Overview of Global Hardwood Market Rupert Oliver, ITTO/EC Independent Market Monitor for the VPA process
Overview of Global Hardwood Market
Rupert Oliver,
ITTO/EC Independent Market Monitor for the VPA process
Presentation structure
• ITTO FLEGT Independent Market Monitoring • Opportunity to improve quality of hardwood market intelligence
• Keen to work with EU TTFs
• Global hardwood trade• Overview
• Logs
• Sawn
• Plywood
• Market impact factors now and in the future
FLEGT Independent Market Monitoring
• Required in the text of some Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPAs)
• Market impact of Timber Legality Assurance Systems
• Hosted by International Tropical Timber Organisation (ITTO)
• Funded by EC through DG International Cooperation and Development
• Budget: €4.4 million over 5 years (2014-2018)
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IMM Baseline Report
• Considers VPA partner role in global timber trade
• Reviews competitiveness of VPA partner timber in EU market
• Share in different market segments (logs, sawn, decking, plywood, flooring, furniture etc.)
• Systematic analysis of factors impacting on EU trade in timber from VPA countries
IMM Organisation• Centrally co-ordinated team of consultants
• VPA country correspondents to provide improved data on production, trade and investment trends in response to VPA
• EU Survey Team producing regularly updated data and systematic analysis of drivers of change including:• Analysis of timber products imported from VPA countries, their
distribution channels, EU applications, and substitution trends
• Interaction between VPA licensing and forest certification
• Impact of EUTR, public & private sector procurement policies, green building
• Keen to co-operate with EU TTFs
Sample output: “cleaned” data for 440799 “other sawn hardwood”
IMM-EFI “Reproducible analysis and on-line database of world trade flows”
Overview of global hardwood trade
Total value of trade in logs, sawnwood, mouldings/decking, veneer and plywood
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Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas (GTA) & UN COMTRADE
Includes all logs, sawn, mouldings/ decking, veneer, and plywood
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Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
Note: China may have under-reported imports in period 2004-2011
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Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
Note: China may have under-reported exports in period 2004-2011
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Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
* Due to lack of national export data, estimated from imports of partners.
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Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
* Due to lack of national import data, estimated from exports of partners.
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Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas, UN COMTRADE & EU COMEXT.
* Due to lack of national import data, estimated from exports of partners.
Barriers 2004-14
Barriers 2015-24
• Financial crises & fall out
• Product innovation in non-wood materials
• Shift in global economic activity to emerging markets
• Less availability of ‘big name’ tropical hardwoods
• Freight & transport factors
• EU production of panels & new surfacing technologies
• More hardwoods from Europe and N. America
• Global plantation expansion
• Wood modification
• Prefabrication in construction
• Exchange rate movements
Barriers 2004-14
Opportunities 2015-24
• Interior design trends
• Forest certification
• Environmental campaigns
• Marketing initiatives
• Architect and structural engineer’s timber knowledge
• Technical performance standards & CE Marking
• Green building
• Public procurement
• Corporate Social Responsibility
Neutral 2004-14
Opportunities 2015-24
• EU Timber Regulation (EUTR)
• FLEGT VPA process
• GSP and timber import tariffs
• Climate change/carbon footprint
• Hardwood use for higher value structural applications
IMM Baseline Report Systematic Review of Factors Impacting on EU market for timber from VPA countries
Some current issues
• “Weakness” in China and other emerging markets
• “Strong” dollar
• Falling oil price – heading towards $20 per barrel?
• Plant health – high political priority & precautionary approach
• Wood modification – extending hardwood applications
• Engineered hardwood for structural applications
• Life Cycle Assessment, carbon footprint, EPDs, and PEFs
• EUTR, VPA licensing & forest certification29
Thank you!IMM brochure availablewww.itto.int/imm
Rupert Oliver
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