleash the communityunleash the community

– any sense of control is any sense of control is illusoryillusory

Transition Model - Step 12Transition Model - Step 12

Produce and start to implement Produce and start to implement the Energy Descent Action the Energy Descent Action Plan Plan – assess current situationassess current situation

– create 15-20 year vision for all create 15-20 year vision for all key areaskey areas

– integrate with community plan if integrate with community plan if possiblepossible

– identify steps needed to get thereidentify steps needed to get there

– start the workstart the work

What have they achieved What have they achieved so far…? (1)so far…? (1)

TotnesTotnes 8 films, 11 talks, 7 events 8 films, 11 talks, 7 events 10-week “skilling up for powerdown” 10-week “skilling up for powerdown”

coursecourse seed sharing daysseed sharing days oil vulnerability auditingoil vulnerability auditing Estates in TransitionEstates in Transition local food directorylocal food directory local currency (phase 2)local currency (phase 2) oral history archivesoral history archives nut tree capital of Britainnut tree capital of Britain transition storiestransition stories lobbying (food and sustainable building lobbying (food and sustainable building

regs)regs) community plan engagementcommunity plan engagement Totnes Renewable Energy CompanyTotnes Renewable Energy Company

LewesLewes school workshopsschool workshops grow your own food coursesgrow your own food courses rug making courserug making course mending coursemending course Lewes non-plastic bagLewes non-plastic bag library books on sustainabilitylibrary books on sustainability many events, talks and filmsmany events, talks and films

PenwithPenwith many films and talksmany films and talks food and farming day with Soil food and farming day with Soil

AssociationAssociation reskilling – composting toilets reskilling – composting toilets

and reedbedsand reedbeds

What have they achieved What have they achieved so far…? (2)so far…? (2)

BrixtonBrixton greengreen mapping / urban agriculture projectmapping / urban agriculture project permaculture design coursepermaculture design course films and talksfilms and talks presenting to school boards on peak oil and presenting to school boards on peak oil and

climate changeclimate change urban food growers network dayurban food growers network day

BristolBristol many films, talks and eventsmany films, talks and events transition training 2-day coursetransition training 2-day course city orchard (central buying of trees for city orchard (central buying of trees for

productive planting by individual productive planting by individual homeownershomeowners

guerilla gardeningguerilla gardening photo exhibition and competition of “living photo exhibition and competition of “living

more, using less”more, using less”

StroudStroud CSA, local food festivalCSA, local food festival tool sharetool share textile courses, visits to hemp textile courses, visits to hemp

manufacturers, fashion showmanufacturers, fashion show planning Stroud Hemporiumplanning Stroud Hemporium Heinberg meeting with Heinberg meeting with

councilcouncil Transition “think tank” with Transition “think tank” with

local councillocal council many events and talksmany events and talks

Transition TrainingTransition Training

Totnes: 18 to 19-Oct-07Totnes: 18 to 19-Oct-07– 17 people (Birmingham, Lostwithiel, Exeter)17 people (Birmingham, Lostwithiel, Exeter)

Bristol: 20-Nov-07Bristol: 20-Nov-07 London: Dec-07London: Dec-07 Scotland?Scotland? Wales?Wales? North…North…

Our choice…Our choice…

We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it. that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.

Thank youThank you

Ben BrangwynBen Brangwyn

Transition InitiativesTransition Initiatives