www.bricdata.com Australian Mining Industry Outlook – Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Industry Forecast Report Reference code: MN0040MR Published: March 2012 BRICdata John Carpenter House 7 Carmelite Street London EC4Y 0BS United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7936 6400 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7336 6813 www.bricdata.com
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www.bricdata.com
Australian Mining Industry
Outlook – Market Opportunities
and Entry Strategies, Analyses
and Forecasts to 2016
Industry Forecast Report
Reference code: MN0040MR
Published: March 2012
BRICdata
John Carpenter House
7 Carmelite Street
London EC4Y 0BS
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7936 6400
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7336 6813
www.bricdata.com
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Australian Mining Industry Outlook – Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and
1 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 2 2 Mining Industry Outlook in Australia............................................................................................... 9
2.1 Mining Industry Market Size and Growth Potential .............................................................................. 9
2.2 Market Share and Production Trend Analysis by Mining Category .................................................... 10
3 Mining Industry Key Trends, Growth Drivers and Challenges ..................................................... 15
3.1 Key Trends and Growth Drivers ........................................................................................................ 15
3.2 End User Market Dynamics .............................................................................................................. 18
6.3 Iron Ore............................................................................................................................................ 33
7 Industry Structure and Dynamics of Coal, Metallic and Non-Metallic Mining ............................. 37
7.1 Five Forces Analysis: Coal ............................................................................................................... 37
7.1.1 Bargaining power of supplier: medium .............................................................................................. 38
7.1.2 Bargaining power of buyer: medium to high ...................................................................................... 38
7.1.3 Barrier to entry: medium ................................................................................................................... 38
7.1.4 Intensity of rivalry: medium ............................................................................................................... 38
7.1.5 Threat of substitution: medium to high .............................................................................................. 38
7.2 Five Forces Analysis: Metallic Minerals ............................................................................................ 39
7.2.1 Bargaining power of supplier: medium to high ................................................................................... 39
7.2.2 Bargaining power of buyer: low to high ............................................................................................. 40
7.2.3 Barrier to entry: medium ................................................................................................................... 40
7.2.4 Intensity of rivalry: low to medium ..................................................................................................... 40
7.2.5 Threat of substitution: low to medium................................................................................................ 41
7.3 Five Forces Analysis: Non-Metallic Minerals ..................................................................................... 42
7.3.1 Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium .................................................................................... 42
7.3.2 Bargaining power of buyer: low ......................................................................................................... 42
7.3.3 Barrier to entry: low .......................................................................................................................... 42
7.3.4 Intensity of rivalry: high ..................................................................................................................... 43
7.3.5 Threat of substitution: low ................................................................................................................. 43
7.4 Five Forces Analysis: Mining Equipment........................................................................................... 44
7.4.1 Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium .................................................................................... 44
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Australian Mining Industry Outlook – Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and
8.1 Overview of Coal Mining Category .................................................................................................... 46
8.2 Reserves, Production and Consumption ........................................................................................... 46
8.2.1 Total reserves .................................................................................................................................. 46
8.2.2 Total production ............................................................................................................................... 47
8.2.3 Total consumption ............................................................................................................................ 51
8.3 Imports and Exports ......................................................................................................................... 52
9 Iron Ore ........................................................................................................................................... 58
9.1 Overview of Iron Ore Mining Sub-Category ....................................................................................... 58
9.2 Reserves, Production and Consumption ........................................................................................... 58
9.2.1 Total reserves .................................................................................................................................. 58
9.2.2 Total production ............................................................................................................................... 59
9.2.3 Total consumption ............................................................................................................................ 63
9.3 Imports and Exports ......................................................................................................................... 64
9.3.1 Iron ore import .................................................................................................................................. 64
9.3.2 Iron ore export .................................................................................................................................. 65
9.4 Top Active Projects .......................................................................................................................... 66
9.5 Key Processing Units ....................................................................................................................... 67
9.6 News and Deals ............................................................................................................................... 68
10 Phosphate Rock ............................................................................................................................. 70
10.1 Overview of Phosphate Rock Mining Sub-Category .......................................................................... 70
10.2 Reserves, Production and Consumption ........................................................................................... 70
10.2.1 Total reserves .................................................................................................................................. 70
10.2.2 Production ........................................................................................................................................ 71
11 Salt .................................................................................................................................................. 80
11.1 Overview of Salt Mining Sub-Category ............................................................................................. 80
11.2 Reserves, Production and Consumption ........................................................................................... 81
11.2.1 Total reserves .................................................................................................................................. 81
11.2.2 Total production volume ................................................................................................................... 81
11.2.3 Total production value ...................................................................................................................... 83
11.2.4 Total consumption ............................................................................................................................ 85
11.3 Imports and Exports ......................................................................................................................... 86
11.3.1 Salt imports ...................................................................................................................................... 86
11.3.2 Salt exports ...................................................................................................................................... 87
11.4 Top Active Projects .......................................................................................................................... 88
11.5 Key Processing Units ....................................................................................................................... 88
11.6 News and Deals ............................................................................................................................... 89
13.1 About BRICdata ............................................................................................................................. 104
13.1.1 Areas of expertise .......................................................................................................................... 104
Figure 1: Australian Mining Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2016 ....................................................................................................... 9 Figure 2: Australian Mining Industry Production Volume by Mineral Category (% Share), 2011 and 2016 .................................................... 10 Figure 3: Australian Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2016 ......................................................................................................... 11 Figure 4: Australian Iron Ore Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2016 ................................................................................................... 12 Figure 5: Australian Bauxite Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2016 .................................................................................................... 13 Figure 6: Australian Phosphate Rock Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2016 ..................................................................................... 14 Figure 7: Australian Salt Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2016 .......................................................................................................... 14 Figure 8: Australian Electricity Production (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2007–2016 ............................................................................................... 18 Figure 9: Australian Automobile Production Trend (Units), 2007–2016 ............................................................................................................ 19 Figure 10: Australian Construction Net Output at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2007–2016............................................................................ 20 Figure 11: Australian GDP at Constant Prices (US$ Billion), 2007–2016 (Base Year 1999–2000)................................................................. 21 Figure 12: Australian Inflation Rate (%), 2007–2016 ......................................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 13: Australian Manufacturing Net Output at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2007–2016 ......................................................................... 23 Figure 14: Australian Electricity Consumption (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2007–2016 ......................................................................................... 24 Figure 15: Australian Crude Steel Production (Million Metric Tons), 2007–2016 ............................................................................................. 25 Figure 16: Australian Mining and Construction Equipment Industry (US$ Billion), 2007–2011 ....................................................................... 27 Figure 17: Global Copper Production and Reserves in Volume Terms (% Share), 2010 ................................................................................ 31 Figure 18: Global Industrial Diamond Production and Reserves in Volume Terms (% Share), 2010 .............................................................. 32 Figure 19: Global Iron Ore Production and Reserves in Volume Terms (% Share), 2010 ............................................................................... 33 Figure 20: Global Nickel Production and Reserves in Volume Terms (% Share), 2010 .................................................................................. 34 Figure 21: Global Bauxite Production and Reserves in Volume Terms (% Share), 2010 ................................................................................ 35 Figure 22: Global Gold Production and Reserves in Volume Terms (% Share), 2010 ..................................................................................... 36 Figure 23: Australian Mining Industry Dynamics: Coal Category ...................................................................................................................... 37 Figure 24: Australian Mining Industry Dynamics: Metallic Minerals Category .................................................................................................. 39 Figure 25: Australian Mining Industry Dynamics: Non-Metallic Minerals Category .......................................................................................... 42 Figure 26: Australian Mining Industry Dynamics: Mining Equipment Industry .................................................................................................. 44 Figure 27: Australian Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011....................................................................................................... 47 Figure 28: Australian Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), 2012–2016....................................................................................................... 48 Figure 29: Australian Coal Production Value (AUD Billion), 2007–2011 ........................................................................................................... 49 Figure 30: Australian Coal Production Value (AUD Million), 2012–2016 .......................................................................................................... 50 Figure 31: Australian Coal Consumption Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 .................................................................................................. 51 Figure 32: Australian Coal Import Volume (Million Tons), 2006–2010 .............................................................................................................. 52 Figure 33: Australian Coal Export Volume (Million Tons), 2006–2010.............................................................................................................. 53 Figure 34: Australian Leading Coal Producers (% Share), 2011 ....................................................................................................................... 57 Figure 35: Australian Iron Ore Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 ................................................................................................. 59 Figure 36: Australian Iron Ore Production Volume (Million Tons), 2012–2016 ................................................................................................. 60 Figure 37: Australian Iron Ore Production Value (AUD Million), 2007–2011 .................................................................................................... 61 Figure 38: Australian Iron Ore Production Value (AUD Million), 2012–2016 .................................................................................................... 62 Figure 39: Australian Iron Ore Consumption Value (Million Tons), 2007–2016................................................................................................ 63 Figure 40: Australian Iron Ore Import Volume (Million Tons), 2006–2011 ........................................................................................................ 64 Figure 41: Australian Iron Ore Export Volume (Million Tons), 2006–2011........................................................................................................ 65 Figure 42: Australian Leading Iron Ore Producers (% Share), 2011 ................................................................................................................. 69 Figure 43: Australian Phosphate Rock Production Volume (Thousand Tons), 2007–2011 ............................................................................. 71 Figure 44: Australian Phosphate Rock Production Volume (Thousand Tons), 2012–2016 ............................................................................. 72 Figure 45: Australian Phosphate Rock Production Value (AUD Million), 2007–2011....................................................................................... 73 Figure 46: Australian Phosphate Rock Production Value (AUD Million), 2012–2016....................................................................................... 74 Figure 47: Australian Phosphate Rock Consumption Volume (Thousand Tons), 2007–2011 ......................................................................... 75 Figure 48: Australian Phosphate Rock Import Volume (Thousand Tons), 2007–2011 .................................................................................... 76 Figure 49: Australian Phosphate Rock Export Volume (Thousand Tons), 2007–2011 .................................................................................... 77 Figure 50: Australian Salt Production Operations .............................................................................................................................................. 80 Figure 51: Australian Salt Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 ........................................................................................................ 81 Figure 52: Australian Salt Production Volume (Million Tons), 2012–2016 ........................................................................................................ 82 Figure 53: Australian Salt Production Value (AUD Million), 2007–2011 ........................................................................................................... 83 Figure 54: Australian Salt Production Value (AUD Million), 2012–2016 ........................................................................................................... 84 Figure 55: Australian Salt Consumption Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 .................................................................................................... 85 Figure 56: Australian Salt Import Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 ............................................................................................................... 86 Figure 57: Australian Salt Export Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 ............................................................................................................... 87 Figure 58: Australian Leading Mining Companies – Revenue Comparison (US$ Million), 2007–2011 ........................................................... 91
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Australian Mining Industry Outlook – Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and
Table 1: Investments and Announcements of Capacity Expansions by Key Australian Mining Operators in 2008–2009 .............................. 16 Table 2: Australian GDP at Constant Prices (US$ Billion), 2007–2016 (Base Year 1999–2000) .................................................................... 21 Table 3: Australian Inflation Rate (%), 2007–2016 ............................................................................................................................................ 22 Table 4: Australian Mining Industry Entry Strategy of Foreign Companies,...................................................................................................... 29 Table 5: Australian Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 .......................................................................................................... 47 Table 6: Australian Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), 2012–2016 .......................................................................................................... 48 Table 7: Australian Coal Production Value (AUD Billion), 2007–2011 .............................................................................................................. 49 Table 8: Australian Coal Production Value (US$ Billion), 2007–2011............................................................................................................... 49 Table 9: Australian Coal Production Value (AUD Billion), 2012–2016 .............................................................................................................. 50 Table 10: Australian Coal Production Value (US$ Billion), 2012–2016............................................................................................................. 50 Table 11: Australian Coal Consumption Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 .................................................................................................... 51 Table 12: Australian Coal Import Volume (Million Tons), 2006–2010 ............................................................................................................... 52 Table 13: Australian Coal Export Volume (Million Tons), 2006–2010 ............................................................................................................... 53 Table 14: Key Australian Coal Mining Projects, 2011–2016 .............................................................................................................................. 54 Table 15: Key Australian Coal Mines* ................................................................................................................................................................ 55 Table 16: Australian Iron Ore Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 .................................................................................................. 59 Table 17: Australian Iron Ore Production Volume (Million Tons), 2012–2016 .................................................................................................. 60 Table 18: Australian Iron Ore Production Value (AUD Million), 2007–2011 ..................................................................................................... 61 Table 19: Australian Iron Ore Production Value (US$ Million), 2007–2011 ...................................................................................................... 61 Table 20: Australian Iron Ore Production Value (AUD Million), 2012–2016 ..................................................................................................... 62 Table 21: Australian Iron Ore Production Value (US$ Million), 2012–2016 ...................................................................................................... 62 Table 22: Australian Iron Ore Consumption Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 .............................................................................................. 63 Table 23: Australian Iron Ore Import Volume (Million Tons), 2006–2011 ......................................................................................................... 64 Table 24: Australian Iron Ore Export Volume (Million Tons), 2006–2011 ......................................................................................................... 65 Table 25: Key Projects ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 66 Table 26: Key Australian Iron Ore Processing Units .......................................................................................................................................... 67 Table 27: Australian Phosphate Rock Production Volume (Thousand Tons), 2007–2011 .............................................................................. 71 Table 28: Australian Phosphate Rock Production Volume (Thousand Tons), 2012–2016 .............................................................................. 72 Table 29: Australian Phosphate Rock Production Value (AUD Million), 2007–2011 ........................................................................................ 73 Table 30: Australian Phosphate Rock Production Value (US$ Million), 2007–2011 ........................................................................................ 73 Table 31: Australian Phosphate Rock Production Value (AUD Million), 2012–2016 ........................................................................................ 74 Table 32: Australian Phosphate Rock Production Value (US$ Million), 2012–2016 ........................................................................................ 74 Table 33: Australian Phosphate Rock Consumption Volume (Thousand Tons), 2007–2011 .......................................................................... 75 Table 34: Australian Phosphate Rock Import Volume (Thousand Tons), 2007–2011...................................................................................... 76 Table 35: Australian Phosphate Rock Export Volume (Thousand Tons), 2007–2011 ..................................................................................... 77 Table 36: Australian Salt Production Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 ......................................................................................................... 81 Table 37: Australian Salt Production Volume (Million Tons), 2012–2016 ......................................................................................................... 82 Table 38: Australian Salt Production Value (AUD Million), 2007–2011............................................................................................................. 83 Table 39: Australian Salt Production Value (US$ Million), 2007–2011 ............................................................................................................. 83 Table 40: Australian Salt Production Value (AUD Million), 2012–2016............................................................................................................. 84 Table 41: Australian Salt Production Value (US$ Million), 2012–2016 ............................................................................................................. 84 Table 42: Australian Salt Consumption Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 ..................................................................................................... 85 Table 43: Australian Salt Import Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 ................................................................................................................ 86 Table 44: Australian Salt Export Volume (Million Tons), 2007–2011 ................................................................................................................ 87 Table 45: Key Australian Salt Mining Processing Units ..................................................................................................................................... 88 Table 46: Production Capacities of Leading Australian Salt Producers ............................................................................................................ 89 Table 47: Australian Leading Mining Companies – Financial Comparison (US$ Million), 2007–2011 ............................................................ 91 Table 48: Exchange Rate (US$–AUD), 2007–2016......................................................................................................................................... 106
INDUSTRY DYNAMICS: FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS
Australian Mining Industry Outlook – Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and