Challenges to coping strategies with agrometeorological ... · Challenges to coping strategies with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties - regional perspectives ... grade that

Challenges to coping strategies with Challenges to coping strategies with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties agrometeorological risks and uncertainties -- regional regional

perspectivesperspectivesSouth America South America

Ing. Constantino Alarcón Ing. Constantino Alarcón National National SService of Meteorology and Hydrologyervice of Meteorology and Hydrology

PerPerúú

New Delhi, India, 25 - 27 October 2006

INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON AGROMETEOROLOGICAL RISK MANAGEMENT: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

REGIONAL ASSOCIATION III (SOUTH AMERICA)

AGENDA

INTRODUCTION

NATURAL PHENOMENA THAT AFFECT AGRICULTURE IN SOUTH LATIN AMERICA

ROLE OF NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES IN DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN SOUTH AMERICA


INTRODUCTION


• The climate is a natural resource that affects the agrarian production. Its influence in a determined culture, also does not depend only on the climatic characteristics of the locality in which it is located, but to a great extent of the conditions in which the production is developed. That is to say, the level of exhibition of the culture to the climate has as much importance, like the vulnerability level.


H

ANTICYCLONEOF THE

SOUTH PACIFIC

PERUVIANCURRENT

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCEZONE

FRONTAL SYSTEMS

L

BOLIVIAN LOW

HANTICYCLONEOF THE

SOUTH ATLANTIC


FRONTAL SYSTEMS

H

ANTICYCLONEOF THE

SOUTH PACIFIC

PERUVIANCURRENT


L

BOLIVIAN LOW

HANTICYCLONEOF THE

SOUTH ATLANTIC


FRONTAL SYSTEMS

H

ANTICYCLONEOF THE

SOUTH PACIFIC

PERUVIANCURRENT


L

BOLIVIAN LOW

HANTICYCLONEOF THE

SOUTH ATLANTIC


FRONTAL SYSTEMS

H

ANTICYCLONEOF THE

SOUTH PACIFIC

PERUVIANCURRENT


L

BOLIVIAN LOW

HANTICYCLONEOF THE

SOUTH ATLANTIC


FRONTAL SYSTEMS

H

ANTICYCLONEOF THE

SOUTH PACIFIC

PERUVIANCURRENT


L

BOLIVIAN LOW

HANTICYCLONEOF THE

SOUTH ATLANTIC


CONDITIONSCONDITIONS NIÑONIÑO

El Niño affects agriculture, the provision of potable water, the generation of energy, the health and the slumses, the transport, and the infrastructure of the communications, with negative economic repercussions including low production, diminution of exports and increase of imports.

The events El Niño have shown a tendency to happen with more frequency in recent decades.

• Weakening of the Anticyclone of the South Pacific. • Weakening of tradewinds. • Formation of one 2da band of the ZCIT


EFFECTS OF THE PHENOMENON THE NIEFFECTS OF THE PHENOMENON THE NIÑÑO/OSCILACION OF THE SOUTH O/OSCILACION OF THE SOUTH (ENOS) IN SOUTH AMERICA(ENOS) IN SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRO OESTE

There are not evidences of marked effects of the rains

ECUADOR, PERU, BOLIVIA, CHILE

In the western coast Intense rains in summer. Rain absence in summer on the Andean regions of Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia

COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA

SURINAME, GUAYANA FRANCESA

Precipitation reduction in most of the year, except of March to June. Colombia receives intense rains in summer

NORTE

Absence of rains in the northeast of Amazonía. Increase of probability of forest fires

NOR ESTE

Absence of rains during the rainy station of February to May

SUR ESTE

Moderate increase of the temperatures. Change in rains does not exist.

SUR

Moderate precipitations in the spring and intense of May to June

ARGENTINA, PARAGUAY, URUGUAY

Precipitations above the stocking to the northeast of Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, mainly of spring to summer..


South America Number of Natural Disasters, Loss of Human Life y Economic Losses

(1980-2005)

Flood

Slides

Earthquake

Windstorm

Drought

Extreme Temperature

Wild fires

Volcano

Epidemic, famine, insects

Tsunami

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Number of Natural Disasters Loss of Human Life Economic Losses

More than 80% of natural disasters are related to hydrometeorolo

30% of loss of life are related to hydrometeorological factors

75% of economic losses are related to hydrometeorological factor

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium


NATURAL PHENOMENA THAT AFFECT AGRICULTURE IN SOUTH

LATIN AMERICA


Strong winds• The wind with high speeds not only favors an excessive evapotranspiración but also it

can provide rupture of parts of the plant

Floods

•Associated mainly to abundant precipitations that bring with himself “swellings” of the natural channels of the rivers.

•During a rainy event the drainage systems collapse, being unableto evacuate the volumes of water that they are entering to an area.

Droughts

•To the drought it is considered him as a natural disaster that is originated by precipitation deficiency in an extended period of time, causing damages in the development of the different activities from the population.

•The effects of the drought also influence not only in agriculture and the agricultural production but in all the alive organisms, including the species domestic servants and wild of plants and animals.

THREATS IN SOUTH AMERICA


Climatic global changesThe effect of the changes anticipated on the yields is uncertain, they conjugate positive and negative actions.In relation to the temperature, the increase of this in cold climates is positive. In warmer climates the increase of the temperature can be I criticize when increasing thermal stress and to accelerate the development cycles of the cultures.The decrease of the precipitation, in arid, semi-arid areas and drysubhúmedas can reduce the yields of the cultivations, while in the humid areas with precipitation excess a decrease in the quantity of the fallen precipitation can be beneficial.

Slips The topography of the region makes that most of the slips happen in hillsides and punctual places

Volcanic eruptionsThe gas emanations block the solar radiation causing cooling and

reduction of the luminosity.

The mineral deposit that in high concentrations is toxic for the animals, generates great damages to agriculture and the cattle ranch.

19971997

20052005


The variability of the climate (Phenomenon El Niño)One of the factors agitators of the climate is El Niño phenomenon. It elevates the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean in the western coasts, modifies the patterns of atmospheric circulation, the pressures, precipitations, the temperatures, etcThe Boy, produces rains by on normal, simultaneously that the droughts in several

places


VULNERABILITIESThe vulnerability of the systems is reflected in

the Region for:Localization of the activities in places of riskExcessive pressure which the natural resources as a result of the marginality are put underThe poverty The lack of social organizationLack of politicians for the management of the atmosphere and of territorial classificationExcessive centralism and bureaucracy of the national organismsLittle technicality of the agricultureLack of the population's education to prevent and to face the risks.


Vulnerability of the natural Forests, prairies, mountain Ecosystems and the agricultureThe deforestation of the tropical rainy forests this altering the hydrological cycle of these areas provoking a decrease of the precipitations like consequence of the decrease of the evapotranspiration. The sobrepasturing and the inadequate handling practices, areas of high desertification are generatedThe mountain ecosystems play an important role in south America:

They constitute human establishment placesThey exercise a function hydrological regulator and at the same time the gradient altitudinal created by the mountain range of Andes is source of a rich biodiversity. The snowy ones are at the present time threatened by the global heating they are altering the régimes of glide of the rivers.A great majority of the agricultural lands suffers degradation processes.


The unirrigated land agriculture this in precipitation function, making them vulnerable front the annual variations and year to year of the precipitations.

I use inappropriate of the natural resources they have made him to be carried out agricultural activities in areas whose fragility doesn't allow this practice

The not very efficient watering systems are responsible for the salinization of the water of the rivers, sedimentation of beds, reservoirs and agricultural lands


To reduce the disasters and to reach a development grade that offers bigger security to the region, it is needed a political wide commitment and the concerted action of towns, national governments and regional organisms.

Economy of the CountriesThe macroeconomic stability reached in some countries this allowing the governments to respond well to the impacts of the disasters and be investing more in the prevention and the reduction of the risks.

Political of governmentSeveral governments have placed the prevention of disasters in their political calendar.

CAPACITIES AND RESOURCES OF THE REGION TO MAKE IN FRONT OF THE DISASTERS


Specialized institutions • Countries are creating interinstitutional and sectorial systems integrated of

prevention and answer to the disasters• Other countries are beginning the modernization of the national institutions

specialized in disasters. Center International for the Investigation of the Phenomenon El Niño (CIFEN)

Prevention of Disasters in the Andean (PREDECAN) Community The Net of Social Studies in Prevention of Disasters in Latin America (La RED)Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) Institutions like the UNDP, UNESCO, OMM, FAO, CAF, IDB and BM are promoting the formation of the scientific and sectorial necessary capacity to reduce the risk. The non government organizations ONGs.

Identification and analysis of the risks• The countries of the region should identify the natural main threats to which are

exposed, their frequency, intensity, duration and localization (maps of risks).• The identification of certain risks is used to define the necessary measures of

prevention and mitigation and focalize public investments and deprived in sure places.


Mitigation•The investments in prevention are effective to avoid or to reduce the damages when disasters take place.

•The norms of territorial ordering, codes of construction, professional qualification and campaigns of awareness, are also instruments to reduce the impact of the disasters.

Monitored nets and Alert early•Modernization of the net of information hydrometeorology•Modernization of meteorological services and the means to make presage in the region.

•It improves of the systems of alert early •It improves in the communication among the scientists that evaluate the atmospheric and hydrological conditions and those in charge of giving the early alert are fundamental to reduce their impact


Information about the risk for the taking of decisions

• The projections about the incidence and the estimates of the impact of the natural disasters are essential to prioritize the preventive actions

• The information on the risk is crucial for the adoption of policies of prevention and preparation and for the establishment of specific objectives and priorities in the sectorial investments.

• It is necessary to carry out investigation in the region, with the purpose of analyzing the existent evaluation methodologies, their uses and to provide the outstanding and precise information to those in charge of the formulation of political, action plans for the prevention and the institutional development


• The mitigación of the impacts of the natural phenomena requires of multisectorial actions

• Definition of a strategy of use of the floor on the base of the predicted risks. • Improvement of the watering techniques and efficient use of the water. • Adoption of systems of handling of the floor to minimize the erosion so much

in rainy events as dry. • Improvement of the systems of handling of the prairies and of adjustment of

the animal load to the capacity of sustentation of the vegetation. • To foment the creation of systems of alert early of the natural catastrophic

phenomena • To evaluate and to zone areas of risk putting in practical plans of territorial

classification that minimize the exhibition from the population to the natural catastrophes.

DEFINITION OF POLITICIANS FOR THE PREVENTION AND MITIGATION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE NATURAL

PHENOMENA IN THE AGRICULTURE


• Several of these actions they can it turns benefited by the existence of a system of alert early of the climatic adverse phenomena.

• An early alert will contribute to reduce the uncertainties by means of a better sizing of the risk.

• One has a information accumulation on the generation and evolution of the climatic phenomena, information that is generated daily by different organizations. At the present time there are several systems of prognosis of ElNiño, between whom they emphasize: NCEP-NOAA, of the National Ocean Atmosphere Administration, the USA; MM5 of UCAR, for University Corporation Atmospheric Research, the USA

At the farmers' level• To adapt the strategies of use of the ground, to select to seeds and types of

cultures, to change dates of sowing of the cultures to reduce losses.• To carry out small works for the efficient handling of the water and the

prevention of floods or erosion of floors. • Adjust of the animal load in shepherding lands according to the forecasts of the

climatic risk

TOOLS OF PREVENTION AND OF MITIGATION


•To implement and to operate systems of alert early regional•To elaborate national and regional letters of territorial vulnerability•To improve the efficiency of use of the water•To implement pursuit Systems by means of environmental indicators

•To support the programs of the biodiversity and of the desertification

•Development of territorial systems of information and their applications to the territorial classification

BASE OF A PROGRAM OF PREVENTION AND MITIGATION OF THE IMPACTS OF THE NATURAL PHENOMENA


ROLE OF NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND

HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES IN DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

IN SOUTH AMERICA


CRED # of events CRED average SURVEYFlood Flood FloodSlides Earthquakes DroughtEarthquake s Volcanic events Strong windsStrong winds Slides Slides Drought Drought Forest or wild land fireExtreme Temperature Strong winds EarthquakesForest or wild land fire Extreme Temperature Volcanic events Volcanic events Forest or wild land fire TsunamiTsunami Tsunami Extreme Temperature

Source: WMO (DPM)


LOWIMPACT

River f

loodin

gFla

sh floo

dDr

ough

tStr

ong w

inds

Land

slide

or m

udsli

deEa

rthqu

akes

Forest

or w

ild la

nd fire

Thun

derst

orm

or ligh

tning

Hails

torm

Avalan

che

Tornad

oHe

avy s

now

Cold

wave

Coas

tal floo

ding

Hydrom

eteorolo

gical

haz

to av

iationTsun

ami

Volca

nic ev

ents

Heat w

ave

Dense f

og

Tropic

al cyclo

ne

Smok

e, Du

st or Haz

eFre

ezing

rain

Waterbo

rne h

azards

Marine

haza

rds

Storm

surge

Sand

storm

Airborne

haza

rdou

s Sub

stances

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

NMS NHS Combined service Other

HIGHIMPACT Hazards are classified according to their average impact

Number of countries issuing warnings

Source: WMO (DPM)


Rive

r floo

ding

Flash

floo

dDr

ough

t

Stron

g wind

s

Land

slide

or m

udsli

deEa

rthqu

akes

Forest

or w

ild la

nd fire

Thun

derst

orm

or ligh

tning

Hails

torm

Avala

nche

Tornad

oHe

avy s

now

Cold

wave

Coas

tal floo

ding

Hydrom

eteorolo

gical

haz

to av

iationTsun

ami

Volca

nic ev

ents

Heat w

ave

Dens

e fog

Tropic

al cyclo

ne

Smok

e, Du

st or Haz

eFre

ezing

rain

Waterbo

rne h

azards

Marine

haza

rds

Storm

surge

Sand

storm

Airborne

haza

rdou

s Sub

stances

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

HIGHIMPACT

Hazards are classified according to their average impact LOWIMPACT

Number of countries keeping data archives

Source: WMO (DPM)


Are there dedicated 24-hour Warning Services within the NMHSs ?

60%

Is there a national legislation governing DRR? yes, 100%Is this legislation defining NMHSs’ role in DRR? 50%

NMHSs’ Forecasting capacities: Nowcast 80%24 hours 100%3-5 days 100%7 days 10%10 days 20%Seasonal 80%

NMHSs participate in... National structure for DRR 100%Disaster prevention 90%Emergency planning and preparedness 100%Emergency response 100%Reconstruction 80%

Source: WMO (DPM)


National Meteorological Services with independent agrometeorological unitsArgentina Bolivia Brazil Colombia Chile Ecuador Paraguay Perú Uruguay Venezuela

Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes No Yes Yes No

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Colom

bia

Chile

Ecuador

Paraguay

Perú

Uruguay

Venezuela

Current availability of data (70%) Yes No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No

Analytical tools (80%) Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No

Methods of provision of operational agrometeorological services (80%) No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No

Deficiencies and limitations in developing agrometeorological work

NETWORK OF STATIONS AGROMETEOROLÓGICAS

• Lack to renew technology of the stations

• To improve its cover and density

• To equip them with communication systems


Agrometeorological services provided by NMHSs A

rgentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Colom

bia

Chile

Ecuador

Paraguay

Perú

Uruguay

Venezuela

Issuing regular agrometeorological bulletins and advisories (10%) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Issuing early warnings/alerts as appropriate (90%) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No

Helping with strategic studies (agroecological zoning) (70%) No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes No Yes

Assessment of the impact of extreme events (30%) No Yes No No No Yes No Yes No No


Important agrometeorological services provided by NMHSS

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Colom

bia

Chile

Ecuador

Paraguay

Perú

Uruguay

Venezuela

Services to help reduce the impact of natural disasters including pests and diseases Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No

Early warning and monitoring systems Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Short- and medium-range weather forecasting for agriculture Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No

Climate prediction/forecasting for agriculture Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes No No

Services to help reduce the contributions of agricultural production to global warming No No No No No No No No No No

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Num

b er o

f cou

ntrie

s

Services to help reduce the impact of natural disasters, including pests and diseasesEarly warning and monitoring systemsShort- and medium-range weather forecasting for agricultureClimatic prediction/forecasting for agricultureServices to help reduce the contributions of agricultural production to global warming


Regional projects

Agricultural universities and Schools

Consulting companies

Independent agriculturists

Agro-industrial companies

Governmental organisms:Ministry of AgricultureNational Forest CorporationAgricultural Service and CattlemanNational Institute of Agricultural Investigations

Agricultural associations

Producing companies Agricultural companies USERS

Regional projects

Agricultural universities and Schools

Consulting companies

Independent agriculturists

Agro-industrial companies

Governmental organisms:Ministry of AgricultureNational Forest CorporationAgricultural Service and CattlemanNational Institute of Agricultural Investigations

Agricultural associations

Producing companies Agricultural companies USERS

DIFFUSION OF PRODUCTS

USERS

GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS

MASS MEDIA

AGRICULTURE MINISTRY

COOPERATIVES AND ASSOCIATION OF

AGICULTORES

REGIONAL DIRECTIONS

PRIVATE COMPANIES

PAGE WEB

BULLETINS

ALERTS

WARNINGS

ANALYSISPROCESSING AND

SERV. AGROME.

GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS

MASS MEDIA

AGRICULTURE MINISTRY

COOPERATIVES AND ASSOCIATION OF

AGICULTORES

REGIONAL DIRECTIONS

PRIVATE COMPANIES

PAGE WEB PAGE WEB

BULLETINS

BULLETINS

ALERTS

WARNINGS

ALERTS

WARNINGS

ANALYSISPROCESSING AND

SERV. AGROME.


CHALLENGES AND NEEDS IN SOUTH AMERICA


1. Technology transfer, capacity building, technical guidelines andtraining

2. Assist Member governance in the development of national disaster risk reduction plans

3. Cost-benefit analysis of hydro-meteorological services in disaster risk reduction

4. Education, training and public outreach programs in disaster risk reduction

5. Strengthening strategic partnerships with national and regional stakeholders

6. Carry out studies of modeling of risks and potential impacts

7. Foment the use of the systems of alert early and of the predictions of the climate and the time like strategy of adaptation to the climatic change.


8. To Improve Alert Early

• To Strengthen Seasonal Presage

• To generate Scenarios of sectoral Risk

• To Optimize the Systems of Information

• To connect System of Alert early with the Governments to level of Planning, sectoral action and answer



Fuente: Adaptado de Lugo, A. Sress and Ecosystems (1978).

EJEMPLOS DE EFECTOS POSITIVOS Y NEGATIVOS DE DETERMINADOS FENOMENOS NATURALES PARA ACTIVIDADES DE DESARROLLO

Fenómenos Naturales Efectos Positivos Efectos Negativos Huracanes Transportan agua, nutrientes y sedimentos Elimina estructuras. Baja temperatura Disminuye el ritmo de los procesos, da lugar a

mejor conservación y almacenamiento. El congelamiento puede ser mortal.

Alta temperatura Acelera los procesos, particularmente la respiración .

Puede ser mortal; reduce la diversidad de especies.

Lluvias fuertes Inician eventos fenológicos en desiertos; disminuye la salinidad en ambientes costeros; redistribuye nutrientes.

Eliminan estructuras y pueden causar otros esfuerzos tales como inundaciones, las cuales afectan el intercambio de gas entre sedimentos de tierras húmedas

Incendio Hace más disponibles los nutrientes y la humedad; reduce la competencia.

Elimina estructuras.

Salinidad Da lugar a mejorar productividad bruta en manglares hasta concentraciones de agua de mar.

A valores mayores que 35 panes por 1000, aumenta las tasas de respiración y disminuye las tasas de producción neta de transpiración.

Erupciones volcánicas Dan lugar a mejorar nutrientes y humedad, y a ambientes competitivos.

Sofocan y matan plantas y animales.

Inundaciones Eliminan la competencia; inician eventos fenológicos.

Aumentan los costos de mantenimiento de energía; temporalmente disminuyen la cantidad de flora y fauna y de especies individuales.

Flujo de agua Transporta nutrientes y oxígeno; elimina tóxicos; redistribuye larvas.

Elimina estructuras; da lugar a altos costos de mantenimiento de energía para la biota.


Natural Phenomena Positive Effects Negative Effects Hurricanes They transport water, nutritious and silts It eliminates structures. Low temperature It diminishes the rhythm of the processes,

he/she gives place to better conservation and storage.

The freezing can be mortal.

High temperature It accelerates the processes, particularly the breathing.

It can be mortal; it reduces the diversity of species.

Strong rains They begin events Phenological in deserts; it diminishes the salinity in coastal atmospheres; it redistributes nutritious.

They eliminate structures and they can cause other such efforts as floods, which affect the exchange of gas among silts of humid lands

Fire He/she makes more available the nutrients and the humidity; it reduces the competition.

It eliminates structures.

Salinity He/she gives place to improve gross productivity in swamps until concentrations of seawater.

To more values that 35 breads for 1000, it increases the breathing rates and it diminishes the rates of net production of perspiration.

Volcanic eruptions They give place to improve nutritious and humidity, and to competitive atmospheres.

They suffocate and they kill plants and animals.

Floods They eliminate the competition; they begin events Phenological.

The costs of energy maintenance increase; temporarily they diminish the quantity of flora and fauna and of individual species.

Flow of water It transports nutritious and oxygen; it eliminates toxic; it redistributes grubs.

It eliminates structures; he/she gives place at high costs of energy maintenance for the biota.

Source: Adapted of Lugo, A. Sress and Ecosystems (1978).

EXAMPLES OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF NATURAL DETERMINED PHENOMENA FOR ACTIVITIES OF DEVELOPMENT


• Apoyar la creación de capacidades en materia de alerta temprana para la prevención de los desastres y la atenuación de sus efectos

• Realizar estudios de modelización de riesgos e impactos potenciales• Fomentar el uso de los sistemas de alerta temprana y de las predicciones del

clima y el tiempo como estrategia de adaptación al cambio climático.

Mejorar Alerta TempranaAlerta Temprana• Fortalecer Pronóstico Estacional• Generar Escenarios de Riesgo SECTORIAL• Optimizar los Sistemas de Información• Enlazar Sistema de Alerta temprana con los Gobiernos a nivel de

Planificación, acción sectorial y respuesta

Challenges to coping strategies with agrometeorological ... · Challenges to coping strategies with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties - regional perspectives ... grade that

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