“Implication of 2012 drought for US , Ukraine and global markets: the FAPRI outlook By William H. Meyers and Kateryna Goychuk Howard Cowden Professor and PhD Candidate Agricultural and Applied Economics FAPRI at MU Grain Congress 16 October Kyiv, Ukraine
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“Implication of 2012 drought for US , Ukraine and global markets: the FAPRI outlook
“Implication of 2012 drought for US , Ukraine and global markets: the FAPRI outlook. By William H. Meyers and Kateryna Goychuk Howard Cowden Professor and PhD Candidate Agricultural and Applied Economics FAPRI at MU Grain Congress 16 October Kyiv, Ukraine. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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“Implication of 2012 drought for US , Ukraine and global markets: the
FAPRI outlookBy
William H. Meyers and Kateryna GoychukHoward Cowden Professor and PhD Candidate
Agricultural and Applied EconomicsFAPRI at MU
Grain Congress 16 OctoberKyiv, Ukraine
AgendaWhat is the FAPRI market outlook?
Implications for Grain markets
What is a baseline and how is it used?
It is not a forecastIt is a projection based on a set of reasonable assumptions aboutMacroeconomic outlookTechnology outlook Policy outlook
Ethanol growth slows, Jan 2012
Source: USDA FAPRI-MU baseline, January 2012
So what happened this year?US and Kaz-Rus-Ukr drought greatly changed market outlook
FAPRI updated the baseline in August
Briefly review that change A taste of August 2012 outlook
Not just maize, but wheat too (USDA WASDE Oct 11, 2012)
Production (mil mt)
2011/12 2012/13 change
Coarse Grains 1148.9 1110.1 -38.8 USA 323.7 284.2 -39.5 Rus + Ukr 66.1 56.9 -9.2Wheat 695.0 653.0 -42 Kaz+Rus + Ukr 101.1 64.0 -37.1 USA 54.4 61.8 7.4
U.S. maize farm price projections, Jan 2012
Sources: FAPRI-MU baseline, Jan. 2012; USDA, May 2012; CME Dec. contracts, June 8, 2012