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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
• This presentation is prepared by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (“Phillip Securities Research”). By going through this presentation, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below.
• This presentation shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities Research shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this presentation.
• The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities Research has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities Research be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
• Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Non-applicability of Section 27 of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore
and the MAS Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products
• Section 27 of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore and the MAS Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products (FAA-N01) do not apply in respect of this presentation.
• This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.
• This presentation should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this presentation has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this presentation involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.
• Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such security.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
• Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), corporate banking or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, may have participated in or invested in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this presentation, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, may have provided significant advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments as may be mentioned in this presentation.
• To the extent permitted by law, Phillips Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold a material interest in respect of companies and investments or related investments which may be mentioned in this presentation. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillips Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, which is not reflected in this material, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its presentation. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this material.
Risk Warning:
Please carefully consider the ETF's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses before investing. This
ETFs may be complex in nature, investing involves risk including possible loss of principal. Before investing, PSPL
recommends investors to read the Prospectus from the respective Issuer's website carefully. PSPL does not
provide any advice on the funds. ETFs are Specified Investment Products (SIPs) and retail customers are subject
to relevant assessments for trading/investing in SIPs.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
1. OW Equities (no change, maintain) 2. OW Commodities (9th Sep 13 OW from NW) 3. UW Gold (maintain UW since 25th Oct 12) 4. UW +10yr US Treasuries (maintain UW since 4th Jan 13)
(Longer Term)
… after the market has absorbed the postponing of bond tapering news
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
US New Orders:Capex non-defense ex-aircraft(Source: BEA, CEIC, PSR est)
%q-q sa
%y-y 3mma
• Forward looking core-business investment is robust • Employment situation is on a very steady trend despite July’s below expectations print • Trade deficit is narrowing (shale energy) • Govt budget deficit narrowing as the sequester works its way thru the budget
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
China’s slowdown has bottomed out (Reiterate Buy ETF 83188.HK)
• %y-y (3mma, 12mma) volume and freight moved in China have been steadily picking up • Inflation is not an issue hence no worries about interest rate rises • Industrial Profit growth returning • CSI 300 has put in a double bottom in the weekly, and valuations are rock bottom (BUY 83188.HK!)
China Tpt & IP by Volume
(Source: CEIC)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
%y-y 3mma
%y-y 12mma
China Industrial Profit
(Source: CEIC)
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
%y-y 3mma
%y-y 12mma
CHINA CPI
(Source: CEIC)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Jan-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
3
%y-y
%y-y 12mma
Source: Bloomberg
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
3
750
1250
1750
2250
2750
3250
3750
4250
4750
5250
5750
T4Q p/e
Fwd p/e
CSI300
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
• Along with the US and China, the EZ and JP are both picking up
• Altogether, that 75% of global output
• GLOBAL PMIs suggest a global growth rebound
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Global Growth to rebound? Gold corroborates (Short SPDR Gold ETF O87.SGX) • US growth picking up • US trade deficit narrows • US govt budget deficit narrowing • US Corp Profit still trending higher • Macro conditions good for growth, good for the US$. What for hold Gold??
(Source: Bloomberg)
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
Jan-0
8
Jul-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jul-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jul-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jul-1
1
Jan-1
2
Jul-1
2
Jan-1
3
Jul-1
3
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900Dollar Index Gold 30wkma
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Global Growth to rebound? US Bond Markets corroborate
• Strengthening US economy would cause Portfolios to cycle further out of bonds into stocks • This has already been happening with S&P500 outperforming Treasuries this year (see Technical Analysis later) • Prospect of end of QE does 2 things (1) the largest buyer – the Fed – is going to buy less and eventually stop 4q14
(2) signal that the US economy is strong enough to withstand QE tapering, hence stocks remain more attractive than bonds.
• As the short-dated end of the curve is anchored by the Fed Funds Rate, the long end will be sold, hence short 10yr Treasuries with ETF TBT.US
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
VIX is on the downtrend and hasn’t hit “complacent levels” yet. Still room to run.
S&P500: Breadth
Breadth indicators all behaving
normally
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Industrials Sector (Update). Indecision on support
S&P500: Keep an eye on industrials (they are the
present sector leader).
If industrials confirms the break below support, the
S&P may have more short term sell down.
If price can stay above $44.8 this week and next, it
implies further upside
?
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phase 4 strategy: Short Bonds Long Stocks Long Commodities
… this also corroborates our assumption of Stage 4 of the economic cycle and materials and energy sector is to be favored.
Short Treasuries: TBT
Long Commodities: S&P GSCI
(ETF GSG.US)
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
• Global Growth is picking up • US, EZ, JP PMIs are picking up, China we saw is improving • Altogether, that 75% of global output
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Source: Bloomberg
EZ Mfg PMI
EZ Svc PMI
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Source: Bloomberg
Japan Mfg PMI
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Source: Bloomberg
JPM Global Comp PMI
JPM Global Mfg PMI
JPM Global Svc PMI
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
(Source: CEIC, PSR est)
US Mfg PMI
US Services PMI
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phase 4 strategy: Short Bonds Long Stocks (Materials, Energy) Long Industrial Commodities
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
• Strengthening US economy would cause Portfolios to cycle further out of bonds into stocks • This has already been happening with S&P500 outperforming Treasuries this year (see Technical Analysis later) • Prospect of end of QE does 2 things (1) the largest buyer – the Fed – is going to buy less and eventually stop 4q14
(2) signal that the US economy is strong enough to withstand QE tapering, hence stocks remain more attractive than bonds.
• As the short-dated end of the curve is anchored by the Fed Funds Rate, the long end will be sold, hence short 10yr Treasuries with ETF TBT.US
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
US Treasury 10yr - 2yr (L) 10yr Yield 2yr Yield
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
1. OW Equities (no change, maintain) Technicals: short pullback possible
2. OW Commodities (9th Sep 13 OW from NW): Technicals: wait and see
3. UW Gold (maintain UW since 25th Oct 12) Technicals: wait and see
4. UW +10yr US Treasuries (maintain UW since 4th Jan 13) Technicals: wait and see
… after the market has absorbed the postponing of bond tapering news
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.