1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE

1.

IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES:

FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL

PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE

Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy

George Washington University

17 November 2008

UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08


2.

3. STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION--AND ITS AFTERMATH

1. The prior equilibrium: stable but not durable

2. Disruption: Polity, Economy, Society, State .

3. Legacy: an anti-modern party-state

4. Bottom up responses:

Coping strategies; adaptation; opportunities

5. New equilibrium: A stable state is not a static state

6. Divergence between European studies and Post-Soviet studies


4. MAKING PROGRESS AND FALLING BEHIND

1949 1960 1970 1980 1989 Change

Female life expectancy (years)

Germany: East 69 72 72 75 76 7

Germany: West 67 72 73 76 79 12

Austria 67 72 73 76 79 12

Czechoslovakia 65 73 73 74 75 10

Hungary 63 70 72 73 74 11

Poland 62 70 73 75 75 13

Sources: UN, World Health, OECD health statistics; UN Demographic Yearbook, 1979, special historical supplement; UNICEF International Child Development Centre, Children at Risk in Central and Eastern Europe, 1997, p. 123.



5. MODERN AND ANTI-MODERN SOCIETIES COMPARED

Modern Anti-modern

Rule of law Yes, bureaucratic Arbitrary, political

Openness Transparent Opaque

Signals Prices, laws False accounts, bribes, personal contacts

Cause and effect Predictable Uncertain

Output Efficient Inefficient

6. CEE ASPIRATIONS: RETURN TO MITTELEUROPA

Czechoslovakia Hungary Poland Average

% % % %

Germany 31 38 37 35

Sweden 32 34 21 29

United States 14 10 30 18

Italy 9 9 0 6

France 5 2 7 5

Britain 3 3 3 3

Other 6 2 2 3

Soviet Union 0 1 0 0.3

Source: Freedom House, Democracy, Economic Reform and Western Assistance: Data Tables, 1991, p. 154.


7. RUSSIAN ASPIRATIONS

Q. We often hear the following words. What feelings do they evoke?

Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer, 1992. Those saying “difficult to answer” are not shown.

16%

21%

24%

25%

63%

73%

75%

78%

% Negative % Positive

Freedom 4%

One and indivisible Russia 5%

Christianity 3%

Glasnost (Openness) 16%

Capitalism 28%

Socialism 33%

Perestroika 45%(Restructuring)

Marxism- Leninism 37% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%


8. OPPORTUNITY: FREEDOM

Source: Richard Rose, Wolfgang Zapf and Wolfgang Seifert, Germans in Comparative Perspective, 1993.

34%

13%

24%

97%

82%

97%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Federal Republic

Old regime

Federal Republic

Old regime

Federal Republic

Old regime

East German evaluation of policies of former regime, Federal Republic:

Social security

Freedom to say what you think

Freedom of religious worship


9. ECONOMIC SHOCK TO OFFICIAL ECONOMIES

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Source: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 2001: Energy in Transition, 2001, Table A.3.1, p. 59.

% 1990 GDP

Poland

SloveniaSlovakiaHungaryCzech R.

EstoniaRomaniaBulgariaLithuania

RussiaLatvia


10. ECONOMIC RECOVERY

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

180%

190%

200%

1994 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 2007

Source: EBRD, Transition Report, 2001, 2007; 2006 figures are based on estimates, 2007 figures on forecasts.

% 1990 real GDP

Pol

Slve

Svk

Hun

Cze

Est

Rom

Bul

LithLat

Gross domestic product1990: 100


11. IMPROVEMENTS IN HEALTH

Male life expectancy in years

1990 Fall (year) Peak (year) 2005

New EU countries

Slovenia 69.4 0 +3.8 (2003) 73.2

Czech Republic 68.1 0 +4.0 (2001) 72.0

Poland 66.5 -0.4 (1991) +4.3 (2005) 70.8

Slovakia 66.6 0 +3.5 (2005) 70.1

Bulgaria 68.1 -1.0 (1995) +0.9 (2005) 69.0

Hungary 65.1 -0.6 (1993) +3.5 (2004) 68.6

Romania 66.6 -1.4 (1997) +2.2 (2005) 68.2

Estonia 64.6 -3.5 (1995) +2.7 (2005) 67.3

Latvia 64.2 -3.5 (1994) +2.9 (2004) 67.1

Lithuania 66.4 -3.8 (1994) +0.4 (2000) 66.4

Post-Soviet countries

Belarus 66.3 -4.1 (1999) -2.9 (2000) 62.9

Ukraine 66.0 -5.0 (1996) -3.0 (1998) 62.2

Russia 63.8 -6.2 (1994) -2.5 (1998) 58.9

Source: MONEE project, Innocenti Social Monitor (2007), Table 4.3. Latest figures for Latvia and Lithuania are from 2004.


12. NORMALIZATION IN RUSSIA

Q. Do you think Russian life today is that of a normal society?

2000a 2001 2003a 2004 2005 2007a 2008 Change

% % % % % % %

Definitely 2 9 15 10 10 19 32 +30

Fairly 11 13 25 18 26 27 32 +21

Normal 13 21 40 28 36 46 64 +51

Only a little 54 50 40 45 49 40 26 -28

Not at all 33 29 20 27 15 14 10 -23

Not normal 87 79 60 72 64 54 36 -51

Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer.


13. CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNIONTransparency International Corruption Index

Denmark, Finland 9.4

Sweden 9.3Netherlands 9.0

Luxembourg, United Kingdom 8.4

Austria 8.1Germany 7.8

OLD EU 15 MEAN 7.6Ireland 7.5France 7.3

Belgium 7.1

Spain 6.7Portugal 6.5

Italy 5.2

Greece 4.6

6.6 Slovenia6.5 Estonia

5.8 (Malta)5.3 Hungary, (Cyprus)

5.2 Czech Republic5.0 MEAN OF NEW EU4.9 Slovakia 4.8 Latvia, Lithuania

4.2 Poland4.1 Bulgaria3.7 Romania

Old EU members New EU members

1 Most corrupt

10 Highest integrity

Source: Transparency International, TI Corruption Perceptions Index 2007, www.transparency.org. Accessed 20 May 2008.


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14. DIVERGENCE OF POST-COMMUNIST STATES

Freedom House rating

Perception of Corruption Index

Sources: perception of corruption index: Transparency International, 2007; Freedom House rating: Freedom House, 2007.

SveEst

HunCze

New EU Post-Soviet

SvkLat, LitPol

BulRom

Arm

Aze, Kaz, Taj

Bel

GeoMol

RusUkr

UzbTur

Kyr


1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE

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