Paper2 presentation · 9 I.2 ´ ¥ ´¸É¤¸ ¨ n° µ¦Á ¨ ºÉ° ¥oµ¥Â¦ µ : £µ Á ¬ ¦– ° £µ Á ¬ ¦ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% PrimarySecondary TVET

( )

( )

2556

19 2556

1

?

• World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index

2556 62

148

24 2553

( 24)

WEF 2

1. ( )

2.

2

14

3

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

198

7Q1

198

8Q

419

90

Q4

199

2Q1

199

3Q2

199

4Q

419

96

Q1

1997

Q2

199

8Q

319

99

Q3

200

0Q

320

01Q

320

02Q

320

03Q

320

04Q

320

05Q

320

06

Q3

200

7Q3

200

8Q

320

09

Q3

2010

Q3

2011

Q3

2012

Q3

Quarterly Unemployment Rates

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Hourly Real Wage Index - Constant Composition

Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary

TVET College

Source: NSO Source: NSO and authors’ calculation

•

1.

2.

4

I. (Structural Transformation)

I.1

I.2

• –

• –

I.3

II.

5

6

I.

7

I.1

• 1997 •

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

AgricultureIndustriesServices

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

L productivity Emp Growth GDP

Source: NSO and authors’ calculation Source: NESDB

8

1997

(1) (2) growth-enhancing structural change

Hypothesis: growth-enhancing structural change 1997

0.212 0.162

-0.03

0.1730.048

0.206 0.240

0.105

0.085

0.005

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011

Contribution to Aggregate Labour Productivity Growth

Output price Sector labour productivity L-mkt structural changeInteraction terms Labour Productivity

Source: NSO and authors’ calculation

9

I.2 :–

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%Primary Secondary TVET

College All

10 boom

structural change ?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%Primary Secondary

TVET College

Source: NSO Source: NSO

10

61% 2001 9%

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Real Output Price by Sector

Agriculture Industry Services

Ratio to agg. output price index

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Agriculture

Primary Secondary

baht/hour

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Non-Agriculture

Primary Secondary

baht/hour

Source: NSO, NESDB, and authors’ calculation

11

:

:

cereal yield instrument

-(1) (pull factor) (2) (pull factor) (3) (push factor)

o ( )

(4) (shocks) 1997 GFC 2008 2011

- ? +dQ̂ = f( , , , )

+ -sQ̂ = f( , , , )

12

structural change

-20%0%

20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%180%200%220%

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

( / )Primary Secondary

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Change in Labour Productivity

Agriculture Non-agri

%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Change in PriceAgriculture Non-agri

%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Change in Labour Share

Agriculture Non-agri

%

Source: NSO, NESDB, and authors’ calculation

13

Economic shocks

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18Number of quarters after initial shock

Crisis 1997 Crisis 2008 Flood 2011

• shocks

3 shocks

Source: Authors’ calculation

14

I.2 : –

“ ”

, ,

2556 63% ( 63% 30%)

informal employment?

social protection skill development

–

(1)

(2) /

15

1997

shocks

• 50% self-employed•

misallocation

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

High_unemp High_informal High_formal

% of high-educated labour force

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Age <=24 Age 25-39Age 40-54 Age 55-65

% of each group labour force ( )High-educated labour force

Source: NSO and authors’ calculation Source: NSO and authors’ calculation

growth-enhancing structural change

1.

2.

3.

“ / ” (misallocation)

4. (taste)

16

17

I.3

( ) 4

o = f( , , )

oo marginal product of labour

4

1. ( )

(shifts in relative skill supplies)

2. ( )

(skill-biased technological change)

3. ( )

(capital intensity)

4. (residual) TFP –

Wage decomposition from 1986 to 1996

18

1997

complement

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Primary Secondary TVET CollegeSchooling Group

supply shift SBTC capital intensity actual

Primary Secondary TVET CollegeChanges in relative supplies 2.2% 1.0% -4.9% -2.8%Skill-biased technical change 2.9% -18.0% -9.9% 19.4%Capital intensity 23.8% 23.8% 23.8% 23.8%Residual change 28.6% 10.5% 14.5% 5.6%Total wage change 57.5% 17.2% 23.5% 45.9%

Wage decomposition from 2001 to 2011

19

10

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Primary Secondary TVET CollegeSchooling Group

supply shift SBTC capital intensity actual

Primary Secondary TVET CollegeChanges in relative supplies 12.5% 1.4% -7.8% -7.4%Skill-biased technological change 6.7% -5.1% 5.6% -2.7%Capital intensity -5.6% -5.6% -5.6% -5.6%Residual change 5.8% -2.2% -7.3% 0.7%Total wage change 19.4% -11.4% -15.0% -15.0%

• Residual

( )

( )

( quantity & quality skill mismatch )

20

( ) :

(1)

21

high-income

( )

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

% Gross Enrolment Ratio for Tertiary Education

Source: Edstats

Malaysia

Thailand

Korea

• ( )

22

PISA 2009

. 19% 80%

Source: Lathapipat (2011) and authors’ calculation using PISA 2009

Thailand

<=level 1b level 1a level 2 >=level 30.0

02.0

04.0

06

200 300 400 500 600 700PISA Reading Score

10% 33% 38%

19%

South Korea

level 1a level 1b level 2 level 4level 3

80%

23

PISA

PISA

Source: Poapongsakorn et al (2011)

24

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

10th 50th 90th

Percentile 10th, 50th, 90th

10 wage dispersion

Source: Lathapipat (2010), NSO, and author’s calculation

25

( ) <=24 25-39

9,102 16,653

Self-employed ( ) 10,394 12,927

4,946 6,305

Self-employed ( ) 2,908 4,713

2011

skill mismatch

• self-employed

• self-employed

Source: NSO, SES, authors’ calculation

Rate of Returns to Educational Level in 2011(Constant Composition)

10%17%

30%27%

63%

83%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

High school TVET College

Self-employed Employee (formal)

Relative to no educated worker

26

( ) :

(2) –

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Primary Secondary TVET College

Average working hours

Primary Secondary TVET College

1986-1996 50.3 53.6 49.0 44.72001-2012 50.0 52.3 51.6 48.5% Change -0.5 -2.5 5.3 8.5

•

27

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

25%

27%

29%

31%

33%

35%

37%

39%

41%

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Compensation of Employee

Corporation Profits(RHS)

% of national income

Source: NESDB

• ?•

( )

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

private_equipment

private_constuction

% of GDP

Source: NESDB

Private Investment ExpenditureCompensation of Employee and Corporation Profits

:

1.

(1)

(2)

(3) –

2.

3. (wage bargaining taste)

misallocation

28

29

II.

(1) (2) misallocation

( )

/

–

Wage

Informal

Unemp

30

31

( )

/

–

-

( crowding-in effects)

- /

-

/

/

-

- incentives / constraints / opportunities

-

(formalise informality)

self-employed employer

-

• Structural change growth-enhancing

transformation 1997

••

misallocation

•taste

misallocation

• 4

32

33