P 2 ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820 Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats 63 rd International Astronautical Congress Naples,

P2ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats

63rd International Astronautical CongressNaples, 5 October 2012

Towards a European Collision Warning and Avoidance CentreTowards a European Collision Warning and Avoidance Centre

BURAK YAGLIOGLU

Dr. ELİF KUTDEMİR, Dr. EGEMEN IMRE, ÖZGÜN YILMAZ

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OutlineOutline

Introduction

Current Conditions and Standardized Operations

The European Collision Warning Avoidance Centre (ECWAC)

Conclusions

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IntroductionIntroduction

Space assets becoming more critical for many aspects of the daily life

More small scale operators to launch space assets

Protection of the space assets Prevention is better than cure

Well protected big players: Not enough! Any collision in space > faster cascade > everyone loses

How to enable small players to protect themselves?

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Environmental CharacteristicsEnvironmental Characteristics

LEO MEO GEO

Object Population

Characteristics†

Very high density of both trackable (~5%, > 5cm.)

and non trackable objects

Low density of trackable (>0.4 m.) and non trackable objects

High density of trackable (>1 m.) objects, stable

regions are more populated

Conjunction Characteristics

†

Impact velocities associated with

conjunctions are high and collision risk is higher around polar regions

Relatively the lowest risk of conjunction with

objects in space

Impact velocities associated with

conjunctions are relatively lower

* However, it has to be taken into account in radiation shielding design and in the operations phase.† Based on the analysis performed using the ESA MASTER 2009 software.

Good predictionHigh risk

Catastrophic results

Reasonable prediction

Very low riskCatastrophic

results??

OK predictionLow risk

Catastrophic results??

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Overview of Collision Avoidance Operations

Overview of Collision Avoidance Operations

Rough Assessment

Fine Assessment

Manoeuvre Planning

Manoeuvre Decision

Post Manoeuvre Activity

JSpOC

(CSMs, TLE data)

RADAR

(RADAR data for chaser)

Flight Dynamic

s(Precise orbit data

for target satellite)

PoC > PoC threshold

PoC > PoC threshold

PoC > PoC threshold (Platform and Mission Constraints/Considerations

)

Operator

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Main ProblemMain Problem

While big operators are able to implement standard procedures with access to:

• all sorts of data, • tools and sensors

to check for possible risks and refine the data with further sensor measurements,

most other operators have varying degrees of awareness and capabilities regarding conjunction prediction, analysis and collision avoidance manoeuvring.

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ECWACECWAC

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ECWACECWAC

More Ground and Space

Based Sensors

Consultancy in S/C and Mission

Design

New Service

Better Collision Risk

Indicators

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ECWACECWAC

ServiceAvailable

to Everyone

ServiceAvailable

to Everyone

ServiceAvailable

to Everyone

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Proposed ImprovementsProposed Improvements

Better Risk Analysis Data (For Everyone) Improved the observation sensor network for better quality Standardized risk analysis tools through a common access

point

Better and Standardized Manoeuvre Planning Better understanding of the conjunction information Standardized tools for manoeuvre planning Standardized conjunction analysis tools to be made available

during the manoeuvre planning stage

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Proposed ImprovementsProposed Improvements

Collision Avoidance as a Part of Routine Operations A well established operational procedure with all sorts of

necesssary information The measures should be initiated as early as possible The state of the conjunction event chain should be well

documented and communicated

Collision Avoidance as a Part of Design Enhance the flexibility of mission concept to account for the

risk reduction operations Establish a telemetry based system diagram including

troubleshooting and problem indicators

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ConclusionsConclusions

Space debris problem is NOT going away!

Small operators are posing a significant threat for everyone (including themselves!)

Europe can lead the way by extending SSA: ECWAC!

Through ECWAC, more awareness, more information and more tools to be made available: At design stage During regular operations When handling a conjunction event

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QUESTIONSQUESTIONS

GRAZIE!

[email protected]