Parties 7

CongressionalCongressional ElectionsElections

POLS 125: Political Parties & ElectionsPOLS 125: Political Parties & Elections

““We would all like to vote for the We would all like to vote for the best man but he is never a best man but he is never a candidate.” candidate.”

— — Frank McKinney “Kin” Hubbard Frank McKinney “Kin” Hubbard

The Electoral The Electoral ConnectionConnection

Getting electedGetting elected Achieving influence in CongressAchieving influence in Congress Making good public policyMaking good public policy

Members of Congress are faced with three primary goals:

“Specifically, I shall conjure up a vision of United States congressmen as single-minded seekers of reelection, see what kinds of activities and goals that implies, and then speculate about how congressmen so motivated are likely to go about building and sustaining legislative institutions and making policy”

—David Mayhew,Congress: The Electoral Connection (1974)

History of Congressional History of Congressional ElectionsElections

Throughout most of Throughout most of U.S. history, U.S. history, congressional congressional elections were elections were “party-“party-centered.”centered.”

In the post-World War In the post-World War II era, campaigns have II era, campaigns have became increasingly became increasingly “candidate-centered.”“candidate-centered.”

The Candidate-Centered The Candidate-Centered CampaignCampaign

Separation of powersSeparation of powers BicameralismBicameralism FederalismFederalism

1. THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK1. THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK

What factors have influenced the rise of the What factors have influenced the rise of the candidate-centered campaign?candidate-centered campaign?

2. POLITICAL CULTURE2. POLITICAL CULTURE

3. CAMPAIGN TECHNOLOGY3. CAMPAIGN TECHNOLOGY

4. POLITICAL CLIMATE4. POLITICAL CLIMATE

PresidentPresident

HouseHouse

SenateSenate

0 4 8 12 16 20 240 4 8 12 16 20 24

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

4 10 16 224 10 16 22

1/3 of the 1/3 of the Senate is Senate is

elected elected every two every two

years by years by voters within voters within

each stateeach state

The entire The entire House is House is

elected every elected every two years by two years by voters within voters within

each each congressional congressional

districtdistrict

The The president is president is

elected elected every four every four

years by the years by the Electoral Electoral

CollegeCollege

Presidential election Presidential election years draw in higher years draw in higher turnout.turnout.

Midterm congressional Midterm congressional elections have lower elections have lower rates of voter turnout.rates of voter turnout.

2 8 14 202 8 14 20

0 6 12 18 240 6 12 18 24

4 10 16 224 10 16 22

SenateSenate1/3 of the 1/3 of the Senate is Senate is

elected elected every two every two

years by years by voters within voters within

each stateeach state

HouseHouse0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24The entire The entire

House is House is elected every elected every two years by two years by voters within voters within

each each congressional congressional

districtdistrict

PresidentPresident0 4 8 12 16 20 240 4 8 12 16 20 24The The

president is president is elected elected

every four every four years by the years by the

Electoral Electoral CollegeCollege

Holding elections in this way—using different timetables and different constituencies— separates the electoral fortunes of members of Congress from one another, and does little to encourage teamwork in campaigning.

2 8 14 202 8 14 20

0 6 12 18 240 6 12 18 24

The institution of Congress supports The institution of Congress supports the electoral needs of its members the electoral needs of its members remarkably well…remarkably well…

Incumbency provides visibilityIncumbency provides visibility Congressional privileges (e.g., franking) Congressional privileges (e.g., franking)

allows members to advertise their issue allows members to advertise their issue positions back homepositions back home

Political power is decentralizedPolitical power is decentralized The seniority system ensures that the The seniority system ensures that the

value of an incumbent appreciates over value of an incumbent appreciates over timetime

The Candidate-Centered The Candidate-Centered CampaignCampaign

Separation of powersSeparation of powers BicameralismBicameralism FederalismFederalism

1. THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK1. THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK

What factors have influenced the rise of the What factors have influenced the rise of the candidate-centered campaign?candidate-centered campaign?

2. POLITICAL CULTURE2. POLITICAL CULTURE

3. CAMPAIGN TECHNOLOGY3. CAMPAIGN TECHNOLOGY

4. POLITICAL CLIMATE4. POLITICAL CLIMATE

Creating an Appealing Creating an Appealing ImageImage

Who are these people?Who are these people?

Richard Tarrant, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006

Jack McMullen,

Republican candidate

for U.S. Senate in

2004

Cris Ericson, Independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006

Craig Hill, Green Party candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006

SANDERS

LEAHY

The Power of The Power of IncumbencyIncumbency

PATRICK LEAHYPATRICK LEAHY (D) was first (D) was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1974. elected to the U.S. Senate in 1974. He is currently serving his 6th term.He is currently serving his 6th term.

BERNIE SANDERSBERNIE SANDERS (I) was elected (I) was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1990. He served in that office in 1990. He served in that office continuously until 2006, when he continuously until 2006, when he was elected to the U.S. Senate.was elected to the U.S. Senate.

PETER WELCH (D)PETER WELCH (D) was elected to was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2006.2006.

The chance of unseating an incumbent member of Congress is slim. The chance of unseating an incumbent member of Congress is slim. Most incumbents run for reelection and most of them win by Most incumbents run for reelection and most of them win by substantial margins. Even in 1994, when an anti-incumbent mood substantial margins. Even in 1994, when an anti-incumbent mood hung in the air, 90% of incumbent House members, and 92% of hung in the air, 90% of incumbent House members, and 92% of incumbent Senators were returned to office.incumbent Senators were returned to office.

In Vermont,In Vermont,

Incumbent House Members Running Incumbent House Members Running for Reelection, 1964-2006for Reelection, 1964-2006

19641966

19681970

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

0

100

200

300

400

0

Number defeated Number reelected

Reelection Rates of House and Reelection Rates of House and Senate Incumbents, 1946-2006Senate Incumbents, 1946-2006

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent reelected

House Senate

Why is incumbency a less Why is incumbency a less powerful force in Senate powerful force in Senate

elections?elections?

“Now thinking about all the federal, state and local offices you are going to vote for this November. Compared to previous years, are you more likely to vote for an incumbent who currently holds an elected office, or are you more likely to vote for the challenger?”

Poll Finds Anti-Poll Finds Anti-Incumbent MoodIncumbent Mood

1994 2006

Incumbent 21% 27

Challenger 48 55

No difference 7 6

No vote 4 2

Not sure 20 10

Incumbency AdvantageIncumbency Advantage

RedistrictingRedistricting Decline of party Decline of party

loyaltyloyalty FamiliarityFamiliarity ExperienceExperience ResourcesResources

Consequences?Consequences? Congress as a whole Congress as a whole

is unpopular, but is unpopular, but incumbents can incumbents can usually weather the usually weather the storm.storm.

What makes a What makes a member of Congress member of Congress popular at home popular at home often involves them often involves them acting contrary to the acting contrary to the national interest.national interest.

Confidence in American Institutions, 2007

Source: CNN/USA Today/ Gallup poll, June 11-44, 2007.

"I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one--a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?"

The militarySmall business

The policeThe church

BanksSupreme CourtPublic schools

Medical systemThe presidencyTelevision news

NewspapersCriminal justice

Organized laborBig business

HMOsCongress

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent responding "great deal" or "quite a lot"

Confidence in government institutions is

comparatively low.

Congressional Approval, 1974-Congressional Approval, 1974-20062006

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?”

1974

19

75

1976

19

78

1986

19

90

1992

19

94

1995

19

96

1997

19

98

1999

20

00

2001

20

02

2003

20

04

2005

20

06

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Pe

rce

nt r

esp

on

din

g "

ap

pro

ve"

Americans are far more

favorable towards their own member

of Congress

Incumbent House Members Running Incumbent House Members Running for Reelection, 1964-2006for Reelection, 1964-2006

19641966

19681970

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

0

100

200

300

400

0

Number defeated Number reelected

Beginning in early 2001, a great tragedy occurred in American politics. It happened quietly, for the most part behind closed doors, and with minimal public input or oversight. The net result of this tragedy is that most voters had their cote rendered nearly meaningless, almost as if it had been stolen from them. Yet the stealing happened without faulty voting equipment, poorly designed ballots, misused voter lists, or campaign finance abuses. It was more like a silent burglar in the middle of the night having his way while American voters slept…

And it was legal.

Not only was it legal, but the two major political parties, their incumbents, and their consultants were participants in the heist.

— Steven Hill, “Behind Closed Doors” (2002)

An Incumbent Protection An Incumbent Protection PlanPlan

Reapportionment, as Defined Reapportionment, as Defined by the U.S. Constitutionby the U.S. Constitution

ARTICLE 1, Section 2, Clause 3:ARTICLE 1, Section 2, Clause 3: Representatives and Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actualThe actual Enumeration shall be madeEnumeration shall be made within three Years after the first within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States,Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law directthey shall by Law direct. The Number of Representatives . The Number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand, but each shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand, but each State shall have at Least one Representative; State shall have at Least one Representative;

The Politics of ApportionmentThe Politics of Apportionment

At first there was 1 member of the House of At first there was 1 member of the House of Representatives for every 30,000 American citizens. Today, Representatives for every 30,000 American citizens. Today, with a current population of 300 million, that ratio has with a current population of 300 million, that ratio has increased to about increased to about 1:690,0001:690,000..

If we were to restore the original ratio between the House of If we were to restore the original ratio between the House of Representatives and their constituents, it would require Representatives and their constituents, it would require increasing the size of the chamber from 435 members increasing the size of the chamber from 435 members (where it has been locked since 1911), to (where it has been locked since 1911), to 10,000 members10,000 members..

But remember, Article I of the U.S. Constitution says that But remember, Article I of the U.S. Constitution says that “The Number of Representatives “The Number of Representatives shall not exceedshall not exceed one for one for every thirty Thousand,” which means there will not be more every thirty Thousand,” which means there will not be more representatives than that, not that there will not be fewer. representatives than that, not that there will not be fewer.

Has political representation been diluted by

population growth?

States that voted for...States that voted for... Electoral Electoral VotesVotes   

Bush in 2000Bush in 2000 20002000 20042004 Gain / Gain / LossLoss

INDIANAINDIANA 1212 1111 -1-1

MISSISSIPPIMISSISSIPPI 77 66 -1-1

OHIOOHIO 2121 2020 -1-1

COLORADOCOLORADO 88 99 +1+1

NEVADANEVADA 44 55 +1+1

NORTH CAROLINANORTH CAROLINA 1414 1515 +1+1

ARIZONAARIZONA 88 1010 +2+2

FLORIDAFLORIDA 2525 2727 +2+2

GEORGIAGEORGIA 1313 1515 +2+2

TEXASTEXAS 3232 3434 +2+2

Net Gain / LossNet Gain / Loss       +8+8

States that voted for...States that voted for... Electoral Electoral VotesVotes   

Gore in 2000Gore in 2000 20002000 20042004 Gain / Gain / LossLoss

NEW YORKNEW YORK 3333 3131 -2-2

PENNSYLVANIAPENNSYLVANIA 2323 2121 -2-2

CONNECTICUTCONNECTICUT 88 77 -1-1

ILLINOISILLINOIS 2222 2121 -1-1

MICHIGANMICHIGAN 1818 1717 -1-1

WISCONSINWISCONSIN 1111 1010 -1-1

CALIFORNIACALIFORNIA 5454 5555 +1+1

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIADISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 22 33 +1+1

Net Gain / LossNet Gain / Loss       -6-6

The Original GerrymanderThe Original Gerrymander

Cracking and PackingCracking and Packing

Redrawing the balanced electoral districts in this Redrawing the balanced electoral districts in this example creates a guaranteed 3-to-1 advantage example creates a guaranteed 3-to-1 advantage in representation for the blue voters as 14 red in representation for the blue voters as 14 red voters are voters are packedpacked into the light green district into the light green district and the remaining 18 are and the remaining 18 are crackedcracked across the 3 across the 3 remaining blue districts.remaining blue districts.

SourceSource: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering

Maptitude® for Maptitude® for RedistrictingRedistricting is is a special edition a special edition of Caliper of Caliper Corporation’s Corporation’s Maptitude GIS for Maptitude GIS for Windows that Windows that includes includes everything you everything you need to build and need to build and analyze analyze redistricting redistricting plans. As you plans. As you assign area assign area features to a features to a district, the district, the district district boundaries are boundaries are redrawn and redrawn and selected selected attributes are attributes are automatically automatically summarized to summarized to reflect the reflect the district’s district’s characteristics characteristics

Redistricting SoftwareRedistricting Software

Racial GerrymanderingRacial Gerrymandering

The unusual “earmuff” shape of the 4th Congressional District of Illinois connects two Hispanic neighborhoods while remaining continuous by narrowly tracing Interstate 294.

SourceSource: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering

“My co

ntributio

n

to modern art!

”

The Fight Over North Carolina’s The Fight Over North Carolina’s 1212thth Congressional District Congressional District

District lines District lines have been have been redrawn several redrawn several times in times in response to legal response to legal challenges.challenges.

Gerrymandering based Gerrymandering based solely on race has been solely on race has been ruled unconstitutional by ruled unconstitutional by the US Supreme Court the US Supreme Court under the Fourteenth under the Fourteenth Amendment, first by Amendment, first by Shaw Shaw v. Renov. Reno (1993) and (1993) and subsequently by subsequently by Miller v. Miller v. JohnsonJohnson (1995). Partisan (1995). Partisan gerrymandering remains gerrymandering remains legal.legal.

The Texas Redistricting CaseThe Texas Redistricting Case

Gerrymandering based Gerrymandering based solely on race has been solely on race has been ruled unconstitutional by ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court. the U.S. Supreme Court. However, partisan However, partisan gerrymandering remains gerrymandering remains legal.legal.

Some argue that Lay’s Some argue that Lay’s plan strengthened the plan strengthened the GOP majority in the House GOP majority in the House by as many as 5 seats.by as many as 5 seats.

Reform in RedistrictingReform in Redistricting

Do these commissions Do these commissions reallyreally create create more competitive elections? No, says more competitive elections? No, says Alan Abramowitz: Alan Abramowitz:

““During the 2002-2002 round of During the 2002-2002 round of redistricting, eight states with a total of redistricting, eight states with a total of 75 House districts used nonpartisan 75 House districts used nonpartisan commissions to redraw their district commissions to redraw their district lines or had their lines drawn by the lines or had their lines drawn by the courts. In the 2002 elections, 9 percent courts. In the 2002 elections, 9 percent of House contests in those states were of House contests in those states were decided by a margin of less than 10 decided by a margin of less than 10 percentage points compared with 8 percentage points compared with 8 percent in all other states. Of the 65 percent in all other states. Of the 65 incumbents who ran for reelection in incumbents who ran for reelection in states who districts were redrawn by the states who districts were redrawn by the courts or nonpartisan commissions, not courts or nonpartisan commissions, not one was defeated.”one was defeated.”

Does Redistricting Produce Does Redistricting Produce Uncompetitive Elections?Uncompetitive Elections?

Scholars argue that “there is little evidence that Scholars argue that “there is little evidence that redistricting generally makes elections less redistricting generally makes elections less competitive.”competitive.”

Why? Because party leaders face a tension Why? Because party leaders face a tension between incumbent protection on the one hand between incumbent protection on the one hand and the growth of the party’s majority on the and the growth of the party’s majority on the other.other.

In Texas, the GOP-controlled legislature shifted In Texas, the GOP-controlled legislature shifted some Republican precincts out of the Tom some Republican precincts out of the Tom DeLay’s district in order to make neighboring DeLay’s district in order to make neighboring districts more Republican. As a result, DeLay’s districts more Republican. As a result, DeLay’s own district is less assured.own district is less assured.

Congressional Approval, 1974-Congressional Approval, 1974-20062006

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?”

1974

19

75

1976

19

78

1986

19

90

1992

19

94

1995

19

96

1997

19

98

1999

20

00

2001

20

02

2003

20

04

2005

20

06

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Pe

rce

nt r

esp

on

din

g "

ap

pro

ve"

Americans are far more

favorable towards their own member

of Congress

Trust in GovernmentTrust in Government

What’s Wrong with Congress?What’s Wrong with Congress?

Congress: It Doesn’t Work. Let’s Congress: It Doesn’t Work. Let’s Fix It.Fix It.

Kick the Bums Out.Kick the Bums Out.

The Best Congress Money Can The Best Congress Money Can Buy.Buy.

Can the public’s distrust of Congress be blamed on Can the public’s distrust of Congress be blamed on the electoral system?the electoral system?

The militaryThe police

The churchBanks

The presidencyMedical syste

Supreme CourtPublic schools

Television newsNewspapers

Criminal justice Organized lab

CongressBig business

HMOs

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Percent responding "great deal" or "quite a lot"

Confidence in American Institutions, 2005

Source: CNN/USA Today/ Gallup poll, May 23-26, 2005.

"I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one--a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?"

Confidence in Congress is

comparatively low.

The Term Limits The Term Limits AmendmentAmendment

Section A.Section A. No person shall serve in the office of No person shall serve in the office of U.S. Representative for more than three terms, but U.S. Representative for more than three terms, but upon ratification of the Term Limits Amendment upon ratification of the Term Limits Amendment no person who has held the office of U.S. no person who has held the office of U.S. Representative or who then holds the office shall Representative or who then holds the office shall serve for more than two additional terms.serve for more than two additional terms.

Section B.Section B. No person shall serve in the office of No person shall serve in the office of U.S. Senator for more than two terms, but upon U.S. Senator for more than two terms, but upon ratification of the Term Limits Amendment no ratification of the Term Limits Amendment no person who has held the office of U.S. Senator or person who has held the office of U.S. Senator or who then holds the office shall serve more than who then holds the office shall serve more than one additional term.one additional term.

Section C.Section C. This article shall have no time limit This article shall have no time limit within which it must be ratified by the legislatures within which it must be ratified by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States.of three-fourths of the several States.

“Thereafter, within the first 100 days of the 104th Congress, we shall bring to the House Floor the following bills, each to be given full and open debate, each to be given a clear and fair vote and each to be immediately available this day for public inspection and scrutiny:

…10. THE CITIZEN LEGISLATURE ACT: A first-ever vote on term limits to replace career politicians with citizen legislators.”

RespondentsRespondents YesYes NoNo

Total sampleTotal sample 61%61% 21%21%

By partyBy party RepublicanRepublican 6464 2828 DemocratDemocrat 6060 3030 IndependentIndependent 5858 3333

By ideologyBy ideology Liberal Liberal 5858 3434 ModerateModerate 6464 3030 Conservative Conservative 6363 2929

By raceBy race White White 6161 3131 BlackBlack 6161 2727

By genderBy gender MenMen 5757 3535 WomenWomen 6363 2727

““Do you think there should Do you think there should be a limit to the numberbe a limit to the numberof times a member ofof times a member of

the House of Representatives the House of Representatives can be elected to a two-can be elected to a two-

year term?”year term?”

Public Opinion Public Opinion on Term Limitson Term Limits

Campaigning

Governing

The Impact of Campaigning on The Impact of Campaigning on GoverningGoverning

““Contemporary campaigning has made contemporary Contemporary campaigning has made contemporary government more difficult. Campaigns raise public government more difficult. Campaigns raise public expectations about government at the same time that they expectations about government at the same time that they lower trust and confidence in government. They emphasize lower trust and confidence in government. They emphasize personal accomplishments in a system designed to curb the personal accomplishments in a system designed to curb the exercise of institutional and political power. They harden policy exercise of institutional and political power. They harden policy positions in a government system that depends on positions in a government system that depends on compromise. They have increasingly brought partisan and compromise. They have increasingly brought partisan and ideological rhetoric into the policy-making arena where a ideological rhetoric into the policy-making arena where a pragmatic approach and quiet diplomacy used to get things pragmatic approach and quiet diplomacy used to get things done. And the candidates have developed a public persona done. And the candidates have developed a public persona that they continue to pursue once in office, a persona that can that they continue to pursue once in office, a persona that can get in the way of behind-the-scenes compromises on major get in the way of behind-the-scenes compromises on major issues with which they have been associated.”issues with which they have been associated.”

——Stephen J. Wayne,Stephen J. Wayne,Is This Any Way to Run a Democratic Election?Is This Any Way to Run a Democratic Election? (2001) (2001)

Some scholars Some scholars claim that claim that Congress Congress rewards rewards

individual individual responsivenessresponsiveness over over collective collective

responsibilityresponsibility. .

Are stronger Are stronger parties the parties the

answer?answer?