“Overview of the state-of-the-art, typical components and applications and the roadmap of solar heat in Germany up to 2030“ Jan Michael Knaack, Senior.

“Overview of the state-of-the-art, typical components and applications and the roadmap of solar heat in Germany up to 2030“

Jan Michael Knaack, Senior Project Manager

German Solar Industry Association Warsaw, 19. March 2013

German Solar Industry Association

TASK To represent the German solar industry

in the solar

thermal and photovoltaic sector

VISION A global sustainable energy supply

provided by solar (renewable) energy

ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice,

public relations, market observation,

standardization

EXPERIENCE Active in the solar energy

sector since more than 25 years

MEMBERS More than 850 solar producers,

suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other

companies active in the solar business

HEADQUARTERS Berlin

A Popular FallacyWho would have thought this was the case?

Of 100 people asked, the figures below show how many people thought that most energy was used in these areas...

Actual consumption in %

Car Warm water

Warm water S

ourc

e of

da

ta

CarHeatingElectricity

Electricity

Don‘t know

Solar thermal technology

Unglazed collectors

Sidney tube (heatpipe)

CPC tubes

Standard tubes

Solar air collectors

Vacuum flat plate collector (with spacer)

Standard flat plate collector

Stainless steel absorbers

Vacuum tube collectorsFlat-plate collectors

Synthetic absorbers

Design of Solar Collectors

Various Collector TypesVacuum tube collector

Source of picture: Paradigma

Solar air collectors

Source of picture : Grammer

Flat plate collector

Source of picture : Nau

Swimming pool absorber

Source of picture : SUNSET

Sputtered selective absorber<<

Ultrasonic or laser welding

>>

<< Collector Design

Heat meter, flow meter, insulated tubes… >> >>

©

Blu

ete

c

© Wagner & Co

© W

ag

ner

&

Co

© Aeroline tube systems

© Resol

Technology: production, components, system design

Storage Types for Single-Family Houses (EFH)

Service water storage 150 - 1000 litres

Pic

ture

sourc

e:

Nau

Buffer storage500 - 1500 litres

Pic

ture

sourc

e:

Nau

Stratified storage500 - 3000 litres

Pic

ture

sourc

e:

Saile

r

application

Facade

Roof mounting Roof integration/solar roof

Elevation

Possible Installations for Collectors

Domestic Hot Water Production

Typical data for Germany

(4-person household)

Forced circulation

5-6m² collector area

300-400 l. solar storage tank

End consumer costs

~ €4,000 – 5,000

Condensing boileroli, gasnew: wood pelletsrarely: elec. power

Flat-plate or vacuum tube collector

Solar station with controls and circulation pump

Waterstorage

tank

Cold water inlet

Market share in Germany: 50%

Image: Paradigma

Image: Schüco

Solar Thermal Combined System

Combined solar thermal

system

for DHW and auxiliary room

heating

8-15 m² collector area

500-1,000 litres combined

storage

Forced circulation system

End consumer costs ~

€10,000 – €15,000

Solar station with controls andcirculation pump

Boiler

Dom. hot water

storage

Buffer storage Cold water inlet

Flat-plate or vacuum tube collector

Heatingcircuits

Market share in Germany: 50%

Combi storage

Image: Roto Frank

Image: Paradigma

13

131313

Sonnenhaus Lorenz KumhausenConstruction in 2002 – Area 170 m² - Construction costs 350,000 € incl. Cellar + garage

Heat need: 33 kWh/m²a Primary energy need: 14 kWh/m²aSolart thermal: 68 m² (45°) Solar storage tank: 11 m³

solar coverageDHW+ Heating

77 %

Source: Sonnenhaus Institut

Energy autonomy at home – 100 % coverage of heat and power with intelligent renewable energies

www.das-energieautrake-haus.de

Heated area: 162 m² , heating need 12,000 kWh/a, primary energy need 1500 kWh / a = 9 kWh/m²a, electricity need 2000 kWh / a

Price:

363.000 €

(2011)

Attractive components for large systems: Facade integrated collectors

© Schüco© Schüco

Solar Thermal Market 2012

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Evacuated tube

Flate Plate

Market Data Solar Thermal in Germany 2012*Newly installed collector area 1,17 Mio sqmTotal installed collector area 16,5 Mio sqmGrowth 2011/2012 -9,3%No. of total systems installed 1.8 Mio

* preliminary(Source: BDH, BSW-Solar)01/2013

Annual

ly in

stal

led

colle

ctor

are

a [1

00

0 s

qm]

1995: Market intentive programme commences and covers 30-40 % of investment cost Limits: Budgets:ca. 30 Mio € for 4 years

2001: Great demand, reduction of grants to cover only 10-15 % of invenstment cost

2002: Market crashes down 40%

2006: Boom in demand, due to high oil and gas prices. Budget ca.120 Mio €/a,. Grants further reduced2007: Market crash

1999: Budget increased to 60 Mio € per annum

Beginning of the 90‘s: some of the German states provide grants for solar thermal systemsProblems: Limited budgets, different criteria for allocation of grants

Since mid 2007: Increased support for systems 2009: building obligations introduced and budget increase2010: support is stopped, market crashes2011 /2012: increase of support per m²

Development of support for ST in Germany

Current support policies in Germany

Existing buildings (Market Incentive Programme MAP) Only support of combined DHW + heating systems with 90

€ / m² minimum of 1500 € / solar key mark approved collectors

For extenisions of existing ST systems 45 € / m² DHW systems are only supported in big building > 3 or

more appartments & commercial buildings > 300 m² heated space

Boni for change of heating systems, very efficient pumps, very well insulated houses, connection to district heating systems

Support for process heat + solar cooling systems of SME of up to 50 % of investment costs

New Buildings: Renewable Heat Obligation (EEWärmeG)New buildings must comply with very well insulation or use a

renewable heat source (e.G. solar thermal, heat pump, pellets, etc.) to cover parts of the energy use

Industry roadmap for solar heat 2030

http://www.solarwirtschaft.de/en/start/english-news.html

“Business as usual“scenario

BAU

“Forced expansion“scenario

FE

“Breakthrough“scenario

DB

• Increase in fossil fuel prices by 3-5 % p.a.

• Support as before

• Increase in fossil fuel prices by 8% p.a.

• Increased support during the period 2014 – 2023

• In conclusion: self-sustaining growth effect

• Comprehensive implementation of the actions according to the roadmap

• Comprehensive implementation of the actions according tothe roadmap

• Significant change in general conditions:

o Increase in global ecological problems

o Increase in fossil fuel prices by 11 % p.a.

o Equal ranking of support for solar heat

Implementation of FE scenario is the central focus of the solar heat roadmap 2012

The Six Strategic Focal Topics

1. Full focus on the expansion of the established segments in the area segment single-family and two-family houses

2. Development of further market segments by acquiring additional competence (multi family houses, solar homes, etc.)

3. Committed entry to the solar heat future market of industrial process heat up to 100°C (better understanding of market)

4. Consolidation of competitive capability through cost-efficient system solutions and active development of the structural change (simple systems / specialisation)

5. Prioritisation of research for development of cost-efficient solutions in the established segments and industrial process heat

6. Active communicative organisation of general conditions required for the increase in solar heat (end consumer communication)

The 11 market segments have different strategic meanings

Segment Strategic significance (FE)

2015 2020 20301 Modernisation of heating systems single-family house 2 SW expansion single-family house 3 New construction of single-family houses 4 Modernisation of existing systems in single-family

houses-

5 Solar homes 6 Modernisation of heating systems and extension of

multi-family residences

7 New construction of multi-family residences 8 Non-residential building - 9 Local and district heating -

10 Industrial process heat up to 100°C - 11 Industrial cooling and air conditioning Strategic significance in line with export and breakthrough scenario

The full impact of the technology leap between 2015 and 2020 will only be felt during the 20‘s

Cost reduction up to 2020: -15%Cost reduction up to 2030: -43%

2000 2011 2015 2020 20300 €

1000 €

2000 €

3000 €

4000 €

5000 €

6000 €

7000 €

8000 €

9000 €

10000 €

HW - MO - SK + EBITDA

HW - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA

HW - KO - SK + EBITDA

FGH - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA

FGH - KO - SK + EBITDA

HST - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA

HST - SP+HW - HK

HST - KO - SK + EBITDA

HST - KO - HK

HST = Manufacturer, FGH = Specialised wholesale trade, HW = Trade, KO = Collector, SP+HW = Storage and other HW, MO = Assembly costs, HK = Manufacturing costs, SK + EBITDA = Other costs and operative reult (calculation based on full costs, not based on the difference investment of storage)

TCM-Storage

Synthetic collector,or similar

substructure

Qualification trade Example of a cost and revenue structure of a combination system(11 m2 flat plate collector) without deduction of storage price of a gas-fired condensing boiler; net final priceTechnology leap

Simpler,faster

assembly

Source: ITW, Technomar

The 12 Core Objectives of the RoadmapScenario Forced expansion

2010 2020 2030

New installation of collector surface p.a. [million m2] 1.15 3.6 8.1

Installed collective surface [accumulated, million m2] 14 39 99

Installed solar thermal performance [accumulated, million m²] 9.8 27 69

Solar thermal energy generation p.a. [TWh] 5 14 36

CO2 savings p.a. [million tons] >1 3.2 8.0Share of solar heat in the heat requirements of German households [%] <1% 2.7% 7.7%

Share of solar heat in the heat requirements (up ot 100°C] of German industry [%] 0% 0.4% 10.2%

Installed systems for industrial process heat1 [accumulated] < 100 1,500 28,300

Reduction in system price in housing per kWh [%] 14 43

Domestic sales of the industry sector [billion €] 1.0 2.4 3.0

German value added rate [%] 75 75 75

Export [billion €] 0.5 1.1 1.4

Conclusions

German solar thermal companies can look back on a long experience in solar thermal technology development and applications

So far the main market is the residential sector, but many promising market segments are to become economically interesting.

Precondition is further political willingness to support the technology as well as improvements in the technology, esp. to enable quicker / easier installation.

In the Solar Thermal Roadmap 2030 (2012), the industry has formulated realistic potentials and has started to work on realizing those goals in Germany.

Thank you very much for your attention!

Image: Grammer Solar und Bau