P²-ROTECT – Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats

P2ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats

Space Debris Event DayGraz, August 12th, 2011

P²-ROTECT – Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats

P²-ROTECT – Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats

Jeffrey Apeldoorn et al.

P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 2

Overview of the PresentationOverview of the Presentation


Overview of PresentationOverview of Presentation

Context Project Project Consortium & Personal Introduction Protection Solutions against Space Debris Conclusions & Next Steps Contact details & Questions


Context ProjectContext Project

600.000 objects

larger than 1 cm

150 Million objects

larger than 1 mm6 Billion objects

larger than 100 µm


P²-ROTECT contextP²-ROTECT context

Evolution of catalogued space debris (CSD) since 1957 (Source

NASA)

Uncatalogued space debris (USD) are only known via flux measurements. Their number is estimated to some billions.

What can we do to improve space assets security from

on-orbit collisions ?

1. Evaluate risk versus orbits 2. Investigate solutions (predict CSD, protect from

USD, remove risky SD)3. Recommend solutions versus orbits by evaluating

risk reduction


P²-ROTECT General InfoP²-ROTECT General Info

P²-ROTECT = Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats

Project within the EU‘s 7th Framework Programme in the activity “Strengthening of space foundations”.

Project had its kick-off in February 2011 Total Budget ~3 Million Euro of which EU contributes ~2 Million Euro Total duration of 30 months To minimize the impact of the ever increasing threat of Space

Debris, different strategies to enhance mission protection will be established by a European consortium composed in a multi-disciplinary manner, involving research organizations and academia, on the one side and industrial companies and SME on the other.


P²-ROTECT objectivesP²-ROTECT objectives

Objective 1: Provide a quantitative tool to evaluate the vulnerability of space missions in relation to SD collisions.

Objective 2: Quantify the vulnerability of specific current space missions of interest for Europe.

Objective 3: Analyse core techniques to reduce space missions’ vulnerability (prediction, protection, removal), based on the analysis of the effects of on-orbit collisions (with both trackable and untrackable debris) while identifying mitigating solutions.

Objective 4: Propose recommendations for risk-minimising architectures leading to reduced vulnerability of space assets specific to mission types.

Objective 5: Quantify the vulnerability reduction for specific future space missions of interest for Europe using proposed recommendations.

Objective 6: Disseminate results towards space community and provide a cross-fertilisation of results with the ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme.

Evaluate risk versus orbits

Investigate solutions

Recommend solutions versus orbits by evaluating risk reduction


P²-ROTECT Consortium & Personal IntroductionP²-ROTECT Consortium & Personal Introduction


P²-ROTECT ConsortiumP²-ROTECT Consortium

Onera: Vulnerability evaluation, better prediction of collisions.OHB-System AG: LEO/MEO/GEO missions knowledge, better

protection, active debris removal for LEO.TAS-I: LEO/MEO/GEO missions knowledge, better protection,

active debris removal for MEO/GEO.Tubitak: Better protection, missions operations, dissemination.EMI: Physical component damage evaluation.TUBS: Debris environment knowledge (MASTER model).TELINT: Contribution to dissemination

Research organisms, Academia, Industry & SME

ONE31%

OHB24%

TAS-I18%

EMI12%

TBU8%

TUBS6%

TEL1%


OHB-System AG, FactsOHB-System AG, Facts

OHB-System AG, subsidiary of OHB AG

OHB-System AG is a subsidiary of OHB AG The group total revenues in 2010 were 460 million Euro As of now, the OHB AG Group has approx. 2,250 employees

(Year-end 2009: 1,550) OHB AG is listed as No. 3 in the European manufacturer market, and No.

8 among the overall European space markets

(Source: Space News, August 3, 2009). OHB-System AG is the leading German satellite manufacturer in the

launch mass range up to 800 kg in LEO and MEO, and for a launch mass of up to 3200 kg for GEO satellites.

ESA has included OHB-System AG into the definition as

“Large Systems Integrator” OHB-System AG is today the third satellite prime in Europe OHB-System’s headquarters at the Bremen Technology Park is home to

400 highly qualified engineers and scientists Major contracts won recently include the Galileo project and Meteosat Third Generation (MTG)


Personal IntroductionPersonal Introduction

Jeffrey Apeldoorn, M.Sc. Born in the Netherlands, currently working in Germany Studied Aerospace Engineering at Delft, University of Technology Employer: since nov 2007 at OHB-System AG in Bremen, Germany

(Largest German Space company)in the Space System Studies Directorate (Phase 0/A/B)

ISU: SSP09 at NASA Ames and Class Representative Project Manager in OHB for:

P²-ROTECT (EC project) Scenario Studies for Human Spaceflight & Exploration (ESA project)


Which problems exist with space debris?Which problems exist with space debris?


Two different problems existTwo different problems exist

Untrackable space debris

1. Collision probability : high, depends on orbits, repeatedly

2. Collision severity : medium to high

3. Collision predictability : no

Trackable space debris

1. Collision probability : low, depends on orbits

2. Collision severity : catastrophic

3. Collision predictability : yes, but fuel consumption for manoeuvres


Possible solutions must be traded-off (1/3)Possible solutions must be traded-off (1/3)

Untrackable space debris

1. Collision probability : high, depends on orbits, repeatedly

2. Collision severity : medium to high

3. Collision predictability : no

Trackable space debris

1. Collision probability : low, depends on orbits

2. Collision severity : catastrophic

3. Collision predictability : yes, but fuel consumption for manoeuvres

Desired : one index to quantify the best solutions to reduce risk depending on

missions.



Environment situation

Physical damage to components

over time

Functional performance of

components over time


mission over time

Fuel consumption due to collision avoidance manœuvres over time

Untrackable debrisTrackable debris

+ Space Surveillance Networkknowledge



Business As Usualenvironment

situation

Future environment

situation


mission over time


mission over time

Vulnerability index

SEVERITY of performance degradation

-

For one space mission


Protection solutions against Space DebrisProtection solutions against Space Debris


Possible solutions to be investigatedPossible solutions to be investigated

Increase quality of prediction Reduce useless manoeuvres

Increase protection Reduce collision severity

Action on environment Reduce collision probability


Increase quality of predictionIncrease quality of prediction

Increase quality of prediction Reduce useless manoeuvres

Reduction of detection threshold for trackable objects Increased prediction reliability Increased prediction accuracy Decreased prediction delay

600.000 objects

larger than 1 cm


Increase protection (1/2) Increase protection (1/2)

Increase protection Reduce collision severity

Improvement of spacecraft protection by innovative shielding: e.g. the multi layer solution for the ISS

Improvement of spacecraft protection by enhanced redundancy and design:Building in more redundancy with vital components, re-locating vulnerable components to different areas of the satellite (Calculations with ESABASE2)

Spacecraft self-protection: attitude control by S/C itself such that impacts have less impact


Increase protection (2/2) Increase protection (2/2)

Increase protection Reduce the risk of hits or even avoid them

Fractionated mission design: divide the Mission functionality over multiple satellites (e.g. MTG)

Improved mission operations: adaptation of the mission planning -> avoidance manoeuvres

Maintenance and repair of satellites in orbit by a servicing mission


By Hyper Velocity Impact tests!

Testing of Shielding MethodsTesting of Shielding Methods

But how do we verify new innovative shielding methods?


Impact SimulationsImpact Simulations

Impact Simulations The Ernst-Mach-Institute, EMI, is the

Fraunhofer-Institute for high-speed dynamics. Hypervelocity impact research Space asset vulnerability modeling Shielding for manned space vehicles Impact detection payloads Accelerator research

-> Now time for Videos……


Possible actions on environmentPossible actions on environment

Action on environment Reduce collision probability

By letting the spacecraft autonomously go into another orbit at their mission end. (End-of-Life Debris Mitigation Measures)

Graveyard orbit De-orbit & (partly) burning up

Or, by removing the End-of-Life satellites with a robotic Orbital Transfer Vehicle (Active de-orbiting or re-orbiting)


Conclusions & Next StepsConclusions & Next Steps


P²-ROTECT will provide recommendations for improving space mission survivability.

Recommendations for improving space debris knowledge Recommendations for improving mission and spacecraft design

(Case studies: Sentinel-1 in LEO, Galileo in MEO and MTG in GEO). Recommendations for improving mission planning Establishment of a Vulnerability Index creation Tool (ATLAS) to track

influence of proposed design/mission changes

Conclusions & Next StepsConclusions & Next Steps


Project Contact DetailsProject Contact Details

P²-ROTECT Website:http://www.p2rotect-fp7.eu/index.html


Contact DetailsContact Details

Questions?Mr. Jeffrey Apeldoorn, M.Sc.

OHB-System AGTel: +49 (0)421 2020 9722Fax: +49 (0)421 2020 700

new email: [email protected]

P²-ROTECT – Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats

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