8/7/2019 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/people-power-revolutions-in-tunisia-and-egypt-implications-for-regional-security 1/37 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt: implications for regional security and democratization in the Middle East People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt: implications for regional security and democratization in the Middle East By: Javad Heydarian By: Javad Heydarian QuickTime and a decompressor are needed to see this picture.
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People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East
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8/7/2019 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East
A Revolution long in the making?A Revolution long in the making?
R evolution: ³an overall system change, oftenthrough violence, where an existing politicalregime and dominant social order is replaced witha radically new sets of institutions, inter-classrelations, and political system.´
People Power: ³non-violent mass uprisings, whichled to the downfall of autocratic regimes,characterized by a relatively stable and orderlytransition to democracy.´
R evolution: ³an overall system change, oftenthrough violence, where an existing politicalregime and dominant social order is replaced witha radically new sets of institutions, inter-classrelations, and political system.´
People Power: ³non-violent mass uprisings, whichled to the downfall of autocratic regimes,characterized by a relatively stable and orderlytransition to democracy.´
8/7/2019 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East
An Active Political Volcano:An Active Political Volcano:
In March 2010, in an Article, entitled ³Egypt¶sImpending Political Earthquake´, I laid downthe following arguments:
1. Egypt, one of the most powerful U.S. alliesin the Arab world, is sitting on a politicalvolcano ready to erupt at any moment.
2. The United States can play a productive rolein the transformation of Egyptian politics by pressuring the government towards reformand preventing hardline Israel from
interfering in Egypt¶s politics.
In March 2010, in an Article, entitled ³Egypt¶sImpending Political Earthquake´, I laid downthe following arguments:
1. Egypt, one of the most powerful U.S. alliesin the Arab world, is sitting on a politicalvolcano ready to erupt at any moment.
2. The United States can play a productive rolein the transformation of Egyptian politics by pressuring the government towards reformand preventing hardline Israel from
interfering in Egypt¶s politics.
8/7/2019 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East
Despite decades of stability and economic growth,there is rampant poverty, huge inequality, and asociety-wide yearn for political change: the 2011upcoming elections serving as a watershed.
Prominent personalities such as Elbaradei and AmrMousa will seek presidency.
Egypt¶s complicity in the µGaza siege¶ is a potentialrallying point, while Islamic consciousness is shapingthe growing pluralism in the social landscape.
Despite decades of stability and economic growth,there is rampant poverty, huge inequality, and asociety-wide yearn for political change: the 2011upcoming elections serving as a watershed.
Prominent personalities such as Elbaradei and AmrMousa will seek presidency.
Egypt¶s complicity in the µGaza siege¶ is a potentialrallying point, while Islamic consciousness is shapingthe growing pluralism in the social landscape.
8/7/2019 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East
T he upcoming election is also the perfect opportunity forprogressive forces, inside and outside Egypt, to advancedemocratic ideals that are more likely than ever to translateinto concrete political results. People in Egypt havecontinuously shown their willingness to embrace amore democratic and even more liberal society. The2011 elections could be the perfect opportunity for real political change.
A democratic political transition could verywell take place in Egypt in 2011. But it will happen only if the United States shifts to anon-interventionist policy vis-à-vis Egypt «
T he upcoming election is also the perfect opportunity forprogressive forces, inside and outside Egypt, to advancedemocratic ideals that are more likely than ever to translateinto concrete political results. People in Egypt havecontinuously shown their willingness to embrace amore democratic and even more liberal society. The2011 elections could be the perfect opportunity for real political change.
A democratic political transition could verywell take place in Egypt in 2011. But it will happen only if the United States shifts to anon-interventionist policy vis-à-vis Egypt «
8/7/2019 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East
The Turkish model ± the state makes a transition toa post-Mubarak scenario, but the military retains acentral political role. In case the democratic processfails to create a stable political consensus or seemsto be exploiting populism at the expense of the state,the military will step-in. The military will also do itsbest to retain control on or influence the defense andforeign policy (e.g. ties with the U.S. and Israel)
The Pakistani model ± there would be a transitionto a post-Mubarak situation, but the elections wouldonly bring-in a µsham¶ civilian government, which is
not in control of all key organs of the state. Inreality, a parallel state would run all intelligence,security, and defense organs of the state - the threatof coups would constantly threaten the governemnt.
The Turkish model ± the state makes a transition toa post-Mubarak scenario, but the military retains acentral political role. In case the democratic processfails to create a stable political consensus or seemsto be exploiting populism at the expense of the state,the military will step-in. The military will also do itsbest to retain control on or influence the defense andforeign policy (e.g. ties with the U.S. and Israel)
The Pakistani model ± there would be a transitionto a post-Mubarak situation, but the elections wouldonly bring-in a µsham¶ civilian government, which is
not in control of all key organs of the state. Inreality, a parallel state would run all intelligence,security, and defense organs of the state - the threatof coups would constantly threaten the governemnt.
8/7/2019 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East
The Indonesian model ± there would be a µregimechange¶, and the introduction of popular electionswould usher in a period of stable democratic politics± probably under the leadership of Elbaradei andother secular democrats - and graduallydemocratization would turn the military into a moreµprofessionalized¶ institution.
The Iranian model - a new regime with a markedlydifferent ideology takes over the regime, andfundamentally alters the domestic political order andthe foreign policy.
The Indonesian model ± there would be a µregimechange¶, and the introduction of popular electionswould usher in a period of stable democratic politics± probably under the leadership of Elbaradei andother secular democrats - and graduallydemocratization would turn the military into a moreµprofessionalized¶ institution.
The Iranian model - a new regime with a markedlydifferent ideology takes over the regime, andfundamentally alters the domestic political order andthe foreign policy.
8/7/2019 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East
The Changing Balance of PowerThe Changing Balance of Power
In 1979, US¶ top ally, Iran, makes a radical shift inits orientation, while Egypt becomes a staunch allywith its peace treaty with Israel in the same year.
Mubarak and BenA
li out of power, and other USallies in Algeria, Jordan, Yemen, and Bahrainunder increasing popular pressure
Turkey and Iran - bolstered by its rising allies inLebanon, Palestine, and Iraq - as the pivotal,independent, and assertive indigenous powers inthe region
In 1979, US¶ top ally, Iran, makes a radical shift inits orientation, while Egypt becomes a staunch allywith its peace treaty with Israel in the same year.
Mubarak and BenA
li out of power, and other USallies in Algeria, Jordan, Yemen, and Bahrainunder increasing popular pressure
Turkey and Iran - bolstered by its rising allies inLebanon, Palestine, and Iraq - as the pivotal,independent, and assertive indigenous powers inthe region
8/7/2019 People Power Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt- Implications for Regional Security and Democratization in the Middle East