Page 1 Harvest 2015: What Can We Expect Charles R. Hurburgh Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering September 15, 2015.

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Harvest 2015: What Can We Expect

Charles R. HurburghAgricultural and Biosystems Engineering

September 15, 2015

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Production (2015 as of 9/01/2015)

Yield (bu/a) Billion bu_____

2014 2015 2014 2015

CornUSA 171.0 167.5 14.22 13.58

Iowa 178 181 2.37 2.41

SoybeansUSA 47.8 47.1 3.97 3.94

Iowa 51.5 53.0 0.51 0.53page 7

Stocks (June 1) (Billion Bushels)

2014 2015

Corn

USA 3.85 4.45

Iowa 0.73 0.88 (~55% farm)

Soybeans

USA 0.41 0.63

Iowa 0.094 0.126 (~40% farm)

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Storage Space (all grains)(billion bushels)

On Farm Off Farm_____

2014 2015 2014 2015

USA 13.0 13.2 10.4 10.5

Iowa 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.4

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Storage vs Crop, Iowa

2014 2015Production 2.95 2.94 (corn and soybeans)

On hand 0.82 1.01 (high – June)------- -------

3.77 3.95 (billion bushels)

Storage 3.50 3.50Balance 0.27 0.45

Grain likely outside for a short time

Usage = 200 – 240 MM Bu/month

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Corn Quality –Scenarios for 2015

• Warm and Wet– Large kernels, medium/low test weight, wet corn– Fair to poor storage properties – Maybe vomitoxin?

• Cool and Wet– Large kernels, medium/low test weight, 20%+MC– Poor storage properties– Vomitoxin more likely

• Warm and Dry?!:– Large kernels, medium/low test weight

Corn Quality Trends - Example

Plots are usually ~ 2 lbs/bu heavier than field run, ~ 2 % pts drier

Year Yield Test Weight Moisture Protein Oil Starch Densitybu/a lb/bu % % % % gm/cc

15%M as-is 15%M 15%M 15%M 15%M 15%M

2009 194.1 54.0 25.6 7.6 3.6 61.1 1.2442010 184.9 57.6 14.3 6.7 3.5 61.6 1.2552011 207.6 58.7 16.8 7.2 3.6 61.2 1.2712012 152.0 60.1 16.5 8.2 3.4 60.6 1.2872013 201.3 57.0 19.8 6.9 3.5 61.3 1.2542014 191.8 55.0 20.3 6.6 3.6 61.5 1.250

4 strip trial tests, 20-40 hybrids/location; Adair, Black Hawk, Bremer, Palo Alto counties in Iowa

Soybean Quality –Scenarios for 2015• Warm and Wet

– Large beans, slow drying plants, good protein– Probably wetter beans/mixed beans at first.

• Cool and Wet:– Large beans, wetter beans, composition?- Beans rewet to 14-15%, slow to dry after that.

• Warm and Dry: – Large beans, high protein, normal moisture– Some later harvest fields.

More harvest beans this year?

Soybean Quality Trends - Example

4 strip trial tests, 20-40 varieties/locationAdair, Black Hawk, Bremer, Palo Alto counties in Iowa

Year Yield Moisture Protein Oil Fiber Sumbu/ac % % % % %13%M as-is 13%M 13%M 13%M 13%M

2009 58.7 13.7 34.7 18.5 4.9 53.22010 58.7 10.5 35.5 18.5 4.8 54.02011 65.9 10.5 34.2 18.4 4.9 52.62012 52.5 8.7 33.9 19.9 4.8 53.82013 53.6 11.7 35.3 19.4 4.7 54.62014 60.3 12.7 34.5 18.8 4.9 53.3

Harvest 2015 – preparations

• Clean bins, aeration, dryers.• Scout/evaluate before harvest.

– Mold (especially if storm damage)– Lodging (Lots of disease pressure)– Variability; breakage and FM if low TW.

• Corn – soybean balance may be hard to estimate.– More soybeans will complicate end of harvest

rush .

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Harvest Basics

– Uniform drying and cooling (as best possible)– Adequate aeration (0.1 + cfm/bu)– Cooling cycle every 10-15 degree change– Get below 40F as fast as possible– Take out the center core of fines immediately– Regular inspection, temperature monitoring

Temperature change is important (3 degrees)

– Stay within temperature-moisture guidelines

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Corn Harvest 2015 - complexities

• 2014 carryover corn in fair condition• Do not mix 2015 and 2014 in the same bin

– Neither mixing nor layering will work• Rotate with 2015 crop or keep separate• First 2 weeks +/- : Submit daily composite

samples. Can be out of dryer.– Check grading accuracy– Mycotoxin issue?– Check Test Weight increase

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Web-Based Training on Grain Storage

•Dryeration: http://cai.iastate.edu/extension/dryeration/index.html •Fan Performance: http://cai.iastate.edu/extension/fanperformance/index.html •Grain Aeration: http://cai.iastate.edu/extension/grainaeration/index.html  or go to www.iowagrain.org; link from there.page 19

And Now There is FSMA!• Animal Food to publish 9/17/2015• Feed mills, ethanol plants, etc. must have:

– CGMP– Hazard Analysis/Qualified Person– Verified Preventive Control Plan

• Handling and Storage: Exempt - above only• Supplier verification required – you are a risk for

users.• Lots of materials will be available.

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Creating a food safety/quality management system plan for a grain elevator. GEAPS Three hour Workshop

Iowa State University Extension and Outreach

Workshop Outline Brief Introduction: Dr. Charles Hurburgh

Time The impact of the Food Safety Modernization Act on grain handling. Instructor: Dr. Angela Shaw 30 Creating Food Safety Plans - QMS Principles/structure related to FSMA - Writing objectives and procedures that can be documented, and validated Instructor(s): 30 Class exercise; designing a food safety hazard control procedure Instructor: Connie Hardy 30 --Break— 20 Cross Compliance: Other procedures-driven market or regulatory needs that can be met simultaneously. Occupational Safety plans Biosecurity/bioterror plans Environmental compliance plans. Pest control plans/sanitation Instructor: Dr. Gretchen Mosher 30 Economics: How to figure costs and benefits of quality management systems. Instructor:

GEAPS 530Quality Management Systems for Bulk Materials Handling Systems

Created and Taught By:The Iowa Grain Quality InitiativeIowa State University Extension

Charles R. Hurburgh, Jr., ProfessorGretchen A. Mosher, Assistant Professor

Howard E. Shepherd, Program Coordinator

User’s Guide to ISO 22000 Food Safety Management System for the Grain Handling, Processing, Milling, and Baking IndustriesCompiled for the Food Safety, Quality, Regulatory (FSQR) Committee of AACC International 

by Charles Hurburgh, Jennifer Robinson, and Scott Jensen

Sample text…

User’s Guide to ISO 22000 Food Safety Management System for the Grain Handling, Processing, Milling, and Baking IndustriesCompiled for the Food Safety, Quality, Regulatory (FSQR) Committee of AACC International 

by Charles Hurburgh, Jennifer Robinson, and Scott Jensen

Special callout sections…

Food Safety Checklist ExamplePart 1: Food Safety Program

Questions Yes No N/A Documents, filenames

Food Safety Program

1 A documented food safety program that incorporates Quality Management Program has been implemented

2 The operation has designated someone to implement and oversee the food safety programName______________________________________

3 All food safety documentation is located in one central location.Where:_____________________________________

4 Records are kept for two years in an orderly manner.        

5 A map of the facility and grounds is available.        

Download in MS Word @

INTRODUCTION TO FOOD SAFETY PREVENTIVE CONTROLS COURSE

Chapter 1

File: FSPCA Ch01 Intro 2014 11 06

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Food Safety Preventive Controls Alliance (FSPCA) – Animal Food 2 Subcommittee (AFSC) ............................................................................................................................... iv 3 

Hazard Analysis and Preventive Controls for Animal Foods Course 4 Agenda  viii 5 

Chapter 1: Introduction to Course ........................................................................................................... 1 6 

Chapter 2: Food Safety Plan Overview .................................................................................................... TBD 7 

Chapter 3: Current Good Manufacturing Practices and Other Prerequisite 8 Programs  TBD 9 

Chapter 4: Biological Food Safety Hazards 10 

Chapter 5: Chemical and Physical Food Safety Hazards ......................................................................... TBD 11 

Chapter 6: Preliminary Steps in Developing a Food Safety Plan ............................................................ TBD 12 

Chapter 7: Hazard Analysis and Preventive Controls Determination..................................................... TBD 13 

Chapter 8: Process Preventive Controls .................................................................................................. TBD 14 

Chapter 9: Sanitation Preventive Controls .............................................................................................. TBD 15 

Chapter 10: Supplier Preventive Controls ............................................................................................... TBD 16 

Chapter 11: Recall Plan ............................................................................................................................ TBD 17 

Chapter 12: Verification and Validation Procedures............................................................................... TBD 18 Chapter 13: Recordkeeping Procedures .................................................................................................. TBD 19 Chapter 14: Regulation Overview – cGMP and Hazard Analysis and Risk-20 Based Preventive Controls for ........................................................................................................Animal Food  TBD 21 Chapter 15: Resources for Food Safety Plans [May need to move after 22 Hazard Analysis]  TBD 23 

Chapter 16: Putting it All Together? Resources for Food Safety Plans ................................................... TBD 24 

Appendix 1: FDA Regulation on CGMPs and Hazard Analysis and Risk-25 based Preventive Controls for Animal Food (FSMA Sec. 103)  .......................................... A1-1 26 

Appendix 2: Food Safety Plan Worksheets ............................................................................................. A2-1 27 

Appendix 3: Food Safety Plan for Dry Animal Food Example ................................................................. A3-1 28 

Appendix 4: Food Safety Plan for Liquid Animal Food Example ............................................................. A4-1 29 

Appendix 5: Food Safety Plan for Minerals, Vitamins, & Micro-30 Ingredients in Animal Food Example .................................................................................. A5-1 31 

Appendix 6: Food Safety Plan for Animal Co-products in Animal Food 32 Example................................................................................................................................ A6-1 33 

Appendix 7: Food Safety Plan for Plant Co-products in Animal Food 34 Example  A7-1 35 

Consider having someone take this training when it is offered (next 1-2 yrs.)

ISU and others will have certified instructors.

Summary

• Wet grain; lower and more variable test weight possible. Other risks depend on weather from here on. Watch out for harvest on warm days.

• Carryover 2014 will create complexities. Do not mix years. Separate by high-low test weight if you can. Composite samples!

• Some grain will be outside. Mix of corn and soybeans at harvest may shift somewhat.

• Basic grain science principles still apply.

Where To Find Us…

Analytical ProgramsQuality Management

Systems