Paulo Afonso Romano Deputy Secretary for Agriculture, Cattle Raising and Supply POLICY OPTIONS FOR COPING WITH AGROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES Belo Horizonte-MG JULY/2010 TALLER INTERNACIONAL SOBRE LA CRISIS DE SOBREVIVENCIA DE LOS PRODUCTORES RURALES SERVIÇOS DE CLIMA Y TEMPO
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Paulo Afonso Romano Deputy Secretary for Agriculture, Cattle Raising and Supply POLICY OPTIONS FOR COPING WITH AGROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES.
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Paulo Afonso RomanoDeputy Secretary for Agriculture, Cattle Raising and Supply
POLICY OPTIONS FOR COPING
WITH AGROMETEOROLOGICAL
RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES
Belo Horizonte-MG
JULY/2010
TALLER INTERNACIONAL SOBRE LA CRISIS DE SOBREVIVENCIA DE
LOS PRODUCTORES RURALES
SERVIÇOS DE CLIMA Y TEMPO
INDEX
2
GROWTH OF WORLD POPULATION
GLOBAL SOCIETY DEMAND
POLITICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGES
TRANSITION OF THE AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURE
WORLD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF GRAINS
BRAZILIAN EXPORTS
BRAZILIAN AGRIBUSINESS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
PARADIGM SHIFT
NEW DEMANDS OF THE CONTEMPORARY SOCIETY
MANAGERS OF THE RURAL AREA
MINAS GERAIS – SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE
GROWTH OF WORLD POPULATION
2
1950 2,5 BILLION INHAB.
1975 4,1 BILLION INHAB.
2000 6,1 BILLION INHAB.
2025 8,0 BILLION INHAB.
2050 9,2 BILLION INHAB.
DEMAND FOR FOOD/ ENERGY/ FIBERS
3
GLOBAL SOCIETY DEMAND
37%63%
45% 55%
140 MILLION PEOPLE
EXITED THE POVERTY LINE
1998US$37,5 1 TRILLION
2008US$68,6 TRILLION
60% OF THE POPULATION IN THE CITIES
ENERGY AND
FOOD
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
EMERGING COUNTRIES AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
WORLD GDP
Source: United Nations: World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (2007)Design: SEAPA
4
• China: 19,8%
• India: 17,1%
• EU: 7,3%
• EUA: 4,5%
• Indonesia: 3,5¨%
• Brazil: 2,9%
• Pakistan: 2,6%
• Others: 42,3%
20086,69 billion inhabitants
4
INDUSTRIALIZATION AND URBANIZATION
POLITICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGES
5Source: IBGE – Demographic Censuses of 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1991 and 2000 / PNAD 2006, 2007and 2008.Design: SEAPA
2,93,03,03,24,04,55,5
6,05,5
17,016,716,514,7
11,8
9,2
6,2
4,02,3
1950 1960 1970 1980 1991 2000 2006 2007 2008
População Rural População Urbana
70% of the population of Minas Gerais
(7,8 million inhabit.)14% of the population of
Minas Gerais (19,9 million inhab.)
MINAS GERAIS
Rural population Urban population
TRANSITION OF THE AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURE
EXPANSION-AGRICULTURAL BORDER TOWARDS CENTRAL BR - CERRADO
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: “GREEN REVOLUTION”: AGRICULTURAL POLICY: SNCR, PGPM, PROAGRO, Research and Rural Extension.
6Source: CONAB – Historical series / Monitoring of the Brazilian Harvest – Grains, June, 2010. Design: SEAPA