Perspectives on Unmanned Air Cargo · 2016-12-06 · Perspectives on Unmanned Air Cargo Alain Lumbroso Economist International Transport Forum - OECD [email protected] Unmanned

Perspectives on Unmanned Air Cargo

Alain LumbrosoEconomist

International Transport Forum - OECD

Alainlumbrosooecdorg

Unmanned Cargo Aircraft Conference

The Hague February 5th 2015

Content

bull Introduction to the ITF

bull Uses for UCA

bull Challenges for UCA

bull Aircraft platform perspectives

bull Parting thoughts

2

What is the ITF

3

54 member countries ofwhich 21 non-OECD

Housed by OECD

Council of Ministersof Transport rotating Annual presidency

Legal instruments EuropeanMultilateral Quota System(Road Freight)

Presently preparing for expansion of membership

4

Annual Summit

Ministerial Meeting and Declaration from Ministers

Ministersrsquo Roundtables

Panel Discussions with Ministers Industry Research Civil Society

Bilaterals and Networking

Exhibition

1100 participants (2014)

5

Think Tank

Evidence-based research and analysis

Data and statistics

Identification of best-practice policies

Institutionalised in OECDITF Joint Transport Research Centre (JTRC)

Transportation demand forecast to 2050

Some aviation research projects

The case for aviation liberalistion (on-going)

Airport capacity expansion in large urban areas

Expanding Airport Capacity Competition and Connectivity The case of Gatwick and Heathrow

Air service liberation and airline alliances

Contemporary Airport Demand Forecasting

bull In the Framework of the JTRC (within regular budget)

ndashRound Tables Events for deep discussion of topical issues

(long tradition)

ndashCollaborative Research Projects with active participation

of the member countriesrsquo research institutions

ndashIRTAD and Transport Outlook

bull With additional resources

ndashHorizontal collaboration with OECD directorates

ndashCountry Specific Policy Analysis Projects (quick response)

ndashProjects with direct engagement of companies in the

framework of the CPB ndash Corporate Partnership Board

Main activities on the think-tank component of ITF

The ITF and Unmanned Vehicles

bull Two ITF projects on unmanned transportation

ndash Integrating new technology into the existing regulatory framework

ndash Modelled wide use of automated and shared road vehicles in Lisbon

bull Conclusions find that new technology is highly

distributive forces a rethink of mobility and

regulations

bull Innovators must remain in lock step with regulators

bull Role for ITF Conduct research in emerging

unmanned vehicle issues and inform decision-makers

7

Unmanned transportation Revolutionary

8

Albert Einstein

ATV 2013

TrAAin

DFW 1973

Peoplemover

Disneyland 1967

OrlyVal

Orly 1991

SkyTrain

Vancouver

1985

AGV Rotterdam

1989

Soyuz

1967

Metro Line14

Paris 1998

Autopilot B-777

Autopilot B-707

Mercedes F015

2015

The revolution is not as much the fact that it is unmanned

as the fact technology is increasingly autonomous

Potential applications for UCAs

bull New point-to-point hub bypass services providing

smaller communities with enhanced global

connectivity

bull Service to remote andor inhospitable areas with

limited infrastructure (northern latitudes remote

areas deserts oil platforms archipelagoes)

bull Ad-hoc charter service with limited repositioning

flights high aircraft utilization

bull Low cost alternative for smaller loads to manned

air cargo while maintaining the speed advantage

of air

9

Outlook

bull Boeing expects 2170 new freighters

delivered by 2033 including 962 20t

freighters

bull However air cargo capacity is

increasingly shifting from freighters to

passenger aircraft

bull Air cargo activity growing faster in

express than freight or air mail

bull Is UCA enough of a game changer to

augment overall air cargo or simply take

a share of the market Creation or

substitution Or both

10

Source Boeing WACF (2013)

Regulatory context

bull Unmanned flying is not a new regulatory concern

despite recent attention on drones

bull Recent attention focused on privately operated UAVs

bull Ultimate step in a half century of depopulating of the

flight deck (navigator flight engineer radio

operator)will require strong buy-in from the

regulator

bull May need regulation to hard-wire adherence to no fly

zones (ie regulated electronic geofencing)

11

No aircraft capable of being flown without a pilot shall be flown without a pilot over the territory of a

contracting State without special authorization by that State and in accordance with the terms of such

authorization Each contracting State undertakes to insure that the flight of such aircraft without a pilot in

regions open to civil aircraft shall be so controlled as to obviate danger to civil aircraft

- Chicago Convention 1944

Remotely controlled vs fully autonomousHow much automation for UCA

bull Maintaining human command can facilitate interaction with air

traffic control

bull Human command could better address emergencies and would

facilitate interactions between manned and unmanned aircraft

bull Social license less problematic if some human command is

maintained

bull Could human command and automated control of the aircraft be

separated functions

Buthellip

bull K-Max accident (2013) in Afghanistan was due to human

communication errors ndash would a similar accident happen in a

manned aircraft

bull UAVs lack the redundancy that make manned aircraft so safe

12

Economic challenges

bull Payload capacity must be sufficient to be economically viable

bull Some labour savings offset by operator costs increased

ground handling

bull Large UCA to compete with converted B-737A-320 (20t

payload)

bull Air freight do not seek direct routes

bull How do UCA fit within the context of air transport

agreements

bull Long range UCA will generate similar yields than manned

aircraft ndash will they have the same economies of scale

bull Limited market may prove difficult to amortize RampD costs

13

The economics of manufacturing and of air cargo will

determine whether UCA

Air Navigation Challenges

All UAVs

bull Safe interaction between UCA ATC and manned aircraft is

essential

bull UCA must be able to acknowledge and respond to ATC

commands in controlled airspace and maintain traffic and terrain

avoidance in uncontrolled airspace

bull UAV-dedicated corridors feasible in some non-congestedremote

airspace

UCArsquos added challenge

bull Operating safely in high-density heavy air traffic environment

14

Getting UCA and ANS to work together is likely the

greatest operational challenge

Legal challenges

bullHow do existing laws apply to UCA

bullDoes a remote operator have the same

legal authority and liability as a pilot in

charge

bullWhat are the certification requirements for

a remote operator

bullUCA development needs to be in step with

regulatory development

15

Regulatory changes require considerable lead-up time

and forward planning Are regulators ready for UCA

Technological challenges

bull The technology to have a UCA already exists ndash

requires fine tuning for mass market commercial

application

bull Human override possible at all times

bull Aircraft must be hacker-proof

bull As UCAs gain in size it will create security-related

concerns (ie can a UCA be weaponized)

bull UCA operator training programs will need to be

developed will skilled labour be an issue What can

we learn from the militaryrsquos experience with UAV

16

The Aircraft Platform

bull UCA can take many forms

ndash Conventional aircraft

ndash Helicopter (K-Max)

ndash Airship (LDTV)

ndash Purpose-design UCA

bull Military technology adapted to civilian use would

significantly lower development costs but make

UCA development dependent on military needs

bull Aircraft would need to be compatible with

existing air navigation requirements and ground

equipment

17

Perspectives for Conventional Aircraft

bull Converting existing manned aircraft into unmanned

aircraft would require mostly avionics changes

bull Main savings derived from labour Savings increases

with stage length when fuel is a relatively smaller

cost factor

bull Could be combined with automated taxiing (ie

Taxibot)

bull Integrates well within existing flight traffic patterns

bull Interfaces well with existing ground equipment

18

Perspectives for helicopters

bull K-Max has demonstrated the feasibility of the concept as

both a small freighter and a waterbomber

bull VTOL ideal for areas with no infrastructure or oil platforms

bull Limited range

bull Limited payload capacity (2-3t) best suited for emergency

transport or military operations (avoiding casualties) but

negates economies of scale Is there a significant civilian

market

bull Helicopters not a major factor in the civilian air cargo

market

19

Perspectives for Airships

bull Airships are targeting similar markets to large

UCA would the answer be unmanned airships

bull Airships fare relatively badly on the Gabrielli-Von

Karman line expanding high energy for low speed

bull Major airship-related issues include the need for

specialized ground crew ballast to compensate

empty loads limited markets limited utilization

20

Lighter Than Air is not without its technical problems Although modern

technology may be able to overcome these problems the ultimate issue

could be the economic feasibility of Lighter Than Air

Interagency Workshop on Lighter than Air Vehicles 1975

Is combining UAV and

airships putting too much risk

on UCA

Perspective for Custom designed aircraft

bull Best aircraft to fully maximize the benefits of

unmanned flight

bull Makes best use of fuselage volume

bull Very high altitudelow speed cruise to minimize fuel

burn

bull Could be designed to operate from gravel runways

snow or VSTOL

bull Potential to leverage military use to amortize

development costs

21

Is the UCA market large enough to off-set aircraft

development costs

Some parting thoughts

bull Since the advent of the jet age civil aviation has been

evolutionary not revolutionary

bull The challenge for civilian UCA is not as much technological as

it is

Economic Are labour savings significant enough Is the model

economically sound from an air cargo and an aircraft manufacturing

perspective

Coordination Enabling UCA to share common airspace with manned

civilian aircraft

Regulatory Ensuring regulations do not impede progress while still

maintaining aviationrsquos highest safety standards

Social license Unmanned aircraft must be perceived as safe by the non-

flying public

bull ITF can help by raising awareness of UCA with member

countries and at the Summit panel on air freight and Ministerrsquos

roundtable on drones and autonomous driving

22

Thank you very much Dank Je

23

2015 Summit on

Transport Trade and Tourism

27 ndash 29 May 2015

Leipzig Germany

http2015internationaltransportforumorg