Page 1 www.HyWays.de HyWays We have to act NOW for a sustainable future! Conclusions and recommendations from the HyWays project The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
Page 1 HyWays We have to act NOW for a sustainable future! Conclusions and recommendations from the HyWays project The European Hydrogen.
Dec 16, 2015
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Page 1
www.HyWays.de
HyWays
We have to act NOW fora sustainable future!
Conclusions and recommendations from the HyWays project
The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapMain message
Hydrogen has the potential to reduce total CO2 emissions from road transport in a cost effective way by over 50% in 2050…
…if we start to act now!
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www.HyWays.de
HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapWhy do we need hydrogen?
Emission reduction
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www.HyWays.de
HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
Annual CO2 emissions from European road transport
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Mto
ns/
aEmission reduction potential
Base line (-30% CO2)
Modest policy support,modest learning
High policy support,high learning
Very high support,high learning
Hydrogen scenarios:
Over 50% reduction of emissions from road transport by 2050.
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
Cost effective emission reduction
Marginal abatement costs (MAC) for CO2 emission reduction (Europe)
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
MA
C (
€/t
on C
O2)
Baseline
Modest support,modest learning
High support, highlearning
Very high support,high learning
Hydrogen scenarios:
Costs of CO2 emission reduction decrease by 4% in 2030 and 15% by 2050.
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapPollutant emissions
2000
2020
2040
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FR DE GR IT NL NO FI ES PL UK
Countries
NOx emissions* compared to baseline
* High support, high learning scenario
• Short-to-medium term improvementof air quality.
• 70% reduction by 2050.
• Even higher reductions possibleat local level (cities).2010
2030
2050
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapWhy do we need hydrogen?
Emission reductionEconomy and employment
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapImpact on economic growth
• Strengthening Europe’s position as manufacturerof cars and energy equipment.
• Decreasing vulnerability to oil price shocks and structural high oil prices.
• Small positive GDP effects in most countries from 2030 onwards.
The transition to hydrogen offers economic opportunities:
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapImpact on employment
• 25% of all vehicles are produced in Europe. (10% of total GDP in EU27)
• Dilemma for large automotive countries: Drastic GDP and job losses if these countries
lose market shares due to a late market entry.
Uncertainties about success of H2 cars and risk of losses due to investments in premature H2 infrastructure and car development.
• Less drastic for other countries; by following the "right strategies“, additional wins in GDP and employment can be obtained.
Employment 2030
Different scenarios: Number of employees:
Scenarios 1 + 2
less than 1000less than 500010000
5000075000100000
less than -5000-10000
-50000-75000-100000
Scenario 3(positive values)
1 Structural identity
1
(positive values)2 Optimistic (policy) scenario
2
(negative values)
3
3 Worst case scenario
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapWhy do we need hydrogen?
Emission reductionEconomy and employmentSecurity of supply
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapSecurity of supply
• Hydrogen de-couples energy demand from resources (like electricity).
• Diversified hydrogen production mix leads to substantial improvement in security of supply.
Total oil consumption of road transport decreases by 40% until 2050 (80% hydrogen vehicles).
2020 2030 2040 20500
1000
2000
3000
4000
PJ /
a
Solar HT
Biomass
Wind
Grid
Nuclear
Natural gas
Coal
By-product
Hydrogen production mix (Scenario: Visions of the national stakeholders)
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapWhy do we need hydrogen?
Emission reductionEconomy and employmentSecurity of supplyRenewable energy and energy saving
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
Hydrogen & renewable energy
2020 2030 2040 2050
Solar HT
Biomass
Wind
Nuclear
Coal +natural gas
By-product
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
PJ /
a
Hydrogen production mix (Scenario: 80% emission reduction, failure of CCS technology)
Opportunity to increase the share of renewable energy (beyond biomass) in transport.
Link between fuel and power by electrolysis augments take-up of renewables into the grid.
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapHydrogen & energy efficiency
End use efficiency is increased by hydrogen and fuel cell technology.
E.g., hydrogen from biomass (used in fuel cell vehicles) allows for substantial efficiency gains over biofuels.
Efficiency of hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles is significantly higher than of internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid ICE vehicles.
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapWhy do we need hydrogen?
Emission reductionEconomy and employmentSecurity of supplyRenewable energy and energy saving
But what do we need now?Immediate action!
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
We have to act now for a sustainable future!
Scenario “Modest policy support, modest learning”, WETO oil price
Scenario “High policy support, fast learning”, +1000 €/vehicle acceptable, WETO oil price +20$/bbl
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E C
ash
flo
w (
M€)
SA
VIN
GS
A
DD
. CO
ST
S
: Total Cash FlowFuel+Fleet cash flow "Business as usual costsMINUS H2 scenario costs"
Cash flow over time
High introduction rates of vehicles and build-up rate of infrastructure are needed for an industrially relevant growth.
A slow market penetration of hydrogen is unacceptable from an investor’s point of view.
Immediate action is needed to overcome the initial barriers.
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapWhy do we need hydrogen?
Emission reductionEconomy and employmentSecurity of supplyRenewable energy and energy saving
But what do we need now?Immediate action!A hydrogen-specific support scheme
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
A European hydrogen-specific support framework is needed.
• Innovation support: Increase R&D budgets at EU and member state level for hydrogen technologies. Suggested European level: 80 M€/year.
• Market support: Implement a hydrogen specific deployment support framework at member state level. Starting point: equalise costs (€ct/km) for road transport
(e.g. through tax incentives). Total costs of deployment support scheme: ~180 M€/year.
• Early markets: Create markets utilising the advantages of hydrogen applications. E.g. city centre access regulations or procurement of zero
emission vehicles within governmental services.
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapWhy do we need hydrogen?
Emission reductionEconomy and employmentSecurity of supplyRenewable energy and energy saving
But what do we need now?Immediate action!A hydrogen-specific support schemeA public private partnership
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
A public-private partnership (PPP) is needed.
• Production of a small series of vehicles has started but has to be scaled up further soon.
• In the early commercialisation phase, technology-specific deployment support and R&D must go hand-in-hand. A European public private partnership
between industry and the EC, such as a Joint Technology Initiative (JTI), is the most suitable framework to meet these conditions.
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www.HyWays.de
HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapWhy do we need hydrogen?
Emission reductionEconomy and employmentSecurity of supplyRenewable energy and energy saving
But what do we need now?Immediate action!A hydrogen-specific support schemeA public private partnership
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HyWaysThe European Hydrogen Energy RoadmapAcknowledgement
HyWays is an integrated project, co-funded by research institutes, industry, national agencies and by the European Commission (EC) under the 6th Framework Programme [contract No 502596].
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HyWays
Want to know more?
An executive summary and the full version of the HyWays
Road Map and Action Plan are available for download at www.HyWays.de
The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
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