Outlook for Ukraine agriculture: results from AGMEMOD model Guna Salputra (LVAEI) Myrna van Leeuwen (LEI) Oksana Golovnya (KNEU) Serhiy Demyanenko (KNEU) International scientific-methodical conference ”Legal-organizational Forms of Agri-industrial Formations: Status, Prospects and the Impact on Rural Development” Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University (KNEU) Faculty of Economics of Agri-industrial Comlex, Kyiv, November 11-12, 2011
32
Embed
Outlook for Ukraine agriculture: results from AGMEMOD model
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Outlook for Ukraine agriculture: results from AGMEMOD model
Guna Salputra (LVAEI) Myrna van Leeuwen (LEI)Oksana Golovnya (KNEU)
Serhiy Demyanenko (KNEU)
International scientific-methodical conference”Legal-organizational Forms of Agri-industrial Formations: Status, Prospects and the
Impact on Rural Development”Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University (KNEU)
Faculty of Economics of Agri-industrial Comlex, Kyiv, November 11-12, 2011
2
Table of content
• What is AGMEMOD– Objectives and (short) history– Methodology from data handling to output analysis– Data and variables – Structure of the model
• Baseline scenario assumptions
• Ukraine agricultural outlook to 2025 for grains and oilseeds, meat, dairy
Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University
11-12 November 2011
3
AGMEMOD
AGriculture MEmber States MODelling – Partial equilibrium– Dynamic– Recursive – Econometrically estimated– Multi-commodity markets and multi-country
combined model
Incorporates 29 individual country models – 24 EU countries, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia.
Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University
11-12 November 2011
Objectives of AGMEMOD
To make medium term annual projections and simulations for the main European agricultural sectors in order to– establish a reliable baseline and – evaluate measures, programmes and policies in
agriculture at the EU level as well as at the stand-alone country (Member State, Accession Candidate and individual neighbouring countries) level with an emphasis on supply, demand, trade and prices.
Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University
11-12 November 2011
Part I2001-2005
EU15 country modelsOrganisation of project
Part II2006-2008
Part III2009-2010
EU27 combined modelExtension of Partnership
Extension with Turkey
Part III2010-2011
Extention with Russia, UkraineEndogeous world price
EU funds5th FP
EU funds6th FP
History of AGMEMOD
IPTS funds
Nati-onal
funds
Extension Kazakhstan
Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University
11-12 November 2011
6
From data handling to output analysis
• Compile data on commodity supply/demand balances and macroeconomic and policy assumptions
• Model specification for Ukrainian agricultural situation taking into account its specific structures and agricultural and trade policy
• Estimate/calibrate the specified equations with Eviews and transfer into the AGMEMOD GAMS framework